mastering hype cycle - sofia
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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.
These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
Mastering the Hype Cycle:How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time
Mark Raskino
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Hype Frustration
I cant think of anything that isnt cloud computingwith all of these announcements. The computerindustry is the only industry that is more fashion-
driven than womens fashion. Maybe Im an idiot,but I have no idea what anyone is talking about.What is it? Its complete gibberish. Its insane.When is this idiocy going to stop?
Larry Ellisons Brilliant Anti-Cloud Computing Rant
Wall Street Journal: September 25, 2008
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The greatest benefits of globalization willaccrue to countries and groups that can
access and adopt new technologies.Indeed, a nations level of technologicalachievement generally will be defined interms of its investment in integrating and
applying the new, globally availabletechnologies.
US National Intelligence Council, Mapping the
Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence
Councils 2020 Project, December 2004
Innovation Necessity
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Key Issues
Why do organizations repeatedly fall victimto hype-driven innovation adoption, evenwhen they know about the hype cycle?
How can organizations design or adapt aprocess that drives smarter adoptiondecisions?
What techniques do industry leaders useto track, prioritize, evaluate and driveinnovation into the business?
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Invention
Images: world.honda.com, http://www.pal-robotics.com/
AsimoReem-B
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Trigger
Second MP3
player 1998
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Hype
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Collage of positive news hype clippings here
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Hype
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Hype Happens
Posi t ive
Hype
Negative
Hype
Innovation
Trigger
InflatedExpectations
Trough of
DisillusionmentExpe
ctations
Time
Irrational exuberance
Novelty preference
Social contagion Competitive Pressure
Overcoming inertia Imagination
Marketing
Confirmation bias
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Elements
Expectations due
to excitement
and aspiration
EmergingEmbryonic
Early
MainstreamAdolescent
Expectations due to
engineering &
business progress
Technology
Trigger
Peak of
InflatedExpectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
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Hype Cycle
Innovation
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Trough of
Disillusionment
Positive
Hype
Negative
Hype
of Innovation
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Expectations
ex pec t tion Pronunciation [ek-spek-tey-shuhn]
noun
1. the act or the state of expecting: to wait in expectation.
2. the act or state of looking forward or anticipating.
3. an expectant mental attitude: a high pitch of expectation.
4. something expected; a thing looked forward to.
?
You can find proxy indicator for expectations
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150
100
50
millions
1998 2000 20042002
NEWS REFS80000
40000
70000
60000
50000
30000
10000
0
20000
1990 19981996 2002 2004 20061994 20001992
News References for Business Model
Hype Cycle
Articles using the term business model
Source:
Source:
Source: Gartner using Yahoo!
Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005
Foreign Direct Investment In China
Source: Gartner using Factiva.
..Everywhere
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Its Everywhere
Management Trends
News References for Business Model
Hype Cycle
NEWS REFERENCES
80000
40000
70000
60000
50000
30000
10000
0
20000
1990 19981996 2002 2004 20061994 20001992
Number of articles using the termbusiness model from 1990 to 2006
Source: Gartner research using Factiva.
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Its Everywhere
Stock Prices
150
100
50
millions
1998 2000 200420021
Source: Gartner and Yahoo! Inc
Amazon stock price, 1998 to 2005
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Predictive
InternetWeb
U.S. IPOs1997/1998
Dot.ComBegins
U.S.
Christmas1998
Dot.ComShake-out
PublicizedE-Failures
Business
Disillusionment
TrueE-BusinessEmerges
OptimizedE-Business
Post-NetBusinesses
European IPOs1999
E Is Best
Investor Disil lusionment
Dot.Com ShareFallout
Brick-and-Mortar Failures
Gartner E-business Hype Cycle as Published in 1999
Gartner Analyst
Alex Drobik.
Were not
saying Gartner
predictions are
infallible! Just
this is a
proven thinking
tool
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Traps
Time
Slope of EnlightenmentTrough of
Disillusionment
Peak ofInflated
Expectations
InnovationTrigger
Plateau ofProductivity
Expectation
s
Adopting
too early
Giving up
too soon
Hanging on
too long
Adopting
too late
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Opportunities
Time
Slope of EnlightenmentTrough of
Disillusionment
Peak ofInflated
Expectations
InnovationTrigger
Plateau ofProductivity
Expectation
s
Getting thejump oncompetitors
Optimizingsupplierrelationships
Finding your
angleAcquiring talent
Maximizing publicity value
Banking yourexperience
Planning yourpurchases
Leading themainstreamwave
Leveraging lowercosts and risks
Expanding a niche
Imaginingthe implications
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STREET
Goal: Identify and invest in the rightemerging technologies and methods
early enough to gain advantage, but late enough to manage risk.
TransferEvaluateTrack
Scope EvangelizeInnovationCandidates
Rank
Model for Proactive Technology Innovation Management
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Who
Individual managersinnovating locally must master the Hype Cycle?
Corporate
innovation leaders
Specialist emerging trends &
technologies groups
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Value from the Hype Cycle tool
In an economic downturn
Type A Activity Zone
Type B Activity Zone
Type C Activity Zone
EXPECTATIONS
TIME
Be selectively
aggressive withadvanced cost cuttinginnovations e.g. Cloud
Revise your portfoliomix to the new
business risk posture
Prevent premature
cancellations in the trough
(e.g. Web 2.0, RFID)
Hide early radartracking
But dont KILL it!
Attack the
bog ofdiminishing
returns
INNOVATIONTRIGGER
PEAK OF INFLATED
EXPECTATIONS
TROUGH OF
DISILLUSIONMENT
SLOPE OF
ENLIGHTENMENT
PLATEAU OF
PRODUCTIVITY
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Your Next Steps
Today (Monday Morning)
Identify who is responsible for your companys innovation activities.
Triage upcoming and recently-funded initiatives, using the hype cycle
Near Future (The Next 12 Months)
Create your own company & industry hype cycle based on Gartner research
Builda robust process for selectively aggressive technology innovation
Ensure the process encourages central, business unit & grass roots initiatives
Masterthe hype cyclean understanding of this repeating business pattern will serve you well
throughout your future career
Technology Planners, CTOs, EA leads, CIOs & CEOs (of small cos) should
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Gartner research analysts publish over 50 different topic area
hype cycles each year, covering over 1000 technologies
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AVAILABLE WHEREVER
BOOKS ARE SOLD
WWW.HARVARDBUSINESS.ORG/PRESS
Visit
www.gartner.com/hypecycle
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Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view.These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner.
Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: vendor.relations@gartner.com.Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner Inc or its affiliates
Mastering the Hype Cycle:How to Choose the Right Innovation at the Right Time
Mark Raskino
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