mark williams - ray white
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Annual Conference - 2012 Shangri-La Hotel, Cairns Tropical North QUEENSLAND 22nd – 26th August 2012
Yields, Price & Volume
Australia & NZ Capital Inflows
As at may 2012
Ray White NZ vs Aus
East Coast Residential Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
sydney house volumes melbourne house volumesbrisbane house volumes sydney median house pricemelbourne median house price brisbane median house price
Source: Real Estate Insitute of Qld, Nsw, Vic & LandMark White Research
Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane median house price and house volumes
What are the main reasons people are buying?
Latest % Month Ago
% Average
%
Fear of missing out/Feel time is right for prices 9.8 14.6 10.9
Trading up 10.9 13.1 14.2
Trading down 10.9 13.9 16
Shifting into town 11.4 16.6 15.3
Arriving from overseas 4 5.5 5.6
Relationship breakdown 8.4 11 12
Commuting costs 1.7 1.8 2.4
Schooling 5.3 9.2 8.2
Want closer proximity to shops 1.3 2.5 2.1
Want closer proximity to relatives 1.5 2.5 2.7
Want closer proximity to health care services 1.2 2.5 2.1
Investing 0.4 0.5 0.5
First home 15.1 2.3 2.2
Earthquake 0.2 0.9 1.5
Good interest rates 16.2 0.7 1.4
Other 1.5 2.6 3.2
Source:
REINZ Residential Survey August 2012
NZ Survey
NZ Survey What are the main factors motivating vendors to sell
Latest %
Month Ago % Average %
They think prices are going to fall 2.4 3.4 3
Need the money 14.1 16.8 18.9
Trading up 11.4 13.5 11.6
Trading down 15.6 16.9 16.4
Leaving town 10.9 14.3 13.8
Leaving the country 6.3 8.7 7.5
Relationship breakdown 13.5 13.9 15.4
Commuting costs 1.2 0.6 1.3
Schooling 2.4 3.9 3.2
Want closer proximity to shops 0.9 1.1 1.1
Want closer proximity to relatives 1.2 2 1.7
Want closer proximity to health care services 1.4 2.6 2.2
Earthquake 0.3 0.2 0.4
Bank request, job loss 0.3 0 0.1
Retirement 9.9 0.2 0.9
Estate sales 6.6 0.1 0.6
Other 1.6 1.7 1.9
Source:
REINZ Residential Survey August 2012
Hong Kong Rents Fall
Source: The Wall Street Journal 13/08/12
American Residential Trends
CBD Office Market
Office Leasing- Mining Activity • Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO) recently Leased 900² in 333 Ann Street.
• GEMCO are a JV between BHP and Anglo American Corp based in South Africa that are expanding their operations in Brisbane after leasing 1,200sqm in Riparian Plaza last
year.
Dubbo Retail Delroy Park Shopping Centre Dubbo • 2,500m² Woolworths • 15 Speciality shops • 3 to be leased • c. $500/m² • 195 Car Parks
• 5 - 6 Woolworths
appointments • More in the Pipeline
Perth Industrial Lease • Annual Rental $1M p.a Tenant: Milne Agrigroup Pty Ltd
• 20yr + 10yr + 5yr + 5yr
• Whole site - 8 h.a • Leased Portion - 6 h.a
Rural Foreign Investment Tanumbirini NT • Sold for $32 M
• 28,000 cattle.
• 1.25 million acres
• Purchased by an English Fund making their first
Australian purchase.
Queensland New Households & Approvals
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
no. o
f sa
les
and
appr
oval
s
quarter ending
queensland new house sales & approvals
new house sales private house approvalsSource: HIA, ABS & LandMark White Research* approvals to March only
First Home Buyers
• First-home buyer activity is rising - 30% rise in sales to first-timers in June, compared to June last year.
• The number of first home owners grants in the June Quarter rose to 5,413, up from 4,005 same time last year. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics and Office of State Revenue
19 Chapman Court, Eimeo Rent from: $480/wk in 2011 $550/wk in 2012
Mackay - Residential
33 Kohuna Sands Resort, Bucasia Rent from: $320/wk in 2011 $350/wk in 2012
Mackay - Residential
1/12 Kent Street, Regency Heights Rent from: $305/wk in Jul 2011 $480/wk in Jan 2012
Gladstone - Residential
13 Delacour Drive Rent from: $340/wk in April 2007 $800/wk in July 2012
Mount Isa - Residential
51 Nautilus Street Sale Price: $720,000 in July 2006 $450,000 in Aug 2012
Port Douglas - Residential
19 Waterfall Close Sale Price: $750,000 in March 2007 $750,000 in April 2012
Cairns - Residential
11 Pascoe Close Sale Price: $450,000 in March 2008 $375,000 in Mach 2012
Cairns - Residential
Unit 402 Allegra Sale Price: $606,000 in Sept 2005 $360,000 in Feb 2011
Hervey Bay - Residential
237 Shute Harbour Road Sale Price: $800,000 in December 2009 $470,000 in Aug 2012
Airlie Beach - Residential
Cumberland court Airlie Summit Estate Sale Price: Lot 25 - $330,000 in 2006 Lot 24 - $312,500 in 2007 Lot 26 - $335,000 in 2007 Lot 23 - $75,000 in 2012
Airlie Beach - Residential
Plantation Lot A Sale Price: $1,733,000 in August 2003 $770,000 in July 2012
Airlie Beach – Residential Development Site
Residential Development Sites
2012 • High level investigation and Due
Diligence
• Competition is rare
• Limited quantum of offers
• No fear of losing a deal
• Prevalence of Buyer “Remorse”
Pre-GFC • Sale was about buyer management
• Multiple offers above price
expectation
• Unprecedented competition
• Fear of loss / missing a deal was
paramount
Transaction Idiosyncrasies
Buyer Behaviour Current Market • Commitment to acquisitions
overly cautious
• Buyers well organised
• Debt funding either
- pre-arranged
- not relied upon
• Site acquisitions often made from
100% equity
Pre-GFC • Limited investigation
• Aggressive pricing often based on
future price escalation
• Debt funding post acquisition
• Little equity invested into
developments
Funding Current • Challenging environment for acquisition
funding
• Lenders repositioning their requirements
since 2008
• Non-income producing asset a burden
• Shaping what the market is looking for
• Focus on funding recycling equity –
faster turn around of developments
Pre-GFC • 2007 approx. 42 Lenders in the
market
• No problem arranging Debt funding
both for site acquisition and
development
• Land considered a strong asset in
portfolio
What the market is looking for
• Approved / De-risked sites • Rate of Sale is the key • Little interest in price maximisation of
“product” • Fast turnaround of developments • Affordable end of the market
Auctions
Innovative Solutions for Realising Property
The Challenge
• Lower enthusiasm in the market – “Wait and See”
• The amount of Mortgagee / Receiver property on the market “is it still a point of difference?”
• A belief in many purchasers minds that the ball is in their court and they can decide when to purchase and for how much – “Buyers Market”
Case Study - Southport Central 3
Case Study - Southport Central 3
• Southport Central 3 – third and final tower of a $700 million development, started by Raptis
• 1 level of retail
• 11 levels of commercial office accommodation
• Topped by 258 residential units
• 4 Sales in the past 2 years
Gold Coast Net Absorption (6 monthly)
Southport Central 3 Target Market & Needs
Target Market:
NEEDS:
Settlement Terms:
Occupation: .
. Fit Out Contribution:
Local Owner Occupiers & Investors
Approximately 12 Months Settlement
Occupation for Owner Occupiers and Tenants upon Deposit Release (buyer pays outgoings)
$300/m²
Southport Central 3 Offering
Process: . .
Marketing Period Prior to Price Release:
Marketing Budget:
Expression of Interest and Registration of Interest on Terms offered and specific Lot Set Date Price Release
2 Weeks Whisper Campaign 3.5 Weeks High Impact Price Release May 20 2010
$284,000
Owner Occupiers v Investors
77%
23% Investor
Owner Occupier
Case Study - Southport Central 3
• 141 strata offices have now settled or had unconditional contracts placed on them
• $31,028,500 Gross Realisation
Case Study – Belle Grove Estate
Case Study – Belle Grove Estate
Case Study – Fig Tree Pocket
• Lots Available: 34 Lots
• Lot Range: 702m2 to 1,784m2
• Average Size: 921m2
• Vendor: Cerebral Palsy League Queensland
• Sales History: 2 Sales in last 12 months
3½ Weeks Later
Auction
Press Coverage
Auction Statistics
Bidders registered: 83 bidders
Total bids: 225
Contracts signed on auction date: 22 Contracts
Total realisation on auction date: $10.067m
Marketing budget: $220k (10K per lot)
Auction Day – Helmsman Auction
Bidder Cards
Example
Example
Auction Boards
Auction Venue
Example – Helmsman Auction
Auction – 48% Bid on more than 1 Lot
Sales to Date
• In the 12 months prior to the Auction, 33 vacant lots sold for over $400,000 in the entire Western Suburbs of Brisbane.
• We have now sold 31 Lots for over $14 million
Case Study – Aspire Apartments
• Ipswich’s first Residential High-Rise
• Remaining 44 of 106 Apartments in Receivership
• 44 Residential Apartments
•11 Dual Key
•15 One Bed Apartments
•4 Two Bed Apartments
•12 Two Bed + MPR Apartments
•2 Penthouses
• 3 Retail Stratas
Aspire Apartments
Survey of Buying Intentions • 300 Current Market Participants (100 Enquirers, 100 Vendors
and 100 Land Lords)
• Survey Undertaken by Ray White Concierge (Ray White’s telemarketing arm)
• 21 of the survey participants (7%) expressed interest in purchasing in the next 12 months
• The 6 local offices we were teaming up with identified 2,750 land lords, vendors and enquirers. We anticipated a 7% rate of interest totalling 192 enquiries.
Survey of Buying Intentions
Survey of Buying Intentions
Aspire Apartments - Research
Millennium Apartments Case Study
Millennium Apartments Auction Day
Millennium Apartments Auction Day
Auction Statistics
Bidders registered: 68 (27 active)
Total bids: 131
Contracts signed on auction date: 10 Contracts
Total realisation on auction date: $8.6m
Marketing budget: $90,547k (9K per lot)
Millennium Apartments
Millennium Apartments Property Website
Page Views: 18,000 Views
Total Visits: 4,094
Unique Visitors: 2,930
Subscribers: 142
Case Study – Falls Creek Snow Sale
• 4 Complexes
• 77 Residential Apartments
•26 Studio Apartments
•10 One Bed Apartments
•20 Two Bed Apartments
•18 Three Bed Apartments
•3 Apartments in Old-Style Complex
• 3 Retail Stratas
• 49 Year Leasehold
Case Study – Falls Creek Snow Sale
• In the 12 months prior there had been no sales in the complexes
• In the 12 months prior there had been a total of only 18 unit sales in Falls Creek
• 601 apartment or unit listings in Australian Ski Field Areas
Falls Creek Snow Sale - Market Status
Falls Creek Snow Sale - Strategy
Falls Creek Snow Sale - Website • All Marketing directed buyers to online website
Falls Creek Snow Sale - Website
Falls Creek Snow Sale - Website
Virtual Inspections
Virtual Inspections 88%
Physical Inspections 12%
First Contact: Online v Agent Registration
852 Parties Registered Online then had Agent Contact
119 parties only contacted Agent
244 parties contacted Agent then Registered Online
Data Collation • 1,096 Parties Registered online at
www.fallscreeksnowsale.com
• 619 Parties took Virtual Inspections
• 12,361 Virtual Inspections undertaken
• 76% of Buyers undertook virtual inspections
• 343 Parties agreed to Bidding Terms Online
• 67% of Buyers agreed to Bidding Terms Online
Ray White eMarketing
11% of Sales Originated from RW eDatabase
Falls Creek Snow Sale – Auction Day
Falls Creek Snow Sale – Auction Day
Falls Creek Snow Sale – Auction Day • 80 Lots Sold at Auction
• 3 Hour Auction
• 147 Registered Bidders
• 1,183 Bids
• Average of 15 Bids Per Lot
• 83% of Bidders bid for Multiple Lots
• Sale Prices from $30,000 to $410,000
Bidders Who Bid for Mulitple Lots
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