market updates and stories - convention management · mainland chinese key outbound countries...

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Market Updates and StoriesNew Zealand Hotel Industry Conference 2019

Jesper Palmqvist | Area Director Asia Pacific | STR

Cordis Auckland 10 June 2019

jpalmqvist@str.com

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General trend shows slowdown

Total APAC, Supply & Demand Growth, R12 May 2018 – 2019

2018 2019

Supply Demand

2018 2019

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2018 shifted growth to softer in generalMany varying reasons at play

APAC Selected Key Countries, RevPAR Growth, FY 2018, Local Currency

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2019 by May provided additional movements

APAC Selected Key Countries, RevPAR Growth, YTD May 2019, Local Currency

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Many things affecting destinations

Economics

Source markets

Tourism growth

GeopoliticsInfra-

structure

Master planning

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With arrivals growth slowing down in paceR12 April 2014 – 2019, Source: Stats NZ

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It’s not across the board – US growthNZ Top 5 Markets (Excluding Australia), R12 April 2017 – 2019, Source: Stats NZ

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Arrivals Seasonality – Jan and April new heights – peak slightly behindGlass half full or half empty? Where do you prefer it to grow faster?

New Zealand IVAs, FY 2016 – 2019 Apr by month, Source: Stats NZ

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Tho

usa

nd

s

2016 2017 2018 2019

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Mainland Chinese Key Outbound Countries – APAC, FY 2018, Source: PATA & Tourism Authorities

7.4% 13.9% 23.9% 14.9% -8.1% 2.1% 67.2% 5.5% 29.6%0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Thailand Japan Vietnam SouthKorea

Singapore Indonesia Cambodia Australia Philippines

Mill

ion

sStrong movements in Chinese OUTBOUND traffic

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Chinese travellerstourism

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InfrastructureGrowth paceState-owned

domestic

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So last year I said that 2019 will be a very active yearWith over 8,000 new rooms across the country

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And the results are telling – Rooms have openedWhile Demand Growth dropped to the lowest level since 2013

Total New Zealand, Supply & Demand Growth, R12 May 2017 – 2019

0.7% 0.7% 2.5%1.9% 1.9% 1.0%

2017 2018 2019

Supply Demand

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It’s just not just here. It’s everywhere.Future pipeline is stronger than before

Top 10 APAC, Under Contract Pipeline, by Total Number of Rooms, as of May 2019

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Now: Almost 10,000 rooms are on the wayUpper Tier Classes remains attractive

New Zealand – Under Contract Pipeline by Chain Scale, by Total Number of Rooms, as of May 2019

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Pace? 12% more opening this year – and 40% by end of 2020So it’s a bit less imminent than last year

201912%

40% 2020

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Around 5,000 is expected in Auckland aloneUnder Contract Pipeline, As of 12 June 2019, STR-AMPM Tool for Census & Pipeline

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FrighteningIt’s easy to justput a number up

Total New ZealandRevPAR Growth, YTD May 2019, NZD

YTD May 2019

-3.6%

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Occupancy above 80% - slowdownSupply has slowed growth and the one off boost of 2017’s British and Irish Lions tour

Total New Zealand, Occupancy & ADR Performance, R12 May 2014 – 2019, NZD

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Growth pace shift looks very dramaticConsider the earlier fast pace – that was never long-term sustainable

Total New Zealand, Occupancy & ADR Growth, R12 January 2016 – May 2019, NZD

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Total New Zealand, Absolute Occupancy (%), 2016 – May 2019

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Seasonality growth: Occupancy2016-2018 very similar – and to be fair, 2019 is not too far off

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Seasonality growth: ADRNo growth during peak (luxury coming) – but it’s holding up

Total New Zealand, ADR (NZD), 2016 – May 2019

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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Seasonality facts

June Joy?Low season is picking up

Peak PushFeb & Nov holding ok

Q3 Question markUnlikely to boost.2020 more likely.

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Quite similar across hotel classesUpper Midscale comes from a different growth curve

Total New Zealand, RevPAR Growth by Class, R12 May 2017 – 2019, NZD

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Reacting to changing market conditionsNew Zealand patters

It is more at property level

Not driven by brandNot driven by classNot driven by location (Ok, Auckland more – but more hotels)

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Over 50% of hotels dropped Occupancy – and 27% in ADR as well

What does it mean with an increased spread of outliers?

Individual hotels data, Occupancy & ADR Growth, R12 May 2019, NZD

30% 21%

21%

+20%

-15%

-20% +30%

27%

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Supply growth expected – but some softer Demand growthWellington and Rotorua – we had slightly higher expectations in rooms sold

Total New Zealand, Supply & Demand Growth by Key Markets, R12 May 2019

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But the real story is in sustaining growth: Rotorua and QueenstownConversely, Christchurch and Auckland could not continue the pace

Total New Zealand, RevPAR Growth by Key Markets, R12 May 2018 – 2019, NZD

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Christchurch | Limited demand drop from terror attacks

Total Christchurch, Demand growth (%), 1 Mar-18Jun 2019, Daily Data

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That supply growth curve will continue to grow

Total Auckland, Supply & Demand Growth, R12 January 2017 – May 2019

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Continues to be driven by transient business

Total Auckland, Transient vs Group Demand, R12 January 2017 – May 2019

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70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2019 f 2020 f

Auckland Occupancy: Goodbye 80s?

Total Auckland, Occupancy Performance, January 2017 – May 2019

Pressure and some softening also in 2020 expected

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$40 less than last year during High SeasonSome hope for ADR moving forward

Total Auckland, ADR Performance, January 2017 – May 2019, NZD

$170

$190

$210

$230

$250

$270

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2019 f 2020 f

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Weekdays? Same as earlier – weekday holding up better+80% Tuesday through Thursday - Corporate travel holding up

Total Auckland, Occupancy Performance by Day of Week, R12 May 2017 – 2019

Tuesday & Wednesday - There were more busy nights this yearSaturday - there were fewer

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Similarly in ADR – Weekend takes a step back

Total Auckland, ADR Performance by Day of Week, R12 May 2017 – 2019, NZD

Saturday busy nights down 11%. Lower occupancy nights up 1%.

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Across the Tasman

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Contraction also on the other sideNew Supply added in Sydney – Similar conversations around holding rate

Sydney vs Auckland, Occupancy Performance, R12 May 2014 – 2019

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Maintains the smaller difference now established

Sydney vs Auckland, ADR Performance, R12 May 2014 – 2019, AUD, CC

Summary

More markets in Asia are softening

Future pipeline is bigger now across APAC

Shift share to the US? Competition for Chinese is strong.

Over 10,000 rooms in New Zealand

Reminder – Very high earlier – Holding up ok so far

Any rate drop is at hotel level - Not brand, location, class

2019 not looking fab for Q3

Occ to soften 1-2% - Rates should expand to positive RevPAR

Summary

Slowdown

Big Pipe

Arrivals NZ

Busy Building

Rate growth

Pants!

Opportunity

2020 +

© 2019 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.

New Zealand Hotel Industry Conference

Cordis Auckland

2019 June 20

Thank You

Jesper Palmqvist

jpalmqvist@str.com | +65 6800 7850