mælkevejen og jordens klima henrik svensmark, dansk rumforskningsinstitut email hsv@dsri.dk...

Mælkevejen og Jordens klimaHenrik Svensmark, Dansk Rumforskningsinstitut

Email hsv@dsri.dk

Københavns Universitet, 2002

Satellite Failures due to Space Weather Effects

• Anomalies due to spacecraft surface and internal charging (Marecs, ECS, Meteosat, TELE-X,…..)

• Latch-up induced failures (ESR-1, PRARE, Equator-S,

…..)

• SEU’s in linear circuits…(Anik 1 &2)

• Solar Array problems/degradation (Tempo, PanAm, ECS,….)

More recent satellite failures:

• Telestar 401– TV links etc..

• Galaxy IV– silenced 80% of pagers in North America

More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather More than 12 satellites lost due to Space Weather Effects Effects

Last 4 years space losses may have Last 4 years space losses may have exceeded $500 millionexceeded $500 million

Commercial interests often do not allow anomaly reporting.

Damage to transformers

Damage to a transformer at a power plant Delaware, New Jersey

Price: 10 mill USD

Repair can take up to 1 year.

In this particular case they were lucky to find a used one from a shut down plant. Took only 6 weeks to restore

Sweden: simultaneous power loss in six 130 kV power distribution lines

Chicago: Five transformers in the Chicago area failed due to elevated geomagnetic activity

New Particle formation: Observations and Theory

•Observed nucleation rates are much larger than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory

•The functional dependence of the observed nucleation rate of [H2SO4] is much weaker (~ [H2SO4]2 )than predicted by classical binary (H2SO4+H2O) nucleation theory (~ [H2SO4]10 )

•Measured growth rates of freshly formed nanoparticles are about a factor of 10 higher than can be explained by H2SO4 and its associated H2O and NH3

r

G

r* rc ri

Micro-physics: Why in the lower part of the atmosphere?

: Time to grow from rc to r*

sek

Ion-pair/cc/sek

400 300 200 100

0 0 5 10

~ 200 sek for [H2SO4] = 2.5 107 pr cc

enhanced aerosol formation caused by ionisation

Vohra et al., Atmos. Environment, 18, 1653 (1984)

N2:O2 = 4:1

SO2 = 300 ppb

C2H4 = 100 ppb

O3 = 160 ppb

Artificial air

Natural level of ionisation

Experimental evidence of

Cosmic ray variations ionisation and aerosol formation

Based on Numerical studies by Yu, 2001

CLOUD experimenet ved CERN

Solaktivitet og Klima Kulstof-14 fra træ-ringe

Cosmic Ray - Low Cloud Top Temperature

Marsh and Svensmark, PRL 2000

Correlation only found in low clouds

IR Cloud properties and Cosmic rays

Little Ice age (~ 1300-1800)

Documented in Europe Greenland Sargasso Sea Peru East Africa Japan Caribbean Sea West Africa Taiwan and China South Africa USA Argentina

Ice-ages and spiral arms

One revolution take about 240 Mill years

Spiral arm crossings every 140 Mill years

Cosmic ray flux is larger in spiral arms

Ice-ages and spiral arms

Nir Shaviv, PRL 2002