massabo lecture day 6

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Collecting, Registering and Harind Disaster loss Data

An Overview of DesInventar Methodology and EU Guidelines

Marco Massabò, Ph.D.CIMA Research Foundation

Disasters: UNISDR definition

A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

There is not general agreement on the definition, disaster are events that generate any kind of damages or losses

Disasters are not that “natural”A debate opposed Rousseau and Voltaire regarding the earthquake of Lisbon in November 1755 (more than 60’000 deaths).

“You say, seeing this mass of victims: Is God’s revenge, they are paying the price for their crimes?"

Voltaire, December 1755

"Without leaving your subject regarding Lisbon, agree, for example, that nature had not collected there twenty thousand houses of six to seven floors; and if the people of this great city had been more equally dispersed and more lightly lodged, the damage would have been much less, even perhaps zero.”J.J. Rousseau 18 August 1756

Less than one year later, Lisbon was already clear from its ruins and in reconstruction process.

Buildings constructed under the Pombal regulations figure among the first examples of earthquake-resistant buildings in the world.

Disasters are not that “natural”

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

“There is no such thing as a 'natural' disaster, only natural hazards.”

Disasters often follow natural hazards. A disaster's severity depends on how much impact a hazard has on society and the environment.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) aims to reduce the damage caused by natural hazards like earthquakes, floods, droughts and cyclones, among many others, through an ethic of prevention.

The scale of the impact of a disaster, in turn, depends on different factors that are linked to human activities. Some examples: Development and effective implementation of building codes.Land use regulations.Institutional organization and policy.Education and knowledge development.Public awareness and early warning.Finance and contingency planning.

Each decision and action makes us more vulnerable to disasters - or more resilient to them.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

GoodDRR

BadDRR

RiskVulnerability Resilience

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

In some cases, it is difficult to avoid hazards. However, we can reduce the risks that are related to them, reducing the impact of disasters. Therefore, DRR has to be considered in all the phases of the disaster risk management (DRM) cycle.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)

Relief

Contingency and

risk financing

Risk knowledge

and education

Preparednessand

mitigation

Disaster

Early warning RecoveryDRMDRR

DRRDRR

DRR

DRR DRR

Making development sustainable: the future of disaster risk management

http://www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/42809

Economic losses in Europe

Three consecutive years: annual economic losses haveexceeded $100 billion globally due to enormous increasein exposure of industrial assets and private property toextreme disaster events.

Europe’s 10-year average of disaster losses totaling toUS$ 13.4 billion makes it the third most affected region in the world after the Americas and Asia;

The Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction released in 2011 indicates that in OECD countries disaster economic losses tend to grow

faster than their average GDP growth;

Most of the damages are due to climatological and hydrometeorological events;

Reduced number of casualties, but high economic losses.

Italy: a disaster prone country

The largest Cultural Heritage patrimoniumworldwide

Emilia Romagna Earthquake 2012Side effects – financial impact

Biomedical factoriesCeramicsParmesanBalsamic vinegarfodder for livestock.....

1,5% GDPGross Domestic Product

Serbia Flood 2014

• The private sector sustained higher values of destroyed assets than the public sector, and that production losses were higher in the public sector domain because of the impact on the mining and energy sector

• Social impact

Summary of estimated damages and losses

Source: SERBIA FLOODS 2014

Serbia Flood 2014

Sector Post-Disaster Needs, million EUR Recovery Reconstruction Total* Agriculture 40.8 111.4 152.1 Manufacturing 16.6 53.3 69.8 Trade 12.9 144.0 157.0 Tourism 0.5 0.7 1.2 Mining and energy 211.8 202.0 413.8 Housing 58.8 204.5 263.3 Education 2.0 4.3 6.3 Health 2.7 4.4 7.1 Culture 0.1 1.2 1.3 Transport - 128.2 128.2 Communications - 12.6 12.6 Water and sanitation 3.5 24.0 27.5 Environment 2.8 38.7 41.5 Governance 2.3 14.1 16.4 Employment 46.4 46.4 Gender 2.0 2.0 Totals 403.0 943.5 1,346.4

Summary of estimated recovery and reconstruction needs

• Recession of 0,5% instead of growth 0,5%1% GDP• Reduction od exportation and increasing of importations

results in 1% of GDP• Fiscal position will deteriorate further by about 1% of GDP

Only 2% of damage and losses covered by insurance and reinsurance (source Ministry of Finance of Serbia)

The topic raising at the top of the international agenda:Attendance to the WCDRR

Innovations• Shift from disaster loss to disaster risk• Shift from disaster management to disaster risk

management;• Shift from “what to do?” to “how to do?”• Focus on people-centred preventive approach to DRR• Primary responsibility of States for DRR• Shared responsibility for DRR with stakeholders• Scope includes slow-onset, man-made and bio hazards;• Set of global targets; Set of guiding principles;• Promoting Coherence across post-2015 development

agenda

Innovations• Articulation of governance to manage disaster risk,

including role of national platforms;• Understanding, tackling disaster risk drivers;• Preparedness to “build back better”;• Strengthened accountability for disaster risk management;• Recognition of stakeholders and their roles;• Mobilization of risk-sensitive investment;• Global and Regional Platforms vehicles for coherence,

monitoring and periodic reviews;• Resilience of health infrastructures, cultural heritage, and

work places;

Expected Outcome

• Focus on disaster risk in addition to earlier focus on disaster loss in Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)

• Focus on livelihoods, health and physical and cultural assets, in addition to lives and social, economic and environmental assets

“The substantial reduction of disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in the economic, physical, social, cultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, communities and countries” (paragraph 16)

Goal

• Focus on preventing new disaster risks, reducing existing disaster risks that also strengthen resilience

• Calls various measures to prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability, increase preparedness and recovery

“Prevent new and reduce existing disaster risk through the implementation of integrated and inclusive economic, structural, legal, social, health, cultural, educational, environmental, technological, political and institutional measures that prevent and reduce hazard exposure and vulnerability to disaster, increase preparedness for response and recovery, and thus strengthen resilience” (paragraph 17)

What is disaster risk?UNISDR definition: “The combination of the probability of an event and its negative consequences.”

Intensity of the hazards (e.g.): height of floods or seismic magnitude)

Loss

es(%

)

Risk

Expected occurrence of differentintensities of events for a specific area

Persons and assets present in the hazard zone

Index (0-1) or percentage of the potential losses resulting from different physical, social, economic and environmental factors.

HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY

R = (H x E x V)

Risk Assessment

HAZARD, EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY

Landslide Risk

HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY

What is disaster risk?

Volcanic Risk

HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY

What is disaster risk?

What is disaster risk?

Risk assessments: a way of reducing disaster impacts?

What is disaster risk?

Risk Assessments are the methodology for determining the nature and the extent of risks.

How? By examining the technical characteristics of the hazards such as their localisation, their intensity, their frequency and their probability. Moreover, it’s about the analysis of the social exposure and vulnerability, including physical, economic, environmental and health factors. This allows to evaluate the efficiency of the capacities to respond and to cope with the probable risks.

• Implies a large amount of information• Complex models are needed• Focuses in certain hazards• Varies over time!

Risk ManagementLoss Accounting

Risk Modelling

Hazard 1 Hazard 2 Hazard 3 Hazard n

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Risk retention Risk transferRisk reduction Others…

Updating and follow-up

Risk Management Strategy 1

Risk Management Strategy 2

Risk Management Strategy 3

Risk Management Strategy n

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

1

2

3 Tool Kit-Policy options

But… Without information it is very difficult to establish the

context. Registering the losses is therefore a key aspect to know

what is happening and to take actions to reduce future impacts.

Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013 Direct losses are at least 50% more than the ones registered

internationally.

Disaster Loss DatabasesEM-DAT

Private Insurance and Re-insurance companies

ECLAC-WB: Damage and Loss Assessment methodology (DaLA)

National databases

Global coverage Data is not freely available Only Analysis reports are shared Developed for the insurance market

National level of observation, data with sub-national level of resolution. Methodologies are heterogeneous, hampering global comparison. Not frequently updated.

National level of observation, data with sub-national level of resolution. Consistent methodology Only assesses losses from large scale (intensive) disasters Does not have global coverage

Global coverage Mortality: <10 people Number of affected: <100 people Economic losses: are present in less than 30% of the records Global level of observation, national level resolution

EM-DAT Profile: Belarus Frequency (number of events

registered)

EM-DAT Profile: Belarus Mortality (number of deaths)

EM-DAT Profile: Belarus Affected people (number of affected)

EM-DAT Profile: Belarus Economic Loss (Damages in US$ millions)

DisaggregationDefinition: “Separate (something) into its component parts”

Losses in Honduras6 600 deaths8 052 disappeared2 100 000 affected170 bridges destroyed70 % roads damaged

Losses in Honduras14 600 deaths 2 112 000 affected3 793 millions US$ of losses

Aggregated information Disaggregated information

Extensive and Intensive disastersIntensive disasters: is used to describe high-severity, mid to low-frequency disasters,

mainly associated with major hazards.Extensive disasters: is used to describe low-severity, high-frequency disasters, mainly but

not exclusively associated with highly localized hazards.

After a series of statistical and mathematical analyses, the thresholds for extensive disaster finally obtained that an extensive disaster is when:

Mortality: less than 30 people killed. Housing destruction: less than 600 houses destroyed

100 – 1 0001 000 – 10 000

11- 1010 – 100

> 10 000

No data

Extensive Intensive

Frequency 10 times per year

Frequency 1 time every 10

years

Frequency 1 time every

10’000 years

1 million USD 1 billion USD

Extensive

Intensive

High frequency Low severity

Low frequency High severity

Extensive and Intensive disasters

Extensive and Intensive Risk Management

Loss Accounting

Risk Modelling

Hazard 1 Hazard 2 Hazard 3 Hazard n

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Risk retention Risk transferRisk reduction Others…

Updating and follow-up

Risk Management Strategy 1

Risk Management Strategy 2

Risk Management Strategy 3

Risk Management Strategy n

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Portfolio 1Assets and people

at risk

Tool Kit-Policy options

Extensive

Intensive

Extensive and Intensive disasters

The risk we will have “to live with…”

4

Residual risk

4 Residual risk

High frequency Low severity

Low frequency High severity

1

Risk reduction

Risk reduction1

Corrective: Building retrofitting, mitigation strategies.

2

Risk retention2 Risk

retention

Prospective: Financial reserves, public investment, laws and regulations.

Compensatory: Insurance, contingency funds.

3

Risk transfer

3 Risk transfer

The typical situations (that should be avoided):

No systematic accounting of losses Precious information is lost Difficulty to determine long-term impacts Difficulty to understand disaster risk trends and changes Difficulty to determine vulnerabilities (of infrastructure, buildings

and people)

There is no way to learn from the past!

Accounting the losses

DesInventar A historical disaster loss database. A tool for collecting disaster loss data Contains a set of tools for analysing the data, such as:

-Hazard profile (impacts)-Temporal analysis-Spatial analysis-Cause-effect analysis-Statistical analysis (mean, standard deviation, etc.)

But more importantly, DesInventar proposes a methodology that allows to develop analysis in a comparative way between the countries that have joined the initiative.

DesInventarDesInventar, the methodology: Proposes an homogeneous data collection at all scales. Information is compiled and registered in a relatively small geographic scale.

Some ideas that inspired the project: Disasters are related to development. The impact of disasters is increasing. The impact of small and mid-scale disasters are highly relevant. Small and mid-scale disasters reveal the vulnerabilities. “Natural” disasters are not that “natural”.

Databases on disaster occurrence and lossesThere are multiple global and multi-peril database operators and several hundred national, regional, hazard-based, and specialised sector-based databases worldwide.

Main Issue: Use of different hazard terminologies and definitions

DesInventar (data from 1851 -

2013)

DesInventar (data from

1980 - 2010)

EM-DAT (data from 1980 -

2010)

Number of events

4,305 2,746 23

Number of people killed

1,652 484 163

The event with the highest mortality

Earthquake Snowstorm Extreme temperature

Economic damage ($ X

1,000)95,552 89,758 24,673

The event with the highest

economic lossFlood of 2010 Floods and flash

floods of 2010 Flood of 2002

The most frequent events

Forest fires (957 events) Forest fires(662) Floods (9 events)

Recommendations Choose an optimal scale and the administrative boundaries Select specific names and codes Search for data from 1980 or 1990 Select the sourcesHow to do if… Disaggregated data is not available? There are differences between the sources regarding the same

event? If an event is followed by another event? If an event hits different geographical units? Slow-onset events?

DesInventar

Situation in Europe

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Main differences • Data structure• Methodology/standard used• Mandated organizations• Hazard types covered

…revealed so farDetected activites in loss recording Planning loss database

Important similarities• At least municipality scale• By sectors

…sometimes there is even more than one initative within a country, usually not related, to serve different application areas (governemntal, academic, insurances, …)

Detected activites in loss recording but no contacts

Disaster loss data are key for DRR

Loss Data is important for DRR• Carnegie meeting 2012• Global Platform for DRR• EU-US dialogue

Existing initiatives• CRED EM-DAT• UN: UNDP, UNISDR (GAR)• IRDR Loss Data WG• Insurance industry• PDNA, DALA

Loss data for DRR: accounting• Prioritize DRR actions• Assess effectiveness of DRR

Loss data beyond DRR• Risk modelling

Validation and calibration• Forensics

What went wrong?• Accounting

Risk transfer, Solidarity Fund, etc.

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Study of Commission: opportunities and challenges in EU context• Why loss data: various policies in EU• What is loss data: definitions, scope of work

Direct, indirect, private, public, etc.• Conceptual model

3 application areas: accounting, forensics, risk assessment Dimensions: Scale (precision) and scope (coverage)

• State of the art: ISDR, EM-DAT, DALA, MunichRe, UNDP, US, SL• Technical recommendation: using existing standards• Implementation issues: options, given existing systems in MS• Way forward: dedicated working group with MS

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Applications: more than accounting

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Disaster Loss Database: the European approach

EU guidelines - JRC – European Commission

1. Recommendations of technical requirements for recording disaster losses at EU level, 2013

2. Current status and Best Practices for Disaster Loss Data recording in EU Member States, 2014

3. Guidance for recording and sharing Disaster Damage and Loss Data, 2015

Guidance for recording and sharing Disaster Damage and Loss Data, 2015

1. Propose a minimum set of loss indicators for sharing loss data among organizations, among Member States and with EU and international institutions

2. Recommends simplified aggregate figures following a common data exchange format

3. Address not only national levels but also subnational and extends to the European and international dimensions of disaster loss recording

Time for questions?

Thanks