mega- and gigacities and their challenges for energy and
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Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Mega- and Gigacitiesand their Challenges for Energy
and Electrical Systems
Arnulf GrublerIIASA and FES Yale University
Electricity and the Human ProspectStanford University December 9, 2004
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Points for Discussion
• Urbanization (current + projections)• Is continued urbanization plausible? (yes)• Energy challenges of cities
(power density)• Urbanization and electricity use
(where are the lights?)• Gigacities (from city stars to city galaxies)• Implications (need for new infrastructures
and zero-emission energy = ele + H2)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Cities
~50 % of world population (~2007)
>80? % of world GDP (few data)
>80? % of world electricty (no data)
~95 % of world internet sites and traffic(good data)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Urbanization• Pre-1700: Limited by agricultural
surplus production: <10% urban• Size limit: Size of empire reach and
availability of transport infrastructureFirst „Megacity“: Changan, China 800 AD (canals)
• Post 1700: Urbanization enabled byagricultural productivity growth, division of labor, new transport infrastructures (railways)
• ~2000: Mid-point. 50% urban globally• Asymptotic state: >90% by >2100?
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
-2
-1
0
1
2
900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500
log
(urb
an/n
on-u
rban
)
50%
10%
99%
90%
Percent urban
Δt = 315 yrs
Data:pre-1950: own estimates; 1950-2030: UN, 2002.
1%
World Urbanization
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Population Density1990 and Two Scenarios for 2070
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Does Space Matter?:“[the] report of my death was an exaggeration” (Mark Twain)
NY Internet Domains Source: Zook, 2001
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Energy and Electricity Challenges of Cities
• Spatial mismatch demand – supply(vast imports)
• Enormous power densities(limiting supply options)
• Vulnerability requires extreme reliability• Congestion needs high tech solutions• Assimilative capacity of environment
extremely limited (need for zero emissions)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Spatial Power Densities ofEnergy Production and Consumption
Megacities
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Tokyo Electricity Demandand Solar Supply Potential
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Let there be Light…
• Indicator of vulnerability (black-outs)• Show potential demand
(combined with socio-economic data)• Formal modeling (high correlation with
GDP and electricity use)• Simulating (spatially explicit) futures
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
2000
Night Luminosity Map
Source: Adapted from NOAA
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Nighttime Lights vs. Electricity Usefor 135 countries by region in 1996
y = 0.9017x - 0.8232R2 = 0.8584
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
5 6 7 8 9 10
NAMPAOWEUEEUFSUAFRLAMMEACPAPASSAS
log electricity use (MWhr)
log
nigh
time
light
s (s
um o
f dim
ensi
onle
ss in
dica
tors
)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Electrification Scenarios(using GDP as proxy indicator)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Electrification Scenarios(using GDP as proxy indicator)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
Electrification Scenarios(using GDP as proxy indicator)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
From Mega- to Gigacities
• Hierarchies in city size: rank-size (RS, Zipf)• Stability of RS since 1000 AD• Pre-1700: Max. city size: <1 Million
(few stars, most in Asia)• Post-1700: Max size: <10 Million
(many stars, most in Europe+”offshoots”)• Post 1900: Emergence of city clusters <100
Million (urban galaxies, dominance of Asia)• Possible discontinuity in 2070 (demographics
of declining population, Europe & China)
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5900 1250 1500 1700 1800 6 71900 2000
200
50
100
150
Asia
Africa
Europe
European off-shoots
10 Largest Cities AD 900-2000
900-1800 1900-2000
Data: T. Chandler, 1987; UN, 2003.
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
World Cities:Ranke Size Distribution 900 to 2000 AD
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1 0 1 2 3Rank
Popu
latio
n (M
illion
)
1 10 100 1000
1
10
100
.1
.01
Chinese Sea
900
125015001700
1800
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1 0 1 2 3Rank
Popu
latio
n (M
illion
)
1 10 100 1000
1
10
100
.1
.01
Chinese Sea
900
125015001700
1800
……..…
2000 with city clusters
1900
19502000
Electricity and the Human Prospect Arnulf Grubler 2004
World Cities 900-2000 AD
-2
-1
0
1
2
-1 0 1 2 3Rank
Pop
ulat
ion
(Mill
ion)
1 10 100 1000
1
10
100
.1
.01
BagdadPeking
Peking
Hangchow
London
Tokyo
Chinese Sea SHIN
KANS
ENSA
O-RIO
GREA
T LA
KES
BOSW
ASH
CALI
FORN
IA
MEX
ICO-C
ENTR
O
GANGA
MUM
POONE
RHIN
E-RUH
R
JAVA
BENGAL D
ELTA
New York
Chinese Seacoast?
..............
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