money navigator january 2016
Post on 17-Feb-2018
214 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 1/361st J anuary-2016 to 31st January-2016 www.jhaveritrade.co
F o r P r i v a t e C i r c u l a t i o n O n l y
Issue ThemePg. 1-2
C Y 2 0 1 6
S toc k P ic ker’ s
Mar ke t
Company AnalysisPg. 10-13
Value BuPg. 17-19
V ALU E B U Y
Inspite of better macros in India, investors should get ready for a roller coaster ride in CY2016, after a year consolidation in CY2015, mainly due to external global uncertainties including China and volatile crude oil priceHowever, we believe that if investors play smartly, they can build portfolio for future. Investor should also focus oquality IPOs in CY2016.
CY2 16
CY2016Stock Picker’s Market
Stock Picker ’s Marke
CY :- Calendar Ye
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 2/36
No Hid d en Ch a rg es Ea sy t o Op era te Live Pric e M ovem en t Live Ch a r t
Tra d e in EQ UITY / EQ De rivat ive / C urre nc y De rivat ive / C o m m o d i ty Der iva t ive Tra d ing
Tra c k y o u r D P Ho l d i n g & Ba la n c e G l o b a l Ma rk e t Jh a v e ri Re se a rc h
C o m m o n M a rket Wa tc h for a l l Se g m e nt i .e . BSE, NSE & NSEFO, C D NSE, M C X.
| | |
| |
Compatible withAll Operating Systems
APPLE AN DROID M ICROSOFT
Tra d e Whe ne ver & Whe re veFaster Smarter Simple
Jhaveri Securities Ltd. All Rights Reserved
ll
Give Missed Call : 0 8 0 4 9 3 3 6 1 7 7SMS JeTrade to : 9 6 0 1 3 3 6 6 7 7 | C a ll : 9 92 5 4 2 0 0 0 0
JHAVERI SEC URITIES LTD
301/302, Payal Tower-II, Sayajigunj Vadodara - 390020,Web.: www.jhaveritrade.com I www.jetrade.in
Ph.: + 91 265-3071200
*through group company JCCL.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 3/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
From The MD’s Desk
CY2015 was a remarkable year for global and domestic market as market has seen many unpredictable/unsual trends and
eventswhichhadnotoccurredearlier.
It will bevery interestingto knowthe major events inCY2016 and the trendsof the market. The key events tohappen in India
willbe:
• Budgetin FebruaryCy2016
• Any positivedevelopment inGST Bill and other important reforms toberolled out
• The preparationAssemblyElection inUP2017
• Positive monetraypolicydevelopment
• SouthWest Monsoon
Globally, alleyeswillbe focused on :
• The Fed rate hike in CY2016 (as the Fed has said that the decision to hike the rate will be largely on economic data
dependent. The economic and employment data which will be released from January to March will be very important to
judge the next rate hike by Fed in Cy2016)• Development inEurozoneand the bondbuying program byECB
• PeoplesBank ofChina and its policydecision for China
Any rate hike by Fed in the H1CY16 will have negative effects on emerging market currencies and capital market. Any
appreciationof USD will make India a less attractive investment destination.
However, as faras emerging economiesareconcerned, India remains thefavoriteeconomy amongst FIIs. Webelieve that it
will be very important for Indian market to have reasonable fund allocation by FIIs in CY2016. Surprisingly, the
unprecedented andpleasant eventsprompted DIIS andRetailersto invest four timesmore than their counterpartsFIIs inCY
2015.
It is expected that to remain attractive at global level : 1) The commodity and oil prices should remain at reasonable level
during CY2016. This will ensure low inflation and comfortable Current Account situation. 2) The growth in world economy
should improve to ensure rise in export from India 3) Corporate Earnings should start to improve from here on. 4) Mega
investmentsmade byGovernment in Infrastructure / Railway projects in last oneyear will start yielding results from here on.
Considering the above domestic factors and the global events, we should remain cautiously optimistic for the market. We
believe that theinvestment mantrawill be stock-picker’s market forCY2016.
The investment guru Peter Lynch once said that “ I f you spent thirteen minutes a year on economics, you wasted
ten minutes. We can never know what is going on. So we are bet ter off investing our energy into researching
individual stocks” . Peter Lynch had managed Fideli ty’s Equity Fund for thirteen years and generated returns of
2639% over the period.
Technically, any decisive rise above 7950-7970 range will take the market beyond 8000-8200. Any fall below 7850 – 7790
will have negative impacton themarket.
Kamlesh Jhaveri ( MD )
Jhaveri Securities Ltd.
CY 2016 : A Challenging Year for Global Market
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 4/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
I s s u e T h e m e
C Y 2 0 1 6
S toc k P ic ker’ s
Mar ke t CY2016 - Stock Picker’s Market
1
US Fed rate hike and Indian market
Winter Session of parliament : A repeat of Monsoon session
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points taking the first step away from its near-zero interestrate policy and signaling a “gradual” pace of rate hikes to come in CY16 on account of improvement in the labor market
and other macro economic factors but inflation is yet to return to target level of 2%. This is the first hike in nine years
and sends positive signal about the revival in the world’s largest economy, which would have a corresponding positive
impact on the rest of the world.
Historically, the impact of rate hikes in the US on Emerging Market equities has been mixed and ultimately dependent
on the circumstances at the time.
Although, the past two tightening cycles led to net capital inflows into EMs. While the rate hike does not directly impact
equity fundamentals in India, the implications for equity markets flow through the sentiment and foreign portfolio flowschannel. In this regard India as a significant member of emerging market equities basket will react on the basis of
perceptions for overall Ems.
All in all, Lok Sabha passed 13 Bills while Rajya Sabha passed just 9 Bills in the 20-day winter session, but none of
these were large-ticket Bills. The Bills which were passed included Negotiable Instruments Bill, The Scheduled Castes
and Scheduled Tribes Amendment Bill and The Juvenile Justice (Care and Protection of Children) Bill.
If Lalit Modi controversy and Vyapam scam washed out the Monsoon Session, the Winter Session was washed with
allegations and counter-allegations on issues ranging from ‘intolerance debate’ to ‘National Herald' allegations andothers. Parliament’s winter session is a big disappointment and largely a repeat of Monsoon Session in the context of
passage of critical reforms Bills such as GST Bill, which the country desperately needs to progress.
Clearly, the time is running out for new government to make major reforms happen in the economy. The promised
reforms agenda of BJP government is yet to take place in a major way. Beyond FDI liberalization in a few sectors and
some minor incremental reforms, Modi hasn’t managed to introduce any big-ticket reforms yet.
* Source : Live Mint, U3&6 is special measurement of employment in US
CPI Inflation
CPI Core
Indicators
3.80%
2.30%
2008 Latest date as of
0%
2%
Nov
Nov
Unemployment Rate
Official U-3
U6
7.40%
10.80%
5%
9.90%
Nov
Nov
Select US Macroeconomic Indicators
Indicators 2008 Latest date as of
Median Income ($)
Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production
Credit Card Debt ($ Bn)
Total Consumer Credit ($ Bn)
55,313.00
84%
-10.80%
1004
2650
53,657.00
77%
-1.20%
910
3423
2014
Nov
Nov
Q2 2015
Q2 2015
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 5/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
C Y 2 0 1 6
S toc k P ic ker’ s
Mar ke t
2
CY2016 - Stock Picker’s Market
Support from DIIs on weak FII inflows
CY2016wi ll be a year for stock specific market
Conclusion
With inflows in Mutual Funds scheme, DIIs have invested` 69277.5 Cr. in equity, which was approximately over 3 folds
higher than ` 23842.7 Cr. invested in the previous year. The fall in equity market in recent even sharper if buying from
domestic investors’ ,who infused freshcash flowing in from retail investors,did notcome.
Reasons like subdued earnings growth, weak currency, monsoon woes, rise in crude oil prices, slow reform process, tax
concerns (MAT) and better performance of other emerging markets are responsible behind foreign out flows. Foreign
investors have registered their lowest net buying in Indian equities market in last four years. In 2015, year-to-date, the FIIs
have beennet buyers in equities to the tune of ` 36395.71 Cr. which is 58% lower than the year earlier when they had been
net buyers inequities to the tuneof ̀ 86668.59Cr. ( $14392.19 million) in2014( See Macro EconomicUpdateonpage21. )
However, India is betterplaced than most of itspeers because its external balances have significantly improved since mid-
2013. India is less dependent than several of its peers on commodity exports. Only a small part of India’s sovereign debt isheld by foreigners or is denominated in foreign currency. India’s favorable economic growth outlook makes India relatively
attractive forforeign investorssooneror later.
As far as the current domestic economic situation is concerned , the economy is suffering from serious cyclical and structural
issues. There is an enormous amount of surplus manufacturing capacity, close to 30% according to RBI. Many
infrastructure projects remain stalled. Corporate earnings have stagnated for two years and investors are getting tired of
waiting for faster growth in earnings per share. Exports have also shrunk, month by month. Public sector banks are in
collective trouble, with a vast amountof stickydebt on their balance sheets.
On political front also, some disillusionment with the government/ruling party and not much confidence in their ability toacceleratethepace ofgrowth.
Adecent Budget, a good monsoon, an improvement in consumption demand and an upstick in global growthcould all help to
turn things around. However, sentiment is now a great deal worse than a year before and sentiment is unlikely to fully
recover ina hurry.
The new year brings fresh hope. US seems poised to lead a global economic recovery. Government finances are strong
enough to push critical infrastructure projects. Hopefully, the economy will see productivity gains that can improve the
competitivenessof exporters.
We believe that CY2015 remained a year of consolidation for Indian equity market (Nifty performed -5% on YTD basis and
–13% from its life time high ), after solid performance in CY2014, as global uncertainty along with weak corporate earnings
weigh on the market. Globally, Fed rate hike is long term positive for global markets.As far as market is concerned, there is
no near term trigger for the market except Q3 results (which expect to remain better on weak base ) and hype of budget
expectation. In CY2016, we wish the hope meets with the reality and the corporate earnings fulfill the expectations of the
investorswhohave built position well in advance on expectationof economic revival.Technically, Niftyhasstrongsupport of
7800-7880 and resistanceof 7980-8010.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 6/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
S e c t o r U p d a t e
Indian Plastic Sector
Overview
Plastic Industry has direct correlation with GDPgrowth
Low per capitaconsumption provideenough growth opportunity
The most commonly used polymers (commonly referred to as plastics) are high-density polyethylene (HDPE), low-densitypolyethylene (LDPE), linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), polypropylene (PP), poly vinyl chloride (PVC) and
polystyrene(PS).
The plastic industry is one of the biggest contributors to India’s GDP and is among the fastest-growing sectors in India.
Plastic consumption has grown primarily due to the progressive substitution of traditional materials with plastic variants,
expansionof themiddle-classandtheemergenceofnumerousnewapplications.
The Indian plastic industry is highly fragmented with more than 25,000 processors among whom less than 100 large
processors account fora cumulative 30%shareof theindustry.
Organizedplayershave outpaced fledging ones through constant innovationand niche product launches. The entirechain
in the plastics industry can be classified into manufacturingof polymers and is called upstream and conversion of polymers
into plastic articlesand isknownasdownstream.
The growth of India’s polymer market enjoys a high correlation with the country’s GDP growth. In the last five years, the
growth in country’s per capita plastics consumption outpaced the GDP growth, making India among the world’s fastest
growing polymer market. The industry has expanded at around 8% CAGR over the last five years to reach about 8.5 million
Tonnesperannum(MTPA) in 2013 from sixMTPAin 2008.
On the basis of value added, the share of India’s plastic products industry is about 0.5% of India’s GDP. Typically, in an
emerging market, demand growth for plastics is 2 to 2.5 times the GDP growth. In India, the growth at times was lower than
theGDPgrowth till 2008.Thisgot correctedfacilitated by investment-inducing policies.
According to the Central Institute of Plastics Engineering and Technology, the Indian plastics industry is yet to realize its full
potential. The low level of per capita plastics consumption in India is indicative of the massive growth potential of the
industry.
Comparedwithper capitaconsumption of plastics in the USat 109 kgand China at 45kg, India at 9.7 kg isstill in the nascent
stage. US consumption has reached saturation level, while China’s higher levels of consumption are primarily due to
exports of various plastics-basedproducts.Indiahastheadvantageofhighpopulation andis expected tomaintain high
3
Outlook: Positive
Kg / Person 109 65 45 9.7 32
Per Capita Plastic Products Consumption
Country USA Europe China India Brazil
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 7/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
Indian Plastic Industry : Innovative products, Government Spending on infrastructure and
realty development will drive thegrowth
Increased investment in infrastructure and affordable housing, urbanization and increased consumption of packaged and
white goods will boost demand. Sustained lower oil prices will also improve the cost competitiveness of Asian polymer
producers and delays in incremental Chinese capacity, too, may support the margins. Positive domestic growth trend as
witnessed in the last quarter is likely tocontinueacrossall majorend-use sectors.Polymer demand growth in India was upa
robust12% in H1of FY2016. Sustained loweroilpricesto improve thecost competitivenessofAsianpolymerproducers.
Indian Plastic Sector
4
Source: Company, JSL Research
Plastic Products(By Processes)
Extrusion Injection
MoldingBlow
Molding
Drums,Bottles,
Containers
Moulded,Luggage,
Bottle Caps,Toys
Uses: Pipes,Coated Paper,
Films &Sheets
68%(Domestic
Consumption)
27%(Domestic
Consumption)
5%(Domestic
Consumption)
economic growth. This should propel India’s plastics
consumption to new levels in the coming years. Despite thestrong growth over the last few decades, the domestic market
remains under-penetrated compared with other Asian
developing countries. Current polymer capacities are mostly
under-utilized, with an operating efficiency varying from 66%-
86%, except for PVC, whose production matches with capacity.
Indian plastic processing industry to attract investments
accumulating toUS$10billionover thenext five years
According to industry body Plastics Processors of India, theprocessing sector is expected to grow by 13% in 2016 and is
likely to attract investments accumulating to US$10 billion over
the next five years. Estimates suggest that the Indian plastics
industry will need close to two to three million people by 2020 to
manage thegrowing volumes.
According to the Ministry of State for Chemicals and Fertilizers, the Indian plastics processing industry is expected to grow
by more than 50% to reach ` 1,37,000 Cr. by 2017-18 (from about Rs. 90000 Cr. at the end of FY 2014).This growth will be
propelled by a growth in end-user industries, greater penetration of plastics in various existing applications and an ever
growing rangeof applications.
The Indian plastic industry has set a 20-20-20 vision. It is expected that plastic processing in India might reach the 20 MTPA
by2020 from thecurrent 8.5MTPA.
% 10 12 45 29 1 4
Sector ViseConsumption of PVC
SeweragePlumbing Irrigation Water Supply Others Flexibles
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 8/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
S e c t o r U p d a t e
Indian Plastic Sector
5
Lower RM Prices, high margin
1)Supreme Industries Ltd
2)Nilkamal Ltd.
The weakness inpolymerprices isexpected toextendwellover2016asglobal demandstays weakand this will improve the
profit margins of plastic good makers.Prices of olefins, a group of hydrocarbon compounds, that are building blocks for
many petrochemicals,were lower inOctober 2015.
Ethylene prices fell 35.7% over the yearbut rose15.5% over the month in October 2015 toUS$ 907 per tonne. HDPEprices
were down 23.5% over the year but rose 1.4% over the month to US$ 1189 per tonne. LDPE prices decreased 21.6% over
the yearbut rose1.4%over the month toUS$ 1202per tonne.
The weakness in polymer prices is expected to extend well over 2016 as global demand stays weak. This will improve the
profitmargins of plastic good makerssuch as Supreme Industries, Finolex Industries andNilkamal.The trend is positive for
companieswhichsell branded plasticproductsdirectly toconsumers.
Key Risks : Restrictions on plastic packaging will adversely affect thegrowthof several industries such as FMCG and food
processing
Preferred Stocks
Supreme Industries (SI) is a plastic product manufacturerandthelargest plastic processor in India,processing over 0.28mn
MT annually. Company has four business vertical i.e. Plastic Piping (52%), Packaging Products (21%), Industrial Products
(19%)andConsumerProducts(8%).SIhas22manufacturing plantssituatedacrossIndia.
Company enjoys a significant market share across its business verticals; Plastic Piping (9.48%), Industrial Products (15%)
and Consumer Products (13%). Supreme Industries is the market leader in the Packaging Products segments like XLPE
(50%), EPE Foam (36%), Cap Cell (30%) andAir Bubble Film (18%). SI’ssalesand PAT have grown at a CAGR 17.8% and
29.2%respectively between FY08-15.
NILK is a market leader in the Material Handling segment, backed by its ability to directly reach a very diverse set of
industrialcustomersthrough 400+ self-employed salespeopleoperating from 50+regional sales officesacrossIndia.
The Moulded Furniture segment of the company enjoys a ~39% market share in its category. NILK has 26 small format
stores along with a strong network of 40+ depots and 1000+ channel partners on a pan India basis, thus enabling it to serve
the remotest rural markets. Its retail store chain “@home”, operates 18 stores across 13 cities covering a retail space of
over3.15 lakhsq. ft.
Supreme Inds.
CompanyName
Nilkamal Ltd
FV (`) CMP
(`) P/E (x) P/BV(x) D/E Ratio (x) ROCE (%) RONW (%) EBITDA (%) CFO (` in Cr)
2
10
668
1260
27.48
66.18
7.01
3.58
0.38
0.53
33.91
12.67
27.71
10.13
14.19
7.98
600.82
150.16
Inputs from Capital Market Magazine , JSL Research , FY15 Figures, CMP @ 23/12/2015
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 9/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
Overview : Size and Structure
Structureof the healthcaredelivery industry
The healthcare delivery industry in India consists of a range of medical practitioners, beginning with grassroots levelphysicians practicing traditional or indigenousforms of medicine (such as Ayurveda), independent practitioners with clinics
of varying sizes andcapabilities,andhospitals that aremulti-disciplinary or specialty focused. Theavailability of specialized
healthcareservices is largelydemographydriven.
CRISIL estimates the size of the Indian healthcare delivery industry at 3,400 million treatments in volume terms and ` 3.8
trillion in valueterms in the year 2014-15. The healthcaredelivery industry in India is estimated to have grown at a CAGR of
approximately 14-15%in value termsover thelast five years.
CRISILexpects the healthcaredeliverymarket togrow at a CAGRof 12.00% and reach ` 6.8 trillion by theyear 2019-2020,
drivenbypopulation growth, rising incomelevels, andincrease in lifestyle-relateddiseases,amongst other factors.
Hospitals can be broadly classified on the basis of the services offered, complexity of ailments treated, and the ownership
model
Revenueand cost structure of HospitalsRevenue Part
Theprimary revenue streams forhospitalsare the IPD andOPD. IPD accounts forapproximately 81.00%of thehealthcare
delivery industry, or ̀ 3.1trillion, in2014-15,while OPD accounts forthe remaining19.00%, or ` 0.7 trillion.While surgeries account for a large portion of revenues for most hospitals, the share of different verticals in total revenues
differs across hospitals, depending on pricing strategies and the emphasis on different specialties. In certain hospitals,
facilities likediagnosticcenters andpharmaciesareoutsourced.
Cost PartInaddition to theoperatingexpenditure that hospitals incur, a keycost factorin a hospital is theinitial capital outlayrequired,
Indian Health Care Delivery Industry
6
Outlook: Positive
Complexity of AilmentTypes of Services Ownership
Primary Care
Secondary Care
General Hospital
Speciality Hospital
Tertiary Care
Quaternary Care
Primary Care
Secondary Care
Tertiary Care
Government-owned & managed
Privately/ Trust - owned & managed
Trust-owned but managed by a
private party
Owned by a private player and
managed by another private player
Hospitals
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 10/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
S e c t o r U p d a t e
7
Indian Health Care Delivery Industry
particularly for land andbuilding development andequipment. Thecapital cost to build a hospital is typically ` 7-8million per
bed.While costs for secondary-care hospitals are lower, high technology and equipment costs keep total capital costs for super
specialty tertiarycare hospitalsat thehigherend. The useof importedequipmentcanfurther driveupequipmentcosts.
Potential to increasebed capacities
India's overall bed density is approximately 7 per 10,000 population below the global median of 27 beds as well as that of
otherdeveloping nations such asBrazil, Malaysia,Vietnam,and Indonesia.
According to WHO's Global Healthcare Expenditure Database, India's total expenditure on healthcare was 4.00% of the
GDP in 2013. The per capita government expenditure on healthcare (at international dollar rate adjusted for PPP) in 2013
was USD 69 in India compared to USD 4,307 in the US, USD 2,766 in the UK, USD 701 in Brazil, and USD 514 in Malaysia.
Lower per capita spend on healthcare in India can also be partially attributed to the relatively low contribution from the
government.
India'spopulation is expected togrow toover 1.42 billionby 2026, from approximately 1.21 billion in 2011. At 7 beds per 10,000 persons, the number of beds in India significantly lags the global median of 27 beds, indicating a
shortfall of nearly2.5millionbeds compared to thecurrent globalmedian.The growthopportunity for thehealthcare delivery
market in India, therefore, is immense
Key Growth Drivers
Government spending on healthcare continues to remain low, allowing private sector to
increasepresence
Increasing population as well as life expectancy to requiregreater health coverage
Rising income levels to makequality healthcareservices more affordable
Hospital Beds
( Per 10,000 Population)
Sector ViseConsumption of PVC Russia China UK USA Brazil Thailand Indonesia India
97 38 29 29 23 21 9 7
Total Healthcare Expendi ture as % of GDP
USA Brazil UK Russia Vietnam China Thailand Malaysia India
3.104.004.605.606.006.50
9.109.70
17.10
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 11/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
Even though healthcare is considered as non-discretionary expense, affordability of quality healthcare facilities remains a
majorconstraint withan estimated 59.00%of households in India having an annual incomeof less than `0.2 million in 2013-14. Growth in household income, and consequently, disposable incomes, is critical to the overall demand growth of the
healthcaredelivery industry in India.
According to CRISIL research the immense opportunity in the industry can be understand from the fact that the share of
households falling in the income bracket of ̀ 0.2-0.5 millionp.a. is expected to increase to 37.50% in 2017-18 from 28.00%
in 2013-14.
Lifestyle-related, NCD exhibit a tendency to increase in tandem with rising income levels. With households earningsexpected to increase, the share of NCDs as a major cause of deaths in India is expected to rise. Consequently, demand for
healthcare services associated with liferelated diseases, such cardiac ailments, oncology anddiabetes, is also expected to
increase.
Fortis Healthcare
Focuson improvingitsprofitabilityboth in thehospitalsandthediagnosticssegments.
Trendofdouble-digitgrowthin average revenue peroperatingbedhasstarted.
Improvedmargin on diagnosticsegment.
Apol lo Hospi tals
Endof current investment cycle leads toa recovery in margins andreturnoncapital employed.
Added 1,300 beds over the past two years and it is planning to add 895 beds by the end of FY16E.
25%annualgrowthin operatingprofitover FY15-18E leads tomarginexpansionof 100bpsto15.20%.
Demand for Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) related healthcare services to increase over
thenext fiveyears
Preferred Stocks
Indian Health Care Delivery Industry
8
Outlook: Positive
Year
Communicable Diseases
Cardiovascular Diseases
Cancer
Other Non Communicable Diseases
Others
2008 2015P 2030P
32
9
28
19
12
25
11
31
21
12
14
15
35
24
12
Year 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E 2015 2016E 2017E
Company Net Sales ( ` in Cr.) EBITDA ( ` in Cr.) Net Profit ( ` in Cr.)
App oll o Hospit als 5178 6321 7552 784 869 1050 339 395 491
YoY Growth (%) 18.10 22.10 19.50 13.10 6.40 20.90 7.30 16.50 24.10
Fortis Health Care 4041 4607 5399 226 300 467 -118 122 238
YoY Growth (%) 13.6 14 17.2 5.8 32.6 55.4 Loss Loss to
Profit 95.4
Source : NHL RHP, JSL Research
Causes of Death in India (%)
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 12/36
Invest small, Dream Big
Go f o r E Q U I T Y S PI
Call Jhaveri Securities Ltd. . . .Your Growth Partner
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 13/36
Garware - Wall Ropes Ltd.
www.jhaveritrade.com10
“Buy” CMP : ` 425 TGT : ` 550Company Basics
BSE ID
NSE Symbol
Group
EQUITY (` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP(` in Cr.)
509557
GARWALLROP
B
21.88
866.53
Financial Basics
FV ( )
EPS ( ) (TTM)
P/E (x) (TTM)
P/BV (x) (TTM)
BETA
RONW (%)
`
`
10.00
19.17
20.66
2.80
1.0730
14.72
Investment Rationale
Share Holding Pattern
Holder's Name
Foreign
Institutions
Promoters
Govt. Holding
Public & Others
Non PromoterCorp. Hold.
% Holding
1.912.26
50.59
0.00
39.11
6.14
ROI : 30%
Valuations
GARWALLROP is trading at `425.We recommend “Buy” with targetpr ice of `550, valuing stock20xFY18E EPS of `27.47.The stockcurrentlytrades at 22.27xof FY16E,18.56x of FY17E and 15.47x of FY18E.
Investment Horizon : 12 to 15 Months
Company Overview
Indian Technical Textile Industry
Strong products portfolio with wide rangeof end users
Garware-WallRopes Ltd. (GWRL), is oneof India's leading players inTechnicalTextiles
with customers and end-users across the world. The company provides application-
focused solutions for various sectors including Deep Sea Fishing, Aquaculture,
Shipping,Agriculture,Sports, Infrastructure, Defence andTransportation.
The company has three integrated manufacturing facilities in Pune, Wai and Silvassa,
where a range of products are produced such as 1) Ropes 2) Nets and Aquaculture
Cages for capturing and breeding fish 3) Nets for Sports such as Tennis and Soccer 4)Insect and Shade Nets for high-value Agriculture 5) Coated Fabrics for Covers, Tarps,
Tents 6) products and solutions for water management, waste management and
erosion-control applications.
Technical Textile sector is one of the most innovative branch of the industry in the world
ranking as one of the five high tech sectors with the greatest potential for
development. The success of technical textiles is primarily due to the creativity,
innovationandversatility in fibers, yarnsandwoven/knitted/non wovenfabrics
Technical textiles are textile materials and products used for their technical
performance and functional properties. Technical textiles are an important part of the
textile industryanditspotential isstill largely untapped in India.
With the increase in disposable income, the consumption of technical textiles is
expected to increase.
Based on past trends of growth and estimated end user segment growth, the Working
Group on Technical Textiles for 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) projected the market size to
reach `
1,58,540 Cr. by 2016-17 at a year-on-year growth rate of 20% during the 12thFiveYearPlan.
GWPL is the largest domestic player in Technical Textile industry that provides
application focus solutions to various traditionalsectors like Fisheries,Aquaculture and
also cater to newandrisingsectors like Sports, Defence andTransportation with its
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 14/36
11
Garware - Wall Ropes Ltd.
www.jhaveritrade.com
wide range of product portfolios. End-usersof Company'sproducts include Fishermen, Shipping Companies, OilDrillers,
Agriculturists, Packers, Transporters, Construction companies, Municipalities, Government Organizations, Clubs,Universities and Manufacturing Plants. The company also provide various product and solution for Water management,
Waste management, erosion control applications.Apart from being a leadingplayer in the domestic market, GWPL has a
dominant shareofmarkets inNorthAmerica, andpartsof EuropeandandAustralia forseveral products.
Apart from the traditional sectors, GWPLhas started focus on innovative business areas like Agriculture, Coated Fabrics (
toprotect goodsduringtransportation)and Defence.
As the growth in defence technical textiles is immense as India imports >20% of its requirement from different countries
such as Israel, Russia and the US. The market size of technical textiles in Indian defence is estimated at is more than~1,300 Cr. GWRLhas developed a strong association withAerial Delivery Research & Development Establishment. The
partnership has seen successful completion of several projects like Flexible Helimats (landing & take-off of helicopter at
oddplaceslikedesert ), tocover radarat sensitive location andspecial type of balloons.
Apart from general product portfolio in Agriculture products, GWRL has developed products like Insect Repellant Nets
through advance extrusion and coating techniques for protection of crops from different insects and also developed
Staking Cord forsupport of high fruit bearing plants from falling off to thegroundbyweightof thefruits.
To counter the slowdown in traditional business, GWRL has developed new business lines in Aquaculture with vastproduct portfolio specially in Cages and Nest that best suits the industry requirement. According to management, GWRL
innovative solutionslaunched in theAquaculturearebecomingslowlyandsteadilysuccessful.
According to Industry estimates, the market for Geo-textiles is projected to reach $8,632.83 Million by 2019, growing with a
CAGR of 10.59% between 2014 and 2019. Asia is the fastest growing market for Geo-textiles with China and India
cumulatively accounting for more than 85% of the total Asian market. Asia-Pacific is projected to gain the major market
size byvalue by2019.
GWRL provides some of the unique solution in Geo Textile for Infrastructure sector. Despite the persistent slowdown in
the domestic infrastructure sector, Company has increased its business in Geo Textile specially in erosion control and
Most of the Raw Material (like High Density Polyethylene ,Polypropylene, Nylon PolyesterYarn) consumed by the GWRL
is crude based derivatives which constitutes ~50% of total expenditure. RM cost as % of sales remains in the range of
45%-47% in last five years.Fallingcrudeoilprice (Brentcrudetouched lowest levelsince 2004) leads toadded
GWRL focuses on new business areas
Growth in Aquacultureindustry and Infrastructure development will benefit to GWRL
landfill lining.
Falling crude oil prices and currency devaluation work well for GWRL
C o m p a n y A n a l y s i s
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 15/36
Garware-Wall Ropes Ltd.
www.jhaveritrade.com12
advantage for GWRL in the form of margin expansion. RM cost as % of Sales fell from 47% in 6MFY15 to 43% in 6M Fy16
leads to EBITDAmargin expansion of 137bps to 11.80% in H2FY16 (v/s 10.43% in H2FY15). Rupee depreciation help s tomaintain top line better due to exports revenue contributes ~49% of top line as company has increased its focus on USA,
Canada and Europe.
GWRL ’s top line grew from `498 Cr. in FY11 to ̀782 Cr. in FY15, CAGR of 12% (absolute growth +57% ) largely on better
performance of itssyntheticcordage segment (mainly includes its Ropes,Twines and Nettings business ), better capacity
utilization and improved itsperformance through innovative productsandexploration of newbusiness segments. In last five
years, company has made its efforts for addition of new customers across the globe to compensate for contraction in
traditionalmarkets. Exports revenue alsogrewfrom ` 338 Cr. inFY14 to ` 385 Cr. inFY15, upby13%YoY.
High cash flow from operations( mainlyon account of higherprofitability and improved working capital efficiencies) leads to
consistent debt payment there by improving ROCE ( grew from 14.40% to 20.06% YoY ) and RONW ( grew from 9.85% to
14.72%YoY). DWRL’s total debt ( Short + long term ) has reduced from ` 71.33 Cr. in FY14 to ` 39.72 Cr. in FY15. Interest
cost has also reduced from `12.83 Cr. in FY14 to ` 10.25 in FY15 there by improves interest coverage ratio to 6.89% in
FY15.(v/s4.04%inFY14)
FinancialAnalysis
Top linegrew 12% CAGR from FY11 to FY 15
Constant debt payment improved return ratios
ROCE RONW Debt / Equity
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.199.85%9.54%9.90%10.82%
12.18% 12.05% 12.31% 0.34
14.14%
0.490.53
0.45
14.72%
20.06%
Source : Company, JSL Research
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 16/36
13
Garware-Wall Ropes Ltd.
www.jhaveritrade.com
C o m p a n y A n a l y s i s
Financial Performance
FY 12
0.56
1.4
1.73
4.71
3.88
1.47
2.9311.13
4.13
12.3
9.59
94
39
FY 13
0.48
1.43
1.79
4.92
4.16
1.55
3.3110.65
4.1
12.32
9.55
88
39
FY 14
0.34
1.4
2
5.54
4.87
1.88
4.059.63
3.89
14.16
9.87
76
37
Debt-Equity Ratio (x)
Current Ratio (x)
Fixed Assets Ratio (x)
Inventory Ratio (x)
Debtors Ratio (x)
Total Asset Turnover Ratio (x)
Interest Cover RatioPBIDTM (%)
APATM (%)
ROCE (%)
RONW (%)
Debtors Velocity (Days)
Creditors Velocity (Days)
FY 15
0.19
1.33
2.17
5.96
4.85
2.23
6.910.57
5.48
20.05
14.72
84
34
Consolidated Key Financials
FY 12
23.71
250.34
395.1
140.33
336.28
205.94
383.9
177.96
573.06
580.82
578.27
3.34
584.65
487
3.46
64.63
48.02
48.61
32
24.0124.02
FY 13
23.71
267.1
382.27
110.43
338.56
205.99
387.4
181.41
563.68
603.05
599.37
5.82
596.18
475.47
48.29
64.21
49.73
47.89
33.41
24.7224.69
FY 14
21.97
275.41
351.59
71.33
350.95
169.57
418.05
248.48
600.07
688.79
684.56
4.1
678.51
546.3
59.01
66.35
53.52
51.96
39.13
26.7626.75
Equity Paid Up
Networth
Capital Employed
Total Debt
Gross Block (Excl. Reval. Res.)
Net Working Capital ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Assets ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Current Liabilities and Provisions ( Incl. Def. Tax)
Total Assets/Liabilities (excl Reval & W.off)
Gross Sales
Net Sales
Other Income
Value Of Output
Cost of Production
Selling Cost
PBIDT
PBDT
PBIT
PBT
PAT after Minority Interest & P/L Associate Company Adjusted PAT
FY 15
21.88
310.6
354.19
39.72
374.16
155.07
501.55
346.47
700.66
786.6
782.23
3.82
789.41
609.83
84.45
83.15
72.9
70.76
60.51
43.1243.26
Consolidated Key Financials
( ` in Cr )
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 17/36
Fundamental Stock Update
www.jhaveritrade.com14
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. CMP: 856 Target : 922 “Accumulate”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
1.00
14.05
18.58
60.61
45.83
981
744.5
216.39
184275.23
Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
14.29
4.81
1.19
67.21
12.5
New Developments
To strengthen the presence in the Hair Oil segment, HUL has signed anagreement with Mosons Group to acquire hair-care brand “Indulekha” for Rs 330crore and further deferred payments based on performance. The deal includestrademarks “Indulekha “and “Vayodha” intellectual property, design and knowhow. HUL wil l also pay "deferred consideration” of 10% on thedomestic turnover of the brands each year for five years starting FY18. Theacquisitionmayalso help HULboost itspresence in theAyurvedicspace.
Delayed commencement of winter will have a bearing on performance of itsPersonal Care portfolio. Nonetheless, the management remains confident of long-term consumption opportunity and continues to see premiumization invarious product categories—e.g., Surf Excel is now the largest brand forHUVR inDetergents.
HUL to acquire“ Indulekha” for ̀ 330Cr.,
Latearrival of winter season may impact Q3FY16 performance
Valuation :
Currently, HINDUNLVR is trading at `856. We recommend “Accumulate” withtarget price of ̀ 922, valuing stock 45x FY17E EPS of ̀ 20.50. The stock currentlytradesat45.30xofFY16E and 41.80 x ofFY17E.
Welspun Syntex Ltd. CMP: 151 Target : 223 “ Buy”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
10
11.37
37.3
13.76
4.2
158.6
91.5
39.24
614.11Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
0.66
1.1
5
70.1
23.16
New Developments
Welspun Group to hive off yarn-spinning business for next generation
Valuation
Welspun Group, is carving out the yarn-spinning business, Welspun Syntex,which will bemanaged bycofounderRajeshMandawewala's elder sonAbhishek.
Mandawewala, group managing director, is in the process of purchasing partner and chairman BK Goenka's stake in Welspun Syntex. This step is part of efforts toensure separation of ownership and management while simultaneously planninga smoothsuccession of thebusiness to thenext generation.
Initially, It was assumed that sons would join fathers' business but that isn't thecase anymore with globalization of businesses and better corporate governancemechanisms
Currently, WELSYNTEX is trading at `151. We recommend “Buy” with targetprice of `223, valuing stock 13xFY17E EPS of `17.18.The stock currently tradesat 10.06xof FY16Eand8.38xof FY17E.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 18/36
15
Fundamental Stock Update
www.jhaveritrade.com
S t o c k U p d a t e
Dewan Housing Finance Ltd. CMP : 235 Target : 368 “Buy”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
10
23.15
158.89
9.98
1.45
284.6
180.5
291.77
6738.36
Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
35.80
1.77
13.87
34.90
13.66
New Developments
Various NBFCs have started to focus on SMEs to tap the high quality borrowersbecause as bank lending declined. All NBFCs are remain optimistic about thefunding scenario. According to a recent Crisil report, loan against propertysegment for SMEs is expected togrow by Rs5 lakh crore by 2018-19 and NBFCsare expected tocontributenearlyhalfof this.
According to Management , DHFL is fairly optimistic of clocking 18-19% growth inits loan book. Thehousing finance major is also hopeful of maintaining thegrowth
rate in the next two years as it goes about strengthening its existing branchnetwork and improving the IT systems to reach further into Tier- 2 and Tier-3markets. DHFL will remain on the low- and middle-income segments and arefocused andwill bea retail focused player.
Focus started on SMEs to tap thehigh quality borrowers
Fairly optimistic for FY16E to achieve 18-19%loan book growth
Valuation
Currently, DHFLis trading at `235. Werecommend“Buy”with targetprice of ̀ 368,valuing stock 1.80xFY17E book value of ̀ 204.The stock currently trades at 1.31xofFY16E and1.15xof FY17E.
Bharat Forge Ltd. CMP : 893 Target : 1150 “ Buy”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
2
29.88
147.94
28.6
5.78
1363
773.05
46.56
19891.6Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
18.45
13.87
7.7
46.74
13.24
New Developments
Bharat Forgeto supply engineparts to Rolls-Royce
Near headwinds continue,long term future bright
Valuation
Bharat Forge signed a long-term agreement with Rolls-Royce for supply of aeroengine parts. The agreement includes supply of critical and high integrity forgedand machined components for a range of aero engines, including the flagshipTrent engine. According to Management, it is strategic intent to play asignificant role in global aerospace supply chain with forged and machinedproducts.
Bharat Forge organized a meeting with analysts to discuss the company’sbusiness plans. The compnay has made to scale-up various segments of itsbusiness and develop new products to double its standalone revenues over the
next five years. FY2016 is likely to be a weak year for the company, led byslowdown in the US truck market and oil & gas industry (~40% of standalonerevenues) but new products/verticals will likely result in 16% CAGR (compoundannualgrowth rate) in revenues in theFY2016-18period.
Currently, BHARATFORG is trading at `893. We recommend “Buy” with targetprice of `1150, valuing stock 25.05xFY17E EPS of `45.9.The stock currentlytradesat25.01xof FY16Eand19.46xofFY17E.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 19/36
Fundamental Stock Update
www.jhaveritrade.com16
Havells India Ltd. CMP : 301 Target : 346 “Buy”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
1.00
5.58
29.11
54.50
10.44
315
235
62.46
18987
Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
26.13
3.56
1.80
61.63
6.87
New Developments
Havells Indiato sell 80% stakein Sylvaniafor 148 Mn.Euro
Havells India has decided to sell 80 stake in Havells Sylvania Malta BV owned byits subsidiary Havells Holdings (HHL) and Havells Exim to Chinese companyFeilo. Feilo which has business of manufacturing and distributing lightingequipment, is the first listed company in China. Havells India will continue to hold20 percent stake in Sylvania. Stake sell in Sylvania fetch for Rs 1,070 crore thatwill be used for expansion of company's portfolio through organic & inorganicroute.
Havells has invested over Rs980crore in Sylvania in 8 years.Company'sbalancesheet will strengthen post Sylvania divestment. Standalone business continuestobeona strong footing andthere isnochangetostandalonebusinessguidance.
Havells India will start manufacturing small domestic appliances from January2016. The company will make appliances like mixer grinder, juicer mixer grinder,electric iron andinductioncook top.
Valuation
Currently, HAVELLS is trading at `301. We recommend “Buy” with target price of `346, valuingstock 31xFY17E EPS of ̀ 11. The stock currently trades at 33.82x of FY16Eand27.36xofFY17E.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. CMP : 4638 Target : 5200 “ Buy”
Financial Basics
FV (`)
EPS (`)
Book Value (`)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
52 Week High (`)
52 Week Low (`)
Equity ( ` in Cr.)
MKT.CAP( ` in Cr.)
5
105.49
805.03
43.98
5.76
4790
3299.75
151.04
140137.94Share Holding Pattern (%)
Foreign
Institutions
Non Prom.
Promoters
Public & Others
22.2
14.44
4.49
56.21
2.67
New Developments
Maruti Suzuki India's minority shareholders vote on Gujarat plant, positivefor Maruti Suzuki India
Expected to double its current manufacturing facility by 2020
Valuation
Initially, the Gujarat plant was proposed tobe owned by Maruti Suzuki but the planwas changed later with its Japanese parent Suzuki Motor Corporationannouncing in January last year that it would invest$488 millionto build theplant.
The Gujarat plant is envisaged to have an installed capacity of 7.5 lakh unitsannually. MSI's two units at Gurgaon and Manesar have a total productioncapacityof 1.5millionunitsannually.
To double its infrastructure and sell 30 lakh units of cars a year, country's largestcarmaker, MarutiSuzuki India and itsdealers areplanning to make an investmentof 30,000 crore. The carmaker has claimed that it is looking forward to sell 20 lakhunits by year 2020, which means that it will be at least 8 to 10 years before Marutireaches its 30 lakh units per yearmark.
Currently, MARUTI is trading at `4638. We recommend “Buy” with target price of `5200, valuing stock 22.46xFY17E EPS of `231.5.The stock currently trades at26.01xof FY16Eand20.03xof FY17E.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 20/36
17
Fundamental Stocks
www.jhaveritrade.com
V ALU E B U Y
V a l u e t o B u y
Auto Ancil lar ies
Suprajit Engg.
Automobi le
Banks
Capital Goods
Cement
Finance
Infrastructure
145 171 111 10% 19% 15% 1 1742 7.23 0.6528.81
Ashok Leyland
M & M
Maruti Suzuki
88
1218
4619
100
1442
4790
43
1092
3251
1%
4%
6%
36%
-1%
22%
92%
-1%
40%
1
5
5
25072
75652
139543
7.19
2.93
5.74
0.51
0.99
0.54
34.96
26.41
43.79
ICICI Bank
Bank of Baroda
City Union Bank
DCB Bank
Havells India
TD Power Sys.
Inox Wind
Carborundum Uni.
Thermax
J K Cements
UltraTech Cem.
Dewan Hsg. Fin.
Repco Home Fin
PTC India Fin
Larsen & Toubro
Adani Ports
Ashoka Bui ldcon
252
160
91
76
301
280
352
183
906
641
2848
216
635
38
1281
252
193
393
229
106
151
316
479
494
200
1318
756
3398
285
785
73
1894
375
221
243
137
85
75
235
247
315
150
827
545
2419
181
560
37
1265
239
123
-8%
-12%
-1%
-40%
19%
-7%
-6%
10%
-2%
3%
-3%
-2%
0%
-7%
-17%
-25%
18%
-17%
13%
-9%
-41%
11%
-1%
-15%
13%
-2%
11%
4%
10%
7%
-9%
-24%
-20%
21%
-24%
-21%
3%
-27%
19%
-30%
NA
8%
-6%
6%
15%
6%
5%
-35%
-14%
-8%
48%
2
2
1
10
1
10
10
1
2
10
10
10
10
10
2
2
5
146490
36820
5470
2157
18797
931
7806
3437
10789
4485
78149
6309
3972
2116
119279
52116
3613
1.73
0.84
2.03
1.4
10.34
1.88
5.61
3.16
5.03
2.77
4.1
1.36
4.89
1.47
2.92
4.84
1.95
12.46
9.77
13.25
11.4
53.93
45.99
21.79
27.78
54.58
36.38
37.66
9.34
29.46
6.16
28.03
21.01
39.48
1.98
1.93
1.2
0
1
0.94
0
0.68
0.77
0.62
0.32
1.28
0.24
2.66
1.27
0.44
0.67
Company Current
Reco
CMP( ` )52 Week
High (`) Low (`) 3M
Absolu te Return (%)
6M 12M
FaceValue
MarketCap
P/E Dividend Yield
%
P/BV
(`) (` in Cr) (x) (x)
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 21/36
Logistics
Pharmaceuticals
Textiles
Miscellaneous
Gateway Dis tr.
Al lcargo Logis tics
VRL Logistics
Torrent Pharma.
Sun Pharma. Inds.
Granules India
Garware-Wall Rop
SRF
Welspun Syntex
Ambika Cotton
Nitin Spinners
T.V. Today Netw.
CARE
Century Ply.
Hitech Plast
Interglobe Aviation
Radico Khaitan
Bharat Forge
Omkar Spl.Chem.
Sadbhav Engg.
Eveready Inds.
Inox Leisure
Prabhat Dairy
Infinite Comp
Liberty Shoes
Torrent Power
Kitex Garments
Ahluwalia Cont r.
J Kumar Infra
H P C L
311
347
407
1406
784
151
391
1187
137
808
67
292
1244
173
199
1193
110
841
210
324
284
236
142
217
198
173
681
266
359
829
459
396
479
1718
1201
164
407
1499
152
1149
108
310
1806
262
210
1234
131
1363
241
385
375
276
169
323
313
200
1074
297
449
991
301
256
261
965
704
71
153
830
92
477
25
165
1094
137
81
849
79
773
129
241
155
139
100
122
183
137
468
188
191
535
-5%
18%
3%
-4%
-12%
31%
35%
6%
23%
2%
17%
28%
9%
9%
110%
NA
31%
-11%
28%
13%
2%
5%
NA
23%
2%
10%
-9%
15%
-4%
7%
-15%
8%
39%
12%
-7%
92%
97%
15%
197%
-10%
27%
68%
-15%
-7%
133%
NA
37%
-23%
35%
16%
-6%
39%
NA
36%
-8%
22%
-26%
38%
21%
18%
-3%
19%
NA
35%
-6%
110%
138%
41%
285%
60%
152%
48%
-15%
17%
83%
NA
30%
-6%
40%
31%
62%
42%
NA
39%
-6%
12%
34%
26%
72%
50%
10
2
10
5
1
1
10
10
10
10
10
5
10
1
10
10
2
2
10
1
5
10
10
10
10
10
1
2
10
10
3386
4378
3715
23785
188707
3162
855
6815
537
475
308
1740
3606
3846
302
42980
1470
19569
432
5553
2062
2273
1387
840
337
8305
3236
1784
2715
28059
3.67
2.29
7.85
9.55
7.37
6.79
2.75
3.01
3.67
1.58
1.84
3.87
10.05
9.92
2.6
25.29
1.79
5.68
2.56
3.61
3.3
3.21
2.17
1.06
2.31
1.27
12.26
5.3
2.27
2.06
21.79
15.92
34.83
18.69
42.78
30.39
20.37
19.74
12.04
9.89
6.85
21.96
48.09
27.61
28.41
33.18
20.16
28.13
14.34
36.62
42.46
40.49
66.38
7.54
19.83
12.49
30
27.85
27.06
21.47
2.25
0.58
0.92
0.8
0.38
0.32
0.77
0.84
0.07
1.73
1.49
0.51
6.35
1.16
0.45
0
0.72
0.89
0.72
0.22
0
0
0.03
0
0.76
0.85
0.18
0
0.47
2.96
Company CurrentReco
CMP( ` )52 Week
High (`) Low (`) 3M
Abs olu te Return (%)
6M 12M
FaceValue
MarketCap
P/E Dividend Yield%
P/BV
(`) (` in Cr) (x) (x)
Hold
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Hold
Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Hold
Hold
CMP as on 16/12/2015
Fundamental Stocks
www.jhaveritrade.com18
V ALU E B U Y
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 22/36
Scheme Name
NAV
(Div)
NAV
(growth)
1 Year
(%) Since Inc
Ax is Focused 25 Fund
BSL MNC Fund
BSL Manufacturin g Equity Fund
DSP BR Focus 25 Fund
Franklin India Prima Plus
Birla sun life 95 fund
DSP BR balanced fu nd
Franklin India balance fundICICI Prudential Balance Advantage fu nd
L&T India Prudence fund
DSP BR Micro Cap Fund
Franklin India Smaller Co Fund
ICICI Prudential Value Discovery Fund
Kotak Emerging Equity Fund
Mirae Asset Emerging B luechip Fund
BSL Tax Relief'96 Fund
Religare Invesco Tax plan
Ax is long term equ it y fund
IDFC tax advantage
Franklin Indi a Taxshield
Franklin India Dynamic PE Ratio Fund
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
Principal Smart Equity Fund
Religare Invesco Dynamic Equ ity Fund
IDFC Dynamic Equit y Fund
HDFC Monthly Income Plan LTP
FT India MIP
IDFC Monthly Income Plan
Reliance Monthl y Income Plan
ICICI Pru MIP-25
Top Equity Diversified Funds
Top Balanced Funds
Mid Cap Funds
Conservative Funds
MIP Funds
Launch
Date
3 Year
(%)
5 Year
(%)
29-Jun-12
27-Dec-99
3-Feb-15
10-Jun-10
29-Sep-94
10-Feb-95
27-May-99
10-Dec-9930-Dec-06
7-Feb-11
14-Jun-07
13-Jan-06
16-Aug-04
30-Mar-07
9-Jul-10
10-Mar-08
29-Dec-06
29-Dec-09
26-Dec-08
10-Apr-99
31-Oct-03
31-Oct-02
16-Dec-10
04-Oct-07
10-Oct-14
26-Dec-03
28-Sep-00
25-Feb-10
12-Jan-04
30-Mar-04
15.46
145.37
9.71
15.06
35.69
136.30
24.01
21.2415.29
17.48
26.07
25.17
31.65
20.09
24.01
133.50
19.53
21.94
15.21
42.62
37.23
20.01
15.00
18.39
10.36
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
17.13
582.33
9.71
16.78
428.85
553.40
108.08
89.1325.89
19.59
42.94
39.24
111.68
25.91
31.02
21.30
34.56
29.99
37.82
411.09
61.89
178.05
16.57
21.36
10.46
35.28
44.20
17.01
34.13
31.28
3.88
21.25
NA
4.46
6.04
3.86
6.33
6.166.94
10.49
22.39
11.92
6.88
10.42
15.49
10.48
6.11
7.30
8.28
5.58
5.33
-1.68
3.50
5.48
1.43
4.38
6.56
7.19
6.63
7.01
14.67
30.79
NA
15.20
19.87
17.11
14.59
17.9914.63
19.92
34.80
32.92
25.12
24.03
31.41
21.83
21.35
26.40
19.44
20.01
10.81
15.58
13.11
16.07
NA
10.46
11.18
10.03
10.70
11.29
NA
22.57
NA
8.97
13.65
11.80
9.93
12.3413.16
NA
21.02
21.28
17.47
15.75
23.13
12.20
13.65
18.80
12.72
13.71
9.09
10.21
10.61
10.15
NA
9.06
9.91
9.80
9.56
10.01
NA
22.57
NA
8.97
13.65
11.80
9.93
12.3413.16
NA
21.02
21.28
17.47
15.75
23.13
12.20
13.65
18.80
12.72
13.71
9.09
10.21
10.61
10.15
NA
9.06
9.91
9.80
9.56
10.01
Top Saving Funds
NAV as on 21/12/2015
19
JSL Top Mutual Fund Picks
www.jhaveritrade.com
M u t u a l F u n d P i c k s
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 23/36
www.jhaveritrade.com20
Selected Macro Economic Indicators
Total Foreign Exchange Reserves (US $ Billion.)
4-Sep 11-Sep 18-Sep 25-Sep 2-Oct 9-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct 6-Nov 13-Nov 20-Nov 27-Nov 4-Dec 11-Dec
354.00
353.00
352.00
351.00
350.00
349.00
348.00
347.00
346.00
349.00
351.38
352.02
349.97
350.80
353.06353.52
351.54
353.63
351.73
352.51 352.36
351.61352.09
352.50
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 14 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15
43345
39470
42416
3472632152
28220
35704
32949 32690 33068
3579433676
32209
Import & Export (in US $ Million)
2 8 8 7 0
2 5 8 9 2
2 6 4 1 8
2 6 0 2 0
2 3 7 7 6
2 1 8 2 6
2 3 8 8 4
2 1 9 9 8
2 2 2 6 3
2 2 2 7 4
2 3 1 4 3
2 1 2 7 2
2 1 7 2 0
Index of Industrial Production (%)12
10
8
64
2
0
-2
-4 -2.65
5.2
3.572.83
4.81
2.48 3.01 2.514.24 4.34
6.26
3.84
9.81
Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 24/36
Consumer Price Index (%)8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
7.236.75
6.3
4.98
5.86
4.12
5.11 5.37 5.17
5.79 5.746.1
4.37 4.35
5.14
6.32
J u l 1 4
A u g 1 4
S e p 1 4
O c t 1 4
N o v 1 4
D e c 1 4
J a n 1 5
F e b 1 5
M a r 1 5
A p r 1 5
M a y 1 5
J u n 1 5
J u l 1 5
A u g 1 5
S e p 1 5
O c t 1 5
FII & DII ( ` in Billion)
M a c r o E c o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s
21
Selected Macro Economic Indicators
www.jhaveritrade.com
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 25/36
www.jhaveritrade.com22
JSL Classroom - Depositary Receipt
American Depositary Receipt (ADR) & Global Deposi try Receipt (GDR)
DifferencebetweenADRand GDR
What are theBenefits of ADRs to US investors?
What arethe Benefits for companies issuing ADRs?
Indian depositary receipt (IDR)
Who can participate?
How are IDRs taxed?
AnAmerican Depositary Receipt (ADR) is a certificate that represents shares of a foreign stock owned and issued by a U.S.bank. The foreign shares are usually held in custody overseas, but the certificates trade in the U.S. Through this system, a
largenumberof foreign-based companiesare actively tradedononeof thethreemajorU.S. equitymarkets.
Followingaresome of Indiancompanieswhich areavailable inADR.Tatamotor, Wipro, ICICIbank, Infosys, HDFC bank, Dr
Reddy labetc.
Global depository receipt (GDR) is compulsory for foreign company to access in any other country’s share market for
dealing in stock But American depository receipt (ADR) is compulsory for non –us companies to trade in stock market of
USA.
Many institutional investorsarerestricted from investing insecurities that donot tradeona U.S. exchange,so listed
ADRsrepresent a way to add international exposure to a portfolio.
Facilitateddiversification into foreign securities.
Allow easy comparison to securities of similar companies as well as access to price and trading information, if listed.
Enhancingcommunicationswithshareholders in theUnited States
Broadeningand diversifyinga company’sUS investorbase
Enhancingthecompany’simageandthat of itsproducts,servicesorsecurities in theUnitedStates.
An IDR is a depository receipt denominated in Indian rupees issued by a domestic depository in India and the underlying
equity shares are secured with a custodian. IDRs will be issued to Indian residents in the same way as domestic shares are
issued. An Indian investor pays in Indian rupees for the IDR whereas a shareholder in the issuer's home country pays in
home currency. The price of the underlying share of the international firm at the foreign exchange and the exchange rate
would play a role indeterminingtheprice ofthe IDR on the domesticexchange.
StandardCharteredPlcis thefirst firm tocome outwith an IDRissue, offering its international sharesthrough IDRs.
Investors eligible to participate in an IDR issue are institutional investors, including FIIs but excluding insurance companies
andventure capital funds retail investorsandnon-Institutional Investors. NRIs canalso participate in theIssue.Commercial
banksmayparticipatesubject toapproval from theRBI.
IDRsare taxed differently fromequityshares. Ifan individual will sell an IDR within a yearofpurchase, the gainswillbe taxed
at income-tax rates.For exitsmade aftera year, thetax rate will be10%without indexation and20%with indexation.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 26/36
23
JSL Classroom - Depositary Receipt
www.jhaveritrade.com
J S L C l a s s r o o m
RelativeStrength Index (RSI)
What is RSI (Relative Strength Index) ? A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine
overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. The relative strength index (RSI), one of the most popular technical
indicators, is computed on the basis of the speed and direction of a stock's price movement. This means that the RSI
indicatoronly measures thestock's internal strength (basedon itspast) andshouldnotbe confusedwith itsrelativestrength,
that iscomparedwith otherstocks, market indices, Sectoral indices etc.
How it is calculated?TheRSI is calculated using a two-step process. First, theaverage gains and lossesare identified fora specified time period.
For instance, if you want to calculate the 14-day RSI— you can consider any time period, but the 14-day RSI is the most
commonly used—suppose the stock went up onnine days and fell on five days. The absolute gains (stock's closingprice on
a given day — closing price on the previous day) on each of these nine days are added up and divided by 14 to get the
average gains. Similarly, the absolute losses on each of the five days are added up and divided by 14 to get the average
losses. Theratio between thesevalues(averagegains / average losses) isknownas relative strength (RS).
RS=AverageUpwardPriceMove /Average DownwardPriceMove
The ratio between these values (average gains / average losses) is known as relative strength (RS). To make sure that the
RSI alwaysmoves between 0 and100, theindicatoris normalized laterbyusing theformula givenbelow:
RSI=100-100/(1+RS)
How to read and concludeRSI ?
Overbought/oversold levels:
The RSI ranges from 0 to 100.An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it
may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that
theasset maybe getting oversold andthereforelikely to becomeundervalued.Below mentionedgraph of NIFTYDaily chart
shows RSI overbought and oversold conditions (RSI value considered in relation to Pricewhich is Indicated by pink marker
at price).
Drawbacks :
The main problemfaced by the short-term traders who use indicators is that the stock may continue to move up despite theindicator hitting the overbought zone, or continue to go down even after the indicator hits the oversold zone. This is the
reason Wilder developed a new concept called 'failure swing' for the RSI. A 'bearish failure swing' occurs when
the RSI enters the overbought zone (goes above the 70 level) and comes below 70 again. In other words, a short
position can be taken only when the RSI cuts the 70 lines from the top. Similarly, a 'bullish failure swing' occurs when
theRSI entersthe oversold zone andcomesout.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 27/36
JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Diversified Large Cap )
www.jhaveritrade.com24
of Ideal Portfolio:
Stock Selection Methodology :
Key Risks :
Theobjective of this portfolio is to generate long term capital appreciationby investing
in concentrated portfolio of large cap and growth oriented mid cap companies. This will help to generate meaningful wealthfor InvestorsfromEquity Market.
Based on various fundamental parameters andvaluationcheck along with certain themes
likeCyclical, Bottom Up,Sector specific, PolicyInitiative/push,Evergreen.
Macroeconomic / political conditionandsystematic risk,corporateperformancerisk
Stock Sector Weights Price** CMP* Target Potential Upside
Large Cap
Maruti Suzuki
KEC International
Bharat Forge
Ultratech Cement
Diwan Housing Finance
Sun Pharma
Inox Wind
Torren Power
State Bank o f India
Axis Bank
Automobi le
Capital Goods
Casting and Forgins
Cement
Housing Finance
Pharma
Power
Power
PSU Banks
Public Bank
7%
5%
8%
7%
8%
7%
8%
8%
7%
7%
4550
136
868
2835
209
252
161
235
228
454
4635
153
902
2810
274
230
200
277
228
454
5200
180
1200
3400
287
368
205
368
325
620
14%
32%
38%
20%
37%
46%
27%
57%
43%
37%
Mid Cap
VRL Logistics
Torrent Pharma
Ashoka Buidcon
Ahluwal i Contracts
Everday Industries
Logistics
Pharma
Infrastructure
Infrastructure
Consumer Non-Durable
5%
8%
5%
5%
5%
381
1555
831
388
185
406
1460
811
363
174
457
1840
1041
488
234
20%
18%
25%
26%
26%
Comparative Portfolio Returns***
Particulars Return Since Inception Particulars Return Since Inception
Ideal Portfolio ReturnLarge Cap (64%)
Mid Cap (36%)
Value Buy (100%)
NiftySensex
CNX Mid Cap
CNX Small Cap
Notes : *CMP as on 28/12/2015., Price ** on Recommendation, ***This i s our f irst port folio recommendation. JSL research
provide Comparative Portfolio Returns in our January issue.
Ob ective
Investment Horizon : 9-12 Months
--
-
-
--
-
-
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 28/36
25
JSL Ideal Portfolio ( Small Cap )
www.jhaveritrade.com
Stock Selection Methodology :
Key Risks :
The aim is to generate long term capital appreciation from a portfolio that is not part of the leading stocks by
market capitalization. The aim is to include and invests in companies that have immense growth potential as they areoperatingona smallerbase.
Based on various valuation parameters and finding out early stage companies
based onsoundbusinessmodel andavailableat cheapvaluation
Small-cap stocks are not tracked closely by market/ equity analysts and that is why the real value of good
small-cap stocks can remain undiscovered for long. This makes investing in them risky. The risk associated with large cap
funds also associated with small cap( see last page).Small companiesarerelatively weak in termsof governance, dividend
policies andprofessionalismof theboard.Thismakes them risky.
Ob ective
Stock Sector Weights CMP* Target Potential Upside
Welspun Syntex
Good Year
KPR Mills
KRBL
Garwale Wall Ropes
Smartlink Network
MPS
MT Educare
Shaily Engineering Plastics
Amb ika Cotton Mil ls Ltd.
Textile
Tyre
Textile
Food Processing
Textile
IT- Hardware
Printing
Education
Capital Goods
Textile
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
155
564
865
225
425
101
808
186
635
934
223
868
1120
360
550
156
1150
220
890
1149
44%
54%
29%
60%
29%
54%
42%
18%
40%
23%
Diversified Equity Portfolio Allocation
Power
Pharma
Banks
Infrastructure
Casting and Forgins
Housing Finance
Automobi le
Cement
Capital Goods
Consumer Non-Durable
Logistics
16%
15%
14%
10%
8%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
5%
Small Cap Portfolio Allocation
Textile
Computer - Hardware
Education
Food Processing
Pharmaceuticals
Printing and Stationery
Retail
Tyre
40%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
10%
Notes : *CMP as on 28/12/2015., Price ** onRecommendation, Price need to change
Investment Horizon : 18 - 24 Months
I d e a l P o r t f o l i o
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 29/36
Monthly Technical Picks - Equity
www.jhaveritrade.com26
BHARTI INFRATEL LTD IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS
We have detected a Symmetrical Continuation Triangle chart patternformed on Bharti Infratel Ltd.The price has broken upward out of aconsolidation period, suggesting a continuation of theprior uptrend.ASymmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bullish) shows two convergingtrendlines as prices reach lower highs and higher lows. Then wellbefore the triangle reaches its apex, the price breaks out above theupper trendline with a noticeable increase in volume, confirming thepattern asa continuation of theprioruptrend.
ADANI PORT
We has detected a "Descending Continuation Triangle" chart pattern
formed on Canara Bank.The increasingly lower highs and constantlows within this pattern tell us that sellers are more aggressive thanbuyers, confirmed by a break down through a support level to signal acontinuation of the prior downtrend. The pattern typically formsbecause a demand for shares is available at a certain price,represented by the lower flat line propping the price up. But when thesupply depletes, the shares quickly break down below the bottomboundary lineand movelower.
We has detected that Average Directional moving index has started
rising in Adani Ports weekly charts. The stock had earlier fallen fromlevels of 372 to 239 Rs and had now bounced backto 268 Rs which is23.8% retracement level of earlier fall and also coincides with 100days EMA will act as strong resistance. We recommend to sell thestock at these levels as this bearish pattern indicates that the stockpricemay fall in thecoming weeks.
We have detected bullish chart pattern formed on IRB InfrastructureDevelopers Ltd. The price has broken upward out of a consolidationperiod, suggesting a continuation of the prior uptrend. The patternbegins during a downtrend as prices create higher highs and lower lows in a broadening pattern. Then the trading range graduallynarrows after the highs peak and the lows start trending upward.When the price breaks upward out of the rectangle boundary lines, itmarksthe resumption of theprioruptrend.
BUY BTWN 400-410 TGT 435 - 440 SL 385
SELL BTWN 220-225 TGT 200-195 SL 235SELL BTWN 240-245 TARGET 228-225 SL 255
BUY BTWN 250-254 Target 290-295 SL 230
CANARA BANK
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 30/36
27
Monthly Technical Outlook - Index
www.jhaveritrade.com
M o n
t h l y T e c h n i c a l O u t l o o k
Nifty
The index opened at 7958, made a high of 7979, made a low of 7551 and closed the month at 7946. Nifty is currently inMedium term downtrend. Nifty is taking support at long term trend line on monthly charts from previous few months. The
current level of trend line support zone is at 7750-7800 on monthly basis and nifty has managed to close above that in
December month also. But Directional moving index had given negative crossover and momentum indicators like RSI at
53.65 in declining phase is indicating that more downside levels can come in coming months if nifty breaks the trend line
support and momentumof sell will riseafter break of previous lowof nifty at 7550. Monthlysupport cluster of Nifty is at 7200-
6700. Bullswillhaveupper handonly ifNifty crosses and manages toclose above 8350onweeklybasis.
Bank Nifty
The index opened at 17456, made a high of 17496, made a low of 16188 and closed the month at 16922. BankNifty iscurrently in Medium term downtrend. It is witnessing retracement of previous bull rally from 8366 to 20907. The Monthly
Fibonacci Retracement comes at 16100-14600 where Banknifty is likely to take supports. Banknifty has managed to close
above 16100 levels from previous four months. But Momentum indicators like RSI at 54.22 in declining phase is indicating
that more downside levels can come in coming months as lower top lower bottom pattern is witnessed in weekly charts.
Momentumof sell will rise afterbreakof previous lowofBankniftyat15762.
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 31/36
Monthly Technical Outlook - Commodity
www.jhaveritrade.com28
Bullion
Energy
Bullion prices dropped as the combination of a firm dollar and weak oil prices left the metal on track for its third consecutiveannual loss. Largely influenced by U.S. monetary policy and dollar flows, the price of bullion dropped in 2015 as someinvestors sold the precious metal to buy assets that pay a yield, such as equities. Following the U.S. Federal Reserve's firstinterest rate rise in nearly a decade earlier this month and indications the central bank would resort to gradual increases in2016, the outlook for gold does not look bullish. Other fundamentals were not supportive either. A report showed that thenumber of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. rose to the highest level since mid-July last week. TheU.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits increased by 20,000 last week to287,000. Manufacturing activity in the Chicago-area contracted at the fastest pace since July 2009 in December,dampening optimism over the U.S. economic outlook, industry data showed. Market research group KingsburyInternational said its Chicagopurchasing managers’ index tumbled by 5.8 points to42.9 this month from a reading of 48.7 inNovember.Assetsof SPDR Gold Trust, the topgold-backed exchange-tradedfund, were near a seven-year lowwhile shortpositions on COMEX gold contracts were close to a record high. Regional premiums for gold in India were higher becausethe New Year holidays were restricting imports. Buoyed by sharp fall in gold prices globally, India is likely to see a jump of 11per cent in imports of the metal to 1,000 tonnes, says a trade body. According to the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade
Federation, the world’s second-biggest gold consumer imported around 900 tonnes in 2014. According to the federation,India has already imported 850 tonnes of gold from January to September 2015 as against 650 tonnes in the first ninemonthsof last year. The U.S.Mintsolda recordamountofAmerican Eagle silver bullioncoins and saw sales of its goldcoinsrise by 53 percent this year, it said, as weak metal prices unleashed a fresh wave of buying by investors and collectors.Volumes remained light as many investors already closed books at the end of the year, reducing liquidity in the market.Silver imports are likely to set a new record due to rapid change in consumer preferences from imitation jewellery andartifactsmadeof alternativematerials to silver.
Recommendation:
SELL GOLD @25600 SL 25900 TGT 24900.SELL SILVER@ 34100 SL 34800 TGT 32800
Crude oil dropped byaround two percent and also ended the year lower after a racetopumpby MiddleEastcrude producersand U.S. shale oil drillers created an unprecedented global glut that may take through 2016 to clear. Prices also seen underpressure after another year that showed the helplessness of SaudiArabia and others in the once-powerful Organization ofthe Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to support oil prices. The U.S. shale industry, meanwhile, surprised the worldagain with its ability to survive rock-bottom crude prices, churning out more supply than thought, even as the sell-off in oilslashed by two-thirds the numberofdrilling rigs in the country froma yearago.The UnitedStatesalso tooka historicmove inrepealing a 40-year ban on U.S. crude exports to countries outside Canada, acknowledging the industry's growth. Thedownturn has caused pain across the energy supply chain, including shippers, private oil drillers and oil-dependentcountries from Venezuela and Russia to the Middle East. Global crude production is expected to exceeds demand byanywhere between half a million and 2 million barrels every day. Natural gas prices rose over 14% as updated weather forecasting modelspredicted that chillywinterconditionsacross theU.S. Midwest andNortheastarenotexpected to last formore than a week. Prices also seen supported after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell more thanexpected lastweek. TheU.S. Energy InformationAdministration said in itsweekly report that natural gasstorage in theU.S.in the week ended December 25 fell by 58 billion cubic feet, broadly in line with expectations for a decline of 57 billion. That
comparedwitha drawdownof 32billioncubicfeetin the prior week, 26 billioncubic feet in the sameweek last year, while thefive-year average change for the week is a drawdown of 98 billion cubic feet. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.756trillion cubic feet, 14.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 12.0% above the five-year average for this time of year. Prices seen supported the whole week as updated weather forecasting models predicted that chilly winter conditionsacross the U.S.Midwest and Northeast are not expected to last for more thana week. Despite recentgains,pricesof the fuelarestill dropped nearly20%in 2015,as weak demandandhealthy stockpilesweighed.
Recommendation:
SELL CRUDE OIL @2550SL 2650TGT 2300. SELL NAT.GAS @160 SL 168 TGT 142
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 32/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
M u t u a l F u n d
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) has been one of the top performing Equity Linked Savings
Schemes (ELSS) over the last 15years. If you had investedRs5,000 monthly in ICICIPrudential Long Term Equity Fund(Tax Saving) over the last 15 years, you would have saved up to Rs 270,000 in taxes over this period (assuming you are in
30% tax bracket) and on top of this accumulated a corpus of close to Rs60 lacs. Noother tax saving investment would have
giventhiskindof returns in thisperiod. The performance ofthisfundis a testimony of the wealthcreationpower ofELSS.
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving) has been a top ELSS performer even over the last three to five years.
Thisfund launched inAugust1999, hasa fantastic track recordof generating alphassince its inception. Seethechart below,
for the comparison of annualized returns over one, three, five and ten year periods, of the fund, the ELSS Category and the
benchmarkNifty500index (NAVsasonDec142015).
Even in terms of annual returns the fund’s performance has been outstanding, making this fund one of the most long term
consistent performers in the ELSS category. The chart below shows the annual returns of the ICICI Prudential Long Term
EquityFund (TaxSaving) andtheELSS categoryover thelast 10years.
1% 1%
-5%
19%16%
11%13%
10%
6%
14%12%
10%
1year 3 years 5 years 10 years
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund ELSS Funds Category Nifty 500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015YTD
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund ELSS Funds Category
29
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 33/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
Fund Overview of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
Portfolio Construction of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
The ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund is suitable for investors looking for tax planning investment options under Section 80C with the expectation of long term capital appreciation. However, since this is essentially a diversified equity
fund, it is subject to market risk and volatility as compared to other tax saving instruments like PPF, NSC etc. However,
equities as anasset class generatesuperior returns over thelong term andservesas aneffectivehedge against inflation.As
such, the fund is suitable for investors planning for long term financial objectives like retirement planning, children’s
education, marriage etc.The fundhas anAUMbase of overRs2,840 crores, withan expense ratio of 2.41%. GeorgeHeber
Joseph is the manager of this fund. Prior to George, Chintan Haria was the fund manager from 2011. Before Chintan, this
fund wasmanaged by ICICIPrudential CIOShankaran Naren.
The fund has a large cap bias. The investment style is growth focused. 65% of the fund’s assets are invested in large cap
companies. However, relative of the average portfolios of ELSS as a fund category, the fund has a higher allocation to small
and midcap companies. From a sector perspective, the portfolio has a bias for cyclical sectors like Banking and Finance,
Automobiles and Auto Ancillaries, Mining and Minerals, Capital Goods etc, but it also has substantial allocations to sectors
like IT and Pharmaceuticals. This portfolio construction enables the fund manager to get good returns across different
market conditions. In terms of company concentration, the portfolio is very well diversified with its top 5 holdings, HCL
Technologies, HDFC Bank, Cipla, Thomas Cook, and Power Grid accounting for only 34% of the total portfolio value. The
top10stocksaccount foraround 55%of theportfolioholdings.
Sector composition of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
24%35%
4%
14% 12%
11%
BFSI
Auto & Auto Ancilliaries
IT
Pharma
Mining & Minerals
Others
66%
9.4%
8.2%
6%
5.4%
5%
HCL Technologies Ltd
HDFC Bank Ltd
Cipla Ltd
Thomas Cook India
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
30
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 34/36
www.jhaveritrade.com
M u t u a l F u n d
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund
Other Performance Measures
Comparison of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund with Peer Set
Conclusion
From a risk perspective, the volatility of the ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund, measured in annualized standarddeviation overa three to fiveyearperiod is in linewith that of the ELSScategory. However, ona riskadjusted returnbasis, as
measured by Sharpe Ratio the fund has outperformed the ELSS category. Over the last three years the Sharpe Ratio of the
fund is 0.87 versus 0.73 for the category. Over the last 5 year period the Sharpe Ratio of the fund is 0.4 versus 0.25 for the
category.
Comparison of annualized trailing returns of ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund, with its ELSS peers across different
time-scales shows why this fund is considered a top performer. While many of its peers have performed very strongly over
theyears, theperformanceof ICICIPrudential Long TermEquity Fund haseithermatched their performance oreven beaten
them.
By virtue of its outstanding long term track record of wealth creation, ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund (Tax Saving)
has established itself as one the top Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS) funds. Investors planning for tax saving
investments can consider buying the scheme through the systematic investment plan (SIP) or lump sum route with a long
time horizon. Investors should also ensure that the investment objectives of the fund are aligned with their individual risk
profilesandtime horizons.
ICICI Prudential Long Term Equity Fund Tata Long Term Equity Fund
Franklin India Tax Shield Birla Sun Life Tax Relief
HDFC Tax Saver
19% 19% 19%
21%
15%
13% 13%14%
12%
9%
14%13%
15%14%
13%
3 years 5 years 10 years
31
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 35/36
Member: NSE / BSE / NSDL / MCX / NC
Market gives NumberlessOpportunity to Trades,
Then why to limit your trading????
product@ jetrade.in | www.jetrade.in
Give Missed Call : 08049336 177 | SMS JeTrade to: 96013366
FEATURES
Margin Plus is an order placement features through
which you can take Intraday Position in Equity segment…
Which gives you Unlimited Trading Opportunity ….
Margin Plus
Plus
IncreaseYour Day Trading Power
Exclusive for Day Traders
3 in 1 Order Placing
System based Trade Monitorin
Maximum Exposure Advantage
argn us s an or er
w c ou can a e n ra
ABetter Opportunityavailable at a same
Value...
7/23/2019 Money Navigator January 2016
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/money-navigator-january-2016 36/36
01/302, Payal Tower-II, Sayajigunj Vadodara - 390020, Ph.: +91265-3071200Web.: www.jhaveritrade.com I www.jetrade.in
Date Time in IST Country/EventCurrency
CNY
EUR
EUR
CNY
USD
EUR
CNY
EUR
USD
EUR
USD
EUR
CNY
CNYEURUSD
EUREUR
EURUSDUSD
USDUSDUSD
EUREURUSDUSD
EUREUREURUSDUSDUSD
CNY
USDUSD
USDUSD
EURUSDUSD
CNYCNYEUREURUSDUSD
EUREURUSDUSDUSD
USDUSDUSDUSDUSD
Manufacturing PMI
German Prelim CPI m/m
Spanish Unemployment Change
Caixin Services PMI
FOMC Meeting Minutes
German Industrial Production m/m
CPI y/y
Sentix Investor Confidence
NFIB Small Business Index
French CPI m/m
Federal Budget Balance
German WPI m/m
Non-Manufacturing PMI
Caixin Manufacturing PMISpanish Manufacturing PMIISM Manufacturing PMI
CPI Flash Estimate y/yCore CPI Flash Estimate y/y
German Unemployment Change ADP Non-Farm Employment ChangeTrade Balance
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMIFactory Orders m/mCrude Oil Inventories
German Factory Orders m/mUnemployment RateUnemployment ClaimsNatural Gas Storage
German Trade BalanceFrench Industrial Production m/mFrench Trade Balance
Average Hourly Earnings m/mNon-Farm Employment ChangeUnemployment Rate
PPI y/y
JOLTS Job OpeningsLabor Market Conditions Index m/m
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism10-y Bond Auction
Industrial Production m/mCrude Oil Inventories30-y Bond Auction
M2 Money Supply y/yNew LoansECB Monetary Policy Meeting AccountsItalian Industrial Production m/mUnemployment ClaimsImport Prices m/m
French Gov Budget BalanceTrade BalanceCore Retail Sales m/mPPI m/mRetail Sales m/m
Core PPI m/mEmpire State Manufacturing IndexCapacity Utilization RateIndustrial Production m/mPrelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
6:30am
All Day
1:30pm
7:15am
12:30am
12:30pm
7:00am
3:00pm
4:30pm
1:15pm
12:30am
12:30pm
7:15am1:45pm8:30pm
3:30pm
2:25pm6:45pm7:00pm
8:30pm
9:00pm
12:30pm3:30pm7:00pm9:00pm
1:15pm
7:00pm
8:30pm
8:30pm11:31pm
3:30pm9:00pm11:31pm
1:30pm
2:30pm
7:00pm
1:15pm3:30pm7:00pm
7:45pm
8:30pm
Fri Jan 1
Mon Jan 4
Tue Jan 5
Wed Jan 6
Thu Jan 7
Fri Jan 8
Sat Jan 9
Mon Jan 11
Tue Jan 12
Wed Jan 13
Thu Jan 14
Fri Jan 15
Date Time in IST Country/EventCurrency
EUREUR
CNY
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
USD
EUR
EUREUREURUSD
CNYCNYCNYUSDUSDUSD
USDUSD
EUREUREUREUREUREUREUREUREURUSDUSD
USDUSD
EURUSD
CNYUSDUSDUSDUSD
USDUSD
USDEUREURUSDUSDUSDUSD
EUREUREUR
EURUSDUSDUSDUSD
Italian Trade BalanceGerman Final CPI m/m
GDP q/y
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
Belgian NBB Business Climate
German Ifo Business Climate
CB Leading Index m/m
GfK German Consumer Climate
FOMC Statement
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Current AccountGerman ZEW Economic SentimentZEW Economic SentimentNAHB Housing Market Index
Industrial Production y/yFixed Asset Investment ytd/yNBS Press ConferenceBuilding PermitsCPI m/mCore CPI m/m
Housing StartsCrude Oil Inventories
French Flash Services PMISpanish Unemployment RateGerman Flash Manufacturing PMIGerman Flash Services PMIFlash Manufacturing PMIFlash Services PMIFinal CPI y/yMinimum Bid RateECB Press ConferencePhilly Fed Manufacturing IndexUnemployment Claims
Existing Home SalesCB Leading Index m/m
Italian Retail Sales m/mNew Home Sales
HPI m/mS&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/yCB Consumer ConfidenceRichmond Manufacturing Index
New Home SalesCrude Oil Inventories
Federal Funds RateGerman Prelim CPI m/mGerman Unemployment ChangeCore Durable Goods Orders m/mUnemployment ClaimsDurable Goods Orders m/mPending Home Sales m/m
Spanish Flash GDP q/qM3 Money Supply y/yCPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y Advance GDP q/q Advance GDP Price Index q/qEmployment Cost Index q/qGoods Trade Balance
2:30pm12:30pm
7:30am
1:30pm
7:30pm
2:30pm
7:30am
12:30pm
12:30am
1:30pm
2:30pm3:30pm
8:30pm
7:00pm
9:00pm
2:00pm
2:30pm
3:30pm6:15pm7:00pm
8:30pm
7:30pm
7:30pm
8:30pm
8:30pm9:00pm
All Day2:25pm7:00pm
8:30pm
2:30pm3:30pm
7:00pm
Mon Jan 18
Tue Jan 19
Wed Jan 20
Thu Jan 21
Fri Jan 22
Mon Jan 25
Tue Jan 26
Wed Jan 27
Thu Jan 28
Fri Jan 29
top related