loyalty - recommendation for new service - js011210
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
LoyaltyRecommendation for a New Nielsen Service
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
2/23
Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Loyalty
Why? Audience Loyalty is a key indicator of aprograms success: it illustrates theprograms staying power of course, butits also been shown to correlate stronglywith an audiences attitude towards the
programs branding environment (i.e.commercial spots, sponsorships andproduct integrations)
In short, the more loyal the audience,the more receptive it is to thecommercial messages*
* That correlation has been demonstrated and quantified in multiple consumerpsychology studies, including Nielsens own 2006-08 Product Placement Valuation Study
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
3/23
Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
What is Loyalty?
Source: 2006-08 Product PlacementValuation Study - 12,145 respondents
60 broadcast/cable TV programs acrossall genres, mostly weekly series
How often to do watch that series?
I dontwatch it
only onoccasion
half ofthe time
nearlyalways
everytime
no, definitely not
no, not really
yes, Id say so
yes, most definitely
Do you consideryourself a loyal viewer
of that series?
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
What is Loyalty?
Based on these results, we could start bydefining loyalty has having watched atleast 50% of all episodes (frequency) ina regular series, and deeming that a
viewer watched an episode as long ashe/she watched it for at least half of itsair time (duration)
* That correlation has been demonstrated and quantified in multiple consumerpsychology studies, including Nielsens own 2006-08 Product Placement Valuation Study
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Top Shows by Loyalty
M35-64
24 (FOX) 30%CSI (CBS) 29%
NCIS (CBS) 27%Two And A Half Men (CBS) 27%
American Idol (FOX) 25%
Once a definition is in place,we can rank all TV shows
based on audience loyalty.
For example in the Spring of2007, based on the abovedefinition, the top 5 shows
for Men of age 35-64 were:
percentage of theshows audiencethats loyal tothat show:
Source: Nielsen National Panel Spring 2007193 primetime shows on the following networks:
ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, NBC, WB, A&E, BRAVO, HGTV, MNT, MTV, TLC
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Other Demos
F02-34
Greys Anatomy (ABC) 31%American Idol (FOX) 28%
Project Runway (BRAVO) 28%Lost (ABC) 25%
Desperate Housewives (ABC) 24%
F35-64
Greys Anatomy (ABC) 40%American Idol (FOX) 37%
Desperate Housewives (ABC) 35%CSI (CBS) 33%
CSI: Miami (CBS) 30%
M02-34
Family Guy (FOX) 22%Lost (ABC) 22%
24 (FOX)
21%The Office (NBC) 21%
Heroes (NBC) 19%
M35-64
24 (FOX) 30%CSI (CBS) 29%
NCIS (CBS)
27%Two And A Half Men (CBS) 27%
American Idol (FOX) 25%
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Duration
The requirement towatch at least half ofan episodes air time
may be too stringent.
Were bringing it downto 6 minutes forconsistency with
industry creditingstandards*
Source: 24 (FOX) May 2009 Persons 02-99*This adjustment doesnt take away from the discriminative value of loyalty scoring
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60
duration requirement threshold (minutes)
loya
lt
y
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Window
It is also important tostandardize the time
window over whichloyalty is computed:
the commitment towatch 2 out of 4
episodes isnt thesame as that neededto watch 6 out of 12
Source: Nielsen National Panel NPower Quad Analyses
GREYS ANATOMY
demo F02-99
Spring 09
# telecasts 13
ABC
cume aud 51.0M
20 pct
40 pct
60 pct
80 pct
100 pct
Loyalty level
% of shows audience
36%
26%
14%
3%
1%
GREYS ANATOMY
demo F02-99
Fall 09
# telecasts 5
ABC
cume aud 38.9M
20 pct
40 pct
60 pct
80 pct
100 pct
Loyalty level
% of shows audience
58%
46%
38%
28%
19%
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Standard Definitions
Duration: A minimum of 6 minutes for each telecast
Frequency: 20% | 40% | 60% | 80% | 100% of all telecastsin the time window (to provide a more complete picturethan simply looking at half of the telecasts)
Time Window: Wide enough to encompass 5 consecutive telecasts
Were proposing to adopt the following standards:
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Scoring
Loyalty Intensity for aWeekly Network Series:
Low: if a user viewed 1/5 telecastModerate: if a user viewed 2/5 telecastsMedium: if a user viewed 3/5 telecastsHigh: if a user viewed 4/5 telecastsExtreme: if a user viewed 5/5 telecasts
Sources: Nielsen National Panel NPower Quad Analyses
We then establish what percentage of the audience fits each ofthe above loyalty intensity categories, out of all viewers ofthat program (i.e. out of all those who came in contact withthat program over that time period, even if its only for oneminute)
Scoring:
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Example #1: 24
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
04/16/09
150
50
300
200
100
250
persons(millions)
In the 5 weeks leadingup to (and including)04/16/09, 53.8 millionpersons had watched atleast one minute of theshow; we refer to themas viewers
04/06/09
viewers
55.4% watched 1 out of 5 telecasts(and at least 6 minutes of it);
38.3% watched 2 out of 5;
29.4% watched 3 out of 5;
21.5% watched 4 out of 5;
14.7% watched all 5;
Of those:
show
demo
network
viewing
24
P02-99
Live+7
FOX
Loyalty over the 5 weeks leading up to 04/16/09
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
24 - Longitudinal View
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
02/02/09 05/18/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
extreme
high
medium
moderate
low
loyalty intensity
show
demo
start
end
network
viewing
24
P02-99
05/18/09
Live+7
FOX
01/11/09
Replicating the analysis over the course of the entire season
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
24 - Loyalty vs. Ratings
5%
AA% 4.5%3.8%
Not surprisingly, the low-loyalty curve matches thegradual decline in AA% overthe season
However, the extreme-loyalty curve grows steadilyover the course of theseason (from 12.9% to15.2% of viewers)
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
24P02-99
05/18/09
Live+7
FOX
01/11/09
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
02/02/09 05/18/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
15.2%12.9%
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Implications
Demographics: Further research can replicate the aboveanalysis for various demographic / lifestagepopulation groups and pinpoint wheregrowth/drops in loyalty are coming from
Currency: In the previous example, as the shows totalaudience decreased, the quality of thataudience arguably increased. A syndicatedservice that regularly reports on audiencequality (% loyalty + longitudinal changes)has the potential to become part of thecurrency, or at the very least integral part of
upfront negotiations. The implication isprofound for the continued relevance ofNielsens ratings services
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Recommendations
1. Use NPower to prototype a new syndicated service
2. Form a client steering committee to guide design efforts
3. Formulate 2010 development plan
4. Publish top rankings on the Nielsen Wire
It is currently very difficult to manually use NPower to perform the above
analyses on a regular basis. Quad segmentations only represented 1.5%of all NPower queries in 2009, and most clients appear to use them tovalidate advertising schedules rather than quantify audience loyalty.
Nevertheless, the data and underlying functionalities are already presentin NPower. We thus propose to:
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Appendix
Slides 17-19 Example #2: GREYS ANATOMYImpact of Reruns and SpecialsDefinition Adjustment
Slides 20-21 Example #3: THE AMAZING RACEDrill down to P25-54
Slides 22-23 Example #4: BIG BROTHERDemographic Differences
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Example #2: GREYS ANATOMY
show
demo
start
end
network
viewing
GREYS ANATOMY
P02-99
05/14/09
Live+7
ABC
09/25/08
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10/30/08 05/14/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
extreme
high
medium
moderate
low
loyalty intensity
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
GREYS ANATOMY
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10/30/08 05/14/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
GREYS ANATOMYP02-99
05/14/09
Live+7
ABC
09/25/08
5%
AA%
6.1%
6.8%
The dips in AA% correspondto specials and reruns
However, our definition ofloyalty is too strict in thiscase: its unfair to ask ofsomeone to watch all rerunsin order to qualify as ahighly loyal viewer
1.2%
The consequences for loyaltyappear to be dramatic
Impact of Reruns and Specials
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
GREYS ANATOMY
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
GREYS ANATOMYP02-99
05/14/09
Live+7
ABC
09/25/08
We thus restrict the analysisto original telecasts only
Loyalty levels are solid, yetthe interference of reruns
early in the season appearsto prevent loyalty fromdeveloping further
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10/30/08 05/14/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-originals window
season
finale
5%
AA%
6.8%5.4%
Definition Adjustment
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8/9/2019 Loyalty - Recommendation for New Service - JS011210
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Example #3: THE AMAZING RACE
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
AMAZING RACEP02-99
12/06/09
Live+7
CBS
09/27/09
Steady increase in AA%over the course of theseason
i.e. the buildup of extremeloyalty for the show outpacedthe shows ratings improvementby a factor of 3.4
While AA% increased by 8%,extreme loyalty increased by27%
5%
AA%
4.1%
4.4%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10/25/09 12/06/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
11.2%
8.8%
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
THE AMAZING RACE
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
AMAZING RACEP25-54
12/06/09
Live+7
CBS
09/27/09
Drilling down to P25-54, thebuildup of extreme loyalty for
the show outpaced the showsratings improvement by a factorof 7.1: more than twice that ofthe general population 20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
10/25/09 12/06/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
13.7%
10.4%
5%
AA%
4.7%
4.9%
Drill down to P25-54
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
Example #4: BIG BROTHER
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
BIG BROTHERP02-99
09/15/09
Live+7
CBS
07/09/09
Big Brother airs three times aweek. Extreme loyalty for the
show appears to peak threeweeks before the season finale
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
07/19/09 09/15/09
percentage ofviewers within eachloyalty intensitycategory
rolling 5-wk window
season
finale
8.6%6.7%
10.8%
5%
AA%
2.3%2.6%
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Jerome Samson - Confidential & Proprietary
Copyright 2010 The Nielsen Company
BIG BROTHER
showdemo
start
end
network
viewing
BIG BROTHERmultiple
09/15/09
Live+7
CBS
07/09/09
P50-64 dominate the ratings butare the least loyal to the show
F18-34 are on par with thegeneral population ratings
throughout the season, but arenearly twice as loyal to the show
than the rest of the population
Loyalty among P35-49 starts towane mid-season, earlier than for
the other age groups
Demographic Differences
P02-99
P18-34
M18-34
F18-34
P50-64
P35-49
07/19/09 09/15/09
extremeloyalty (5/5)
rolling 5-wk window
seasonfinale
5%
10%
15%
20%
07/19/09 09/15/09
AA%
avg 5-wk
seasonfinale
4%
3%
2%
1%
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