mega trends impacting on higher education - riga, 6 november 2017

MEGA-TRENDS IMPACTING

ON HIGHER EDUCATION

Dirk Van Damme

OECD/EDU/SBS – @VanDammeEDU

2

Ageing Populations

Global Economic Integration

International

inequality

Intergenerational Transmission of Disadvantage

Changing balance of global power

More satisfied with life?

Lower voter turnout

Skills mismatch

Women in the labour market

and childbirth

More diverse families, generally

smaller and with older parents

Almost ubiquitous access and use of computing and the Internet

A digital societyKnowledge-intensive Economies

Migration and

mobility

Urban life

Obesity epidemic

Mega-trends…

3

…and global risks…

4

…and global risks…

…affecting skills demand…

Routine manual

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Nonroutine analytic

Nonroutine interpersonal

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009

Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution (US)

5

…and education itself.

GLOBALISATION

7

Sources: H&M (2015), H&M Worldwide website; Inditex (2015), Our History, Inditex website; Tarzian, JoanMarie (2015), Santander Corporate Communication – International Media Relations; Starbucks (2015), Company Information, Starbucks website; Hoover, Joan (2015), Apple Investor Relations; Spencer, Graham (2015), Contributor, Macstories. 8

Global expansion of multinational companies

The global reach of five companies in food services, garments, banking, and

technology, 1988-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Num

ber

of

Countr

ies

Starbucks

Inditex

H&M

Apple

Migration

Global integration

Trade patterns

Environment

Harmonisation of values

Affluence and

inequality

Democracy and dual

nationalities

GLOBALISATION

9

10

Globalisation also generates inequalities and exclusion.

How strong is the backlash against globalisation among the excluded?

11

Globally connected networks in research

12

Over 50% of scientific papers written in collaboration;

almost 20% in international networks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%

Multiple authors, international collab. only Multiple authors, international and domestic collab.

Multiple authors, domestic collab. only Single author, multiple affiliations (dom. or international.)

Multiple authors, no institutional collaboration Single author, single institution

No institutional

collaboration

Institutional

collaboration

China17%

United States14%

India14%

Russian Federation

10%

Japan6%

Indonesia4%

Brazil4%

Korea4%

Mexico3%

United Kingdom

3%

France2%

Germany2%

Canada2%

Turkey2%

Spain2%

Poland2%

Argentina1%

Italy1% Australia

1%

Saudi Arabia1%

Other6%

F

137

million

13

Global expansion & redistribution of qualificationsGlobal distribution of tertiary educated 25-34 y-olds in 2013 and 2030

China27%

United States8%

India23%Russian

Federation4%

Japan3%

Indonesia5%

Brazil5%

Korea2%

Mexico2%

United Kingdom

2%

France1%

Germany2%

Canada1%

Turkey2%

Spain1%

Poland1%

Argentina2%

Italy1%

Australia1%

Saudi Arabia3%

Other6%

300

million

China17%

United States14%

India14%

Russian Federation

10%

Japan6%Indonesia

4%

Brazil4%

Korea4%

Mexico3%

United Kingdom

3%

France2%

Germany2%

Canada2%

Turkey2% Spain

2%

Poland2% Argentina

1%

Italy1% Australia

1%

Saudi Arabia1%

Other6%

Share of global graduates 2013

14

United States43.2%

United Kingdom13.8%

Netherlands6.0%Germany

4.3%Canada

4.3%

Australia4.3%

Switzerland3.5%

France3.0%

Japan2.5%

Sweden2.6%

Korea2.2%

Hong Kong2.0%

Other8.4%

Share in academic excellenceTHEWUR 2012

Global distribution of qualifications and

academic excellence

Global integration of qualifications?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ja

pa

n

Fin

land

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Sw

ede

n

Au

str

alia

No

rway

Fla

nd

ers

(B

elg

ium

)

En

gla

nd

(U

K)

Engla

nd/N

.…

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

OE

CD

avera

ge

Po

land

Ca

na

da

No

rth

ern

Ire

land

…

Au

str

ia

Ge

rma

ny

Ire

land

Fra

nce

Denm

ark

Esto

nia

Slo

va

k R

ep

ub

lic

Ko

rea

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

era

tion

Sp

ain

Ita

ly

Below upper secondary education Upper secondary or post-secondary non-tertiary education Tertiary education

15

Proportion of 25-64 year-olds scoring at PIAAC numeracy level 4 and 5, by educational attainment of the population (2012)

16

Increase of international students - flattening

17

Countries differ in their integration in

international student flows

New Zealand

Australia

United Kingdom

Switzerland

Austria

BelgiumCanada

NetherlandsDenmark Czech Republic

France

FinlandGermanyHungary Ireland

Sweden

Slovak Republic

Latvia

ItalyUnited StatesPortugal

Estonia

Japan Norway LithuaniaRussian Federation SloveniaPoland KoreaTurkey

Chile China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Stu

de

nt

infl

ow

Student outflow

Tertiary

Luxembourg

INSECURITY – RISKS

18

Higher education

Fraud / corruption

Increased private cost / loans

Uncertain outcomes

End of credentialism

Post-truth Alternative

facts

Ideologies

Decreased public

funding capacity

19

Risks are not only coming from outside higher

education, but also are found within

Post-truth, alternative facts

“What, then, are we, the leaders of our institutions of higher education, to do when faced with a president who denies facts, who denies science?”

20

21

22

Commodification of higher education as a risk

23

Public versus private funding of higher education

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Fin

lan

d

No

rway

Luxe

mb

ou

rg

Den

mar

k

Au

stri

a

Icel

and

Swed

en

Bel

giu

m

Arg

enti

na

Slo

ven

ia

Ger

man

y

Esto

nia

Po

lan

d

Fran

ce

Latv

ia

EU2

2 a

vera

ge

Slo

vak

Rep

ub

lic

Lith

uan

ia

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Ind

on

esia

Turk

ey

Irel

and

Mex

ico

OEC

D a

vera

ge

Net

her

lan

ds

Hu

nga

ry

Spai

n

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Ital

y

Po

rtu

gal

Isra

el

New

Ze

alan

d

Can

ada

Co

lom

bia

Au

stra

lia

Ch

ile

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Ko

rea

Jap

an

Un

ited

Kin

gdo

m

%

Public expenditure on educational institutions Household expenditure

Expenditure of other private entities All private sources

End of credentialism?

Source: Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012)24

From qualifications to skills

25

From qualifications to skills

26

Credentialism as social security?

27

28

New credentials: open badges, nano-

degrees, micro-credentials,etc.

SOCIAL INEQUALITIESSOCIAL EXCLUSIONWASTE OF TALENT

29

Gini coefficients of income inequality, mid-1980s and

2013, or latest date available

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

1985 2013 or latest

Increase Little change Decrease

30

Trends in real household incomes at the bottom, the

middle and the top, OECD average, 1985 = 1

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Bottom 10% Bottom 40% middle 50-90% Top 10%

31

Amount of money spent by US households on child

development

32

Average numeracy score by parent educational

background (PEB) and inequality

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

0.18 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38

Nu

mer

acy

sco

re

Inequality (Gini coefficient)

Low PEB Medium PEB High PEB

33

34

Social background impacts on opportunities

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ital

y

Slo

vak

Rep

ub

lic

Po

lan

d

Turk

ey

Fran

ce

Sin

gap

ore

Cze

ch R

epu

blic

Gre

ece

Spai

n

No

rth

ern

Irel

and

Engl

and

Isra

el

Un

ited

Sta

tes

Ch

ile

Irel

and

Au

stra

lia

Lith

uan

ia

Ave

rage

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

atio

n

Net

her

lan

ds

Can

ada

Ko

rea

No

rway

Slo

ven

ia

Flem

ish

Co

m.

Ger

man

y

New

Ze

alan

d

Esto

nia

Jap

an

Fin

lan

d

Swed

en

Den

mar

k

Au

stri

a

% At least one parent has attained tertiary education Both parents have less than tertiary educational attainment

Share of 30-44 year-olds who completed tertiary-type A or an advanced research programme, by parents' educational attainment (2012 or 2015)

The engine of social mobility falters

Australia

Austria

CanadaDenmark

Estonia

FinlandFrance

Germany

IrelandItaly

Japan

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Spain

SwedenUnited States

Flanders (Belgium)

England/N. Ireland (United Kingdom)

Russian Federation*

Average

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12345678910

Up

wa

rd m

ob

ilit

y

Odds ratio

inequality of opportunity

low educational mobility

inequality of opportunity

high educational mobility

equality of opportunity

high educational mobility

equality of opportunity

low educational mobility

35

TECHNOLOGY AND SKILLS

36

37

New technologies

Social networksDigital

divide

Information as power

Entrepreneurs

Cyberbullying

Cyber security

Biotechnology

Privacy

R&DA BRAVE NEW

WORLD

Trends Affecting Future Skills Demand

38

Mismatch between skills supply and demand

39

Is the delivery of education changing?

Number of MOOCS, 2012-16

41

What will the future be?

globalisation

internationalization

cost-sharing

trade liberalization

accountability

openness

local eco-system

OECD (2008) scenario’s on the future of higher education

Thank you!

dirk.vandamme@oecd.orgwww.oecd.org/edu/ceri

twitter @VanDammeEDU

42