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Harvard Kennedy SchoolEnergy Policy Seminar Series
Methane: A Uniquely Difficult Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Problem
Robert KleinbergSchlumberger
Cambridge, Massachusetts
19 March 2018
Schlumberger
Dimmit County, Texas
Greene County, Pennsylvania
Schlumberger is the actual provider of exploration, drilling, and production services to the oil and gas industry.
The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of Schlumberger.
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Outline
Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases
Sources of atmospheric methane
Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?
Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry
Current and potential policy responses
Natural Gas = 80% ‐ 100% methane (CH4)
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/content/assets/images/charts/Energy/Energy_2016_United‐States.png
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption (2016)27.5 trillion cubic feet = sphere 7 miles in diameter
Natural Gas Has Overtaken Coal in Electric Power Generation
0
2
4
6
8
10
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Elec
tric
Pow
er F
uel C
osts
($/G
J)
Year
2001 20092003 201120072005 2013
Coal
Natural Gas
180314-02
2014
2015
EIA Electric Power Monthly; All Sectors
2017
0
50
100
150
200
Elec
tric
Pow
er (T
W-h
our/m
onth
)
Year
2001 20092003 201120072005 2013
Coal
Natural Gas
180314-01
2014
2015
EIA Electric Power Monthly; All Sectors
2017
EIA Electric Power Monthly: All Sectors
Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy
Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy, November 2017
Gas Combined CycleCoal
Nuclear
Wind
Utility Solar
Residential Solar
Offshore Wind
Solar + Storage
Natural Gas
Coal
https://www.ecofys.com/files/files/ecofys‐2014‐international‐comparison‐fossil‐power‐efficiency.pdf
CO2Intensity
(g/kWh)
CO2Intensity
(g/kWh)
Natural Gas Emits About Half as Much Carbon Dioxide as Coal
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Milli
on M
etric
Ton
s C
arbo
n D
ioxi
de
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
180314-03
US Total CO2 Emissions 1973-2017
US Energy Information Administration
Kyoto Protocol Target for USA: Return to 1990 emission levels by 2008-2012
Kyoto Protocol(CO2 only)
U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview‐greenhouse‐gaseshttps://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/styles/large/public/2017‐04/overview1.png
Total Emissions in 20156,587 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent
Carbon dioxide emissions are decreasing,but carbon dioxide is not the only greenhouse gas
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
CO
2 Rem
aini
ng in
Atm
osph
ere
Years After 1 kg CO2 Pulse 180121-02
Alvarez, PNAS, 2012
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60
80
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Glo
bal W
arm
ing
Pote
ntia
lR
elat
ive
to 1
kg
CO
2
Years After 1 kg CH4 Pulse
Alvarez, PNAS, 2012
180121-01
Global Warming Potentialof CH4 + decay products
(ozone, stratospheric water, CO2)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
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1.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
CH
4 Rem
aini
ng in
Atm
osph
ere
Years After 1 kg CH4 Pulse 180121-03
Alvarez, PNAS, 2012
Carbon Dioxide Methane
(IPCC AR4)
Methane is a More Potent Greenhouse Gas than Carbon Dioxide
after a century, methane isstill 25x more potent than carbon dioxide
0
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500
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Atm
osph
eric
Car
bon
Dio
xide
(ppm
)
Year (AD) 180121-04
1.4x since 1750
Carbon Dioxide
https://archive.epa.gov/epa/climate‐change‐science/causes‐climate‐change.htmlhttps://archive.epa.gov/epa/sites/production/files/2016‐07/ghgconc2000‐large.jpgftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/ch4/ch4_annmean_gl.txt
Methane
0
500
1000
1500
2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000
Year (AD)At
mos
pher
ic M
etha
ne (p
pb)
180121-05
2.6x since 1750
Relative to pre-industrial levels, atmospheric methanehas increased much more than carbon dioxide
Outline
Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases
Sources of atmospheric methane
Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?
Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry
Current and potential policy responses
IEA World Energy Outlook 2017
(Global)
75% Oil & Gas25% Coal
Maasakkers, Environmental Science & Technology, 2016https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/gridded‐2012‐methane‐emissions
Identification of Methane Emissions in an Urban SettingCrosson, Phillips, Hutyra, Turnbull, Sweeney, Ackley, Tan (2011)
Maasakkers, Environmental Science & Technology, 2016
Fugitive Methane from Oil + Natural Gas = 350 - 700 billion cubic ft per year1.4% – 2.8% of US Natural Gas Consumption (25,500 bcf in 2012)
Large Uncertaintiesin Methane Emissions
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
TotalAgriculture
Landfills +Wastewater
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
Coal
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Fugitive Methane(million metric tons per year)
95% confidence intervals
180116-01
US Anthropogenic Emissions 2012
Fugitive Methane(billion cubic feet per year)
For a litany of measurement problems see IEA World Energy Outlook 2017, Section 10.2This is very depressing for anyone advocating data-driven policy making.
Outline
Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases
Sources of atmospheric methane
Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?
Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry
Current and potential policy responses
Is it Worthwhile Replacing Coal with Natural Gas?
Per unit of produced electrical power, natural gas combustion produces half the carbon dioxide of coal combustion.
Methane leaks, if greater than about 2.5% of methane used, eliminate the GHG advantage of natural gas vs. coal.
Coal combustion also produces pollutants such as particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, which have a cooling effect.
http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met130/notes/chapter16/mtpin_tseries.html
Global air temperature
Wigley, Climatic Change (2011) 108:601–608
Effect of Partial Conversion of Coal to Gas in Global Power Generation
• Model assumes 1.25%/year reduction of coal use for forty years, with gas use increasing to keep produced electrical energy constant.
• Warming in early years due to reduction of coal-associated black carbon and sulfate aerosols.
Cooling Due to CO2 Reduction
50%coal to gasconversion
Warming Due to Aerosol
Reduction
US: Energy Information Administration Electric Power Annual, 2007, 2016China, India: Li, Nature Scientific Reports, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-14639-8
Wigley Used Old Data
0
5
10
15
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
gram
SO
2 per
kg
Coa
l
Year
Sulfur Dioxide Emission from Electric Power Generation
USChina
India
180304-01
Wigley
Data from NASAOzone MonitoringInstrument
Data from EIA surveys andestimates
U.S. and China have dramatically reduced emissions of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter from coal powered electric power generation. India has not.
Is it Worthwhile Replacing Coal with Natural Gas?
Per unit of produced electrical power, natural gas combustion produces half the carbon dioxide of coal combustion.
Methane leaks, if greater than about 2.5% of methane used, eliminate the GHG advantage of natural gas vs. coal.
Coal combustion also produces pollutants such as particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, which have a cooling effect.
Air pollution control measures largely eliminate particulate matter and sulfur dioxide, at the cost of increased global warming.
After removal of pollutants, coal-to-gas switching has a real advantage in decreasing global warming.
Where anti-pollution measures have not yet been instituted, coal-to-gas switching reduces air pollution, but has little net effect on global warming.
Outline
Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases
Sources of atmospheric methane
Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?
Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry
Current and potential policy responses
40 CFR Part 60, Subpart OOOOa - Standards of Performance for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Facilities for which Construction, Modification or Reconstruction Commenced After September 18, 2015
§ 60.5397a(a): “ . . . fugitive emissions are defined as: Any visible emission . . . observed using optical gas imaging or an instrument reading of 500 ppm or greater using Method 21.”
Challenges of Well Site Methane Leak Detection & Repair
Federal Register / Vol. 81, No. 107 / Friday, June 3, 2016 / Rules and Regulations40 CFR 60: pages 35824‐35942; OOOOa: pages 35898‐35942
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/40/part‐60/subpart‐OOOOa
[Meter Resolution] 6.3 The scale of the instrument meter shall be readable to ±2.5 percent of the specified leak definition concentration.
[Carrier Gas Flow Rate] 6.4 The instrument shall be equipped with an electrically driven pump to ensure that a sample is provided to the detector at a constant flow rate. The nominal sample flow rate, as measured at the sample probe tip, shall be 0.10 to 3.0 l/min (0.004 to 0.1 ft 3/min) when the probe is fitted with a glass wool plug or filter that may be used to prevent plugging of the instrument.
[Probe Diameter] 6.5 The instrument shall be equipped with a probe or probe extension or sampling not to exceed 6.4 mm (1/4 in) in outside diameter, with a single end opening for admission of sample.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=‐2UnL‐VGvx0
Optical Gas ImagingMethod 21
Kleinberg, Southwest Research Institute, July 2017
Natural Gas Drying & MeteringWashington County, Pennsylvania
Challenges of Well Site MethaneLeak Detection & Repair
40 CFR Part 60, Subpart OOOOa
“There is no notion that the repair threshold of 500 ppm equates to the target leak rate of 6 cu.ft./hr.”
Kleinberg, EPA Meeting Notes, 19 Aug 2016
5‐200 cu.ft./hr
1 3
2
Infrared Image
4
Typical Refinery or Chemical Plant
Leak Detection and Repair: A Best Practices Guide, EPA‐305‐D‐07‐001, October 2007
A. P. Ravikumar et al., Environmental Science & Technology (2017) 51 718.
Super-Emitters
Environmental Defense Fund / Stanford University / SchlumbergerAirborne survey to find super-emitter sites
Outline
Natural gas as a source of energy and greenhouse gases
Sources of atmospheric methane
Is it worthwhile replacing coal with natural gas?
Leak detection and repair in the petroleum industry
Current and potential policy responses
X 80 billion Mcf/year = $0.8 billion
Economic Analysis of Methane Emission Reduction Opportunities in the On‐Shore Oil and Natural Gas IndustriesICF International for National Governors’ Association, December 2014. See also IEA WEO 2017 Sec. 10.4.1
Economic Incentive for Reduction of Vented & Fugitive Methane
One year payback time
If You Can’t Sell the Gas, There is No Economic Incentive to Repair Leaks
Negative values: cost of remediation can be recovered (gas price = $3/mcf)Positive values: cost of remediation cannot be recovered
Economic Analysis of Methane Emission Reduction Potential from Natural Gas SystemsICF International for ONE Future, May 2016
Current and Potential Policy Responses: Discouragingly Ineffective
Economic IncentivesNot as compelling as industry and environmental groups pretendOnly 20% of repairs pay back in the best-case scenario
Leak Detection & RepairCommand and control:
Technologically inflexible due to regulatory inertiaDiagnostics do not quantify the actual problemHard to implement effectively
Carbon-Equivalent Tax You can’t tax what you can’t measure
Cap and TradeYou can’t trade what you can’t measure
Discourage Use of Natural GasGas is the most versatile energy source availableAlternatives (coal, nuclear, etc) are worse
Moral SuasionA challenging problem in
energy technology innovation policy
Recent Bibliography
International Energy Agency Chapter 10: The Environmental Case for Natural GasWorld Energy Outlook 2017, November 2017
K. Konschnik and S.M. JordaanReducing fugitive methane emissions from the North American oil and gas sectorClimate Policy, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2018.1427538
Improving Characterization of Anthropogenic Methane Emissions in the United StatesNational Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 27 March 2018
Robert L. Kleinberg, Ph.D.SchlumbergerOne Hampshire StreetCambridge, MA 02139
617-768-2277kleinberg@slb.comhttp://www.linkedin.com/pub/robert-kleinberg/19/177/131Member of the National Academy of Engineering
Dimmit County, Texas
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