matt mcglone landcare research lincoln conservation & natural systems climate change adaptation...
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Matt McGlone
Landcare Research
Lincoln
Conservation & Conservation & Natural SystemsNatural Systems
Climate Change Adaptation Conference
Wellington
20 May 2009
With mid-range climate warming (+1.8-2.0 oC) :
•1 million species at risk
• greatest threat in “many if not most regions”
Thomas et al. 2004. Nature 427: 145-148.
“Global warming could wipe out a quarter of all species of animals and plants by 2050” – Reuters, Jan 2004.
15 – 37 % of the groups & species modelled (1,103) may eventually be
driven to extinction, if projected global warming scenarios eventuate.
What are the issues for What are the issues for biodiversity?biodiversity?
COCO22
Temperature Temperature
RainfallRainfall
CloudinessCloudiness
Sea level riseSea level rise
Individual species effectsIndividual species effects
COCO22 plants grow more, use less waterplants grow more, use less water
Warmer growing seasons Warmer growing seasons phenology, phenology, abundance & range changeabundance & range change
Less frosty or frost-free winters Less frosty or frost-free winters dittoditto
Wetter – Wetter – little effectlittle effect; drier – ; drier – big effectsbig effects
Community effectsCommunity effects
Wholesale shifts in constituent speciesWholesale shifts in constituent species
Alpine tree line changeAlpine tree line change
Sea level rise: estuaries, sand-dunesSea level rise: estuaries, sand-dunes
Invasives more aggressiveInvasives more aggressive
80-90% of “alpine islands”80-90% of “alpine islands”
200 to 300 alpine plant species 200 to 300 alpine plant species (33-50%)(33-50%)
Similar % alpine invertebratesSimilar % alpine invertebrates
Halloy & Mark 2003. Arctic, Antarctic & Alpine Research 35: 248-254.
NZ alpine losses?NZ alpine losses?
Mt Cook Temperature TrendsMt Cook Temperature Trends
0
2
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Year
Me
an
Te
mp
era
ture
s
Mean Annual Temperature
Mean Summer Temperature
Mean Winter Temperature
Linear (Mean Summer Temperature)
Linear (Mean Winter Temperature)
Red billed gulls & IDPO?Red billed gulls & IDPO?
Seeding summer Stoat summerMouse summer
Beechseedfall
Mice
Stoats
Birds breedin summer
Seed-mice-stoat-bird cycle
Last summerfor birds
year
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Log
(se
ed
pro
duct
ion
+1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mea
n d
aily
max
imu
m t
em
per
atu
re d
urin
gflo
ral p
rimor
dia
dev
elo
pm
ent
(o C
)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17Beech seed & temperature
Temperature
Seed
Maximum temperature during primordia development (oC)
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Log
mea
n nu
mbe
r of
see
ds /
m2
0
1
2
3
4
5pre-1990
post- 1990
Richardson et al 2005. Ecology
Beech seedversus temperature atflower initiation
•27 known
•Major pests
•Temperature sensitive
1 2
7
111
16
57
11
20
1711
15
6
1 2
7
111
16
57
11
20
1711
15
6
Exotic ants in New Zealand
Where we are at nowWhere we are at now 70% deforested 70% deforested
90% wetlands destroyed90% wetlands destroyed
>2000 exotic plant spp. Naturalised>2000 exotic plant spp. Naturalised
40% of avian fauna extinct 40% of avian fauna extinct
32 mammal, 34 birds and 19 fish spp. 32 mammal, 34 birds and 19 fish spp. NaturalisedNaturalised
Fire commonFire common
Fertiliser over 50% of landscapeFertiliser over 50% of landscape
Current range Decline since 19705% 75%17% 20%20% 6%2% 90%5% 70%60% ?4% 32%
Kokako (NI)MohuaWrybillDactylathus
Lesser Short-tailed batKiwiKaka
Species
Representative trends
Ranges have reduced in 38% (25/66) endemic birds
Source: NZ Environment 2007; Atlas of Bird Distribution in NZ 1999-2004
What are the major threats to What are the major threats to land biodiversity over next 25 land biodiversity over next 25
years?years?
1 Pests 2 Weeds3 New diseases & pathogens4 Agricultural intensification5 Draining of wetlands6 Coastal development7 Climate change
Major threats to freshwater Major threats to freshwater biodiversity over next 25 biodiversity over next 25
years?years?
1 Hydro2 Irrigation3 Exotic spp4 New diseases & pathogens5 Pollution6 Climate change
Major threats to marine Major threats to marine biodiversity over next 25 biodiversity over next 25
years?years?1 Commerical fishing2 Harbour/estuary reclamation3 Recreational fishing4 Marine farming5 Exotic spp6 Climate change
Climate change
• clear issue
• well understood
• universal, credible threat
• available cheap solutions
• pathway forward
• capped costs
• distributed risks/burden
• economic upside
Biodiversity loss
• unclear issue
• poorly understood
• patchy, ignorable threat
• few low-cost solutions
• no clear pathway
• unlimited costs
• localised risks/burdens
• little economic upside
Some Wellington thoughts…Some Wellington thoughts…
‘There is no cross-government support for biodiversity….’
‘If we gave you more money, you’d just go out and name more things…..
‘Why don’t you just model biodiversity – NIWA have done it for climate change’
‘Looking after New Zealand’s biodiversity is a bottomless pit. – you could spend the health budget. You never have enough money to do the work you’d like to do.’
Al Morrison – Director General DoCMarch 07 North & South.
Tylianakis et al. 2008Ecology Letters 11: 1351
“..higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems.”
‘Projections of impacts will be aided by a better mechanistic understanding of ecological, behavioural, and evolutionaryresponses to complex patterns of climate change, and in particular to impacts of extreme weather and climate events.’
Camille Parmesan: Annual Rev. Evol. Syst. 2006 27: 637-669
Climate risk analysisClimate risk analysis
Is there a risk to biodiversity?Is there a risk to biodiversity?
If so, what can we do?If so, what can we do?
At what cost?At what cost?
How does it stack up?How does it stack up?
Yes
Not much
High
Not well
Final thoughts
But, what is good for biodiversity short-term will be good in the long-term too, mostly
We are unlikely to get the predictive power to act preemptively on climate change
We are unlikely to be funded to do preemptive actions anyway
Grateful for information from:Grateful for information from:Rod Hay (DOC) Rod Hay (DOC)
Jenny Christie (DOC)Jenny Christie (DOC)Bill Lee (LCR)Bill Lee (LCR)
Sarah Richardson (LCR)Sarah Richardson (LCR)Janet Wilmshurst (LCR)Janet Wilmshurst (LCR)
Richard Duncan (Lincoln Uni)Richard Duncan (Lincoln Uni)Phil Hulme (Lincoln Uni)Phil Hulme (Lincoln Uni)
Melanie Harsch (Lincoln Uni)Melanie Harsch (Lincoln Uni)Wendy Ruscoe (LCR)Wendy Ruscoe (LCR)Susan Walker (LCR)Susan Walker (LCR)
John Leathwick (NIWA)John Leathwick (NIWA)Theo Stephens (DOC)Theo Stephens (DOC)James Barringer (LCR)James Barringer (LCR)
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