master narratives & global climate change

Master Narratives &

Global Climate Change

Charlie VarsDave BellaCourt Smith

IPCC

January 29, 2013

Why so much debate?

(WG I) assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change

(WG II) assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change

(WG III) assesses options for mitigating climate change and for activities that remove greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere

IPCC Working Groups

Working Group I (Stockholm, Sweden)

23-26 September 2013

Working Group II (Yokohama, Japan)

25-29 March 2014

Working Group III (Berlin, Germany)

7-11 April 2014

Synthesis Report (Copenhagen, Denmark)

27-31 October 2014

The Working Group Reports and Synthesis Report 2013/2014.

2007

Chapter1: Introduction2-4: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, Ocean, Cryosphere (Ice)

5: Information from Paleoclimate Archives6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles7: Clouds and Aerosols8: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing9: Evaluation of Climate Models10: Detection and Attribution : Global to Regional11: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability12: Long-term Climate Change: Projections and Irreversibility13: Sea Level Change14: Climate Phenomena and Future Regional Climate Change

WG I - IPCC Science Outline

SK-II

IPCC WG I Science

IPCC WG II Impact

Socioeconomic

IPCC WG III Policy & Action

Options

Observed impacts, with detection and attribution

Projected integrated climate change impacts, regional variation by scenario and time slice

Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks, key drivers (including extremes)

Alternative development pathways, multiple interacting stresses, uncertainty, valuation of impacts and adaptation

Adaptation and managing risks, practical experiences, lessons learned, barriers, observed and expected limits to adaptation, avoiding maladaptation, planned and autonomous adaptation, potential and residual impacts, thresholds and irreversible changes

WG II - IPCC Impact Assessment Themes

I. INTRODUCTION· Historical, current and future trendsII. FRAMING ISSUES 2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response – policies, uncertainty and risk 3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods 4. SustainableIII. PATHWAYS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE 5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation - Co-benefits, tradeoffs, geoengineering 6. Assessing Transformation Pathways – macroeconomy, technology portfolios 7. Energy Systems 8. Transport 9. Buildings 10. Industry 11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) 12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial PlanningIV. ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCE

WG III - IPCC Policy Outline