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May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
1European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Inventory and projection experts workshop Working group I and II of the EU GHG
Monitoring mechanism Committee
EU-wide projections of animal numbers
Methodology and availability of data
European Commission
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
• Availability of statistics, short-term estimates and long term projections (Agriculture Directorate General, Eurostat, other)
Structure of the presentation
Introduction
• Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level
• Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level
Methodologyand
policy modeling
Conclusion • Summary of key findings
• Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy
CAP reform
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
• Surveys and censuses carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT
Availability of statistics and projections
Official Statistics
• Short-term projection of Gross Indigenous Production (number of heads) carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT
Census and Surveys Cattle Pigs Sheep/GoatMinimim number per year 1 to 2 1 to 4 1
Gross Indigenous Production Cattle Pigs Sheep/GoatNumer of updates per year 2 3 1Projection period 3 half years 3 quarters 2 half years
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Availability of statistics and projections
• Statistical annex of the Annual report on the situation of EU Agriculture
• Long-term prospects for agricultural markets
• Ad-hoc publications (e.g. impact assessment of Mid Term review of Agricultural Policy)
Other official
sources
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
• Gross Indigenous Production calculated by Member States on the basis of harmonised methodology
– mostly based on detailed herd structure data provided by census and surveys
– frequent use of other statistical sources, like administrative databases and registers
– in most cases simple forecasts directly linked to breeding animal numbers
Short-term projections
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
• DG Agriculture projections rely on a partial equilibrium model derived from the OECD AGLINK model
– Partial equilibrium (more than 3100 equations, of which around 1500 endogenous)
– Recursive dynamic
– World coverage: 13 countries/regions
– Product coverage: more than 30 commodities
• Prices (and policy) determine the level of production and consumption
• Output: balance sheet for main commodities, domestic and world market prices
Long-term projections
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
• Currently published for EU-15 as a whole and for the Acceding Countries (yearly projections 2002-2009):
– Beef and veal production (in tons)
– Dairy cow herd (in heads)
– Pig meat production (in tons)
– Poultry meat production (in tons)
– Sheep and goat meat production (in tons)
Long-term projections
What is available?
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
Long-term projections
Dairy cows herd projections under status quo policy (Agenda 2000)
80000
85000
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Prod
uctio
n (0
00 t)
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
Dai
ry h
erd
(000
hea
d)
Production
Dairy herd
Deliveries
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
• The case of beef:– Beef and veal production (in tons)Long-term
projections
How it is calculated?
Beef cow Inventory Beef returnmilk cow invent.milk productionmilk production
Beef production
Male bovine direct payments
Suckler cow direct payments
Adult cattle slaughter premia
Calf slaughter premia
Feed cost index
PositiveNegative
elasticity
Behavioral
Identity
Exogenous
Beef price
Market clearing
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
Methodological approach
• The case of beef:– how to model direct paymentsLong-term
projections
How it is calculated?
Ceiling
Payments
Cow numbers
Price
Supply
Source: OECD Secretariat
Ceiling
Ceiling
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
• The case of beef:– how to remove direct payments
Price
Supply
Ceiling
Impact of policy changes
Impact of policy changes on total herd size
Price
Supply
S
S
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Expected impact of CAP reform proposals on beef production and prices
Changes in beef production and prices, 2004 - 2009 (%)
-2%
-5%
0%
5%
6%
7%
0%1%
-1%
-3% -3%
0%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Production
Prices
28th February 2003
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Expected impact of proposed CAP reform on cow herd
Changes in cow herd, 2004 - 2009 (%)
28th February 2003
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
% c
han
ge c
om
pare
d t
o b
aseli
ne
Suckler cow herd total cow herd
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
• Detailed statistics are available both from Eurostat and DG Agriculture
• Short and long term projections are regularly published
Conclusions
Data availability
• Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level
• Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level based on large partial equilibrium models
Methodologyand
policy modeling
• Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy
CAP reform
May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2
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European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003
• http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/index_en.htm
References
DG Agricultureweb page
Main publicationsavailable at :
• http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/index_en.htm
• Long term prospects for agricultural markets 2002-2009: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2002/index_en.htm
• CAP reform: Impact analyses of the mid-term review July 2002 proposals: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/reports/mtrimpact/index_en.htm
• Agriculture in the European Union: Statistical and economic information 2001: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/agrista/2001/table_en/index.htm
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