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MID-ATLANTIC ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE
Market Update
Gil Tal, Ph.D., Director, PH&EV Research Center, University of California, Davis
Global Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales
03 May 2019 2
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annu
al S
ales
China USA Norway Germany UKFrance Japan Canada Korea SwedenNetherlands Belgium Spain Italy Other
Model Availability
03 May 2019 3
0100200300400500600
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Mod
els f
or S
ale
Global
0
20
40
60
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018M
odel
s for
Sal
e
USA
USA
Are we done with working on Electrification?
4
05
101520253035404550
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Shar
e of
Glo
bal P
rodu
ctio
n
OEMs PEV production Forcasts
Toyota BEVs Toyota PHEVs BMW PEVs GM BEVs GM HEV+PHEV
Batteries and BEVs: the next 10 years
Gil Tal • Vehicle Electrification 5
BEV Lithium Ion projected pouch cell parameters TBS, 2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Elec
tric D
rivin
g ra
nge (
km, N
EDC)
BEV driving range trends
US Market
03 May 2019 6
USA PEV sales were growing slower than rest of world until 2018, but now will hit 300,000 by end of year.
-
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US
Flee
t
Annu
al sa
les
PHEV BEV FCEV Total
BEV, PHEV, and FCEV Sales- US
03 May 2019 8
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annu
al S
ales
BEV Tesla BEV PHEV FCEV
2018 Top Selling Models- US
03 May 2019 9
Tesla Model 3 43%
Toyota Prius PHEV 8%
Tesla Model X 8%
Tesla Model S 7%
Chevrolet Volt 6%
Honda Clarity PHEV 6%
Chevrolet Bolt EV 6%
Nissan Leaf EV 4%
BMW 530e 3%
Ford Fusion Energi 2%
Chrysler Pacifica PHEV
2%
BMW i3 EV / EREV 2%
BMW X5 PHEV 1%
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1%
Kia Niro PHEV
1%
1st Tesla Model 3
2nd Toyota Prius Prime
3rd Tesla Model X
Growing the EV market will need high numbers of repeat buyers and used PEV buyers
• USA PEV sales were growing slower than rest of world until 2018, but the Model 3 changed the picture.
• PHEV market grew 25% in 2018 but none Tesla BEVs dropped in 20%
• More than half of Californians are not buying new vehicles and 14% are buying half the new vehicles.
• One third of the Chevy Bolt buyers and 25% of the Tesla model 3 buyers are buying their second PEV
• The used PEV market grow faster at the same location and demographic areas as the new PEV market
• Awareness on Evs did not Changed 2014-2018, resent recent studies in canada and the eu showed similar results
Gil Tal • Vehicle Electrification 11
Can we electrify the main Market?
1 vehicle available 37%
2 vehicle available 41%
3 vehicle available 15%
4+ vehicle available 7%
US Vehicle per Household
1 vehicle available 2 vehicle available 3 vehicle available 4+ vehicle available
Charging Location of Individual Use
Public L2 (2%-10%)
Public DC Fast (5%-10%)
Work (30%-50%)
Home (80%+)
Gil Tal • Vehicle Electrification 13
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