lte by the numbers
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LTE by the Numbers: A Statistical Analysis of Deployment Plans
Stéphane TéralPrincipal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure
Infonetics Research
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
Key Findings
• LTE continues to move forward; of the 18 service providers we interviewed last month:
• 1/2 are conducting trials
• 17% are already deploying LTE
• The bulk of actual deployments is spread out between 2010 and 2012
• 72% will follow the W-CDMA-to-HSPA+-to-LTE path• This is consistent with last year’s survey’s 81% following
this path
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
Key Findings continued
• 3 notable differences in this year’s survey (vs. last year’s)• The split between FD and TD LTE
• Only 67% of this year’s respondents will deploy FD LTE only
• 28% will deploy FD LTE first, then complement with TD LTE
• The continuous investment in existing data networks• 44%—up from zero—will continue to invest in more coverage
and functionality with their current technology
• The conclusive voice over LTE migration path• 94% will deploy IMS (VoLTE)
• 56% will also implement circuit-switched fall-back
• 39% will launch voice service over LTE one year from launch
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
A look at our service provider sample18 service providers worldwide, accounting for 47% of world’s capex, 46% of revenue
• 50% mobile, 39% incumbents, 11% competitive operators 0%5%Central and Latin America
39%23%Asia Pacific
44%54%Europe, Middle East, Africa
17%18%North America
% of Respondents% of LTE
Commitments*Region
* As reported by GSA
• More than 3/4 from 3GPP clan
• 22% from 3GGP2
• Some operate WiMAX networks as well
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
cdmaOne
Fixed/nomadic or mobileWiMAX
CDMA2000 (1xRTT, 1xEV-DO; xEV-DO Rev A, Rev B)
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
W-CDMA/HSPA/HSPA+
Wire
less
Net
wor
k Ty
pes
Percent of Respondents
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
56% trial LTE in 2010
• Actual deployments are spread out between 2010 and 2012• 17% are deploying in 2010, down from 25% last year• This is consistent with GSA LTE deployment update from 26 Aug. 2010
• Some initially bullish mobile operators have postponed deployments
0% 20% 40% 60%
Don't know
2013 and beyond
2012
2011
2010
2009Ti
mef
ram
e
Percent of Respondents
Deploy
Trial
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
72% will follow the HSPA+ to LTE path
• As 78% come from 3GPP, this is no surprise, although the HSPA+ onslaught is recent• Some operators who last year thought they would skip HSPA+ have changed their mind!• Note the CDMA guys and those going straight from GSM
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to 1xEV-DO Rev B to LTE
As a greenfield network
GSM to evolved EDGE to LTE
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO directly to LTE
WiMAX 802.16e to LTE
GSM directly to LTE
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to LTE
GSM to EDGE to LTE
W-CDMA to HSPA to LTE (skip HSPA+)
W-CDMA to HSPA+ to LTE
LTE
Net
wor
k M
igra
tion
Scen
ario
s
Percent of Respondents
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
TD-LTE is gaining serious momentum
• Only 67% will deploy FD LTE only, and 28% will deploy FD LTE first, then complement it with TD-LTE• This is in line with China Mobile’s push for TD-LTE and the completion of more
spectrum auction with allocation of both paired and unpaired spectrum as well as the outcome in India
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
FD-LTE in low bands and TD-LTE for capacity
enhancement
TD-LTE first, thencomplemented by FD-LTE
TD-LTE only
FD-LTE first, thencomplemented by TD-LTE
FD-LTE only
LTE
Type
s
Percent of Respondents
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
Current data networks won’t be replaced
• This reflects the increasing knowledge about LTE, leading progressively to thinking—more realistically—that LTE is not going to cover everything at once• So there is an emerging need to ensure 3G coverage as a fall-back (e.g., HSPA+), and even
a need for EDGE where 3G coverage is inadequate
0% 20% 40% 60%
Continue to invest in more functionality withcurrent technology, but not more coverage
Do not offer cellular data services
Expand current technology by deploying LTEupgradable remote radio heads
Replace current data network with LTE
Keep current data network, but won't invest inmore coverage or functionality with old technology
Continue to invest in more coverage withcurrent technology, but not more functionality
Continue to invest in more functionality andcoverage with current technology
Com
bini
ng L
TE w
ith C
urre
nt C
ellu
lar D
ata
Tech
nolo
gy
Percent of Respondents
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
IMS will be the preferred voice platform
• And more than half of our respondents will also use the circuit-switched fall-back option to ensure voice service coverage across multiple networks—LTE vs. non LTE areas
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Implement voice over LTE via genericaccess (VoLGA)
Use MSC and SMS legacy, but convertto SIP for delivery over IP RAN
Offer voice softclients on top of data plans
Implement VoIP over 2.5/2.75G/3Gas a first step to full migration
Leave voice on 2G network as longas possible
Implement circuit-switch fall back (CSFB)
Deploy IMS (VoLTE)
Voic
e M
igra
tion-
to-L
TE S
cena
rios
Percent of Respondents
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
Bottom line• LTE deployments are increasing at a fast pace, and HSPA
keeps building momentum• Paving the way for a broader HSPA+ to LTE migration path
• IMS is the default platform for voice, and 3G networks are going to be more important than ever as a fall-back in areas lacking LTE coverage• This also implies that if 3G coverage is not adequate, there will
be a fall-back to EDGE as it is currently implemented
• Consequently, there is a need to continue to invest in the existing network
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
Q&A
• Questions?
THANK YOU
Stéphane TéralPrincipal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure
+1 408.583.3371stephane@infonetics.com
www.infonetics.com
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.
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