march 2, 2018 change is moore’s law, named for intel cofounder gordon moore’s observation that...
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1 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
ChartoftheWeek StatoftheWeek
March2,2018
1) Thisweek’snote“FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig”discusseswherewecurrentlystandontheartificialintelligenceadoptioncurve.
2) Investmentsingrocery-anchoredshoppingcentersintheUSin2017climbed5.3%from2016,makingthesectoroneoftheonlyretailsectorstoseedealgrowthinayearoflowtransactionvolume.
3) BritishconglomerateAssociatedBritishFoods(ABF)reportedapreclosetradingupdateforthe24weeksendedMarch3,2018.ABFsaidthatitexpectsPrimark’ssalestohaverisenby7%atconstantcurrencyandby9%asreportedduringthefirsthalf,drivenbyincreasedsellingspace.
4) RumorsthatAlibabawasplanningtoacquireEle.me,oneofthemajoronlinefooddeliveryplatformsinChina,havebeenconfirmedbyaninsiderclosetothedeal.Thecurrentvaluationoftheplatformisabout$9.5billion.
• TheConferenceBoard’sConsumerConfidenceIndexstoodat130.8inFebruary,upfrom124.3inJanuary.BoththepresentsituationandexpectationsgaugesalsoroseinFebruary.
• Consumerconfidencereacheditshighestlevelsince2000,drivenbyagoodlabormarketandoptimismregardingtheoutlookforbusiness,accordingtoTheConferenceBoard.
Source:TheConferenceBoard
130.8
Source:Kantar
Deborah Weinswig CEO and Founder
Coresight Research deborahweinswig@fung1937.com
US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779
CN: 86.186.1420.3016
US:LeadingRetailers’2017Sales(USDBil.)
373.44115.40
93.3389.7289.2582.7779.5671.3171.31
58.9344.6939.0034.7034.3427.58
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
WalmartKroger
Amazon.comCostco
HomeDepotWalgreensBootsAlliance
CVSTargetLowe’s
AlbertsonsAholdDelhaize
ApplePublix
BestBuyRiteAid
2 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
FromtheDeskofDeborahWeinswig
TheStateofArtificialIntelligence:WhereAreWeNow?Theterm“artificialintelligence”(or“AI”)isenvogueandisoftenincorrectlyusedtorefertothingsthatdonottechnicallyqualifyasAI.Processorscanaddapparent“intelligence”tomachinesbyenablingthemtoturnthermostatsonandoffatcertaintimesandmakewell-intendedrecommendationsonwhichpantsgowithwhichshirt,butthesearejustprogramsthatrunthroughamountsofdataandderiveassociations.AndwhilepredictiveanalyticscanappeartoactlikeAI,itisreallyjustapplyingtheseassociationstofuturefunctions.Here,wefocusmorenarrowlyonAIinthecontextofusingcomputerstomimic(orexceed)humanintelligence.
Therearethreemaincalibers,orlevels,ofAI.Thefirstcaliberiscalledartificialnarrowintelligence(ANI),whichreferstousingcomputerpowertoexcelinoneveryspecificarea,suchasplayingchess,optimizinghybridvehicleefficiencyormakingproductrecommendations.Practicallyeverytypeofintelligentsystemweusetodayfitsintothiscategory.
Artificialgeneralintelligence(AGI)isthesecondcaliber,anditreferstocomputersthatareroughlyasintelligentashumansandthatcanperformpracticallyanyintellectualtaskwecan.Computersatthislevelneedtobeabletoreason,planintothefuture,understandcomplexconceptsandlearn,includingfromexperience.RayKurzweil,anAmericanauthor,computerscientist,inventorandfuturist,hasestimatedthatcomputerswouldhavetoprocess10quadrillion(or1016)calculationspersecondtoequalthepowerofthehumanbrain.China’sTianhe-2supercomputeriscurrentlytheworld’sfastest,capableofoperatingat33.8petaflops(quadrillionfloating-pointoperationspersecond),anditappearstohavesufficientspeedforAGI.
Thethirdcaliber,artificialsuperintelligence(ASI),referstosupercomputerswhoseintelligenceexceedsthatofhumansinjustabouteveryarea,includingcreativity,wisdomandsocialintelligence.Thiscategoryisthefocusofscience-fictionwriterswhoimaginehorrificscenariosinwhichthemachinescometorealizethathumansaretheproblemanddecidetoeradicateallofhumanity.
Today,itappearsthatwearestuckattheANIlevelandthatthesecondandthirdlevelsofAIarestillincrediblyfaroff.Whatisdifferentforthoseofuscurrentlyaliveisthatwehavealwayslivedintimesofcontinuingtechnologyimprovements,therateofwhichcontinuestoaccelerate.Thinkoftheslowrateoftechnologyimprovementduringthefirsthalfofthe20thcenturycomparedwiththesecondhalf,whichsawmilestonessuchastheinventionandimprovementofthetransistorinthelate1940sandearly1950s,thelaunchoftheIBMPCin1981andthelaunchofthesmartphoneabout10yearsago.OnedriveroftechnologicalchangeisMoore’slaw,namedforIntelcofounderGordonMoore’sobservationthatthenumberoftransistorsthatcouldbeincorporatedinasiliconwafer(whichdrivescomputingpower)appearedtodoubleevery18months(theratewassubsequentlymodifiedtoevery24months).Computingpowerisfollowingthiscurveandwillsoonpushcomputationspeedstohigherandhighernumbersofpetaflops.
Thefigurebelowshowsavailablecomputingpower,byyear(whichfollowsMoore’slaw).Wearelivinginthetimedepictedontherightside,wheregrowthisincreasingexponentially.
EstimatedComputingPower,byYear(ComputationsperSecond)
Source:MotherJones/CoresightResearch
Wearelikelytocontinuetoseeanacceleratingrateoftechnologicalchange,fueledbyever-increasingcomputingpowerthatis(hopefully)propellingustowardafutureinwhichintelligentmachinescanhelpussolveproblems,curediseasesandgenerallybenefitsociety.
0
1E+17
2E+17
3E+17
4E+17
40 46 52 58 64 70 76 82 88 94 00 06 12 18 24
Slowrateofchange
Rapidrateofchange
3 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
USRETAILEARNINGS
Company
Revenues(USDMil.)YoY%Change GrossMargin(%)
Change(bps)
NetIncome(USDMil.)
YoY%Change StoreFleetEOP
Period TY LY
TY LY
TY LY
TY LY
Carter’s 4Q17 1,027 934 10.0 44.8 43.9 85 110 88 24.3 1,050 956
Dillard’s 4Q18 2,109 1,984 6.3 32.1 31.7 40 84 61 38.1 292 293
HomeDepot 4Q17 23,883 22,207 7.5 33.9 34.0 (15) 1,906 1,744 9.3 2,284 2,278
Macy’s 4Q17 8,666 8,515 1.8 38.2 38.3 (15) 719 635 13.2 851 829
SteveMadden 4Q17 364 336 8.3 38.4 38.7 (35) 28 29 (4.3) 206 189
Walmart 4Q18 136,267 130,936 4.1 24.7 25.4 (70) 3,962 4,003 (1.0) 11,718 11,695
Wayfair 4Q17 1,439 985 46.2 23.1 24.2 (115) (73) (44) NM N/A N/A
Source:Companyreports/CoresightResearch
USRETAIL&TECHHEADLINES
AmazonWasn’tAloneinInvestinginGroceryStoresLastYear(February27)CNBC.com
• Grocerystoreopeningsdeclinedby29%lastyearasexpansionplanscooledandsomesupermarketspreparedtofileforbankruptcyintheyearAmazonacquiredWholeFoods,accordingtoanewreportfromJonesLangLaSalle(JLL).
• Butinvestmentsingrocery-anchoredshoppingcentersin2017climbed5.3%from2016,makingthesectoroneoftheonlyretailsectorstoseedealgrowthinayearoflowtransactionvolume.“Groceryisconsideredtohaveamoataroundittodefendagainste-commerce,andbecauseofthat,these[assets]areseenbyretailpropertyinvestorsasasafeinvestment,”JamesCook,JLL’sdirectorofretailresearchintheAmericas,toldCNBC.
ManhattanLandlordsCutDealstoStaveOffVacantStorefronts(February27)Bloomberg.com
• Afteradroughtin2017,moredealsaregettingdoneaslandlordsbegintoacceptthenewreality.RetaillandlordsthroughouttheUSarefacingacontractinguniverseoftenantsasmerchantscutbackonbrick-and-mortarlocationsandshoppingshiftsonline.
• InManhattan,hometosomeofthemostvaluableretailrealestateintheworld,asharpriseinrentsfollowingtherecessionexacerbatedtheproblem,withpropertyownersclingingtounrealisticincomeexpectations.Today,theglutofemptyspaceistakingatoll,pushinglandlordstomakeconcessionstoplugholes.
StarbucksOpensItsFirstReserveStoreandSaidItSeesRetailRentsEasing(February27)CNBC.com
• OnTuesday,Starbucksopenedthefirstof1,000planned,upscaleStarbucksReservestoresaspartofabroadstrategytodefendagainsthigh-endcoffeerivalssuchasIntelligentsiaCoffee&TeaandBlueBottleCoffee.
• ThenewReservestoreislocatedinStarbucks’Seattleheadquartersbuildingandwillexpandonthecompany’sshowcaseSeattleReserveRoasterydrinkmenuwithnewitemssuchasnitrodraftlattes.ItalsowillservefoodfromPrinciItalianbakeryandalcoholicdrinksfroma“mixology”bar.
WEINSWIG’SWATCHING
Thisweek,theCoresightResearchteamattendedtwoevents,aTrendSeederInnovationSeriespanelcalled“NewRetailFormats,”hostedbyTrendSeeder,24SevenandDavis&Gilbert,and“TheMakingofaBeautyEntrepreneur,”hostedbyTheFashionGroupInternational.
4 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
Hawaii’s2nd-LargestRetailCompanyBuys3ShoppingCenters(February27)USNews.com
• Hawaii’ssecond-largestretailpropertyowner,Alexander&Baldwin,announcedthatitboughtthreeshoppingcentersondifferentislandsfor$254million.ThethreecentersareLaulaniVillageonOahu,Pu’uneneShoppingCenteronMauiandHokuleiVillageonKauai.
• Alexander&BaldwinboughtthepropertiesaspartofastrategytoaccumulateretailpropertythroughoutHawaiiwhilesellingitsmainlandrealestateholdings,theHonoluluStar-AdvertiserreportedMonday.
TargetCEOSaysMajorityofUSRetailSalesWillContinuetoBeinStores(February22)BizJournals.com
• InaninterviewonCNBC,TargetCEOBrianCornellsaidthatthemajorityofUSretailsaleswillcontinuetotakeplaceatstores.Whilehesaidthate-commercesalesaregrowing,storeswillholdanintegralrolefortheforeseeablefuture.
• Cornellsaidthewinningretailersofthefuturewillbetheonesthatareable“tocombinegreatphysicalassets”withdigitalinteraction.Targetiscomingoffasuccessfulholidayseason,withsame-storesalesupmorethan3%duringNovemberandDecember.
EUROPERETAILEARNINGS
Company
Revenues(USDMil.)
ChangeinUSD(%)
ChangeinReportingCurrency
(%) GrossMargin(%)Change(bps)
NetIncome(USDMil.)
YoY%Change StoreFleetEOY
Period TY LY
TY LY
TY LY
TY LY
DIA FYEDec31 9,742 9,593 1.6 (0.6) 22.4 23.2 (80) 123.9 192.5 (35.7) 7,388 7,420
AholdDelhaize FYEDec31 71,069 54,990 29.2 26.6 26.7 26.9 (26) 2,053.3 918.4 123.6 6,637 6,556
Source:Companyreports/CoresightResearch
EUROPERETAIL&TECHHEADLINESPrimark’sFirst-HalfSalesGrowthDentedbyWarmOctober(February26)Companypressrelease
• BritishconglomerateAssociatedBritishFoods(ABF)reportedapreclosetradingupdateforthe24weeksendedMarch3,2018.ABFsaidthatitexpectsPrimark’ssalestohaverisenby7%atconstantcurrencyandby9%asreportedduringthefirsthalf,drivenbyincreasedsellingspace.
• ABFexpectstoreportthatPrimark’scomparablesalesfellby1%duringtheperiod,asgrowthwashinderedbyanunusuallywarmOctober—amonthwhencompssawa“significantdecline.”However,ABFexpectsPrimark’sUKcompstobeup4%forthefirsthalf.ThecompanyexpectsPrimark’soperatingmargintobesimilartothatreportedfortheyear-agoperiodanditplanstoopen1.2millionsquarefeetofsellingspaceoverfiscalyear2018.
SirPhilipGreenSoughtArcadiaBuyer,SaysLeakedEmail(February25)TheTimes.co.uk
• SirPhilipGreenaskedHSBCtohelphimfindabuyerforArcadiaGroup,accordingtoaleakedemailobtainedbyTheSundayTimes.ThisnewscomesbarelyaweekafterGreenissuedadenialofareportthathewasplanningtosellallorpartofthegrouptoChinesebuyers.
• TheemailindicatesthatGreenmetwithIanStuart,HSBCUK’schiefexecutive,andDavidBarraclough,amanagingdirectoratthebank,inFebruary2016.BarracloughsaidthatGreenwasconcernedbythegrowingpensiondeficitatArcadiaandfeltthatheneededtosellsomepartofthegrouptoplugthegap.HesoughtStuart’sandBarraclough’s“assistanceandofferedtomeetanyChineseprospectivepartner[they]consider[ed]appropriate.”
5 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
PaversRescuesJonesBootmaker(February26)RetailGazette.co.uk
• BritishfootwearretailerJonesBootmakerhasbeensoldtocompetitorPaversthroughapre-packadministrationdeal.ThismovecomeslessthanayearafterprivateequityfirmEndlessacquiredJonesBootmakerandputitupforsalefollowingtoughtrading.
• Pavershasnowgainedcontrolof42ofJonesBootmaker’s47storesaswellasitswebsiteandbranding.Thefivestoresthatdidnotformpartofthepre-packdealwillbeshut,resultingin86redundancies.Thedealincludes389employeesretainingtheirjobs.
MonclerForecastsFurtherGrowthAfterSalesRiseby15%in2017(February26)CompanypressreleaseandReuters.com
• ItalianlifestylebrandMonclerpostedsalesgrowthof15%atconstantcurrency,to€1,194million($1,468million),intheyearendedDecember31,2017.Comparablesaleswereup14%,whileEBITgrewby15%andnetincomejumped27%.
• Thegroupforecastfurthergrowthin2018andplanstoexpandselectedproductcategoriesanddoawaywithcatwalkshows.Monclerintendstolaunchproductsmonthlyinordertocatertoshiftingtrendsamongyoungshoppers.
SpartoTrialContactlessandCashRegister–FreePayments(February22)RetailDetail.eu
• InBelgium,supermarketgroupSparissettotrialAmazonGo–likecontactlessandcashregister–freepaymentsincollaborationwithRetailPartnersColruytGroup(RPCG).
• Spar’sBelgianstoresarepartofRPCG,whichhasdevelopedasmartphoneappthatcustomerscanusetoscanandpayforgroceries.ThetrialwillbeconductedinselectedSparstoresinspringthisyear.
ASIARETAIL&TECHHEADLINESAlibabatoBuyMajorFoodDeliveryAppEle.me(February27)ATimes.com• RumorsthatAlibabawasplanningtoacquireEle.me,oneofthemajoronlinefooddelivery
platformsinChina,havebeenconfirmedbyaninsiderclosetothedeal,Yicai.comreported.Alibabawillbuythecompanyasawhole,andthefinalpurchasepriceisstillunderdiscussion.
• Thecurrentvaluationoftheplatformisabout$9.5billion.ThereportsaiditishighlypossiblethatthefirmwillbeplacedundertheleadershipofDanielZhang,Alibaba’sCEO,andserveastheinfrastructureofAlibaba’s“newretail”strategy.
Toys“R”UsPlanningtoCloseMoreStores(February27)HRMAsia.com• AmidstiffcompetitionfromonlineretailersandbiggertoystoressuchasHamleys,UStoy
retailchainToys“R”Usisreportedlysettoscalebackonitsglobaloperations.TheWallStreetJournalhasreportedthatthecompany,whichoperatesmorethan500storesinAsiaalone,isplanningtoclosedowndozensofstores,thoughtheirlocationswereunspecified.
• Thisfollowsanofficialupdateatthestartofthisyear,whenthecompanyannounceditwouldshutdown182storesbyApril,potentiallyaffectingsome4,500workers.Thetoygiantfiledforbankruptcylastyear,rightbeforetheholidayseason.Tomakemattersworse,theretailerregisteredless-than-stellarsalesduringthe2017holidayperiod.
OnlineBuyingPoisedforHKExpansion(February26)TheStandard.com.hk• AlthoughHongKonghasadensephysicalretailenvironment,itsrevenueinthee-commerce
marketisforecasttogrowatanannualrateof9.8%until2022,saysPascalMartin,apartneratOC&CStrategyConsultants.Currently,theaveragerevenueperuserinthecityisUS$928,slightlylowerthantheUS$1,114inSingapore,theUS$1,250inJapanandtheHK$1,495inSouthKorea.
• E-commercepenetrationisexpectedtoreachalmost50%oftheworld’spopulationthisyear,datafrommarketingcompanyStatistashow.OneoftheareaswiththemostgrowthpotentialgloballyistheAsia-Pacificregion,Martinsays.
6 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
TencentandJD.comExpand“RetailKingdom”(February26)ATimes.com• InternetgiantTencentandleadinge-commercesiteJD.commovedtosecureatotal11%
stakeofBBKCommercialChain,alarge,domesticchainenterprise,aimingtofurtherexpandtheirstrategyof“newretail”touprootmorebrickstores,ThePaperreported.
• InsidersthinkChina’sretailindustryhasgraduallyformedapatternof“Tencent&JD”against“Alibaba&Suning.”Bothsidesareconstantlybuildinguptheirretailkingdomsviabuyingupofflineretailers.
RetailAIStartupCapillaryTechnologiesRaises$20Million(February21)TheHindu.com• CapillaryTechnologiesannouncedthatithasraisedapproximately$20millionoverthepast
yearfromitsexistinginvestors,includingWarburgPincusandSequoiaCapital.Thecloud-basedsoftwaresolutionsstartupusesartificialintelligence(AI)toenabletopretailerssuchasWalmart,StarbucksandDubai-basedAl-Futtaimtoengagewiththeircustomers.
• Withthesefunds,Capillaryexpectstostrengthenitsnewproductdevelopment,poweredbyAIandmachinelearning,tocatertoAsiaandotherupcomingemergingmarkets.Thecompanysaiditalsoplanstoinvestinitsnewlylaunchedconsumergoodsvertical.
LATAMRETAIL&TECHHEADLINESHowThisHotIPOIsOutfoxingBrazil’sPaymentIndustryPlayers(February27)Investors.com
• Brazil’seconomyisbouncingback,whichisgoodnewsformicromerchantssuchastaxidrivers,physicaltherapistsandfoodtruckoperators.It’salsogoodnewsforPagSeguro,apaymentprocessorthatcaterstothoseindividualentrepreneursandsmallbusinesses.
• PagSeguro,whichprovidesonlineandmobileservices,sellslow-costpaymentdevicesthatenablemicromerchantstoacceptcreditordebitcardsratherthancash.SomeanalystscomparePagSegurotoUS-basedSquare,whichalsofocusesonsmallmerchants.
ThisDeliveryAppPutsaCourieronEveryCorner(February27)Bloomberg.com
• Rappi,atwo-year-olddeliverystartup,isamashupofUberEats,InstacartandTaskRabbit.Summonedviasmartphone,Rappi’scouriersdeliverpokebowls,groceriesandevencash,andrunerrandsthatincludepayingbills.Regularcustomersaveragemorethanfourordersaweek.
• Rappi,whichchargescustomersabout$1anorderoraflat$7amonth,hasbecomesuchahitinBogotáandMexicoCitythatthecompanyhasraised$185million—anearrecordinLatinAmerica—tosetupshopineachoftheregion’smajorcities.
MexicoRetailSalesFallforSecondMonthinDecember(February26)Reuters.com
• MexicanretailsalesfellforthesecondmonthinarowinDecember,dropping0.5%fromNovember,thenationalstatisticsagencysaidonMonday.Salesslid2.0%inDecemberfromthesamemonthayearearlier,thefifthsuchdeclineinfivemonths.ThefigurerepresentsthebiggestannualizeddropinsalesforanymonthsinceMarch2013.
• EarlierinFebruary,Mexico’sretailassociation,ANTAD,saidthatsalesatstoresopenforatleastayearroseby3.9%inJanuaryfromthesamemonthayearearlier.
MercadoLibreIsOpeningFulfillmentCentersinMexicotoFuelGrowth(February26)Tamebay.com
• MercadoLibre,amajorLatinAmericanmarketplaceande-commercefirm,hassaidthatitwillopentwolargedistributioncentersinMexicoaspartofanefforttoimproveitslogisticsinthecountryandfuelitsdevelopmentandgrowth.
• Thedistributioncenterswillencompassatotalof1.4millionsquarefeetandbelocatedinthestateofMexico,closetoMexicoCity.MercadoLibreishopingtoimproveefficiencybecausetheareaisvast,withmanygeographicalproblemsintermsoffulfillment.
7 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
MWC2018:TelefónicaRollsOutAuraVoiceAssistantinChile(February26)SantiagoTimes.cl
• AllyingwithtechgiantsFacebook,GoogleandMicrosoft,TelefónicahaslaunchedAura,anartificialintelligence–powereddigitalassistant,insixcountries.Thecompanyhasalsoannouncedanewinitiativetobring100millionpeopleinLatinAmericaonlinebyusingmobilenetworkingtechnologyforthefirsttime.
• Firstannouncedatlastyear’sMobileWorldCongress,AuraworksmuchlikeAmazon’sAlexa,Apple’sSiriandMicrosoft’sCortana,allowingcustomerstorequestinformationandcontroldevicesthroughvoicecommands.
MACROUPDATE
KeypointsfromglobalmacroindicatorsreleasedFebruary21–28,2018:
1) US:TheMarkitUSManufacturing,ServicesandCompositePurchasingManagers’Indexes(PMIs)remainedabovetheexpansionthresholdof50.0inFebruary.Existinghomesalesdecreasedby3.2%monthovermonthinJanuary.
2) Europe:Intheeurozone,theMarkitEurozoneManufacturing,ServicesandCompositePMIsstayedabovetheexpansionthresholdinFebruary.IntheUK,thenumberofpeopleclaimingtobeunemployedandtherateofpeopleclaimingbenefitsbothfellinJanuaryfromDecember.TheUKunemploymentratetickedupslightlyinDecember,to4.4%.
3) Asia-Pacific:InJapan,supermarketsaleswereup0.6%yearoveryearinJanuary,whilenationwidedepartmentstoresalesweredown1.2%andTokyodepartmentstoresalesweredown0.2%.TheConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)inJapanroseby1.4%yearoveryearinJanuary,increasingbymorethanitdidinthepriormonth.TheCPIexcludingfoodpricesincreasedby0.9%yearoveryearinJanuary,whiletheCPIexcludingfoodandenergypricesincreasedby0.4%yearoveryear.
4) LatinAmerica:InBrazil,consumerconfidenceweakenedto87.4inFebruary.Constructioncostsinthecountryincreasedby0.1%,slightlylessthanthepriormonth’sincrease.InflationinBrazil,asmeasuredbytheIBGEIPCA-15,edgedupby0.4%monthovermonthandroseby2.9%yearoveryearinFebruary.
Country/Region
Indicator Period Actual Survey Prior ImpactonEconomy*
US MarkitUSManufacturingPMI(Prelim.) Feb 55.9 55.5 55.5 +
US MarkitUSServicesPMI(Prelim.) Feb 55.9 53.7 53.3 +
US MarkitUSCompositePMI(Prelim.) Feb 55.9 – 53.8 +
US ExistingHomeSales(Mil.) Jan 5.4 5.6 5.6 –
US ExistingHomeSales(MoM) Jan (3.2)% 0.5% (2.8)% –
EZMarkitEurozoneManufacturingPMI(Prelim.) Feb 58.5 59.2 59.6 +
EZ MarkitEurozoneServicesPMI(Prelim.) Feb 56.7 57.6 58.0 +
EZ MarkitEurozoneCompositePMI(Prelim.) Feb 57.5 58.4 58.8 +
UK JoblessClaimsChange(Thous.) Jan (7.2) – 6.2 +
UK ClaimantCountRate Jan 2.3% – 2.4% +
UK AverageWeeklyEarnings(3Mos.,YoY) Dec 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% =
UK WeeklyEarningsexBonus(3Mos.,YoY) Dec 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% +
UK ILOUnemploymentRate(3Mos.) Dec 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% –
JP SupermarketSales(YoY) Jan 0.6% – 0.9% –
JP NationwideDepartmentStoreSales(YoY) Jan (1.2)% – (0.6)% –
JP TokyoDepartmentStoreSales(YoY) Jan (0.2)% – 0.9% –
8 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
*CoresightResearch’sevaluationoftheactualfigure’simpactontheeconomyrelativetohistoricalbenchmarksandthecurrentmacroeconomicenvironment:+indicatesapositivesignalforthecountry’seconomy,–indicatesanegativesignaland=indicatesanegligibleormixedimpact.Source:Markit/NationalAssociationofRealtors/UKOfficeforNationalStatistics/JapanChainStoresAssociation/JapanDepartmentStoreAssociation/MinistryofInternalAffairsandCommunicationsJapan/FundaçãoGetulioVargas/InstitutoBrasileirodeGeografiaeEstatística/CoresightResearch
JP CPI(YoY) Jan 1.4% 1.3% 1.0% +
JP CPIexFreshFood(YoY) Jan 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% +
JP CPIexFreshFoodandEnergy(YoY) Jan 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% +
BZ FGVConsumerConfidence Feb 87.4 – 88.8 –
BZ FGVConstructionCosts(MoM) Feb 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% +
BZ IBGEInflationIPCA-15(MoM) Feb 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% +
BZ IBGEInflationIPCA-15(YoY) Feb 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% +
9 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
EARNINGSCALENDAR
Sales(Mil.) EPS
Company
EarningsReleasePeriod Date
ConsensusTY LYActual
ConsensusTY LYActual Currency
FootLocker(FL) 4Q17 Mar2 2,207 2,113 1.25 1.37 USD
JCPenney(JCP) 4Q17 Mar2 4,035 3,961 0.47 0.64 USD
Revlon(REV) 4Q17 Mar2 785 801 (1.25) 0.48 USD
BigLots(BIG) 4Q17 Mar2(E) 1,656 1,579 2.43 2.26 USD
AscenaRetailGroup(ASNA) 2Q18 Mar5 1,642 1,748 (0.09) (0.06) USD
Target(TGT) 4Q17 Mar6 20,691 20,623 1.37 1.45 USD
RossStores(ROST) 4Q17 Mar6 4,052 3,693 0.93 0.75 USD
UrbanOutfitters(URBN) 4Q18 Mar6 1,087 1,030 0.64 0.58 USD
DollarTree(DLTR) 4Q17 Mar7 6,397 5,635 1.93 1.39 USD
Abercrombie&Fitch(ANF) 4Q17 Mar7 1,567 1,036 1.10 0.74 USD
Costco(COST) 2Q18 Mar7 32,686 29,766 1.48 1.17 USD
TheChildren’sPlace(PLCE) 4Q17 Mar7(E) 1,872 1,893 2.45 1.59 USD
IconixBrandGroup(ICON) 4Q17 Mar7(E) 51.5 87.1 (0.01) 0.36 USD
SalvatoreFerragamo(SFER.MI) FY17 Mar8 1,398 1,438 0.78 0.93 EUR
AmericanEagleOutfitters(AEO) 4Q17 Mar8 1,209 1,097 0.44 0.39 USD
Kroger(KR) 4Q17 Mar8 30,726 27,611 0.63 0.54 USD
GroupeCasino(CO.PA) FY17 Mar8(E) 38,160 36,030 2.72 7.91 EUR
Sears(SHLD) 4Q17 Mar8(E) 3,861 6,052 1.16 (1.31) USD
Prada(1913.HK) FY17 Mar8(E) 3,023 3,552 0.10 0.18 EUR
Dick’sSportingGoods(DKS) 4Q17 Mar13 2,732 2,483 1.21 1.07 USD
DSW(DSW) 4Q17 Mar13 725 675 0.27 0.19 USD
10 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
EVENTCALENDAR
Event Location Date(s)
CoresightResearch
Presenting/Attending
ICSCREConEurope London,UK Mar6
NACSConvenienceSummit–Asia HongKong Mar12–14
UJAi3:ASummitforWomen NewYork,NY Mar13
SPECSShow2018:TheForefrontofPhysicalRetail Dallas,TX Mar18–20
Shoptalk2018 LasVegas,NV Mar18–21 √
DigitalFashion&LuxuryMasterclass London,UK Mar20
IsraelDealmakersSummit2018 RedwoodCity,CA Mar20–21
WWDMen’sWearSummit NewYork,NY Mar27
RISE LosAngeles,CA Apr6–7
PIApparel HongKong Apr10–11
WorldRetailCongress Madrid,Spain Apr17–19 √
FEI Boston,MA Apr23–26
WWDRetail20/20Forum London,UK Apr24
RetailRobotics&AIConference SanFrancisco,CA Apr26
Collision NewOrleans,LA Apr30–May3
RetailDesignExpo London,UK May2–3
RetailBusinessTechnologyExpo London,UK May2–3
VRLA2018 LosAngeles,CA May4–5
InnovationEnterpriseChiefStrategyOfficerSummit SanFrancisco,CA May7–8
BrandInnovatorsFutureofConsumerExperience&Retail Dallas,TX May10
D3RetailSupplyChainSummit NewYork,NY May10–11
DigiMarConEast2018 NewYork,NY May10–11
2018WWDBeautyCEOSummit PalmBeach,FL May14–16
EventforIn-StoreExperienceInnovators London,UK May16–17
ICSCRECon:TheGlobalRetailRealEstateConvention LasVegas,NV May20–23 √
3rdAnnualVRWorld London,UK May22–23
RetailCouncilofCanada:Store2018 Toronto,ON,CA May29–30
PIApparel NewYork,NY Jun22–23
CosmoprofNorthAmerica LasVegas,NV Jul29–31 √
11 DeborahWeinswig,CEOandFounder,CoresightResearchdeborahweinswig@fung1937.comUS:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2018CoresightResearch.Allrightsreserved.
March 2, 2018
DeborahWeinswig,CPACEOandFounderCoresightResearchNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.com
JohnMercerSeniorAnalyst
JohnHarmon,CFASeniorAnalyst
StevenWinnickResearchAssociate
CharliePoonResearchAssociate
HongKong:2ndFloor,HongKongSpinnersIndustrialBuildingPhase1&2800CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongLondon:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomNewYork:1359Broadway,18thFloorNewYork,NY10018
CoresightResearch.com
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