marvin r. clark managing principal chief economist and strategist june 30, 2009 scottsdale, arizona...

Marvin R. ClarkManaging Principal

Chief Economist and Strategist

June 30, 2009Scottsdale, Arizona

Monsoon Wealth Management

Born: May 4, 1979

10 Downing Street,London,

SW1A 2AA

R.I.P.Born: August 27, 1859Died: September 17,

2008

Great Society Programs 1964-1968 Vietnam War 1959-1975 Suspending the gold standard 1971 The 1st oil embargo 1973 Inexperienced workforce 1972-1982 Antiquated manufacturing facilities The 2nd oil embargo 1979 Excessive money supply growth

• Falling oil prices 1981-2000• Falling interest rates 1981-2008• Deregulation• Cheap domestic labor 1986-2007• The information and digital age• Personal computer 1981• NAFTA• Globalization• The Internet• Cheap Capital

• Cowboy Capitalism• Leverage• Exotic investment products• Lax supervision• Deficit spending• Derivatives• Lowered underwriting standards• O.P.M. (other peoples’ money)• No Fear

• Dot.com stocks• Real Estate• Blue chip stocks

• 20th century debt; 21st century cash flow• Tapped out consumers• Gasoline shock• Overvalued real estate• Toxic assets• Accelerating wealth destruction• Saving banks; destroying banking• TARP

• An L shaped recovery• Multi-year credit contraction• Re-regulation• Low, low growth• Higher taxes• Later on, inflation• China’s driving• A reduced standard of living in America

• Prepare for a real “black swan”• Do not worship false green shoots• Buy gold and TIPS soon• Avoid stocks and bonds now• Buy real estate for income only• Reassess the future• Don’t believe Wall Street most days