making sense of the future
Post on 29-Nov-2014
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MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
Wait Ο
Respond/React Ο
Predict Ο
Anticipate Ο Explore Ο
Imagine Ο
Design / Create Ο
Decide Ο Act Ο
Other Ο
WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?
Making Decisions in Turbulent and
Uncertain Environments
4
“The Long View”
5
Peripheral Vision
6 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
Sense Making
7 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
8
Multiple Perspectives
9
Global & Systemic
View
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
10
Creativity
and
Imagination
IDEO (from Wired)
11
MEGATRENDS
12
Megatrends
Global Forces
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
URBANISATION
DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING
GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE
WOMEN ON THE RISE
WATER CHALLENGES
13
TRENDS
www.trendwatching.com
Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies
Fonte: MGI.
Weak Signals
17
Thinking the
Unthinkable
Wildcards
18
UNCERTAINTY
TrendTaylo rs
Scanning and Exploring Change
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
WORLD
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
EUROPE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
SOUTH EUROPE
1. General Population:
Sustainability of the Pensions
System.
2. Active Population:
Capability to anticipate and lead
the new technological waves.
3. Older Population (+80):
Strong pressure on the
healthcare system (financial and
human resources)
4. …
1
2
3
PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING
PORTUGAL
ECONOMIC
PROFILE
PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE
(Mainly Public Offer/Services)
(External demand)
Globalization
Budgetary Pressure
Non-market services
Goods and services little
marketable internationally
(Targeted to Domestic Demand)
Goods and services that are the subject of
intense International Trade / Competition
• More “weight “ • Greater diversity • More Knowledge and Innovation
Services Vs. Industries
• More Competition • Lower “Rents” • Stronger link to the Economy and
International Competition
Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups + Global Activities and Functions (Logistics, air and maritime transport, “Space”, …)
CITIES
•MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS
•THINK –ACT
•ORGANIC
•ECOSYSTEMS
•MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION
•LABS
URBAN TRENDS
3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL
MANUFACTURING (Fab Lab)
ACTIVIST CITIZEN (Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..))
GENTRIFICATION
CITY APPS/URBAN DATA (Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK)
…
NATURE OF WORK (Coworking; Incubation;
Acceleration - ITC/Web/…)
HACKING THE CITY (Fab Lab; Alt Lab)
INTUITION
COLLABORATIVE URBAN
MAPPING (New startups exploring this)
CROWDSOURCING
CROWDFUNDING
(Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform)
Platform)…
HAPPY CITY
MAKER MOVEMENT (Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place”
of the Internet of Things)
BOTTOM-UP URBAN
ENGAGMENT (Mouraria; …)
CUSTOMIZATION + ON
DEMAND SERVICES
HYBRIDITY
NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS (EVs; soft …)
AGEING +
INTERGENERATIONAL
INTERACTION
(Mentoring; Envlhecimento)
DATA VISUALIZATION
(Using Big Data Trends/Insights)
DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING
(Participatory Budget)
DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION
OPEN-SOURCE (Open Data; OP)
PARTICIPATORY URBANISM (OP Startup Lisboa)
WEARABLES NON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE (Urban/Street Art; LX Factory;
Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …)
RESPONSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURE
RETROFITTING
INFRASTRUCTURE
SMART CITY / SENSORS/ (Smart City Projects)
RAPID PROTOTYPING (Fab Lab)
TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Containers; Parks; …)
ENERGY STORAGE + SMART
GRIDS (SOLAR CITY)
AUGENTED REALITY (AR)
APPS
SHARE CULTURE / SHARE
ECONOMY
STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A
FAST CHANGING PACE (Lisbon Startup Ecosystem)
SUSTAINABILITY (Mobility; Buildings;
SOLAR CITY…)
NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS (LX Factory; Village Underground;
Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …)
BIG DATA
CLOUD COMPUTING
33
Crowdfunding
Lisboa
Thank You paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt
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