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~ Dav-id 08-Stewart K. FischerEric R. Gmdes
aummrrmm Probabilistic Wety ~ t lbfwal Meeting (I%A ‘Y6J
~--=3: 19%Park City, Utnh
A:amos National LaboratoryAkmms, New Mexico 87545
mwluBunm OF THls DocUMEw W WMITED MASTER
About This ReportThis official electronic version was created by scanning the best available paper or microfiche copy of the original report at a 300 dpi resolution. Original color illustrations appear as black and white images.
For additional information or comments, contact:
Library Without Walls Project Los Alamos National Laboratory Research LibraryLos Alamos, NM 87544 Phone: (505)667-4448 E-mail: lwwp@lanl.gov
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QUANTITATIVE HAZAXU ASSESSMENT OF A US LXPiWIMENT OF ENERGYNUCLEAR EXPM)SWE OPERATION
Ihw+d OiMUL acetvanR Fldter. am?Eric R. GedesPmbdJWStic Risk ad Xazsud AmIlyds Group&q@er@ Scknce and AfJ@[catlom Group
L4MMan-ns NatkmaI Labtumog
ABsTRAcr
QUdJlildli\-C H ~. ts (Q-1 arcb;ng wed to supporthe US &ptIIUJJenLuf Encrg}-Megr4cd SafetyPrcws56S21 J.Nuclem Expksive Way %dy Group.d Envirunmentd Sdetyand Hedtb muauw- Tbe W& dreused 10 idcmih tidds dssumatedwilh tIuclc8rcdhiwOpel-awns In\-ol\”ltlgtdlng-d pmcdurd proccsbei -
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The SS-21progrJIIuwas LLscdto itmgnitehe ab~ LofhulrdswldldxtheWhy of nuclearexplosive Opelariotls Tbrce ~ of he specific nucsurWUmceplUce55hnvcbetmpcrfortnedorllte inpt’ogmss.
o A ruugkul hzurd tlsscssmerud &e hqgh-risk-nmm of UPUIILMIAm ntiinuzc .del}improvements duringsttlmequcmprocess de~n WOmplaedi.
- A bdsdme hazard~umt of currentoperatiom to fares efforis on A reducmm andus-k overall unprovcmentfoUowng process rcdesgn IirJ~i.
o A tt’11~ ~ Loi bawds presentm ~mnceptud and id aoluuom to unpru~c delj-1m progrcssl.
=-h Ui theseQHh h~ lhrccpnmdty (lbJCCUVCS.
● To facdiuuc k imegmtion of safety nuo J.LICdcsIgn of & nwkar cxpIowvc-mbly/ -disasmbly process throughearly lacnuiicauoa of bmuds
● To suppcmthe Idenuficauon of Poswblc itutmnngcvenrs and acctdcm sccnarms ior W- nskmsemncm of k nuclearcxploswe assernbl}/dtsnsscmbly process
● Toad m mcrmg dE Occupnuond Safay and HealthAdminutrnmn process sniq-ttUIMgCMCIM ~Ul~CdS IOr& tluCkU cX@lISIVC X!wmldyhiu’nlbly prc!cew%
The qxxxfu nuclcnrcxplosIkc prchrnhmryQHA Ithe rnLJgP+xt swncnf Iw--- uced m um; memxc:s dmgn mmm on problemnmns. Ttus pap Ml wmmuu—mthe @imwg (JI{A JIM h~w- nJ?JcusedCM dcsgn tcntm on rheproblcm xx rmtntiby the r==c=wncm
L l!’uTRODUCIIOIN
The lmqmrcd SzfcL)-Process iSS.2 IIprqyu’m which tntegrnks cnwmumm. SW@. and ltd[h(ES&LHJ A nucleurcxplowe sday reqwctttents undsr it single program.USC%tptmmmve kc-.GSCM?WnLSfOHA%Ju kicnufy ucaclctm duu be cbepotential for wxl(er inyu’yand puhlk hdth wcnwunmem.d unpiw. Tk SS -2I programrc uuts the hzard ~wnenl m ~mmtc [ti-ormmlontoMJPIYUIIthe Wlwmg requircmem- cvaluatfiL hkcltumd of accident scquauwi duu hmw thewad fur wrker cmmbh IJUUryurcnmumncttud tkunqm. tdenmy ukty.cnncul toohng muPruccdurul>lc~h ldcnuf} IuPCIMUUIldwfcl; ~unmh. ldcnul~ 3KiCt~-C!A%’~hl~niIiL~l+ *utm. Mmcturo
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DECLAIMER
Portionsof thisdocumentmaybe illegiblein electronicimageproducts Images areproducedfrom the b- availableoriginaldocument.
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ad. r.%.idmlify dofnmant uidenr Sqmcu. dammame that he hdlq SE.@ Aal}s~=dcs@-b&sis mdeflf alvcbps pfoms-spcitk =ldcnu: ad pmlllcc a hzard AmKiHMJtim&dM~fti-%~~ld*im
To dckcss this muluurik of rquknHs beulg implmi on k pucm tMxMclMhsrlmw kAlzImo5N*MXCmuXy !lsmckdopd aQHAmabndoIogy blbcwolw%lfromwOss#smenldhl!rcsamduCldmrh cbhA18nXhPlu lmlhJm%cillIy. nlcmerhodolog} @nowbcemdtocodw~llazxrd~ roclkB61xndwHdiamdmm LC~ffO1’ls’-& @ irsik~el@MWsWVabccpmgmlm
u PROGRAM G’(MI4
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AsdduItsmqmaouawdam~----------.--.-------,.----=---,I I 1 1 1
Flgum 1. IntcgratodHazad Asscssmcnt Prcwxs
A- EIAPrcpamt&lo
TIN suaxss of u QHA relics heavily on rimconqmsinon and competency of the analysts IaanLavailatnlily of infmnanon 8baul ho ~ dm bards assocd wnh the mchwdumlcoqmnom;=ihncs m wluch h process takes
r.undttwzhllsandtmint ofdwpwsotmd@mnmg
process cL
3atlonbEachlnwnlmr chsHAmInmwtkknow goahklnnacormorcaspcc[s{S@fiK mWyImccaa boi~ SNCM. R’ocescMormatlon should he colkctcd and nqynizamannertofditate itsuscduring the QHA umwstcm with ttx maIuntyof tk proms c!cmgn. hutwhen ody I inforrualial abola tcs, Ihc fac:hy, and todmg and qulprnW dcsigr
Soathaldon on and nunmuzauon of acnvnws with Ihcpotcmml usigndkanl rids.
lk Acddenl-SequmICChkd(lcutkn
XWcralWard Usw-nm amr
hrmod m part0[ lhc SS-2 I prtwtm” * pmlnmnmy htizurdwmswncnl of the cxhting pn~ nicnm haJ4MIMICMmnthof ccmccptualpmcchs mqmwcmcmd ;mal huurd ~cmcm d the tmd pmccw. TIMMCpSI-waccl{knwqucncc dmtllwauem mwwmally the watnatorixh aSSCMMCIU. “Ilwhusic stqx pcrtonncd duringW 11Apmcc+ m
I. flow charlmg the proccm,‘ mtull acmdml-sqcncc klcnulkamm,
i dclalkd Xwk4wiqlwlcc Kkutllklulm mu4. M ptuKXsaWaluuuon.
!. ~ksw ti~ tbC1~ A%lhC-w nWtlUW,~!llrC~ Wll ~. UUd [0 tkVOki Uhdl~rllln GtIikl-W lhMt:UlXU@8thCWJIMiy&%W!!lVltmk.~lCUM@Ch0[ h@JVCl ~(KCh%[k)w L’lUl
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Table 1. Consqucncc sCVCri~ hqyrics
3=~—--sa=-= Amorcdcradcdrevtcwofmcp ~lsccmducwdMlowinzcmIcvicw(lf~scmmos. rmKCssuscd lsumilarmchc HAX)PnrocCSS.’ wtuchmmws-~ a scrs of‘*gusdcwe ad _pmmxus-’ Tim ~ U#dlukacuvnJc&-Iurns. am ul~ ml cmdums. Tk wxwiks uxludc cvayhinf b I%to be ~lisbcd m *-m q ~widuntksudyad. lkgudcwordsw~uscdlocnsurc~~~ not to hrnltU* anal- Thus any useful %haI if’ qumion not suggcsrcd by dxgumc wrrds should be conswkcd m k andym. h fax when such qucssiom arc tdcmiid. kanalyst shoula Iakc*UmclodeHIInc - whckr adawond guide wmvls arc appmpmw.
Afccr the Chingsmat could go wscm$ IMw ban ukmifd. it M ~ toC3LMS. whim add cause [Ix
dcmmunc thempossibleIhc MCXXXX’ Whaf could cause* opcmor
COEJr
aklhllnthc for rcslloval? TM Spcclfx c-s IEcd 10m dcvclqlcd Innlfrlmcm d m dmn CUIWICS Of k probatnluy of me CVCUI.In some c4x3. I: may & pusMblcimap@xcdcv crutohawhccn caucdby. orzpodkkby. ~cowmbuungcwntataprcwau> sudynode. In such ~ W adyst should rccxammc* mwim oi the andyms of ti mudy mxk [0dclcsmu= dnxhcr such● cormbwmg cvmu could II=* awed m csnmxc IC prohabduy
It is dmng [h stage b k pchrnmafy QHA ISotmc iIKpan cf Inc !MIuhnc Hmard As’+cmncntI%cconoblack 01 F%. IJ.
& FEII~Erahmbm 4fwr pdumnwy cvaluauons oi a pmccss have - comim?cd andthe msulk pmcd to dI%crcdcwcnmg k e. a iull cxarnmawn oi he PKCCS mny kgm. Adcuuled qwc&hca ioldming all Ilmsqvi of a procc= is dcYompedand used to document all pnmbleaccIdcMwqucnccs Tnc spmwkhcct IScwrnplcud mrotqtnn thommgncxa.nunwinnot wrmcn
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c. .A.u51kt&J~ QL—lifii . .
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IV. CONDUCT OF PEELWXNARY NUCLEAR Ex?lmmE HAZARD ASESmEm
V. RESULTS OF mEuMrNAEu’ HAZARD ASESSMmi
lWc 3. I%tcnualPnxzs- Uclatcd ACZUknL% Mu NLEXCWlixphmc ~ > Opcmtlms.
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W Iuuud ~num team will h oompkrmg die pmhminaty QHA M ihe bsdiru -s hy-zheend of Sqwmber 1996whik prwidmg cmn[inuowf~ w momhly memm ●d Ilm?fillgsm thepmaess&sign teanMcmanyidditimal problemareas dlscmemd.Thispmhrm&y QHA will prowk arisk mnking of potemial accidems using Table 2 and -imates of dw Iikelhood ad mmquences of ;bc‘kiedkd potential Xidents. in addiuon. hazard Gsstssmmn1 Ieam nwnhers ale park:pan[s on Ik●ariws proi~s deqgn teams. This wiU allow Ihe proce3s design [cams m be kept abrdas[ of mfwrniimifrom ihe badi~- hauwd ~menl a= wdl as wide feedback on tiypis dcvahud by [W [cants
REFERENCES
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