mmas thesis outline parlade
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MMAS THESIS OUTLINE
Can Insurgency in the Philippines be Won?
MAJOR JUN PARLADE
10 January 2006
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CHAPTERS
1. INTRODUCTION AND
METHODOLOGY
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
3. HISTORY 1946-1987
4. THE INSURGENCY ( 1987 TO DATE)
5. THE COUNTERINSURGENCY (1987TO DATE)
6. ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION
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I INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
A background of what the study is all about.
Introduces Bard O Neills framework oninsurgency:
A. Strategic and Historical Setting: Pre-Insurgency Situation (Chapter 3)
Historical Background Physical Environment (Current Geographic, Regional
Context)
Human Environment (Groups, Grievances, Attitudes,
Connections) Summary/Conclusion (Galulas pre-requisites: cause,
government administrative weakness, geographicenvironment, available outside support)
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B. Conduct of Insurgency ( Chapter 4)
Initial Phase (leaders, goals, type of
insurgency) Organization, Decision-making,
communication
Ideology, objectives, message Strategy, patterns, use of violence and terror
Development, phases, adaptation
Operational Analysis (organizational COG,lines of operation, culmination)
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7. Decisive points, vulnerabilities for thisinsurgency
Images to key groups, efforts to shape image
Recruitment
Training, developing Movement
Internal, external sanctuaries
Money (obtaining, moving, distributing)
Arms, ammunitions, materiel
Insurgent controlled areas (administration, expansion)
External influence, support, direction
Unity, competing organizations and fragmentation
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8. Responses of Population/Society Changes in groups (objectives, membership,
relationships); Emergence of new groups
Key groups initial support
Changes in support to insurgency, counterinsurgency
Critical Perceptions (of ability toprotect/coerce/reward, purpose, endstate)
Actions or inactions (reasons, causes)
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C. Conduct of the Counterinsurgency (Chapter 5) Initial situation analysis, responses
Civil military organization, decision-making, integration
COIN Plan Analysis of Insurgency (Objectives, strength, strategy)
Decisions, policies Resources, other limitations
Leaders
Information, influence operations
Implementation, adjustments
Identification of key groups, mobilization efforts Populace Resource Control Measures
Key Tactics, Techniques, Procedures
Efforts in security, balanced development, mobilization,neutralization
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Operational Analysis (Organizational COG, Lines of
Operation, decisive points, culmination)
External support, influence (including advisors role,
impact)
Responses of Population/Society
Key groups initial support
Changes in groups (objectives, membership, relationships);
Emergence of new groups
Changes in support to insurgency, counterinsurgency Critical Perceptions (of ability to protect/coerce/reward,
purpose, endstate)
Actions or inactions (reasons, causes)
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INSURGENCY IN THE
PHILIPPINES
CPP/NPA Communist inspired
MILF Muslim seccessionistASG Islamic Jihadist
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THREATS TO NATIONAL
SECURITY
CPP-NPA (Maoist)
MILF
ABU SAYAFF GROUP
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COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE
PHILIPPINES (CPP) FOUNDED IN 1969- from MAOIST-LENINIST
principles and doctrines
By JOSE MA. SISON a professor from theUniversity of the Philippines
Composed of young activist professors andstudent leaders
Visited China in mid-1960s during the RedRevolution
Objective overthrow the government throughviolent means and establish communist rule
The primary threat to national security
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Strategic Line of Protracted
Peoples War
Maoist strategy that calls for the encircling of the
cities from the countryside - establishment of
guerrilla bases from the countryside from where
the revolutionary struggle advances to the citiesto seize political power
Peoples war harnesses and integrates all
available resources to wage a common struggle
in the political, ideological, economic, culturaland military fields; permeates all levels and
sectors of society; relies heavily on masses
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ORGANIZATION
Central Committee (Politburo)- based in Manila
Regional Party Committees one each from the 12political regions (5-6 provinces each region)
Provincial Party Committees 3-5 provinces/region or
some 46 PPCs of the 78 provinces of the country Front Committees 1 to 3 Fronts per province
depending on the size and support of the mass base; asof 2003 Luzon- 49 guerilla fronts, Visayas 23,Mindanao - 34
District Committees 2 to 3 Discoms per province
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NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC FRONT
(NDF) Legal front organizations of the United Front of the CPP
Composed of organizations of : Teachers (Association of Concerned Teachers) or ACT
Youth (National Youth Movement) NYM or KabataangMakabayan (KM)
Students (League of Filipino Students) or LFS Lawyers (Free Legal Assistance Group) or FLAG
Human rights advocates (KARAPATAN)
Union Members (Trade Union Congress of the Phil)
Farmers (Kilusang Magsasaka ng Pilipinas) or KMP
Drivers (PISTON) Government employees ( COURAGE)
Women (Gabriela)
Fishermen, Priests, Laborers, Etc
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NEW PEOPLES ARMY (NPA)
The armed wing of the CPP/NDF
Lead by the Chairman, Military Commission
Main Regional Guerrilla Unit (MRGU) composed of 75to 150 red fighters
Sub Regional Guerrilla Unit (SRGU) composed of 40to 70 red fighters
Plager Platoon Guerrilla composed of 15 to 30 redfighters, one or more Plager per Front Committee
Semi Legal Teams (SLTs) composed of 4 to 7 red
fighters , 3 to 4 SLTs per Discoms SPARU Sparrow Unit or hit squads for the urban
areas, 2-4 members per unit
Reached its peak of 27,000 in 1987, down to 9,000
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MASS BASE
Composed of:
- sympathizers
- supporters
- couriers Provides logistics, intelligence, safehouses,mobility
Organize mass works and mass actions
Willingly or unwillingly Distributed among Influenced and Threatenedvillages around the Guerilla Zone
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