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LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
CAMDEN COUNCIL SEPTEMBER 2017
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
i
DOCUMENT CONTROL
Job ID: J000449
Job Name: Lowes Creek Marylands
Client: Camden Council
Client Contact: Louise McMahon
Project Manager: Esther Cheong
Email: esther.cheong@aecgroupltd.com
Telephone: 02 9283 8400
Document Name: LCM Housing Market Needs Analysis final reissued
Last Saved: 21/9/2018 12:09 PM
Version Date Reviewed Approved
Draft 29/09/2017 JV EC
Final Draft 8/12/2017 JV EC
Final 29/08/2018 JV EC
Final reissued 20/09/2018 JV EC
Disclaimer:
Whilst all care and diligence have been exercised in the preparation of this report, AEC Group Pty Ltd does not warrant the
accuracy of the information contained within and accepts no liability for any loss or damage that may be suffered as a result of
reliance on this information, whether or not there has been any error, omission or negligence on the part of AEC Group Pty Ltd
or their employees. Any forecasts or projections used in the analysis can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables, and
as such no warranty is given that a particular set of results will in fact be achieved.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
BACKGROUND
The Sydney Growth Centres Program was established in 2005, enabled by State Environmental Planning Policy
(Sydney Region Growth Centres) 2006 (Growth Centres SEPP) to develop new communities, homes, employment
areas, health and education facilities and key infrastructure facilities within designated greenfield areas.
The two growth centres initially established were the North West and South West Growth Centres. The North West
Growth Centre was renamed North West Growth Area and the South West Growth Centre renamed South West
Growth Area. Following the Commonwealth Government’s announcement to develop the Western Sydney Airport
at Badgerys Creek, the South West Growth Area underwent a boundary change to create Western Sydney Growth
Area (WSGA) and South West Growth Area (SWGA). A third greenfield release area in western Sydney is the
Greater Macarthur Growth Area (GMGA) which was established in 2016 to include the areas of Wilton, Mt Gilead
and Menangle Park.
The SWGA now comprises circa 10-13 precincts, with parts of Bringelly, Rossmore and Leppington North falling
within the new boundaries however detailed alignment of both Growth Areas is still under review. The Lowes
Creek Maryland Precinct (referred to as the ‘LCM’) falls within the boundaries of the SWGA.
The Context Area is bordered by The Northern Road to the east, Greendale Road to the north, Cobbitty to the
south and the Nepean River to the west. A site in LCM is currently being progressed for early release and rezoning
as per the Precinct Acceleration Protocol (PAP) program.
AEC Group (AEC) have been engaged by Camden Council to prepare a Housing Market Needs Analysis (the
Study) to inform precinct planning. Collectively, LCM and the Context Area are referred to as ‘the Study Area’.
PURPOSE & APPROACH
The broad objective of the Study is to provide an understanding of demand for housing and market appetite for
different dwelling typologies and densities within the South West Growth Area (SWGA). The Study is to assist
Council in the preparation of a structure plan and Indicative Layout Plan (ILP) for LCM.
AEC’s scope comprises the following tasks:
• Review of background information and statutory planning framework, including previous housing studies.
• Identify economic and market trends that influence future housing requirements in the SWGA and surrounds.
• Investigate the nature of housing supply and development activity in the SWGA and surrounding markets.
• Project housing demand (in different growth scenarios) for the SWGA.
• Identify the capacity of LCM (and Context Area) to ‘capture’ and accommodate projected housing demand.
• Make recommendations to accommodate residential growth effectively in LCM and the Context Area.
KEY FINDINGS
Economic and Market Trends
Lower than expected actual dwellings growth compared to projected growth over the 2011-2016 period resulted in
a foregone opportunity to meet housing demand. This resulted in an unmet housing need, characterised by rising
rents and prices and rising household sizes across parts of Sydney.
Housing affordability within metropolitan Sydney is a focal point of public commentary and recent Federal and State
government focus. The transition to higher density living has been inevitable as a result of rising house prices,
lifestyle preferences for low maintenance property with high amenity and a shrinking average family size. That said,
in areas of western Sydney where there is availability of existing houses at comparable pricing, market acceptance
of high-density product has been slower as detached houses compete with new apartment product.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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With affordability becoming a key consideration for many younger households, the shift towards smaller dwellings
and lot sizes in many greenfield precincts such as the NWGA and SWGA has gained momentum over the past 12-
24 months. Developers have responded in-kind within the SWGA; numerous residential subdivisions progressed
over the course of 2017 have comprised high proportions of lots sized from 225sqm to 300sqm.
Affordability and level of surrounding infrastructure drives market preference and compromise in the SWGA. Market
observations indicate lots sub-300sqm and/or house and land packages sub-$700,000 are particularly appealing
to first home buyers (FHBs). This has also transcended into appeal for medium-density style product, where strong
interest for land and dwellings on lots circa 200sqm has generated strong responses from the market.
Whilst smaller lots are continuing to receive swift take-up rates, the most popular lot sizes remain at 350sqm-
400sqm. Two door garages are particularly popular, owing to the lack public transport options in many estates and
two-car lifestyle of purchasers. The importance of garages is strong despite availability of public transport in some
precincts. Car spaces are of even more importance in areas where no transport alternatives exist (e.g. Cobbitty).
Owner occupiers are understood to be the dominant purchaser cohort in the SWGA accounting for circa 60%-65%
of all buyers. Of these FHBs and young families are particularly dominant, many relocating from the major centres
of South-West Sydney such as Campbelltown and Liverpool whilst others are relocating from Western Sydney (e.g.
Penrith LGA). A strong investor market is also active within the SWGA with strong interest observed from Sydney-
based investors.
Dwelling Projections
A number of critical developments have occurred over the 2015-2017 period, including funding and planning for
Western Sydney Airport (target 2026 opening), designation of the ‘Western City’ as Sydney’s third city and
government commitment to significant catalytic infrastructure capital works programme.
We have modelled demand scenarios wherein 20% and 30% capture of metropolitan Sydney housing demand is
redistributed to the GAs (South West, North West, Western Sydney and Greater Macarthur) to facilitate housing
opportunities close to future employment centres in the Western City.
Projected Housing Demand
Based on recent census population and dwellings data (2016) as well as DPE’s latest population projections
(September 2016) housing demand was projected by applying the following assumptions and steps:
1 Percentage capture of metropolitan Sydney new housing demand in Growth Areas
a Scenario 1 is based on an expectation of 20% capture of new housing demand in metropolitan Sydney,
which results in a redistribution of dwelling demand to GAs for development. This is termed the ‘Lower
Growth Scenario’.
b Scenario 2 is premised on a 30% capture of new housing demand and residential activity in the rest of
metropolitan Sydney, which is redistributed to the GAs. This is termed the ‘Higher Growth Scenario’.
2 Growth Areas distribution (South West, North West and Greater Macarthur) using qualitative weighted
distribution criteria regarding the anticipated ‘attractiveness’ of each GA relative to each other.
GAs considered in the demand modelling are the former South West Growth Centre (which is now comprised
of South West and Western Sydney GAs), North West GA and Greater Macarthur GAs.
3 Distribution of projected demand to LCM and the Context Area by considering respective supply capacity.
Table ES.1 indicates dwelling demand projections in aggregate for the GAs (South West, Western Sydney, North
West and Greater Macarthur) to 2036.
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Table ES.1: Dwelling Demand Projections by Scenario for GAs (in Aggregate)
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Scenario 1 (Lower Growth Scenario)
SWGC* 9,131 21,638 34,893 49,332 64,803 55,672
NWGA 13,465 27,135 39,309 51,530 63,637 50,172
GMGA 10,647 15,712 21,603 27,517 34,131 23,484
Scenario 2 (Higher Growth Scenario)
SWGC* 9,131 27,492 46,728 67,604 89,928 80,797
NWGA 13,465 33,533 51,201 68,869 86,339 72,874
GMGA 10,647 18,083 26,632 35,183 44,727 34,079
*Combination of both SWGA and WSGA excluding Western Sydney AirportSource: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016)
Projected housing demand in South West and Western Sydney GAs to 2036 requires nearly 55,700 and 80,100
additional dwellings in the Lower Growth and Higher Growth scenarios respectively.
Market Demand and Potential Supply Capacity
The opportunity and role for LCM and the Context Area to meet some of the projected demand depends on:
• Availability of services infrastructure.
• Existing lot and ownership patterns.
• Market demand and capacity/willingness to pay for dwellings.
• Nature and magnitude of developer interest.
Market analysis demonstrates strong demand for dwellings in the SWGA which is considered an appropriate proxy
for likely demand at LCM and the Context Area. Affordability issues in conjunction with lifestyle reasons is seeing
a continuing trend towards owner occupier purchasers favouring smaller, denser product.
Looking forward, while smaller and denser residential product is expected to increase, detached houses are still
expected to form the majority of dwelling type, followed by row housing/semi-detached/townhouses and then by
units/apartments. The ability of higher-density product to attract demand within LCM will be largely tied to planned
infrastructure and amenity improvements within the area.
Profile of Market Demand
Market preferences and attitudes are different compared to 10 years ago when the first structure planning for the
South West Growth Centre was completed. Households today (families, couples and lone persons alike) value
lifestyle and convenience. These values pervade all elements of choice including housing choice. While a large
backyard may still be sought after by some, it is generally a reducing requirement driven by cost and attitudes
towards convenience.
The gradual shift towards smaller lot and dwelling sizes is therefore a function of both affordability issues and
lifestyle choices. That said, the former has the greatest level of impact on housing demand within the SWGA as
evidenced from market observations.
Housing affordability and level of infrastructure/amenity provision will continue to influence market preference and
product acceptability in the region. Whilst the newer estates within the SWGA may be of better quality than older
stock within established residential areas around the Liverpool and Campbelltown CBDs, the similar (and in some
cases higher) price points sought within the SWGA will conceivably see more prospective purchasers weigh up
options closer to existing retail amenity and employment opportunities in the short term.
Despite a general fall in investor activity across metropolitan Sydney, investors are notably active in estates where
larger blocks are available. This cohort typically seeks opportunities for dual occupancy and secondary dwellings.
The affordability threshold analysis indicates a greater tolerance of household incomes to rental prices.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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Housing Typology and Mix
Proximity of LCM to the future Marylands train station and retail centre influences its role for higher density product
(units and apartments) compared to the broader Context Area. Detached product is still expected to be the
dominant typology. Table ES.2 recommends potential dwelling mixes in Lower and Higher density scenarios.
Table ES.2: Product Typology and Mix (Lower Density and Higher Density Scenario)
Study Area Dwelling Type (%) Detached Dwellings (%)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units <350sqm 350-450sqm >450sqm
Overall
Context Area 75%-80% 15%-20% 0%-5% 20%-30% 60%-70% 10%
Lowes Creek and Maryland 70%-75% 20%-25% 5%-10% 30%-35% 55% 10%-15%
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area 80% 20% 0% 20% 70% 10%
Lowes Creek and Maryland 70% 25% 5% 30% 55% 15%
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area 75% 20% 5% 30% 60% 10%
Lowes Creek and Maryland 70% 20% 10% 35% 55% 10%
Source: AEC, DPE
The quantum of units that could be provided at LCM would ultimately depend on the respective capacity of retail
centre/s to accommodate multi-unit housing in buildings of 2-4 storeys and 6-8 storeys. Proximity to public transport
and scale of retail facilities are key determinants of the viability of higher density product.
Table ES.3 assigns weighted average densities by dwelling type, mix and lot size result in the Lower and Higher
density scenarios (to calculate average densities in LCM and Context Area).
Table ES.3: Market Densities to Build-Out
Study Area Net Dev. Area
Average Density (dw/ha)
Potential Dwellings
Average Density (dw/ha)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area 517.0ha 20.8 10,744 17.5 33.8 67.5
Lowes Creek and Maryland 265.8ha 24.3 6,465 17.9 33.8 67.5
782.8ha 22.0 17,209
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area 517.0ha 23.7 12,254 18.1 33.8 67.5
Lowes Creek and Maryland 265.8ha 26.4 7,009 18.4 33.8 67.5
782.8ha 24.6 19,263
Source: AEC, DPE
If the Context Area had the environmental capacity to accommodate 17,500 to 20,000 additional dwellings to 2036,
that would represent a capture of 22%-24% of projected housing demand in the Higher Growth Scenario.
Application of household occupancy rates (in line with DPE’s demography unit’s interpretation of the 2016 census
data) result in 19,874 persons and 20,960 persons in the Lower Density and Higher Density scenarios
respectively.
Recommendations for Context Area and Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct
The Study findings and recommendations are predicated on the following assumptions:
• Marylands train station operational in 2036 likely located approximately 700m east of Northern Road.
• Marylands retail centre (potential 30,000sqm) with large commuter car park.
• Upgrade works to Northern Road to commence shortly to eventually be three lanes in each direction, forming
a physical barrier between the Context Area and Marylands station.
• Two link roads are proposed to run east-west through the Context Area and a sub-arterial road is proposed to
run north-south through the western section of the LCM precinct.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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The likely timing of development in the Context Area and LCM relate directly to provision of regional and services
infrastructure. It is reasonable to presume that industry will meet the market and leverage opportunities as available.
• Spatial Distribution
The spatial distribution of dwelling types should have regard to their relative location with respect to proximity
to public transport nodes (present and future) and retail facilities. Lower density product should be located
around the fringe/frame of a precinct. Market acceptability and viability of higher density product in greenfield
settings is underpinned by proximity to public transport and retail amenity.
• Shift in Focus towards Smaller Dwellings
The direct relationship between affordability (and lifestyle) and smaller lot sizes is well-established, and will
likely persist over the medium-term. The shift towards medium-density and higher-density accommodation is
also growing - townhouses, villas and apartment products have wide market acceptance in the more mature
North West market while precincts such as Edmondson Park and Leppington (within the SW) are poised to
deliver a notable quantum of higher density product over the next 5-7 years.
Tracking the market response to new medium-density and higher-density product within the SWGA is crucial
to delivering an appropriate typology mix in the Context Area, as well as timing of release of such product. The
success of higher density product will be dependent on the quality of amenity that can be established.
• Higher Density Dwellings
Given that retail facilities are not incubators but followers of population growth, the retail centre is unlikely to
be established until such time as a critical mass of residents is established. This follows that any higher density
dwelling product will be a longer term proposition.
• Take-up Rates
At present, a shortage of serviced land has propelled land and dwelling prices. While an undersupply would
ordinarily result in high take-up rates, prevailing price levels have had a dampening effect on demand. While
there is underlying demand, effective demand (the capacity of the market to pay) is challenged.
Assuming pricing is at an equilibrium level, conventional wisdom would suggest a conservative take-up rate
starting from 150-200 lots per annum to potentially a peak of 300-400 lots per annum per estate. Nevertheless,
astute marketing, upfront delivery of community infrastructure and product branding have been observed to
result in phenomenal take-up exceeding 500 lots per annum in some estates even in the first year.
Role of the Study Area
Market preferences and attitudes are different compared to 10 years ago when first structure planning for the South
West Growth Centre was completed. Households (families, couples and lone persons alike) value lifestyle and
convenience. These values pervade all elements of choice including housing choice. While a large backyard may
still be sought after by some, it is generally a reducing requirement driven by cost and convenience.
By applying average densities in Table ES.3 to the Context Area and LCM have a combined dwelling capacity of
25,000 to 30,000 dwellings, representing 30%-35% of projected demand in the Higher Growth Scenario to 2036.
Even though the South West GA may have a theoretical dwelling capacity, it is possible not all land will be
developed. Landowner objectives, motivations and personal circumstances may not necessary align with
development imperatives and in precincts where ownership is highly fragmented, development take-up is expected
to be less than the theoretical capacity for dwellings.
Where housing formats and densities are market-supported (per dwelling types and mix in Table ES.2) it is
necessary to ensure there is greater dwelling capacity than is projected to 2036. The establishment of the Western
City and full operation of the Western Sydney Airport is likely to be beyond the projection timeframe and accordingly
it is prudent to ensure land supply is able to respond to housing demand.
Large swathes of land in majority control close to Bringelly Road (envisaged as a future mixed enterprise corridor)
and future Marylands train station are valuable opportunities. LCM presents an excellent opportunity to meet
housing demand and assist in alleviating pressure on dwelling prices.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
DOCUMENT CONTROL .......................................................................................................................................... I
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ II
TABLE OF CONTENTS ....................................................................................................................................... VII
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND BRIEF ................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 SCOPE AND APPROACH ................................................................................................................................. 1
1.3 STUDY STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................................................... 2
2. THE STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................................................ 3
2.1 GROWTH AREAS AND PRECINCTS ................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................... 8
2.4 INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME ................................................................................................................... 14
2.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING DEMAND .......................................................................................................... 16
3. ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 18
3.1 ECONOMIC TRENDS AND DRIVERS ................................................................................................................ 18
3.2 MARKET ACTIVITY ...................................................................................................................................... 19
3.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING DEMAND .......................................................................................................... 24
4. PROJECTED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CAPACITY ................................................................................... 26
4.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 26
4.2 DWELLING DEMAND PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................... 27
4.3 MARKET DEMAND AND POTENTIAL SUPPLY CAPACITY .................................................................................... 28
4.4 FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING SUPPLY ....................................................................................................... 30
4.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING SUPPLY ........................................................................................................... 32
5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................................................................. 34
5.1 TRENDS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS ............................................................................................................ 34
5.2 DEMAND FOR HOUSING IN STUDY AREA ........................................................................................................ 35
5.3 TIMING AND STAGING .................................................................................................................................. 37
5.4 ROLE FOR STUDY AREA .............................................................................................................................. 38
REFERENCES...................................................................................................................................................... 39
APPENDIX A: WESTERN SYDNEY INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN MAP ............................................................... 40
APPENDIX B: DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE ......................................................................................................... 41
APPENDIX C: HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY ............................................................... 47
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND BRIEF
A Plan for Growing Sydney (DPE, 2014) identified the former South West Growth Centre (now the South West
Growth Area and Western Sydney Growth Area) as an important greenfield location for new housing and
employment opportunities.
The Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct (referred to as the ‘LCM’) falls within the boundaries of the South West
Growth Area. LCM is within a broader context area of approximately 1,334ha of rural land bordered by The Northern
Road to the east, Greendale Road to the north, Cobbitty to the south and the Nepean River to the west.
A large landowner within LCM has commenced discussions with the Department of Planning and Environment
(DPE) for release of a 517 parcel of land (referred to as LCM) in accordance with the Precinct Acceleration Protocol
(PAP) which allows proponents to progress planning and development of land within Growth Areas earlier than
contemplated by DPE.
AEC Group (AEC) have been engaged by Camden Council (Council) to prepare a Housing Market Needs Analysis
(the Study) for LCM in response to the PAP-initiated rezoning proposal. Collectively, LCM and the Context Area
are referred to as ‘the Study Area’.
The broad objective of the Study is to assist Council understand demand for housing and market appetite for
different dwelling typologies and densities within the South West Growth Area (SWGA), and in particular
implications for future development of LCM and the Context Area.
1.2 SCOPE AND APPROACH
The overarching objective of the Study is to carry out economic and property market analysis to assist Council in
the preparation of a structure plan and Indicative Layout Plan (ILP) for LCM.
AEC’s scope comprises the following tasks:
• Review of background information and statutory planning framework, including previously completed housing
studies.
• Identify economic and market trends that influence future population and housing requirements in the SWGA
and surrounds.
• Investigate the nature of housing supply and development activity in the SWGA and surrounding markets.
• Project housing demand (in different growth scenarios) for the SWGA having regard to:
o Overall projected population growth in metropolitan Sydney.
o Changes in households and socio-demographic profile.
o Employment opportunities and growth.
o Expectations of infrastructure investment.
o Affordability of, and capacity of households to pay for housing.
• Assess and identify the capacity of LCM (and the Context Area) to ‘capture’ and accommodate projected
housing demand.
• Make recommendations to facilitate and accommodate residential growth effectively in LCM and the Context
Area.
Should a Housing and Market Needs Analysis be carried out for the broader SWGA, we highlight the findings of
this Study may require revision, specifically with respect to LCM and the Context Area’s role and capacity to
accommodate housing in the context of other precincts in the GA.
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1.3 STUDY STRUCTURE
This report focuses on the Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct and its potential role in accommodating population
and dwelling growth.
Chapter 2 provides an overview of the Study Area, including its context within the Growth Area, the applicable
planning policy framework, socio-demographic characteristics and expected infrastructure programme.
Chapter 3 investigates economic and market trends which influence market demand for housing and development.
Market activity is investigated including type of residential product, take-up and price points observed in the South
West region. Development activity is also investigated by examining the level and nature of developer interest, site
assembly and prices paid for development sites.
Chapter 4 projects housing demand (metropolitan Sydney in aggregate) and distributes the aggregate demand to
the Growth Areas based on a number of push/pull factors including the capacity of each growth area (from a
theoretical, services and market capacity) to accommodate that demand.
Chapter 5 analyses the implications of the analysis in the preceding chapters, focusing on the potential capacity
of the Study Area to accommodate projected housing demand in various housing formats and types.
We highlight the role and capacity for the Study Area to accommodate housing demand is considered in isolation,
without consideration to the role and capacity of other precincts in the SWGA.
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2. THE STUDY AREA
2.1 GROWTH AREAS AND PRECINCTS
The Sydney Growth Centres Program was established in 2005 by the NSW Department of Planning and
Environment and Commonwealth Government via the introduction of the State Environmental Planning Policy
(Sydney Region Growth Centres) 2006 (Growth Centres SEPP). The intention of the Growth Centres Program was
to develop new communities, homes, employment areas, health and education facilities and key infrastructure
facilities within designated greenfield areas.
The two growth centres initially established included the former North West Growth Centre and the South West
Growth Centre. The North West Growth Centre (NWGC) is now referred to as the North West Growth Area and
the South West Growth Centre (SWGC) has undergone a boundary change to create the South West Growth Area
(SWGA) and Western Sydney Growth Area (WSGA).
Following the Commonwealth Government’s announcement to develop the Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys
Creek, the Western Sydney Growth Area (WSGA) was established for lands surrounding the proposed airport site.
As a result, the boundaries of the former SWGC have been realigned.
The Greater Macarthur Growth Area (GMGA) was established in 2016 to include the areas of Wilton, Mt Gilead
and Menangle Park.
Of particular relevance to this Study is the South West, Western Sydney and Greater Macarthur Growth Areas.
Former South West Growth Centre
The former South West Growth Centre was approximately 17,000ha in size and straddled the local government
areas of Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown. The SWGC comprised 18 precincts, eight of which have been
released and/or rezoned for urban development.
Several major employment hubs are located just outside the former SWGC including Liverpool, Fairfield and
Campbelltown CBDs which incorporate major health, educational and retail facilities. Completion of the South West
Rail Link has been instrumental in ‘opening up’ access to and from the region to employment opportunities beyond.
Realignment of Boundaries
In line with formal commitment of Commonwealth funding to the Western Sydney Airport in 2017, the former SWGC
was realigned to form the Western Sydney and South West Growth Areas. The realignment has broadly resulted
in precincts north of Bringelly Road becoming part of the Western Sydney Growth Area with the remaining precincts
south of Bringelly Road forming part of South West Growth Area. Edmondson Park is understood to no longer fall
within a Growth Area following rezoning of the precinct in 2008.
The South West Growth Area now comprises circa 10-13 precincts, with parts of Bringelly, Rossmore and
Leppington North falling within the new boundaries however it is understood that detailed alignment of both Growth
Areas is still under review.
Figure 2.1 illustrates the broad boundary realignment and the newly created SWGA and WSGA.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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Figure 2.1: Boundary Realignment, SWGA and WSGA
Source: DPE
Greater Macarthur Growth Area
The Greater Macarthur Growth Area (GMGA) was formed in 2016 and comprises a number of precincts including
Menangle Park, Mt Gilead, West Appin and Wilton New Town. To date, Wilton New Town is the only precinct
recognised under the Growth Centres SEPP as a Growth Area however it is understood the entirety of the GMGA
will be formally gazetted shortly.
The Wilton New Town, Menangle Park, Mt Gilead and West Appin regions represent new land release areas
opportunities in the GMGA. Several developments have already been progressed within these regions, with a
number of planning proposals for Wilton, Mt Gilead and Menangle Park currently under assessment as per the
Precinct Acceleration Protocol (PAP) program.
Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct
The Context Area and Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct (LCM) fall within the boundaries of the SWGA. The
Context Area comprises rural land on the westernmost border of the SWGA, bordered by The Northern Road to
the east, Greendale Road to the north, Cobbitty to the south and the Nepean River to the west.
The lands are currently utilised for farming, agricultural and rural residential uses and was designated for future
urban development within Growth Centres SEPP as part of the former SWGC.
A 266ha site (LCM) within the Context Area is currently being progressed for early release and rezoning as per the
Precinct Acceleration Protocol (PAP) program. LCM is located circa 9km north-west of Narellan Town Centre and
7km west of the Leppington Railway Station and town centre and includes a 3km frontage to The Northern Road.
A Structure Plan is currently being prepared for LCM in accordance with a Voluntary Planning Agreement entered
into by the Proponent. The Structure Plan is understood to incorporate a broader catchment beyond the Site’s
boundaries, including the parts of the Lowes Creek, Marylands and Bringelly precincts.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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LCM comprises several large lots with little built form observed thereon. A number of lots fronting The Northern
Road are not in contiguous ownership however are included within the overall boundaries of LCM. Lowes Creek
bisects the Site and runs east-west through its centre.
2.2 PLANNING POLICY FRAMEWORK
This section focuses on the policy framework that enables development and delivery of the Growth Areas.
2.2.1 Greater Sydney Region Plan
The Greater Sydney Region Plan (the Region Plan, GSC, 2018a) seeks to accommodate the needs of Sydney’s
growing population into a metropolis of three cities: Western Parkland City, Central River City and Eastern Harbour
City, building on a vision where most residents live within 30 minutes of their jobs, education and health facilities.
The Study Area is located in greatest proximity to the new Western Parkland City.
Figure 2.2: Greater Sydney Region Plan
Source: GSC (2018a)
The Western Sydney Airport is the focus of the Western Parklands City; the City to comprise an ‘aerotropolis’ with
an employment hub of knowledge-intensive jobs focused on transport and logistics, advanced manufacturing and
health and education. As the only ‘greenfield’ city,; the Western Parklands City is envisaged to be well-designed
and provide new neighbourhoods with a high level of amenity and employment choice.
The Liveability Direction (Housing the City) aims to increase housing completions (by type) to support the rapidly
growing population of Greater Sydney. The draft Region Plan identifies a need for an additional 725,000 homes
across Greater Sydney by 2036 with development of housing targets and housing strategies are identified as key
actions in order to secure the sustained, long-term delivery of new housing across Greater Sydney.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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The Region Plan identifies where new housing is to be delivered based on the current infrastructure program and
NSW Government’s Growth Area Program. The Western Parkland City is identified as playing a major role in
accommodating new housing, accounting for circa 25% of the housing supply target to 2036.
Table 2.1: Housing Targets, 2016-2036 (Greater Sydney Region Plan)
District 2016-2021 Housing Supply Target 2016-2036 Housing Supply Target
Central City 53,500 207,500
Eastern City 46,550 157,500
Western City 39,850 184,500
North 25,950 92,000
South 23,250 83,500
Greater Sydney 189,100 725,000
Source: GSC (2018a)
The South West is identified as playing a major role in delivering new housing over the medium to long-term.
2.2.2 Western City District Plan
Building upon the strategic aims and objectives outlined in the Region Plan, the Western City District Plan (referred
to as the ‘District Plan’) sets out a 20-year vision, priorities and actions for Greater Sydney’s Western Parkland
City, which includes the local government areas of Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Fairfield,
Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Penrith and Wollondilly.
The District Plan identifies five major housing markets, namely Fairfield, Liverpool, South West (including the South
West and Greater Macarthur Growth Areas, Penrith-Blue Mountains and North West). The District Plan recognises
the different role each of these markets in providing different housing in response to varying levels of demand.
Whilst recognising market factors, the District Plan also considers local housing strategies in developing housing
targets for each respective LGA.
The District Plan outlines a five-year housing target of 11,800 new dwellings for Camden LGA by 2021. This
equates to just under 30% of the total five-year housing target for the Western City District.
Table 2.2: Western City District Housing Supply Targets
Local Government Area 2016-2021 Housing Supply Target
Blue Mountains 650
Camden 11,800
Campbelltown 6,800
Fairfield 3,050
Hawkesbury 1,150
Liverpool 8,250
Penrith 6,600
Wollondilly 1,550
Western City 39,850
Source: GSC (2018b)
A key action of the District Plan is for local councils to prepare housing strategies which outline how delivery of the
five-year housing target will be achieved, in addition to a 6 to 10-year housing target. Housing strategies should
also outline the capacity of local government areas to contribute to the long-term strategic housing target for District.
In addition to providing housing targets, the District Plan also outlines a centres hierarchy for the Western City; the
hierarchy based on the role, function, size and catchment of each centre as well as future expected residential
development and population.
The economic and employment benefits of the Western Sydney Airport (WSA) and their implications for the
Western City District are broadly outlined in the District Plan. The ability of the SWGA to leverage off this game-
changing piece of infrastructure by providing a range of housing types in close proximity to the WSA is a key
strategic goal of the District Plan, serving to further develop the Western City.
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‘Western City’
A central component of the Draft Plan is the establishment of the ‘Western City’ - a city centred around the Western
Sydney Airport and Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis which will create a once-in-a-generation economic boom, bringing
infrastructure, businesses and knowledge-intensive jobs for residents.
Planning for the Western Sydney Airport and Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis will be coordinated through the Western
Sydney City Deal which will involve collaboration between the Greater Sydney Commission, Australian
Government, NSW Government and local councils of Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Fairfield,
Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Penrith and Wollondilly.
The significant investment into the region supported by long-term strategic planning has direct implications for the
Study Area’s importance as a residential area supporting the future Western City.
2.2.3 Residential Planning Controls
Development control plans provide the planning, design and environmental objectives and controls against which
development applications are assessed. In accordance with respective development control plans, minimum lot
sizes for each dwelling type must comply with the minimum lot size provisions permitted by the Growth Centres
SEPP.
Given the Study Area falls within the Camden LGA boundaries, future urban development within the Study Area
will be governed by both the Growth Centres SEPP and future amendments to the Camden Growth Centre
Precincts Development Control Plan 2014.
State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Growth Areas)
The Growth Centres SEPP is an environmental planning instrument prepared under the plan making provisions in
the EP&A Act. The SEPP establishes the land use zoning and development controls for all the land within the
Growth Centres. Consent authorities, such as local councils, must apply the provisions and consider the objectives
of the Growth Centres SEPP when they make planning decisions about land within the Growth Centres.
Where a precinct has not yet been released for urban development and zoned under the Growth Centres SEPP
the local planning controls contained within the relevant Council local environmental plan (LEP) apply. The Growth
Centres SEPP also requires consent authorities to consider the intended future use of land as described by the
Structure Plans and Explanatory Notes when assessing certain development applications within the Growth
Centres to ensure development proposed to proceed in advance of precinct planning does not affect the future
delivery of the Growth Centres.
Over time, as precincts are released and precinct planning is completed, land within the Growth Centres will be
rezoned by making amendments to the SEPP. This will occur after the preparation of a Precinct Plan that is guided
by the Growth Centres Structure Plans and the Development Code.
A number of mechanisms, plans and policies apply in conjunction with the Growth Centres SEPP to facilitate
delivery of housing in Sydney’s Growth Areas.
The next section investigates the socio-demographic profile of existing residents within the Study Area and broader
SWGA.
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2.3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
In order to understand the nature of housing demand in an area, it is useful to consider both the current and
historical socio-demographic profile of residents. This is important as it provides insight into the current profile of
residents and facilitates an understanding of how that profile might have evolved over time.
This section provides a snapshot of the socio-demographic profile of the SWGA in comparison to the broader
region within which it is located, specifically the LGAs of Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown. Where relevant,
comparisons are made to the NWGA.
The basis of the demographic analysis is the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) geographical level known as
Statistical Area Level 2 (SA2), which broadly comprises 2-3 suburbs.
The SA2s (Cobbitty - Leppington and Austral - Greendale) do not align with the boundary of the newly formed
SWGA, however more broadly representing the geographies of the former SWGC. Given that market
characteristics within the former SWGC are broadly comparable, analysis of these two SA2 statistical areas is
considered useful to provide insight into the nature of households drawn to the region over the analysis period
of 2006-2016.
In order to provide a broader set of comparisons where possible the SA2s have been compared to the Local
Government Areas (LGAs) which they straddle. Accordingly, the limitations of non-aligned boundaries of the
data and analysis areas are acknowledged.
For the purposes of referencing the SA2 statistical areas analysed, “former SGWC” is used.
Figure 2.3: SWGA Analysis Area
Source: ArcGIS, AEC
Mulgoa – Luddenham –Orchard Hills
Warragamba -Silverdale
The Oaks - Oakdale
Camden –Ellis Lane
Elderslie –Harrington Park
Badgerys Creek
Horsley Park –Kemps Creek
Mount Annan – CurransHill
Claymore –Eagle Vale –Raby
Ingleburn –Denham Court
West Hoxton – Middleton Grange
Blue Mountains - South
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2.3.1 Population
Historical Population Growth
The population in the former SWGC increased from 15,252 persons in 2006 to 27,673 persons in 2016, equating
to an increase of 12,421 persons or 81.4%. This represents an average annual increase of 6.1%. This is higher
than Camden LGA (4.7%), Liverpool LGA (2.3%) and Campbelltown LGA (1.0%).
Table 2.3: Historical Population Growth, 2006-2016
Statistical Analysis Areas 2006 2011 2016 Change (2006-2016)
No. % Avg. Annual
Former SWGC 15,252 15,924 27,673 12,421 81.4% 6.1%
Camden LGA 50,628 58,439 80,476 29,848 59.0% 4.7%
Campbelltown LGA 146,538 151,173 161,409 14,871 10.1% 1.0%
Liverpool LGA 169,868 188,088 212,232 42,364 24.9% 2.3%
Source: ABS (2017a).
The average age of residents in the former SWGC is 35.4 years. The predominant age group is 30-44 years
(22.5%), followed by 0-14 years (22.0%) and 15-29 years (21.4%). These three age groups are also the
predominant age groups for Camden, Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs, albeit the 0-14 year age cohort is the
most prevalent age group for these three regions. The dominant age group of 30-44 years represents the household
formation years and expectedly result in commensurate high concentrations in children aged 0-14 years.
Household Structure
The former SWGC contains a high proportion of family households (78.3%), followed by lone person households
(12.5%), consistent with Camden, Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs.
Table 2.4: Household Composition, 2016
Household Type Former SWGC
Camden LGA
Campbelltown LGA
Liverpool LGA
Family households 78.3% 81.6% 75.5% 77.1%
Lone person households 12.5% 13.2% 17.5% 14.6%
Group households 1.6% 1.4% 2.2% 1.6%
Other households 7.6% 3.8% 4.8% 6.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: ABS (2017b).
In 2016, the majority of residents in the former SWGC owned their home with a mortgage (41.7%), followed by
those who own their home outright (30.7%) and those who rent (26.4%).
Between 2006 and 2016, the proportion of those who own their home outright declined from 46.3% to 30.7%, with
the vast majority of that decline occurring between 2011 and 2016. The proportion of those owning their home with
a mortgage increased from 29.1% to 41.7% between 2006 and 2016.
Table 2.5: Household Ownership, 2006-2016
Household Ownership 2006 2011 2016
Owned outright 46.3% 45.6% 30.7%
Owned with a mortgage 29.1% 27.6% 41.7%
Rented 23.8% 25.8% 26.4%
Other tenure type 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: ABS (2017b).
Table 2.6 indicates the proportion of household income utilised for mortgage repayments or rent across the former
SWGC. The area has similar proportions of income going toward mortgage repayments to Liverpool LGA at
approximately 28%. This is slightly higher than the other comparison regions.
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Table 2.6: Housing Income and Housing Costs, 2016
Household Type Former SWGC Camden LGA Campbelltown LGA Liverpool LGA
Average Weekly Household Income $2,154 $2,210 $1,718 $1,840
Average Weekly Mortgage Repayment $597 $549 $458 $513
Average Weekly Rent $455 $444 $332 $363
% of household income spent on mortgage 27.7% 24.8% 26.6% 27.9%
% of household income spent on rent 21.1% 20.1% 19.3% 19.7%
Source: ABS (2017c).
For contextual purposes, Table 2.7 compares the former SWGC household incomes and housing costs against
those of NWGA and Greater Sydney. Mortgage costs as a proportion of household incomes in former SWGC are
marginally higher than those in NWGA and Greater Sydney. Notably, household incomes in NWGA are at higher
levels, resulting in greater tolerance to housing costs.
Table 2.7. Household Income and Housing Costs, 2016
Household Type Former SWGC NWGA Greater Sydney
Average Weekly Household Income $2,154 $2,498 $2,119
Average Weekly Mortgage Repayment $597 $626 $559
Average Weekly Rent $455 $510 $463
% of household income spent on mortgage 27.7% 25.0% 26.4%
% of household income spent on rent 21.1% 20.4% 21.9%
Source: ABS (2017c).
2.3.2 Dwellings
Historical Dwelling Growth
The number of occupied dwellings in the former SWGC increased from 4,822 in 2006 to 8,705 in 2016, equating
to an increase of 3,883 dwellings or 80.5%. This represents an average annual increase of 6.1%.
Table 2.8: Historical Population Growth, 2006-2016
Former SWGC 2006 2011 2016 Change (2006-2016)
No. % Average Annual
Separate house 4,654 4,726 8,508 3,854 82.8% 6.2%
Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse 59 42 118 59 100.0% 7.2%
Flat, unit or apartment 13 26 22 9 69.2% 5.4%
Other dwelling 96 127 57 -39 40.6% -5.1%
Total 4,822 4,921 8,705 3,883 80.5% 6.1%
Source: ABS (2017a).
Dwelling Structure
The majority of occupied dwellings in the former SWGC in 2016 were separate houses (97.7%) with small
proportions of semi-detached houses (1.4%) and apartments (0.3%). The proportion of separate houses has grown
marginally since 2006.
Table 2.9: Dwelling Structure, 2006-2016
Dwellings Structure 2006 2011 2016
Separate house 96.5% 96.0% 97.7%
Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse 1.2% 0.9% 1.4%
Flat, unit or apartment 0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Other dwelling 2.0% 2.6% 0.6%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: ABS (2017b).
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For contextual purposes, Table 2.10 compares the dwelling structure of former SWGC against that of NWGA and
Greater Sydney. The former SWGC has a higher proportion of separate houses (97.7%) to that of NWGA (84.8%)
and substantially higher than that of Greater Sydney (55.9%).
Table 2.10: Dwelling Structure, 2016
Dwellings Structure Former SWGC NWGA Greater Sydney
Separate house 97.7% 84.8% 55.9%
Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse 1.4% 11.3% 14.1%
Flat, unit or apartment 0.3% 1.0% 29.3%
Other dwelling 0.6% 2.9% 0.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: ABS (2017b).
New residential building approvals data in the table below suggests the number of separate houses as a proportion
of total new dwellings in the South West region as well as the former SWGC is declining in favour of medium and
higher density formats.
Table 2.11: Building Approvals, 2011-2017
Former SWGC and SA4s
Detached Houses
Semi-detached, Row/terrace Houses, Townhouses
Flats, Units, Attached dwellings
Total
No. % No. % No. % No. %
2011-12
Former SWGC 371 98.4% 6 1.6% 0 0.0% 377 100.0%
South West 1,387 74.1% 87 4.6% 398 21.3% 1,872 100.0%
Outer South West 1,047 79.1% 244 18.4% 33 2.5% 1,324 100.0%
2012-13
Former SWGC 657 81.0% 154 19.0% 0 0.0% 811 100.0%
South West 2,131 85.7% 260 10.5% 95 3.8% 2,486 100.0%
Outer South West 1,189 67.7% 428 24.4% 138 7.9% 1,755 100.0%
2013-14
Former SWGC 736 92.9% 11 1.4% 45 5.7% 792 100.0%
South West 2,572 65.9% 219 5.6% 1,113 28.5% 3,904 100.0%
Outer South West 1,647 79.2% 132 6.3% 301 14.5% 2,080 100.0%
2014-15
Former SWGC 1,320 98.1% 26 1.9% 0 0.0% 1,346 100.0%
South West 3,336 75.1% 255 5.7% 852 19.2% 4,443 100.0%
Outer South West 2,021 74.1% 273 10.0% 434 15.9% 2,728 100.0%
2015-16
Former SWGC 1,598 93.2% 117 6.8% 0 0.0% 1,715 100.0%
South West 3,935 73.9% 528 9.9% 859 16.1% 5,322 100.0%
Outer South West 2,334 78.3% 411 13.8% 235 7.9% 2,980 100.0%
2016-17
Former SWGC 1,760 84.1% 162 7.7% 170 8.1% 2,092 100.0%
South West 3,950 55.1% 936 13.1% 2,277 31.8% 7,163 100.0%
Outer South West 2,242 80.3% 414 14.8% 135 4.8% 2,791 100.0%
2017-18 (up to July)
Former SWGC 218 79.9% 55 20.1% 0 0.0% 273 100.0%
South West 338 45.2% 113 15.1% 296 39.6% 747 100.0%
Outer South West 228 83.5% 41 15.0% 4 1.5% 273 100.0%
Source: ABS (2017d).
While not all residential buildings approved will eventuate into construction and delivery of new housing, the above
market activity by dwelling type is indicative of the market sentiment and composition of new housing supply.
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Household Occupancy
Household occupancy rates are observed to have been steadily rising in the Camden LGA to approximately 3.13
persons per dwelling in 2016, from 3.08 persons per dwelling in 2011 and 3.06 residents per dwelling in 2006.
Table 2.12 analyses household occupancy rates observed in the Camden LGA over the 2006-2016 period
compared against the neighbouring LGAs.
Table 2.12: Household Occupancy, 2006-2016
Statistical Analysis Areas 2006 2011 2016
Camden LGA 3.06 3.08 3.13
Campbelltown LGA 2.99 2.97 2.99
Liverpool LGA 3.15 3.19 3.25
Wollondilly LGA 3.01 3.01 3.07
Source: ABS (2017a,b)
As observed from Table 2.12, household occupancy rates across the LGAs have broadly increased over the 2006-
2016 period, the rate of increase observed to be the least marked in Campbelltown LGA.
Housing Affordability Threshold
Analysis of recently released income profile data (ABS, 2016) was undertaken to determine tolerance for house
prices within the SWGA. A housing affordability threshold assessment is undertaken by assessing the household
income distribution of residents within the SWGA against loan and rental costs. This is then compared against
common housing affordability metrics (% of household income spent on housing).
It is worth noting that between 2011 and 2016 average annual household income in the South West region grew
by between 3.5% and 7% per annum. This suggests many new and more affluent households moved into the
region over the period.
Analysis of recently released income profile data (ABS, 2016) was undertaken to determine tolerance for house
prices within the former SWGC. A housing affordability threshold assessment was undertaken by assessing the
household income distribution of residents within the former SWGC against loan and rental costs. This is then
compared against common housing affordability metrics (% of household income spent on housing).
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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Table 2.13: Former SWGC Housing Affordability Threshold
Source: ABS (2017c), AEC
The above analysis is useful in several respects. ABS data indicates that the current average annual household income within the former SWGC is $112,000. Accordingly,
between 30% and 44% of the resident population falls within 10%-15% on either side of average household income. Table 2.13 (red text) indicates the income band within which
the average household income falls. Resident households that fall within these bands (based on mortgage repayment assumptions) can theoretically afford housing priced
between $540,000 and $675,000.
Market investigations indicate a popularity for product priced below $700,000-$750,000. The affordability threshold analysis indicates fewer than 30% of current residents can
afford this level of pricing, conceivably either settling for a product of smaller format or renting. Similar analysis of the Liverpool and Campbelltown suggests residents within
these LGAs have even less capacity to pay for housing given their respectively lower median household incomes.
As household incomes increase, their capacity to pay for housing also rises (as a proportion of their income) before falling into mortgage stress. The 30% commonly adopted
threshold for mortgage stress is typically applied to lower income households.
Household Income
% of Households who can afford
Household Income
(Weekly)
Rental Weekly Rental
Ownership Monthly Loan Deposit Home Affordability
$20,750 94% $399 25% $100 30% $519 $73,396 $7,340 $80,736
$33,750 87% $649 24% $156 35% $984 $139,276 $13,928 $153,204
$41,550 81% $799 30% $240 35% $1,212 $171,464 $17,146 $188,611
$51,950 75% $999 30% $300 37% $1,602 $226,632 $22,663 $249,296
$64,950 66% $1,249 30% $375 38% $2,057 $291,003 $29,100 $320,104
$77,950 58% $1,499 30% $450 40% $2,598 $367,630 $36,763 $404,393
$103,950 44% $1,999 30% $600 40% $3,465 $490,252 $49,025 $539,277
$129,950 30% $2,499 30% $750 40% $4,332 $612,874 $61,287 $674,162
$155,950 19% $2,999 30% $900 40% $5,198 $735,496 $73,550 $809,046
$181,950 12% $3,499 40% $1,400 40% $6,065 $858,118 $85,812 $943,930
$207,950 7.8% $3,999 40% $1,600 40% $6,932 $980,740 $98,074 $1,078,814
$208,000 5.5% $4,000 40% $1,600 40% $6,933 $980,976 $98,098 $1,079,073
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Key findings of the socio-demographic analysis in the former SWGC include:
• The average annual population growth rate between 2006 and 2016 of 6.1% was higher than the Camden,
Campbelltown and Liverpool LGAs.
• An average age of 35.4 years, with the major age cohorts being 30-44 years (22.5%), 0-14 years (22%) and
15-29 years (21.4%).
• Household types are dominated by families (78.3%), similar to that of Liverpool LGA (77.1%). Lone person
households are less dominant, circa 12.5%.
• Between 2006 and 2016, the proportion of those who own their home outright declined from 46.3% to 30.7%,
with most of that decline occurring between 2011 and 2016.
• Nearly 28% of average household incomes was spent on mortgage repayments, similar to that of Liverpool
LGA but higher than the other comparison regions. Rent is more affordable with approximately 21% of
average household incomes spent on rent.
• Separate houses dominate, higher than the comparison LGAs and much higher than NWGA and Greater
Sydney. However, this will change as separate houses as a proportion of total new residential building
approvals has declined in recent years.
• The housing affordability threshold for existing residents is circa $540,000-$675,000 premised on average
annual household income.
Notwithstanding current dwelling structure, it is expected that over time there will be an inevitable shift towards
more dense forms of housing particularly given the already high proportions of household income spent on
mortgage costs and the difficulty for resident households to purchase based on current income levels.
The following section investigates the infrastructure pipeline observed within the SWGA and surrounding areas.
2.4 INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMME
The Study Area and broader SWGA are set to greatly benefit from a number of transport infrastructure projects at
various stages of planning and delivery. Focused on and around the Western Sydney Airport, a series of rail and
road projects if delivered will greatly improve accessibility of the Study Area and wider region.
The Western Sydney City Deal was signed between the Commonwealth Government, NSW State Government
and eight local governments of Western Sydney in March 2018.
The City Deal is a 20-year agreement to deliver on transformation of Sydney’s outer west. It delivers on a
commitment made through a Memorandum of Understanding between the Commonwealth and NSW State
Government in October 2016.
The City Deal leverages the Commonwealth Government’s $5.3 billion investment in Western Sydney Airport to
catalyse investment, development and employment opportunities.
The significant volume of infrastructure investment being planned and delivered within Western Sydney underpins
a concerted whole-of-government approach to developing the Western City as envisaged in the District Plan.
Key pieces of infrastructure investment which will influence the role of the Study Area and SWGA are discussed.
Western Sydney Airport
The Western Sydney Airport will influence the shift of economic and employment activity towards western Sydney.
Located at Badgerys Creek approximately 8km north of the Site, the WSA is expected to be operational by 2026
and service approximately 5 million passengers, rising to 10 million passengers in 2031 (DIRD, 2016). Long-term
projections suggest the WSA is expected to accommodate approximately 82 million passengers per annum by
2063.
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The Western Sydney Airport will provide obvious access benefits for residents within Western Sydney and convey
major economic and employment opportunities upon commencement of operations. Employment projections
indicate the WSA will accommodate circa 28,000 direct and indirect jobs by the early 2030’s (DIRD, 2016).
The project is being funded off-budget via the newly established government-controlled Western Sydney Airport
Corporation with expenditure to be regained via a potential sale of the Western Sydney Airport Corporation to the
private sector.
South West Rail Extension
The South West Rail Extension was one of six options considered in the joint Commonwealth and NSW
Government Western Sydney Rail Needs Scoping Study which is investigating potential routes to support the
Western Sydney Airport.
The Extension would spur west from the existing South West Rail Link terminus in Leppington to Bringelly from
which the Extension would travel north to the T1 Western Line at St Marys and south to the T2 South Line at
Narellan. New stations would include Rossmore, Bringelly, North Bringelly, Oran Park and the Western Sydney
Airport at Badgerys Creek. Additional stations along the proposed route, including Marylands, are also being
considered.
Figure 2.4: Proposed South West Rail Extension
Source: TfNSW (2016)
Whilst yet formally confirmed or funded, the South West Rail Extension is understood to be the preferred rail option
identified in the Scoping Study given recent announcements made by TfNSW. The likely timeframe for delivery of
the Extension would be circa 2036. For the purposes of this Study, instructions from DPE are to assume delivery
of the South West Rail Extension, including a Marylands train station, will be operational by 2036.
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Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan
The key strategic document guiding the planning and delivery of road infrastructure within Western Sydney is the
Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan (RMS, 2016), a joint Commonwealth and NSW Government strategic 10-year
project planned to deliver circa $3.6 billion road infrastructure investment. The key objective of the Plan is to support
and capitalise on the benefits of WSA, with an upshot being the drastically improved accessibility for precincts
within the SWGA, including the Study Area.
The Plan comprises funding for a mix of major and local road upgrades. Significant projects currently funded under
the Plan with direct implications for the Study Area include:
• Bringelly Road Upgrade ($509 million)
A 10km upgrade of Bringelly Road is being delivered across two stages between Camden Valley Way at
Leppington and The Northern Road at Bringelly. Part of the upgrade will involve increasing Bringelly Road from
two lanes to a six lane divided road through the future Leppington Town Centre with the remainder increasing
to a four lane divided road with capacity for two additional lanes in the future. Both stages of the upgrade are
currently under construction with Stage 1 scheduled for completion in late 2017 with Stage 2 due for completion
in 2020.
• The Northern Road Upgrade ($1.6 billion)
The 35km upgrade of The Northern Road from The Old Northern Road (Narellan) to Jamison Road (South
Penrith) is delivered in six stages. Stage 1 (Old Northern Road, Narellan to Peter Brock Drive, Oran Park)
involves the construction of 3.3km new road, currently under construction and due for completion in 2018.
Stage 2 will comprise circa 11km of upgrade roadway featuring six lanes and six intersections, including a
major interchange at The Northern Road and Bringelly Road. Stage 2 construction is expected to commence
in late 2017 with completion scheduled for 2020. The Site has a direct frontage to this section of the upgrade
and will benefit significantly from the increased north-south access.
The remaining stages are currently in planning stages with completions also scheduled for 2020.
• M12 Motorway ($1.25 billion)
The 14km M12 motorway is proposed to connect the M7 Motorway near Cecil Hills to The Northern Road at
Luddenham, providing direct access from the Sydney motorway network to the Western Sydney Airport. The
roadway is to be motorway grade with four lanes, potentially expanded to six lanes in the future. The project is
expected to commence in 2020 with completion scheduled for 2024.
A map of works for the Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan is annexed as Appendix A.
Outer Sydney Orbital
The Outer Sydney Orbital would comprise a 70km major motorway linking the Hills LGA in the north (Windsor
Road) to the Camden LGA in the south (Hume Highway) with an associated freight rail line being considered to
run parallel to the proposed motorway. The project is set to dramatically improve freight connectivity between
metropolitan Sydney and regional NSW. Funding for early planning has been provided with technical studies
currently being tabled; should the project receive Government endorsement completion would be post 2036.
The proposed corridor route for the Outer Sydney Orbital is significant given it falls adjacent the western boundary
of the Study Area and thus would provide further access options for future residents.
The next section discusses the implications for planning policies, demographic findings and infrastructure
programme for future housing demand in the Study Area.
2.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING DEMAND
Lower than expected actual dwellings growth compared to projected growth over the 2011-2016 period resulted in
a foregone opportunity to meet housing demand. This resulted in an unmet housing need, characterised by rising
rents and prices and rising household sizes across parts of Sydney.
Strategic planning, sociodemographic characteristics and infrastructure investment jointly influence the demand for
housing within the Study Area.
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Key factors that will influence demand for land and housing within the Study include:
• Location within the established South West Growth Area which has gathered momentum and status as a
residential area since initial release in 2005.
• Concerted, whole-of-government agenda to establish the region as a major residential and employment
generating area servicing the Western City focused around Western Sydney Airport.
• Significant volume of infrastructure investment (being delivered and in the pipeline) including the Western
Sydney Airport, South West Rail Extension and number of major and local roadway projects which will allow
for the mass movement of people at the international, interstate and local level.
• Household occupancy rates which have shown an upward trend, particularly in LGAs where new subdivisions
in greenfield/release areas are prevalent.
• Nearly 28% of average household incomes were spent on mortgage repayments, similar to that of Liverpool
LGA but higher than the other comparison regions. Rent is more affordable with approximately 21% of average
household incomes spent on rent.
• Separate houses comprise nearly all of the housing, higher than the comparison LGAs and much higher than
NWGA and Greater Sydney. However, this will likely change as separate houses as a proportion of total new
residential building approvals has declined in recent years in favour of higher densities and smaller format
product.
• The housing affordability threshold for existing residents within the former SWGC is circa $540,000 and
$675,000 premised on average annual household income. There is little remaining capacity to tolerate much
greater price levels.
These key implications suggest that the Study Area will play an important role to accommodate housing demand,
albeit the outlook for continued price growth across the wider SWGA is fragile given current income levels.
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3. ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONTEXT
This chapter investigates current market dynamics influencing the supply and demand of residential property within
the SWGA and surrounds.
3.1 ECONOMIC TRENDS AND DRIVERS
A softening of economic conditions in metropolitan Sydney’s residential market is widely commented upon amid
strong supply completions in certain markets. Despite tightening lending restrictions and low wage growth, the
long-term outlook for the Sydney residential market is good, underpinned by strong fundamentals including:
• Strong projected population growth.
• Historically low interest rates.
• Relatively low unemployment rates.
• Historic undersupply resulting in significant housing shortfall and pent up demand.
These core fundamentals ultimately form the core drivers to demand. It is an undisputed fact that dwelling
completions over the last decade have fallen well below the number needed to meet underlying demand. This
resulted in rapid house and rental price growth since 2013-14 with recent supply yet to have a substantial impact
on price growth in many markets. Recent census data indicates population growth over the 2011-2016 period
exceeded expectations however dwellings growth fell short of previous projections.
Housing affordability within metropolitan Sydney is a focal point of public commentary and recent Federal and State
government policy. The transition to high-rise living has been inevitable as a result of rising house prices, lifestyle
preferences for low maintenance property with high amenity and a shrinking average family size. That said, in
areas of western Sydney where there is availability of existing houses at comparable pricing ($600,000-$800,000),
market acceptance of high-density product has been slower as detached houses compete with new apartment
product.
With affordability becoming a key consideration for many younger households, the shift towards smaller dwellings
and lot sizes in many greenfield precincts such as the NWGA and SWGA has gained momentum over the past 12-
24 months. Developers have responded in-kind within the SWGA; numerous residential subdivisions progressed
over the course of 2017 have comprised high proportions of lots sized from 225sqm to 300sqm.
South West Growth Area
Affordability and level of surrounding infrastructure drives market preference and compromise in the SWGA.
Anecdotal evidence from local agents notes <300sqm lots and/or house and land packages are particularly
appealing to first home buyers (FHBs) given their more ‘manageable’ price points (sub-$700,000 in most cases).
This has also transcended into appeal for medium-density style product, where strong interest for land and H&L
packages on lots circa 200sqm has generated strong responses from the market. For example, the recent release
of townhouse product at Arcadian Hills (Cobbitty) in mid-2017 was met with swift take-up rates from the FHB
contingent.
Whilst smaller lots are continuing to receive swift take-up rates, the most popular lot sizes remain at 350sqm-
400sqm. Two door garages are particularly popular, owing to the lack of alternative public transport options in many
estates throughout the SWGA and two-car lifestyle of purchasers. Many marketing agents have noted that some
buyers have opted for a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 door garage product over a 4 bed, 2 bath, 1 door garage product. The
importance of car spaces remains strong in precincts despite where public transport options exist (Edmondson
Park). Car spaces are of even more importance in areas where no transport alternatives exist (e.g. Cobbitty).
Owner occupiers are understood to be the dominant purchaser cohort in the SWGA accounting for circa 60%-65%
of all buyers. Of these FHBs and young families are particularly dominant, many relocating from the major centres
of South-West Sydney such as Campbelltown and Liverpool whilst others are relocating from Western Sydney
(Penrith LGA). A strong investor market is also active within the SWGA with strong interest observed from Sydney-
based investors.
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3.2 MARKET ACTIVITY
This section contains a summary of general market activity observed across the SWGA based upon informal
discussions with local marketing agents and development managers in addition to reference to industry databases.
Buyer profile, pricing and market preferences provide insight into the likely market demand for residential product
within the Study Area.
3.2.1 Lots/House and Land Packages
Price growth across the major land estates within the SWGA has tempered over the course of 2017 with the major
estates recording growth of circa 1% with the exception of New Breeze at Bardia and Willowdale at Leppington
which have observed strong upward movements (circa 12%-18%). However, local sales and marketing agents
have noted a distinct uptick in buying activity following the commencement of stamp duty concessions for FHBs in
July 2017; many estates are understood to now be considering price increases of circa 5% in Q1 2018 to align with
new stage releases.
Lot prices vary and range from $350,000 up to >$700,000 depending on land size, location and quality of the
respective estate. House and land package pricing is subject to similar variables, ranging from $650,000 to
$1,100,000, the latter being observed in more established markets such as Edmondson Park. Completed
townhouse product, owing to their affordability, has also become readily accepted by the market. Strong take-up
rates have been observed for such product at Oran Park Town and Arcadian Hills with completed townhouses on
sub-220sqm lots achieving $600,000-$700,000.
Anecdotal evidence from local agents indicates that whilst owner occupier buyers are predominantly Australian
born, many estates are observed to be attracting strong interest from first and second generation migrants often of
Indian or Sub-Saharan descent. Proximity to places of worship can have direct implications on the appeal of estates
to such buyers; for example over 85% of purchasers at the New Breeze estate at Bardia are understood to be of
Sub-Saharan descent with the location of several Hindu and Sikh temples within a 10km-15km radius a major
driver.
Local agents note that the established markets such as Edmondson Park, Austral and Leppington tend to generate
stronger levels of enquiries from buyers following the completion of the South West Rail Link. Development within
these markets is observed to be focusing on the provision of smaller lot sizes and typologies as developers leverage
their proximity to rail infrastructure. H&L packages have increasingly exceeded the buying capacity of many FHBs
in the major estates with upgraders and investors more attracted to such product. For example, 450sqm lot H&L
packages at Willowdale Estate comprising 4-5 bedrooms are now priced circa $800,000-$900,000.
Observations in the following estates are indicative of market activity and trends currently observed within the
SWGA and surrounds.
• Arcadian Hills, Cobbitty
The Arcadian Hills estate comprises 180 lots across circa 65ha approximately 2km west of the Oran Park town
centre and is located adjacent the southern border of the Study Area. Lots range from 300sqm to 665sqm with
both vacant blocks and H&L packages available. Overwhelming majority of buyers are owner occupiers who
already reside within South West Sydney; many being young families relocating from Liverpool, Campbelltown
and surrounding suburbs. An upswing in demand from FHBs has been observed since Q3 2017 as a result of
the stamp duty changes for this buyer cohort.
Affordability is the primary driver at the estate given the dominance of the FHB cohort; H&L packages below
$700,000 are the most demanded product typology with smaller vacant blocks (300sqm-350sqm) priced circa
$400,000-$450,000 also popular as total land and building costs can be kept to circa $700,000-$750,000. A
total of 12 townhouses have been released to date (185sqm-250sqm internal) on small lots 200sqm-225sqm;
these were quickly absorbed by the market given their affordability.
• Oran Park Town, Oran Park
The Oran Park Town is the primary estate within Oran Park with approximately 8,000 dwellings targeted for
delivery. Jointly developed by both Landcom and Greenfields Development Company, the estate has sold
approximately 4,000 lots to date with keen interest observed over the course of 2017.
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Good demand is observed from investors and owner occupiers alike; both buyer cohorts accounting for
approximately half of sales to date. Vacant blocks between 375sqm and 400sqm have been most popular to
date amongst owner occupiers given their manageable price points ($400,000-$415,000) and good site
capacity for construction of relatively large dwellings (4 bedroom, 2 door garage). Investors are targeting larger
lots (>450sqm) with potential for further subdivision or dual occupancies. This has further pressured many
FHBs into opting for more affordable, smaller lots.
A strong response to medium-density townhouse product has been received in recent releases over the course
of 2017; provision of a larger release of townhouse-style lots sized between 250sqm and 300sqm is expected
over the coming 6-12 months.
• Station Rise, Edmondson Park
Located circa 500m north of the Edmonson Park train station, the Station Rise estate was recently released in
early 2017 and comprises approximately 50 lots being delivered as both vacant blocks and H&L packages.
This scale of estate is typical in the current Edmondson Park market where large numbers of smaller
developers dominate the development pipeline. The estate is approximately 80% sold to date with local agents
noting a spike in interest over the past 3-6 months.
Lots range from 350sqm to 550sqm and similar to broader market activity FHBs dominate the 350sqm-400sqm
bracket due to lower price points. To date, the buyer profile has been slightly slanted to investors, comprising
circa 60% of all purchases thus far. Larger H&L packages (475sqm-550sqm) often comprise an additional
granny flat to the rear; these packages are securing sale prices circa $1m to $1.1m. The investor cohort has
had a large amount of interest from Chinese international investors to date, with the local selling agent
indicating this has allowed for strong price increases over the course of the year.
Owner occupiers are a strong mix of both FHBs and upgraders, the vast majority of these relocating from
nearby centres of Liverpool and Campbelltown. Upgraders from these areas are seeking new, better quality
accommodation with many relocating from older townhouses or apartments.
• Parklands, Austral
The Parklands estate within Austral is approximately 1km west of the M7 Motorway in the northern section of
Austral. The estate comprises a total 45 lots ranging from 270sqm to 550sqm with just over 50% of all lots
sized below 350sqm.
Given their small size, the estate has attracted strong demand from the FHB cohort opting for lots below
350sqm as prices for such stock are circa $380,000-$420,000. The local agents note that many buyers are
limited to circa $700,000 total land and build cost, with strong competition in Stage 1 of release seeing smaller
lots quickly absorbed prior to lots >400sqm.
The estate is approximately 70% sold to date with the local agent noting swift take-up rates since
commencement of the FHB stamp duty discount in July 2017. Similar to many other estates nearby, owner
occupier buyers are predominantly relocating from existing centres within western Sydney, including Fairfield,
Liverpool and Campbelltown.
3.2.2 Apartments
Edmondson Park and Leppington are the only sub-markets within the former SWGC which have progressed
marketing for apartment products with three projects observed to date - 240 Croatia Avenue, Edmondson Park
(105 apartments, 4 storeys), 5 Rynan Avenue, Edmondson Park (110 apartments, 4 storeys) and 202 Byron Road,
Leppington (534 apartments, 9 storeys across five buildings).
Informal discussions with marketing agents indicate take-up rates have been swift with the initial release of 240
Croatia Avenue (27 apartments) selling out over a three-month period following release in February 2017 (average
of 9 sales per month), with the second stage due to be released in Q4 2017. The site is well-located within 700m
of the Edmondson Park train station.
A slower response was received to 5 Rynan Avenue with the second stage of 25 apartments released in mid-2016
and selling out in December 2016, equating to 3-4 sales per month. This is understood to be largely a result of the
sites distance from Edmondson train station, which is some 2km to the south.
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202 Byron Road in Leppington is currently seeking expressions of interests prior to the initial release in Q4 2017.
Located approximately 600m east of Leppington train station, the mixed-use development is currently under review
by Camden Council. Indicative pricing for two bedroom units is circa $600,000-$650,000, which is in line with the
sales achieved for similar product at 240 Croatia Ave, Edmondson Park.
Local agents note that given the immaturity of the high-density market within the SWGA, the value proposition
afforded to apartment product must be strong enough to attract buyers who would otherwise choose new low-
density housing or medium-density housing. For example, strong market resistance to 3 bedroom units is noted
at 5 Rynan Avenue given their price points largely comparable to housing on small lots (300sqm) or medium-
density townhouses which are typically sub-$700,000.
Unit sizes observed at three apartment developments currently being offered are slightly larger than units within
more established high-density markets as developers compete with similarly priced low and medium density
product.
Residential unit mix is highly focused on two bedroom product with a review of the residential pipeline indicating
most developments have at least 50% as two bedroom units. One bedroom apartments are also well represented;
ranging from 20% to 40% of the unit mix. Three bedroom apartments are not heavily featured in current apartment
developments owing to their respective price points which approach house and land packages.
Table 3.1 analyses the unit mix of the higher density development pipeline observed in Edmondson Park and
Leppington.
Table 3.1: Residential Unit Mix
Address Units Unit Mix
Studio 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed
No. % No. % No. % No. %
Edmondson Park
5 & 15 Rynan Av 110 0 0% 24 22% 69 63% 17 15%
245 Croatia Av 105 11 10% 11 10% 72 69% 11 10%
190 Croatia Ave 94 0 0% 19 20% 70 74% 5 5%
Leppington
120 Ingleburn Rd 672 0 0% 263 39% 358 53% 51 8%
202 Byron Rd 534 0 0% 60 11% 448 84% 26 5%
107 Ingleburn Rd 397 0 0% 90 23% 191 48% 116 29%
76 Rickard Rd 250 0 0% 26 10% 207 83% 17 7%
Source: Cordell Connect
The next section analyses current development activity observed within the SWGA and surrounds.
3.2.3 Development Pipeline
A flurry of development activity is currently observed within the SWGA and nearby areas with large volumes of
development observed within the pipeline at various stages of delivery.
Leppington and Leppington East (Denham Court), Oran Park, and Gregory Hills (Turner Road) are the dominant
precincts within the new boundaries of the SWGA. Precincts such as Austal and Edmondson Park within the former
SWGC also exhibit significant levels of development proposals, as does Spring Farm and Gledswood Hills. The
GMGA land release areas are also poised to deliver vast numbers of new dwellings, albeit being at earlier stages
of planning and delivery.
Table 3.2 identifies approximately 13,000 dwellings are currently proposed within the SWGA pipeline either in the
planning or delivery stage. Whilst not all of these will eventuate into construction and delivery of dwellings it does
provide a good indication of current market sentiment.
A comprehensive list of the development pipeline is annexed to this Study as Appendix B.
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Table 3.2: Development Activity, SWGA and surrounds
Precinct Dwellings/ Lots
Development Typology
Lots/Houses Townhouses/Villas Apartments
SWGA
Cobbitty 507 100% 0% 0%
Catherine Field* 160 100% 0% 0%
Gregory Hills 1,814 100% 0% 0%
Leppington/Leppington East (Denham Court) 8,081 61% 0% 39%
Lowes Creek* - - - -
Marylands* - - - -
Oran Park 2,344 98% 0% 2%
Total 12,906
Nearby Precincts/Suburbs
Austral 1,858 89% 0% 11%
Bringelly* - - - -
Edmondson Park 2,684 86% 1% 13%
Gledswood Hills 1,617 98% 2% 0%
Kemps Creek* - - - -
Rossmore* - - - -
Camden 447 54% 2% 44%
Elderslie 430 100% 0% 0%
Mount Annan 168 16% 84% 0%
Narellan 564 12% 27% 61%
Spring Farm 2,459 100% 0% 0%
Total 10,227
GMGA (Land Release Areas)
Menangle Park 3,400 100% 0% 0%
Mt Gilead 1,655 100% 0% 0%
Wilton 16,500 100% 0% 0%
Total 21,555
*Does not include potential pipeline as per early planningSource: Cordell Connect
As observed from Table 3.2, low-density product accounts for the vast majority of all new development proposed
within the respective markets. Higher density apartment development is only observed in Leppington and
Edmondson Park, with almost 40% of all new dwellings proposed in Leppington apartment product. This is
particularly telling of the future nature of the Leppington precinct given its role as a major centre within the SWGA.
The volume of ongoing development activity as well as development which is proposed in the pipeline indicate a
dominance of activity in precincts where landholdings are controlled by a number of key developers and where
smaller developers have been able to assemble sites. These include the precincts Leppington/Leppington East,
Oran Park, Edmondson Park and Gregory Hills (Turner Road).
Nearby greenfield and established centres are also poised to deliver significant volumes of new dwellings,
particularly in Austral, Edmondson Park, Gledswood Hills and Spring Farm. Further south, the greenfield precincts
within the GMGA are also poised to contribute strong numbers of new dwellings, albeit delivery likely to occur over
the longer-term.
Significantly, precincts within the SWGA and surrounds not as yet released for development will further add to
the residential pipeline over time. Precincts such as Bringelly, Catherine Field, Kemps Creek, Rossmore (and
the Study Area) could contribute circa 52,000 additional dwellings by 2035.
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3.2.4 Development Site Sales
A large number of number of development site sales across the established precincts of Austral, Edmondson Park
and Leppington have been observed over the course of 2017 with a limited number of sales in nearby precincts
yet to be released for precinct planning such as Bringelly and Catherine Field.
Prices paid for development site sales within Austral and Edmondson Park have risen commensurate with end sale
values of lots and H&L packages; recent sales equating to $1.6m/ha up to $3.5m/ha depending on zoning and
location. For example, the recent sales of 185 Fourteenth Avenue, Austral (2.02ha) and 90 Croatia Avenue,
Edmondson Park (2.04ha) sold in mid-2017 for $7m and $4.4m, respectively.
Leppington is achieving slightly lower sales prices, ranging from $1.5m/ha to $3m/ha. For instance, 66 Rickard
Road (2.01ha) and 48 Dickson Road (3.08ha) sold in mid-2017 for $4.25m and $9.3m, respectively. Lower prices
are expectedly observed within precincts yet to be released for precinct planning; Catherine Field and Bringelly are
currently achieving sales prices circa $1m/ha to $1.7m/ha.
Overall, prices paid for development sites across the SWGA have been observed to have risen circa 15% to 30%
over the 2015-2017 period.
3.2.5 Summary of Findings
With sustained buyer interest observed across the SWGA, capacity of households to bear continued price growth
is a growing issue. As evidenced from the housing affordability analysis in Chapter 2, the affordability threshold
within the SWGA and Liverpool and Campbelltown LGAs (where a large component of demand is currently derived
from), is already strained with current asking prices for many land and H&L packages approaching or exceeding
households’ affordability thresholds.
Figure 3.1 depicts the trajectory of price growth over 2007-2016 in the SWGA and LGAs that the GA straddles.
Aggregated sale and rental price growth in the broader LGAs (Camden, Campbelltown and Wollondilly) has been
robust, with sale price growth particularly strong in the last five years in an environment of low interest rates.
Notably, the rate of land price growth in the South West has been double digit in recent years, though the price
data is reported on a rate per square metre and is likely due to an increasingly prevalence of smaller format housing.
Figure 3.1: Aggregate Price Growth, Broader LGAs and SWGA
Source: HNSW (2017a), HNSW (2017b), UDIA (2017)
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gro
wth
Rate
s (%
)
Rental Price Growth (LGAs) Sale Price Growth (LGAs)
Land Price ($/sqm) Growth (SWPGA)
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Price rises are conceivably approaching a tipping point where purchasers are evaluating location options - whether
they compromise on size and select smaller format accommodation close to established centres (e.g. Liverpool)
or if they compromise on location and purchase house and land in the South West that might be further away from
existing retail and urban amenity. The growing shift towards higher density residential product is only set to
strengthen as a result.
Market demand and interest for residential blocks and dwellings are without exception observed to be strong across
projects that have been released for sale. Informal discussions with marketing agents consistently identify that
small lots (250sqm-350sqm) are the most marketable due to affordable price points, with a growing acceptability
of townhouse type product circa 225sqm.
With circa 13,000 dwellings observed in the SWGA pipeline (primarily within Leppington), the development pipeline
appears strong. Neighbouring precincts north of Bringelly Road and further south in the GMGA are also poised to
deliver significant volumes of new dwellings over the short and long term.
3.3 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING DEMAND
Market preferences and attitudes are different compared to 10 years ago when the first structure planning for the
South West Growth Centre was completed. Households today (families, couples and lone persons alike) value
lifestyle and convenience. These values pervade all elements of choice including housing choice. While a large
backyard may still be sought after by some, it is generally a reducing requirement driven by cost and attitudes
towards convenience.
The gradual shift towards smaller lot and dwelling sizes is therefore a function of both affordability issues and
lifestyle choices. That said, the former has the greatest level of impact on housing demand within the SWGA as
evidenced from market observations.
Lots
An analysis of market activity reveals a significantly price sensitive market, households generally purchase
according to their financial capacity often in compromise of spatial and size requirements. Our enquiries note the
following market observations:
• Small lots (<350sqm)
Small lots are subject to intense market competition amongst price sensitive buyers, predominantly the FHB
cohort. Pricing for small lots varies depending on location and quality of the estate, however most typically fall
within the $340,000-$400,000 range. This a crucial consideration for this market who typically seek to keep
total dwelling costs (including construction) below $700,000.
The proportion of small lots within the major estates is larger in newer subdivisions as developers seek to
respond to a shift in market preference. For example, the 166-lot subdivision “Aspect” at 221 Fifth Avenue,
Austral has 65% of lots ranging from 225sqm to 300sqm.
• Medium lots (350sqm-450sqm)
Medium sized lots comprise the majority of lots within the major land estates across the SWGA. These lots are
typically priced between $420,000 and $450,000, however several prominent estates have achieved sales
from $460,000 to $490,000. After building construction and other costs, total cost of a dwelling approaches
$800,000 or more. These lots are nevertheless still a popular product with buyers, particularly the upgrader
market who may be less price sensitive than the FHB market.
• Large lots (>500sqm)
Large sized lots are not heavily featured in the major estates across the SWGA and even less so in more
recent subdivisions. These lots typically transact for >$700,000 and are primarily sought by the investor market
seeking to further subdivide or construct dual occupancy dwellings. Whilst less marked than smaller sized lots,
demand remains steady as observed from strong take-up of larger sized lots at Oran Park Town. This trend is
further observed to the south in the GMGA, where approximately 70% of buyers at the Macarthur Heights
estate have been investors targeting lots circa 500sqm-550sqm.
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Coinciding with strong market interest for smaller sized lots, market trends in the SWGA are underpinned by
growing popularity of medium-density product (<300sqm) and, to a degree, higher-density product (flats and
apartments).
Townhouses and Villas
Whilst developers have yet to progress significant volumes of medium-density product (townhouses, villas, semi-
detached housing) within new estates across the SWGA, many estates have been observed to be ‘testing the
waters’ with small releases of such product, e.g. Arcadian Hills, Oran Park Town. Market response to such product
has been strong, particularly given these completed product can be brought to market circa $600,000-$700,000.
Informal enquiries indicate that developers will be further increasing such products over the coming 6-12 months
with lots circa 225sqm to 300sqm.
Apartments
Multi-unit living is perceived to be associated with a low maintenance and convenience lifestyle that is accessible
to a range of amenity and entertainment options. Acknowledging that many people are drawn to multi-unit living for
these lifestyle reasons, equally important are the issues of choice and affordability.
The markets with existing train stations (Edmondson Park and Leppington) are the sole precincts observed to be
accommodating new apartment development. The development of the Leppington town centre is a major driver
behind the quantum of high-density proposed therein; with circa 40% of new dwellings proposed being units and
apartments.
Market acceptance to such product within the SWGA remains relatively untested given only three developments
have been brought to market to date. Market response to these projects has been directly related to their proximity
to train stations with sites such as 5 Rynan Avenue which is 2km from the Edmondson train station suffering from
longer marketing periods.
Market resistance is particularly observed to larger three bedroom product given their respective price points are
comparable to small lots or completed medium-density product which is more readily accepted by the market.
Despite this, as the SWGA continues to mature and amenity increases the market for higher density product will
undoubtedly expand. This will be exacerbated if land prices continue to increase while incomes growth remain soft.
Progress and volume of development activity is underpinned by the ability to assemble sites at competitive prices.
The availability of services infrastructure and development capability of land influence landowner and price
expectations.
A myriad of factors influences the supply of housing. These and the market signals observed in this section will be
further examined in the next chapter.
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4. PROJECTED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CAPACITY
Land use planning is a complex matter, long term in nature and ultimately more influenced by structural change
rather than market/cyclical factors. As a consequence, planning for immediate needs is categorically less complex
than trying to predict what those needs might be in the future. This chapter considers future expected housing
demand and the corresponding capacity of the Study Area to accommodate that demand.
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Projections of housing demand for the Study Area as a whole as well as each Growth Area were developed using
the methodology outlined in Appendix C. We highlight these are developed using DPE’s population projections
data (2016 release) as a base.
In brief, three models were used in developing these projections.
• A ‘ratio model’, which takes official projections from DPE (2016) for metropolitan Sydney and applies a shock
to the official projections that results in population and households being transferred to the GAs (greenfield
areas) from the rest of metropolitan Sydney.
• An ‘equation model’, which uses historic econometric relationships for metropolitan Sydney local government
areas between changes in dwelling stock and factors such as relative prices, distance friction (to the CBD),
changes in households, and employment patterns. These relationships are then applied to the GAs to project
dwelling demand, using results from the ratio model.
• A ‘distribution model’, which distributes GA dwelling demand projections from the equation model to each of
the Growth Areas using qualitative weighted distribution criteria regarding the anticipated ‘attractiveness’ of
each centre relative to each other. The following Growth Areas are modelled:
o The former South West Growth Centre (SWGC), which is a combination of the Western Sydney Growth
Area and South West Growth Area. These two areas were modelled in combination to be consistent with
previous modelling undertaken.
o The North West Growth Area (NWGA).
o The Greater Macarthur Growth Area (GMGA).
A previous version of the metropolitan plan for Sydney (Metropolitan Plan for Sydney 2036 released in 2010)
articulated an aspirational target split of new dwellings (i.e. 70% to be in existing suburbs and 30% in Greenfield
areas). It was further espoused that 85% of new Greenfield dwellings should be in the “Growth Centres”, or Growth
Areas as referred to in this Study. This would imply an allocation of around 25% (30% x 85%) of growth in dwellings
in Metropolitan Sydney is targeted to be in the Growth Areas. Subsequent versions and indeed the recent draft
Greater Sydney Region Plan do not contain reference to any target split of new dwellings.
The earlier Housing Market Needs Analysis for the South West Growth Area (AEC, 2015) examined two demand
scenarios, where demand in the GAs was premised on a 10% and 20% capture of new housing demand.
In light of significant government investment into the Western Sydney Airport, Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis and
anticipated rise of the Western City as well as demonstrated strong and robust demand for housing in the region,
this Study examines demand scenarios where 20% and 30% of new demand is captured by the GAs.
Scenarios Examined
Two demand scenarios were modelled within the ratio model, with the results then run through the equation model
and distribution model to project aggregate dwelling demand by each Growth Areas:
• Scenario 1: is premised on there being a 20% capture of new housing demand and consequent residential
activity of metropolitan Sydney by the GAs. This is termed a ‘Lower Growth Scenario’.
• Scenario 2: assumes a 30% capture of new housing demand and consequent residential activity of
metropolitan Sydney by the GAs. This is termed a ‘Higher Growth Scenario’.
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A detailed summary of the results of these three scenarios for the GAs (in aggregate) is provided in Appendix C.
Table 4.1. Projections of Dwelling Demand by Scenario for the GAs in Aggregate
Scenario 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Scenario 1 (20%) 33,243 64,485 95,804 128,378 162,571 129,328
Scenario 2 (30%) 33,243 79,107 124,561 171,656 220,993 187,750
Source: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
4.2 DWELLING DEMAND PROJECTIONS
4.2.1 Scenario 1 (Lower Growth Scenario)
Population
The former SWGC’s population is projected to grow from 27,673 to 190,768 residents between 2016 and 2036 in
the lower growth scenario, an increase of 163,095 people (average annual growth of 10.1%).
Table 4.2. Projections of Population by Growth Area, Scenario 1
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Former SWGC 27,673 64,876 103,889 146,060 190,768 163,095
NWGA 41,195 83,050 121,249 158,836 195,132 153,937
GMGA 31,497 45,918 62,759 79,677 98,483 66,986
Source: AEC, ABS (2017a and 2017b), DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Dwellings
Dwelling projections for the Growth Areas for the lower growth scenario (20%) are summarised in Table 4.3. The
former SWGC is projected to increase from 9,131 dwellings in 2016 to 64,803 dwellings in 2036, an increase of
55,672 dwellings over the 20 year period (average annual rate of 10.3%).
Table 4.3. Projections of Dwelling Demand by Growth Area, Scenario 1
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Former SWGC 9,131 21,638 34,893 49,332 64,803 55,672
NWGA 13,465 27,135 39,309 51,530 63,637 50,172
GMGA 10,647 15,712 21,603 27,517 34,131 23,484
Source: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Household Occupancy Rates
By implication, the projections suggest the following household occupancy rates.
Table 4.4. Implied Household Occupancy Rates, Scenario 1
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Former SWGC 3.03 3.00 2.98 2.96 2.94
NWGA 3.06 3.06 3.08 3.08 3.07
GMGA 2.96 2.92 2.91 2.90 2.89
Source: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Implied household occupancy rates are ‘aggregate’ in nature, i.e. reflecting households who occupy all forms of
dwellings.
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4.2.2 Scenario 2 (Higher Growth Scenario)
Population
The former SWGC’s population is projected to grow from 27,673 to 264,057 residents between 2016 and 2036 in
the higher growth scenario, an increase of 237,057 people (average annual growth of 12.0%).
Table 4.5. Projections of Population by Growth Area, Scenario 2
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Former SWGC 27,673 82,426 139,129 200,160 264,730 237,057
NWGA 41,195 102,631 157,931 212,285 264,744 223,549
GMGA 31,497 52,846 77,370 101,873 129,054 97,557
Source: AEC, ABS (2017a and 2017b), DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Dwellings
Dwelling projections for the Growth Areas for the higher growth scenario (30%) are summarised in Table 4.6. The
former SWGC is projected to increase from 9,131 dwellings in 2016 to 89,928 dwellings in 2036, an increase of
80,797 dwellings over the 20 year period (average annual rate of 12.1%).
Table 4.6. Projections of Dwelling Demand by Growth Area, Scenario 2
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Change (2016 to 2036)
Former SWGC 9,131 27,492 46,728 67,604 89,928 80,797
NWGA 13,465 33,533 51,201 68,869 86,339 72,874
GMGA 10,647 18,083 26,632 35,183 44,727 34,079
Source: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Household Occupancy Rates
By implication, the projections suggest the following household occupancy rates.
Table 4.7. Implied Household Occupancy Rates, Scenario 2
Growth Area 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Former SWGC 3.03 3.00 2.98 2.96 2.94
NWGA 3.06 3.06 3.08 3.08 3.07
GMGA 2.96 2.92 2.91 2.90 2.89
Source: AEC, DPE (2014), DPE (2016).
Implied household occupancy rates are ‘aggregate’ in nature, i.e. reflecting households who occupy all forms of
dwellings.
4.3 MARKET DEMAND AND POTENTIAL SUPPLY CAPACITY
This section examines how market demand influences housing supply and the distribution of dwellings within the
Study Area.
Chapter 3 identified strong demand for dwellings in the broader SWGA which is considered an appropriate proxy
for likely demand in LCM and the Context Area. Affordability issues in conjunction with lifestyle reasons is seeing
a continuing trend towards owner occupier purchasers favouring smaller, denser product.
Looking forward, while smaller and denser residential product is expected to increase, detached houses are still
expected to form the majority of dwelling type, followed by row housing/semi-detached/townhouses and then by
units/apartments. The ability of higher-density product to attract demand within LCM will be largely tied to planned
infrastructure and amenity improvements within the area.
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Planning (Target) Densities
‘Target density’ controls are generally used in neighbouring precincts within the former SWGC including
Edmondson Park (north), Austral & Leppington North, East Leppington and Catherine Fields (part) where average
densities range from 10dw/ha to 28dw/ha.
The following density targets are applied to residential zones in each precinct.
• Low density - 12.5dw/ha to 20dw/ha.
• Medium density - 20dw/ha to 40dw/ha.
• High density - 40dw/ha.
Indicative lot sizes envisaged by density provisions in the Growth Centres Development Code are classified below:
• Townhouses, semi-detached and detached small dwellings (up to 350sqm).
• Detached medium dwellings (350sqm-450sqm).
• Detached large dwellings (450sqm).
Development at higher densities than the target density controls is permitted however the maximum number of
dwellings is controlled by stipulated minimum lot sizes in each precinct. Higher density development is not
anticipated to occur unless access to transport, employment and other services are available.
Density targets for the Study Area have not yet been developed.
Market Densities
Analysis of market activity suggests that residential typologies are becoming increasingly focused on smaller lot
sizes, as market acceptance of small lot housing and denser product is growing.
Having consideration to what appears to be a structural shift in the market, Table 4.8 and Table 4.9 outline potential
market densities for the Study Area. Detached product is still expected to be the dominant typology, a function of
general market expectations.
The quantum of units that could be provided at LCM would ultimately depend on the respective capacity of retail
centre/s to accommodate multi-unit housing. Proximity to public transport and scale of retail facilities are key
determinants of the viability of higher density product.
Table 4.8: Product Typology and Mix (Lower Density and Higher Density Scenario)
Study Area Dwelling Type (%) Detached Dwellings (%)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units <350sqm 350-450sqm >450sqm
Overall
Context Area (excluding LCM) 75%-80% 15%-20% 0%-5% 20%-30% 60%-70% 10%
LCM 70%-75% 20%-25% 5%-10% 30%-35% 55% 10%-15%
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 80% 20% 0% 20% 70% 10%
LCM 70% 25% 5% 30% 55% 15%
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 75% 20% 5% 30% 60% 10%
LCM 70% 20% 10% 35% 55% 10%
Source: AEC, DPE
The residential mixes presented in Table 4.8 are calculated to equate to average dwelling densities for LCM and
the Context Area.
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The following average densities are assumed:
• Detached dwellings:
o 22.5 dwellings per hectare (average 300sqm block).
o 16.9 dwellings per hectare (average 400sqm block).
o 12.3 dwellings per hectare (average 550sqm block).
• Medium density dwellings: 33.8 dwellings per hectare (average 200sqm block).
• Flats/units: 67.5 dwellings per hectare (average 100sqm site area per unit).
The average densities are then applied to the respective developable areas to calculate the total dwelling potential
assuming a build-out of the areas, i.e. 100% of developable land is developed.
Table 4.9: Market Densities to Build-out
Study Area Net Dev. Area
Average Density (dw/ha)
Potential Dwellings
Average Density (dw/ha)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 517.0ha 20.8 10,744 17.5 33.8 67.5
LCM 265.8ha 24.3 6,465 17.9 33.8 67.5
Total 782.8ha 22.0 17,209
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 517.0ha 23.7 12,254 18.1 33.8 67.5
LCM 265.8ha 26.4 7,009 18.4 33.8 67.5
Total 782.8ha 24.6 19,263
Source: AEC, DPE
By applying lower average densities (lower density scenario), the theoretical capacity of Context Area (excluding
LCM) is 10,744 dwellings whilst LCM could conceivably accommodate 6,465 dwellings. In total, the entire Study
Area could accommodate a potential total of 17,209 dwellings under the Lower Density Scenario.
By applying the higher average densities assumed in the Higher Density Scenario, the theoretical capacity of
Context Area increases to 12,254 dwellings whilst LCM could potentially accommodate 7,009 dwellings.
Accordingly, the entirety of the Study Area could conceivably accommodate 19,263 dwellings under the Higher
Density Scenario.
If the Context Area (and LCM) had the environmental capacity to accommodate 17,500 to 20,000 additional
dwellings to 2036, that would represent a capture of 22%-24% of projected housing demand in the High Growth
Scenario (refer to section 4.2.2).
While the Context Area (and LCM) are discrete areas with development capacity in and of themselves, their overall
development role will be influenced by development capacity elsewhere in the GA.
The next section considers the various factors which influence the supply of housing within the SWGA.
4.4 FACTORS AFFECTING HOUSING SUPPLY
There are a considerable number of factors affecting the deliverability of new/additional housing and rarely is a
single factor the only cause for low housing supply activity. It is important to understand that urban land is subject
to pressures for development which directly affect their land values and feasibility of developing into higher and
better uses.
Landowner expectations are often directly linked to planning controls, their value expectations moving upwards in
tandem with rezoning or upzoning of areas.
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Land Value and Site Assembly
In order to economically acquire and develop land a proposed use must translate into a higher value than the
existing use including any improvements on the land (or ‘As Is’ value). Development will only occur where a
proposed use is valuable enough to displace an existing use. While existing improvements may be dated and due
for replacement, they may still be providing a good level of functional utility and thereby be relatively valuable.
The acquisition of land can be a high-risk and high-resource activity for developers, particularly where numerous
parcels of land have to be amalgamated prior to development. Further exacerbating the issue of site fragmentation
is that in many Greenfield areas, while land may be appropriately zoned for urban development, an ‘agenda of
development’ may not necessarily align with that of landowners who have other objectives for their landholdings.
There is notable sales activity of development sites in Austral and Edmondson Park and prices paid are among the
highest in the former SWGC, in the order of $3m/ha-$3.5m/ha of site area. In comparison, prices paid for sites in
Leppington are slightly lower ($1.5m/ha-$3m/ha) whilst precincts in Catherine Fields have transacted for the lowest
sale prices in recent times ($1m/ha-$1.7m/ha). This is conceivably reflective of development-ready status of some
precincts over others.
Landowner expectations are often directly linked to planning controls and regardless of financial feasibility, value
expectations moving upwards with rezoning or upzoning of areas to accommodate higher densities. This is
distinctly observed in the Edmondson Park precinct where following the immediate availability of services
infrastructure, landowner expectations have swiftly adjusted.
Underlying and Effective Demand
Residential markets are diverse. Market acceptance for higher density product is good within capital cities (and
inner suburbs in those cities), hence end sale prices of the completed product justify the higher cost of construction.
In many cases effective demand (i.e. the capacity and willingness of households to pay), rather than underlying
demand, is relevant for development feasibility. The ability of households to pay for housing underpins the type
and nature of development the market can respond with.
An analysis of household income bands provides insight into the financial ability of households in SWGA to pay for
housing (cost of purchase or rent).
• Approximately 70% of households in the SWGA cannot afford a new dwelling price of $675,000 without falling
into mortgage stress1.
• At the average household income ($2,154/week), a household can only afford to purchase a dwelling circa
$540,000-$675,000.
This analysis is important as an understanding of the extent and nature of market capacity/ability to pay for new
housing is important as this underpins the viability/marketability of new housing product.
Development Costs
The cost of construction varies across residential typologies and can increase substantially for example, as
buildings become taller. Service requirements will dictate that more lifts will be required so that vertical
transportation times are not compromised.
Equally important is the issue of choice. If low density residential product in the area surrounding is available at
relatively cheap prices, underlying demand for higher density product at similar prices will arguably be limited.
In deciding the amount of capital to apply to a site, i.e. how intensely the site should be developed, developer
capital will be applied to the point where incremental revenue is equal to incremental cost. A two storey dwelling
has the potential to increase construction cost by $50,000 and will therefore only be pursued if there is market
capacity and willingness to pay.
1 It is generally accepted that housing cost (rent or mortgage cost) should not exceed 30% of a household’s gross income. This measure varies
depending on the scale of the household’s income, e.g. it could be higher for households on higher incomes
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Funding and Availability of Infrastructure
In Greenfield locations, the availability of trunk and lead-in infrastructure can be a major impediment to development
proceeding. While there is nothing precluding a prospective developer from assuming the provision of necessary
infrastructure to facilitate development of a site, the uncertainty and heavy capital cost associated with
infrastructure provision not only contributes to a perception of increased risk, it is beyond the financial capacity of
many developers.
In precincts where large landholdings are in the control of major developers, the provision of trunk and lead-in
infrastructure is in many cases incorporated as part of development, and further to the Precinct Acceleration
Protocol (PAP) provisions. This can assist to accelerate delivery where there would otherwise have been a lag in
infrastructure provision.
In precincts where lot and ownership patterns are fragmented, the ability of developers to assemble a large
development block is limited, hence there is low likelihood of developer-led infrastructure provision, e.g. Austral.
Planning and Development Controls
Planning and development controls have the ability to affect feasibility and housing supply through changes in land
use zoning and densities but also through costs associated with design requirements and securing planning
approvals (including developer contributions). Codes for parking, open space, sustainability, etc. all have the ability
to influence the cost of development.
The implementation of the Housing Diversity package has offered some flexibility in the types of housing that are
provided in the SWGA. While there is still a compliance-based cost to ensuring built form accords with development
controls, financial feasibility is offset by swifter take-up by the market on release.
In comparison with planning densities (target densities), market demand for higher density product is strong. Even
though current planning densities are meant as ‘minimums’, i.e. more dwellings can be supported, infrastructure
services can be an impediment as agencies are understood to have planned for dwelling numbers on the basis
they are ‘target densities’ rather than minimum densities.
4.5 IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING SUPPLY
Residential Densities
From market intelligence gathered, many developers are understood to be increasingly seeking to develop sites
within the SWGA to a denser form than was envisaged by density controls in the Growth Centres SEPP, in some
cases to double or treble the site’s original planning capacity. Our market analysis suggests that this is due to a
combination of factors:
• Housing affordability and choice
o Affordability where many households can only afford $650,000-$700,000.
o Preference shift to low maintenance housing options.
• Development feasibility
The high cost of land and with market expectations of development sites at their current levels, development
feasibility can be delicate. The offer of a diverse and viable product not only ensures market appeal it also
helps developers achieve a commercial return in a competitive environment of high land cost.
Services Capacity and Site Amalgamation
Development activity is occurring at distinct and different paces in the former SWGC. It is no surprise that precincts
like Edmondson Park, Leppington and Oran Park where large landholdings are under control of several major
developers and with immediate services capacity, are witnessing a hive of development activity.
Development sites in the region are observed to be sold as englobo sites without development approval. The
majority of these sites have historically been used for agricultural uses and are transitioning to urban uses.
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A major factor constraining the delivery of housing is the process of site assembly. Fragmented ownership
patterns and unrealistic vendor expectations can make the acquisition of land a high-risk and high-resource
activity for developers, particularly where numerous parcels of land have to be amalgamated prior to
development and those sites that are improved with existing buildings.
Limited availability of services infrastructure additionally influences the price of land where services are available.
As an example, owing to immediate availability of services infrastructure throughout the precinct, prices for
development sites in Edmondson Park are observed to be the highest paid in the SWGA (in excess of $3.5m/ha
in some instances).
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5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The growth outlook for the Study Area is strong, in line with the broader SWGA. The commitment to and planning
for the Western Sydney Airport, potential South West Rail extension and numerous motorway and road network
upgrades have cumulatively positioned the broader South West region on a new trajectory of growth aligning with
strategic planning objectives for the future Western City.
The growth of suburbs such as Edmondson Park, Leppington, Oran Park and Gregory Hills over the course of
2015-2017 has positioned the SWGA as a major residential precinct within metropolitan Sydney. The delivery of
additional retail facilities and employment areas is expected to further strengthen residential demand in precincts
such as the Study Area upon release to market.
5.1 TRENDS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS
The Study Area is subject to a variety of demographic and market factors which cumulatively influence the demand
and supply of residential product.
Housing Affordability
Household affordability is a continuing challenge with many households compromising on size and spatial
requirements to make purchases within their financial capacity. Whilst the average amount of median income spent
on housing is just below the 30% affordability threshold (a positive sign), significant price growth indicates that
these new residents would now struggle to purchase property within the area at current price points. Median
household incomes within the SWGA would allow for purchases of circa $540,000-$675,000. Market observations
indicate there is limited opportunity for securing housing at the bottom end of that scale.
More significantly, housing affordability threshold analysis of the primary feeder LGAs of Liverpool and
Campbelltown indicate that housing affordability thresholds of residents therein are even lower, indicating that the
main pool of buyers purchasing new residential product within the SWGA are already financially constrained by
existing price points. Unsurprisingly, this suggests there is limited capacity for further price growth in the SWGA.
The implementation of the Housing Diversity Package in 2014 has seen developers respond to ‘meet the market’
by providing a broader range of product which includes small lot housing and unit/apartments. The Housing
Diversity package has not only allowed developers to respond to affordability pressures faced by households, it
has eased commercial and feasibility pressures resulting from difficulties in site amalgamation and high site cost.
Whilst recent initiatives such as the stamp duty exemption for FHBs has supported buyer capacity for this segment
of the market, it remains to be seen if this will continue as the market adjusts quoting prices accordingly.
The increasing issue of housing affordability has undoubtedly created a shift in market preference and development
response - as price constrained buyers opt for small lot sizes or medium density product and developers adjusting
their product to meet the market.
Lifestyle Choices and Amenity Requirements
Whilst the transition to higher density living has been inevitable amid rising house prices and falling affordability,
market observations suggest that lifestyle preferences for low maintenance property with high amenity and a
shrinking average family size have equally contributed to the rising popularity of higher density product.
Notwithstanding a growing acceptance of apartment living, the ability of the SWGA and Study Area to capitalise on
higher density product (units and apartments) will be directly influenced by the amenity offer and transport
infrastructure delivered within the area.
Employment Opportunities
The South West Rail Extension has greatly improved accessibility to major employment markets in addition to
those employment opportunities located in the surrounding major centres (Liverpool, Campbelltown, Fairfield). New
employment precincts such as Gregory Hills are augmenting the local employment offer, with the progression of
major centres including Leppington and Oran Park offering future potential employment prospects.
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The Western Sydney Airport will undoubtedly be the major catalyst for employment growth within the South West
region over the coming decades from the mid-2020’s. The development of the Western City as envisaged in the
District Plan will serve as a major employment hub within metropolitan Sydney, servicing a much wider employee
catchment than just South West Sydney. Accordingly, the profile of the SWGA as a residential precinct that
facilitates a ’30-minute city’ will undoubtedly rise commensurate with the establishment of WSA.
5.2 DEMAND FOR HOUSING IN STUDY AREA
Based on research and analysis of market activity and household preference in the South West region, a number
of recommendations are made for the Context Area and the Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct.
Profile of Market Demand
Housing affordability and level of infrastructure/amenity provision will continue to influence market preference and
product acceptability in the region. Price rises are conceivably approaching a tipping point where purchasers are
evaluating their location options - whether they compromise on size and select smaller format accommodation
close to established centres (e.g. Liverpool) or if they compromise on location and purchase house and land in the
South West that might be further away from existing retail and urban amenity.
Whilst the newer estates within the SWGA may be of better quality than older stock within established residential
areas around the Liverpool and Campbelltown CBDs, the similar (and in some cases higher) price points sought
within the SWGA will conceivably see more prospective purchasers weigh up options closer to existing retail
amenity and employment opportunities in the short term.
The principle of substitution refers to the number of reasonable alternative markets a purchaser can consider. For
example, prospective purchasers seeking accommodation in Oran Park may also consider Arcadian Hills in Cobbity
given their similar location and price points. However, Edmondson Park may not be considered a direct substitute
given the existing train station and higher price points. Price points generally dictate the substitutability of residential
property markets.
Despite a general fall in investor activity across metropolitan Sydney, investors are notably active in estates where
larger blocks are available. This cohort typically seeks opportunities for dual occupancy and secondary dwellings.
The affordability threshold analysis indicates a greater tolerance of household incomes to rental prices.
Household Occupancy Rates
Household occupancy rates (on an overall/aggregate basis) are observed to have been rising over the 2006-2016
period. Table 2.12 indicates that household occupancy in LGAs that incorporate large swathes land for lower
density formats increasing more markedly.
On an overall basis, household occupancy rates in the LGAs of Camden, Liverpool, Campbelltown and Wollondilly
ranged from 2.99 to 3.25 persons per dwelling in 2016.
Council has advised that interpretation of 2016 census data by DPE’s demography unit indicates the following
household occupancy rates are appropriate:
• Low-low density single dwellings - 3.6 persons
• Low density single dwellings - 3.4 persons.
• Semi-detached, row housing - 2.9 persons.
• Flats, units, apartments - 2.3 persons.
These rates are applied to housing typology and mix in the next section and compared to the overall/aggregate
rates analysed in Table 2.12.
Housing Typology and Mix
It is assumed LCM is located generally closer to the future Marylands train station and retail centre, accordingly
playing a role in accommodating a greater proportion of smaller format housing (higher density product such as
units and apartments) compared to the broader Context Area.
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Detached product is still expected to be the dominant typology, a function of general market expectations. The
following typology mix could potentially be considered in LCM and the Context Area. Table 5.1 recommends
potential dwelling mixes in Lower and Higher density scenarios.
Table 5.1: Product Typology and Mix (Lower Density and Higher Density Scenario)
Study Area Dwelling Type (%) Detached Dwellings (%)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units <350sqm 350-450sqm >450sqm
Overall
Context Area (excluding LCM)
75%-80% 15%-20% 0%-5% 20%-30% 60%-70% 10%
LCM 70%-75% 20%-25% 5%-10% 30%-35% 55% 10%-15%
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM)
80% 20% 0% 20% 70% 10%
LCM 70% 25% 5% 30% 55% 15%
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM)
75% 20% 5% 30% 60% 10%
LCM 70% 20% 10% 35% 55% 10%
Source: AEC, DPE
The quantum of units that could be provided on the Site would ultimately depend on the respective capacity of retail
centre/s to accommodate multi-unit housing in buildings of 2-4 storeys and 6-8 storeys. Proximity to public transport
and scale of retail facilities are key determinants of the viability of higher density product.
Table 5.2 assigns weighted average densities by dwelling type, mix and lot size result in the Lower and Higher
density scenarios (to calculate average densities in LCM and the Context Area
Table 5.2: Market Densities to Build-Out (Lower Density and Higher Density Scenario)
Study Area Net Dev. Area
Average Density (dw/ha)
Potential Dwellings
Average Density (dw/ha)
Detached Med Density Flats/Units
Lower Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 517.0ha 20.8 10,744 17.5 33.8 67.5
LCM 265.8ha 24.3 6,465 17.9 33.8 67.5
Total 782.8ha 22.0 17,209
Higher Density Scenario
Context Area (excluding LCM) 517.0ha 23.7 12,254 18.1 33.8 67.5
LCM 265.8ha 26.4 7,009 18.4 33.8 67.5
Total 782.8ha 24.6 19,263
Source: AEC, DPE
If LCM (and the Context Area) had the capacity to accommodate 17,500 to 20,000 additional dwellings to 2036,
that would represent a capture of 22%-24% of projected housing demand in the Higher Growth Scenario.
Application of household occupancy rates to the market densities result in estimated population at build-out.
• Low-low density single dwellings - 3.6 persons2
• Low density single dwellings - 3.4 persons2.
• Semi-detached, row housing - 2.9 persons.
• Flats, units, apartments - 2.3 persons.
2 The proportion of low-low density dwellings is minimal in the assumed market densities, hence occupancy rates of low density
single dwellings are applied
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Table 5.3: LCM - Dwellings and Population (Lower Density and Higher Density Scenario)
Study Area % Site Area
Net Dev. Area
Average Density (dw/ha)
Potential Dwellings
Household Occupancy
Population
Lower Density Scenario
Detached Dwellings 70% 186.1ha 17.9 3,325 3.4 11,306
Medium Density 25% 66.5ha 33.8 2,243 2.9 6,504
Flats/Units 5% 13.3ha 67.5 897 2.3 2,063
Total 100% 265.8ha 22.0 6,465 3.1 19,874
Higher Density Scenario
Detached Dwellings 70% 186.1ha 18.4 3,421 3.4 11,630
Medium Density 20% 53.2ha 33.8 1,794 2.9 5,203
Flats/Units 10% 26.6ha 67.5 1,794 2.3 4,127
Total 100% 265.8ha 24.6 7,009 3.0 20,960
Source: AEC, DPE
Application of household occupancy rates (in line with DPE’s demography unit’s interpretation of the 2016 census
data) result in 19,874 persons and 20,960 persons in the Lower Density and Higher Density scenarios respectively.
On an overall/aggregate basis, the estimated population in each scenario equates to 3.1 persons and 3.0 persons
per dwelling in the Lower Density and Higher Density scenarios respectively. This is consistent with the analysis in
Table 2.12 wherein household occupancy rates ranged from 3.0 to 3.1 persons per dwelling in 2016.
5.3 TIMING AND STAGING
Factors that underpin the likely timing of development in LCM and the Context Area relate directly to provision of
regional and services infrastructure. Market demand is strong and sustained. It is accordingly reasonable to
presume that industry will seek to meet the market and leverage opportunities that are available.
Spatial Distribution
The spatial distribution of dwelling types should have regard to their relative location with respect to proximity to
public transport nodes (present and future) and retail facilities. Lower density product should be located around the
fringe/frame of a precinct. Market acceptability and viability of higher density product in greenfield settings is
underpinned by proximity to public transport and retail amenity.
Given that retail facilities are not incubators but followers of population growth, the retail centre is unlikely to be
established until such time as a critical mass of residents is established. This follows that any higher density
dwelling product will be a longer term proposition.
Take-up Rates
At present, a shortage of serviced land has propelled land and dwelling prices. While an undersupply would
ordinarily result in high take-up rates, prevailing price levels have had a dampening effect on demand. While there
is underlying demand, effective demand (the capacity of the market to pay) is challenged.
Assuming pricing is at an equilibrium level, conventional wisdom would suggest a conservative take-up rate starting
from 150-200 lots per annum to potentially a peak of 300-400 lots per annum per estate. Nevertheless, astute
marketing, upfront delivery of community infrastructure and product branding have been observed to result in
phenomenal take-up exceeding 500 lots per annum in some estates even in the first year.
The direct relationship between affordability (and lifestyle) and smaller lot sizes is well-established, and will likely
persist over the medium-term. The shift towards medium-density and higher-density accommodation is also
growing - townhouses, villas and apartment products have wide market acceptance in the more mature North West
market while precincts such as Edmondson Park and Leppington (within the SW) are poised to deliver a substantial
quantum of higher density product over the next 5-7 years.
Tracking the market response to new medium-density and higher-density product within the SWGA is crucial to
delivering an appropriate typology mix at LCM, as well as timing of release of such product. The success of higher
density product will be dependent on the quality of amenity that can be established.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
38
5.4 ROLE FOR STUDY AREA
Market preferences and attitudes are different compared to 10 years ago when first structure planning for the South
West Growth Centre was completed. Households (families, couples and lone persons alike) value lifestyle and
convenience. These values pervade all elements of choice including housing choice. While a large backyard may
still be sought after by some, it is generally a reducing requirement driven by cost and convenience.
By applying average density bands in Table 5.1, LCM and the Context Area have a combined dwelling capacity of
17,500 to 20,000 dwellings, representing 22%-24% of projected demand in the Higher Growth Scenario to 2036.
Even though the South West GA may have a theoretical dwelling capacity, it is possible not all land will be
developed. Landowner objectives, motivations and personal circumstances may not necessary align with
development imperatives and in precincts where ownership is highly fragmented, development take-up is expected
to be less than the theoretical capacity for dwellings.
Where housing formats and densities are market-supported (per dwelling types and mix in Table 4.8) it is necessary
to ensure there is greater dwelling capacity than is projected to 2036. The establishment of the Western City and
full operation of the Western Sydney Airport is likely to be beyond the projection timeframe and accordingly it is
prudent to ensure land supply is able to respond to housing demand.
Large swathes of land in majority control close to Bringelly Road (envisaged as a future mixed enterprise corridor)
and future Marylands train station are valuable opportunities. The LCM presents an excellent opportunity to meet
housing demand and assist in alleviating pressure on dwelling prices.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
39
REFERENCES
ABS (2017a). TableBuilder Pro. Cat. No. 2073.0, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
ABS (2017b). Census of Population and Housing Time Series Profiles. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.
DIRD (2016). An Airport for Western Sydney. Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development, Canberra.
DPE (2014a). A Plan for Growing Sydney. NSW Department of Planning and Environment, Sydney.
DPE (2014b). Population, Household and Dwelling Projections. NSW Department of Planning and Environment.
DPE (2016). 2016 New South Wales Local Government Area Population, Household and Dwelling Projections.
NSW Department of Planning and Environment.
GSC (2016). Draft South West District Plan. Greater Sydney Commission, Parramatta.
HNSW (2017a). Rents, Trend March 1990 - June 2017, Metropolitan LGAs. Housing NSW, Sydney.
HNSW (2017b). Sales, Trend March 1991 - March 2017, Metropolitan LGAs. Housing NSW, Sydney.
NSW Government (2015). State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Region Growth Centres) 2006. NSW
Legislation.
RMS (2016). Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan 1 July 2015- 30 June 2016 Report Card. Roads and Maritime
Services, Parramatta.
Transport for NSW (2016). Western Sydney Rail Needs Scoping Study Discussion Paper. September 2016.
UDIA (2017). State of the Land, National Land Survey Program. 2017. Urban Development Institute of Australia.
40
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
APPENDIX A: WESTERN SYDNEY INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN MAP
Figure C. 1: Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan Map
Source: RMS
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
41
APPENDIX B: DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE
Table B. 1: Residential Pipeline, SWGC and surrounds
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
Cobbitty 507
605, 625, 635 Cobbitty Rd Lots Construction 107
400B The Northern Rd Lots Construction 79
Arcadian Hills (Stage 2); 5 Charles McIntosh Pky Arcadian Hills (Stage 9 & 10); 421D & E The Northern Rd
Lots Lots
Construction Completed
8 180
421D & E The Northern Rd Lots Development Approval 10
645 Cobbitty Rd Lots Subdivision Application 47
33 Bangor Tce Lots Development Application 76
Leppington/Denham Court 8,081
120 Ingleburn Rd Units Development Application 672
202 Byron Rd Units Development Application 534
1495 Camden Valley Way & 17 Cowpasture Rd Units Early Planning 500
107 Ingleburn Rd Units Development Application 317
76 Rickard Rd Units Development Application 250
31 Camden Valley Way & 128-320 Denham Court Rd Units Units
Development Approval Construction
210 58
28 Ingleburn Rd Units Units Units
Development Application Development Application Development Application
185 178 156
215 Rickard Rd Units Development Application 78
1300 Camden Valley Way Units Early Planning 8
Emerald Hills, 1100-1150 Camden Valley Way Lots Rezoning Approval 1,200
Willowdale Estate 1230 Camden Valley Way 1230 Camden Valley Way 128-320 Denham Court Rd128-320 Denham Court Rd128-320 Denham Court RdLott 999 Willowdale DrLot 2237 Camden Valley WyLot 9 Denham Court245 Jamboree Av128-320 Denham Court Rd128-320 Camden Valley Way128-320 Denham Court RdPrt Lot 999 Willowdale DrPt Lot 999 Willowdale Dr & Pt Lot 7 Camden Valley Wy128-320 Denham Court Rd128-320 Denham Court Rd
Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Houses Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots
Construction Construction Construction Subdivision Approval Subdivision Approval Construction Subdivision Approval Subdivision Approval Construction Construction Construction Construction Construction Construction Subdivision Application Subdivision Application
198 94
415 280 581 140 38
100 41 48
165 202 73 67
342 350
121 Raby Rd Lots Rezoning Application 32
51 St Andrews Rd Lots Construction 215
415, 435-439, 445, 455 Denham Court Rd Lots Construction 88
1450-1486 Camden Valley Way Lots Subdivision Approval 187
404 Fourth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 42
35 Ingleburn Rd Lots Subdivision Application 37
Oran Park 2,344
2-24 Grice St Units Units
Development Approval 33 13
2 Laura St Houses Subdivision Approval 16
223-225 South Cct Lots Houses
Subdivision Application 59 12
Lot 417 Marcus Loane Eay & Central Av Lots Subdivision Approval 10
116 Oran Park Dr Houses Houses
Development Approval Development Approval
9 14
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
42
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
1-13 Mills Ln Houses Development Application 7
3-5 Evans St Houses Contract let 4
Oran Park Town 400K The Northern Rd Lot D The Northern Rd Lot C The Northern Rd & Lot E Oran Park Dr Lot I The Northern Rd Lot K The Northern Rd
Lots Lots Lots Lots Lots
Construction Construction Construction Construction Construction
226 355 73
161 284
62 Oran Park Dr Lots Construction 339
116, 62, 40, Lot K Oran Park Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 169
48 Skaife St Lots Subdivision Approval 115
40 & 116 Oran Park Dr & 677 Camden Valley Way Lots Construction 97
116 & K Oran Park Dr & 677 Camden Valley Way Lots Construction 224
Lots B & C Peter Brock Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 72
58 Oran Park Dr Lots Subdivision Application 52
Gregory Hills 1,814
E Donovan Bvd Lots Construction 105
650A Camden Valley Way & 15 McKenzie Bvd Lots Construction 29
129 Turner Rd Lots Construction 29
A Village Cct Lots Houses
Construction 93 42
A Village Cct Lots Houses
Construction 102 18
D Donovan Bvd Lots Subdivision Approval 345
79 & 85 Turner Rd Lots Construction 53
26 Oaklands Cct Houses Construction 4
7 Water Gum Rd, Kookaburra & Gregory Hills Dr, Kavanagh St
Lots Subdivision Approval 257
133-135 Turner Rd Lots Early Planning 61
33 Village Cct, Kavanagh St & Donovan Bvd Lots Houses
Subdivision Approval 365 101
154 Kavanagh St Houses Contract let 2
103, 111 & 117 Turner Rd Lots Subdivision Application 39
133 Turner Rd, 13 Enterprise St, Jasmine Rd & 1-2 Barrett St
Lots Subdivision Approval 71
93 Turner Rd Lots Subdivision Application 56
135-137 Turner Rd Lots Subdivision Application 34
Outside SWGC
Austral 1,858
120 Tenth Ave Units Development Application 156
230 Sixth Av, 50 & 60-80 Edmondson Av Lots Houses
Development Application 125 137
260 Edmondson Ave Units Development Application 44
30 Sixteenth Ave Lots Building Application 26
50-56 Kelly Rd Lots Construction 138
220 Seventh Ave Lots Subdivision Approval 17
150 Tenth Ave Lots Subdivision Approval 48
80, 90 & 100 Seventeenth Av Lots Subdivision Approval 83
40 Seventeenth Ave Lots Subdivision Approval 22
35-37 Gurners Ave Lots Construction 84
50 Craik Ave Lots Subdivision Approval 23
61-63 Fifth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 25
20-30 Fourteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 44
10 Thirteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 29
31-45 Eighteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 48
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
43
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
40-46 Kelly St Lots Subdivision Application 158
221 Fifth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 166
45 & 55 Fourteenth St & 284 & 300 Fifteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 109
102-110 Ninth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 19
120 Ninth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 22
230-260 Fifth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 12
14-20 Gurner Ave Lots Subdivision Application 50
10-20 Seventeenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 45
60-70 Seventh Ave Lots Subdivision Application 89
60 Eighteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 28
40 Craik Ave Lots Subdivision Application 23
30 Craik Ave Lots Subdivision Application 24
65 Eighteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 32
75, 95 & 115 Eighteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 77
60 Fourteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 23
55 Eighteenth Ave Lots Subdivision Application 29
225 Seventh Ave Lots Subdivision Application 28
Edmondson Park 2,684
Casuarina Waters 5 & 15 Rynan Ave 5 Rynan Ave
Units Units
Development Application Construction
110 82
245 Croatia Ave Units Development Application 105
240 Croatia Ave Units Development Approval 61
Lots 517-518 Okinawa Rd & 2142 Camden Valley Wy Townhouses Development Application 15
Lot 1 Campbelltown Rd & Soldiers Pde Townhouses Development Approval 21
Lots 409-117 Diamond Hill Cct & 1742 Camden Valley Wy Houses Construction 7
2112 Camden Valley Wy Houses Development Application 4
2 Hooper St & 22 Faulkner Wy Houses Development Application 3
2140 Camden Valley Wy Houses Development Application 3
5 Jardine Dr Houses Lots
Subdivision Approval 4 52
2088, 2092 Camden Valley Way & 100 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 140
60, 64 & 70 Dalmatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 135
200-220 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 83
Ardennes Estate 2102, 2116, 2110, 2112 Camden Valley Way 2140 Camden Valley Way 2112 Camden Valley Way Lot 3 Camden Valley Way
Lots Lots Lots Houses
Subdivision Application Subdivision Approval Subdivision Approval Development Approval
80 50 38 12
1892 & 1902 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 73
65-75 Dalmatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 73
1880-1882 Camden Valley Wy & Rynan Av Lots Subdivision Approval 69
2130, 2140 Camden Valley Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 64
15 & 25 Dalmatia Av & 260 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 62
2140 Camden Valley Way Lots Construction 60
250 Croatia Av & 40 Dalmatia Av Lots Construction 59
70-80 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 57
65-75 Rynan Av & Jardine Av Lots Construction 56
2140 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 50
245, 75-85 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 50
1952-1982 Camden Valley Wyy Lots Construction 49
115, 125, 135 & 215 Croatia Av Lots Rezoning Approval 49
122-126 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 47
160 & 170 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 47
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
44
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
105 Jardine St & Buchan Av Lots Subdivision Approval 46
1952-1982 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 44
45-55 Rynan Av Lots Subdivision Approval 44
30 Buchan Av Lots Subdivision Approval 43
60 Rynan & Jardine Av Lots Construction 43
275 Jardine Dr & 15 Buchan Ave Lots Subdivision Application 42
20 Jardine St Lots Subdivision Approval 41
50 Dalmatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 38
51 Dalmatia Ave Lots Subdivision Approval 37
25-45 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 35
75 Jardine St Lots Subdivision Approval 34
155 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 32
100 Croatia Av Lots Early Planning 28
40 Dalmatia Croatia Ave & Zouch Rd Lots Building Application 27
95 Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 27
300 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 25
2000 Camden Valley Wy Lots Building Approval 24
200 (Croatia Av Lots Subdivision Approval 24
35 Dalmatia Av & Somme Av Lots Construction 24
2000 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 23
1742-1752 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 21
240 Croatia Av Lots Construction 21
2000 Camden Valley Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 21
2000 Camden Valley Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 18
190, 200, 210 & 220 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 15
45, 55 Rynan Av & Lot 1002 Colenso Cct Lots Contract let 14
2000 Camden Valley Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 13
180-190 Jardine Dr Lots Subdivision Approval 10
Elderslie 430
48 Higgins Av Lots Development Approval 18
103B Lodges Rd Lots Construction 14
103 Lodges Rd Lots Development Application 11
103C Lodges Rd Lots Contract let 8
103B Lodges Rd Lots Construction 7
23-41 Camden Acres Dr Lots Development Approval 7
19-41 Irvine St & 167 Lodges Rd Lots Construction 36
158A Camden Valley Way Lots Building Approval 30
Kowald St Lots Early Planning 50
65 Hilder St Lots Subdivision Approval 31
58 Hilder St Lots Subdivision Approval 11
133, 143, 155F, 103B, 103C Lodges Rd Lots Construction 65
115, 103 & 103C Lodges Rd Lots Construction 87
47C Hilder St Lots Subdivision Approval 12
103 Lodges Rd, Kingsman Av Lots Construction 43
Gledswood Hills 1,617
810 Camden Valley Wy Lots Construction 211
190 Raby Rd Lots Rezoning Application 260
A The Hermitage Wy Lots Construction 15
Gledswood Hills Estate 184 Raby Rd 184 Raby Rd 19-21 & 810 Lillydale Av
Lots Lots Lots
Contract let Early Planning Subdivision Approval
100 413 65
B Fairbank Dr Lots Construction 18
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
45
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
C The Hermitage Wy Houses Construction 10
B Fairbank Dr Houses Construction 20
880, 900A, 900B Camden Valley Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 135
A, B, C Rymill Cr Lots Subdivision Approval 46
182-188 Raby Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 105
23 Longview Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 29
880 Camden Valley Wy & A The Hermitage Wy Lots Subdivision Approval 23
76 Fairbank Dr Lots Townhouses
Subdivision Approval 36 38
182A, 184A & 188A Raby Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 64
1 Rymill Cr Houses Development Application 29
Kirkham 77
Wivenhoe Village, 229 Macquarie Grove Rd Houses Construction 77
Menangle Park 3,400
Cummins Rd & Menangle Rd Lots Planning Proposal 3,400
Wilton 16,500
Wilton Junction New Town (Picton Rd & Hume Hwy) Lots Planning Proposal 16,500
Mount Annan 168
1-5 Main St Townhouses Early Planning 140
81 Kokoda Av Lots Subdivision Approval 28
Gilead 1,655
Mount Gilead Lots Planning Proposal 1,655
Narellan 564
1 Elyard St Units Rezoning Approval 341
49 Lodges Rd Townhouses Units
Development Approval 39 6
73-83 Lodges Rd Houses Contract let 15
263A Camden Valley Wy Townhouses Construction 32
73-83 Lodges Rd Houses Construction 9
49 & 49A Lodges Rd Townhouses Development Application 122
Spring Farm 2,454
21 Springs Rd Lots Construction 108
57 Springs Rd Lots Construction 177
172, 172A, 185 Richardson Rd & 12B Moreton Bay Av Lots Building Application 113
A Plymouth Bvd Lots Contract let 392
275A, C, D, E, F Richardson Rd Lots Building Application 9
A & C Plymouth Bvd Lots Subdivision Approval 26
279 Richardson & Springs Rds Lots Subdivision Approval 43
B Holland Dr Lots Building Approval 11
277, 277A, 275C & D Richardson Rd Lots Subdivision Application 390
130, 140 Springs & Kale Rd Lots Construction 59
235 Macarthur & 66 & 110B Spring Rds Lots Contract let 123
Springs & Macarthur Rds Lots Construction 287
142 Springs Road Lots Early Planning 57
C & D Nicholson Pde, A, B, D & E Corder Dr & 277, 277A, 275C & 275D Richardson Rd
Lots Subdivision Approval 390
130, 140A, 144 & 156 Springs Rd & 48 Archer Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 63
142 & 156 Springs Rd & 45 & 48 Archer Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 85
142, 156 & 190 Springs Rd & 45 & 48 Archer Rd Lots Subdivision Approval 102
10 Springs Rd Lots Development Approval 19
Camden 447
2 John St Units Development Approval 165
38 Old Hume Hwy Townhouses Construction 5
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
46
Development/Address Type Status Dwellings
27 Elizabeth Macarthur Av Townhouses Construction 6
5-9, 11, 13 Ironbark Av Lots Construction 17
277 Old Hume Hwy Units Building Application 33
125 Lodges Rd Houses Development Application 32
28 Ingleburn Rd Units Development Application 178
26, 28 & 30 Old Hume Hwy Units Development Approval 11
Source: Cordell Connect
47
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
APPENDIX C: HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
OVERVIEW
Planning for society’s present needs is categorically less complex than trying to predict what those needs might be
in the future. The main purpose for dwelling and growth forecasting is to assist decision makers and land use
planners on the future use of land as well as the quantum required to accommodate that growth.
It is important to understand the difference between possible views of the future. The ABS makes the following
distinctions:
• Projection: A projection simply indicates a future value for the population if the set of underlying assumptions
occur. Projections indicate what future values for the population would be if the assumed patterns of change
were to occur. They are not a prediction that the population will change in this manner.
• Forecast: In a forecast, the assumptions represent expectations of actual future events. Forecasts speculate
future values for the population with a certain level of confidence, based on current and past values as an
expectation (prediction) of what will occur.
• Target: A target is a statement of aspiration or a goal, and not necessarily an expectation, a “what-if” or a
possibility.
The process of developing dwelling projections to ascertain the likely nature and quantum of residential growth and
associated demand for dwellings is accepted practice for long term, strategic land use planning. Dwelling
projections seek to understand past growth and change based on ABS demographic and population data, forward
projections are then made on the basis of historical growth trends and distribution of dwellings.
In the case of the Study Area, owing to limited historical dwelling and residential activity, developing dwelling
projections with a level of certainty is challenging. New major items of economic infrastructure (e.g. airport, train
line, regional highway, etc.) all have the potential to be game-changing. Employment and population patterns
are likely to assume completely new growth trajectories resulting from the release and rezoning of Greenfield
areas. Relative house prices, distance (travel times) to employment centres and employment patterns all have
the ability to cumulatively influence where and how many dwellings are demanded.
AEC is therefore of the view that a slightly different approach needs to be taken to estimate the quantum of
dwellings that should be catered for in the future. Rather than looking to the Study Area’s past to project what
might happen in the future, we have examined a series of relationships that influence changes in dwelling stock
in metropolitan Sydney. Overall projected population growth in NSW and metropolitan Sydney (official DPE
projections) is assumed to be unchanged, instead modelling housing demand and distribution patterns in the
Growth Areas based on a projected ‘foundation view’ of change underpinned by a shift in demand from existing
suburbs to Greenfield suburbs (i.e., to those in the Growth Areas). This allows an understanding of the potential
demand for new dwellings that could result in the Study Area following a redistribution of dwelling activity from
the rest of metropolitan Sydney.
The Study combines two models to enable the projection of dwelling need in the Growth Areas (GAs) for the period
from 2016 to 2036. The modelling incorporates official projections of population, households and dwellings for
metropolitan Sydney (DPE, 2016), divided into the GAs and the Rest (i.e. balance) of metropolitan Sydney.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
48
MODELS USED
Two models (the Ratio Model and the Equation Model) are used in developing projections of dwelling demand and
development across the Growth Areas. These projections are then distributed across the Growth Areas in a third
model (the Distribution Model). Each of the models is described in more detail below.
Ratio Model
This is a model of basic ratios, and trends in these ratios, which deconstruct these variables and tie them together
over time. A simulated shock (a nominated percentage) in this model precipitates a redistribution of activity in these
official projection variables within metropolitan Sydney, particularly to the GAs.
The redistribution of population activity is an input into the second model - the equation model.
Equation Model
The equation model is a historical estimation, using a combination of time series and cross sectional regional data
for metropolitan Sydney, of an econometric relationship, modelling changes in dwelling stock determined by
explanatory variables, i.e. relative house prices, distance friction, employment patterns and changes in households.
The projections from the equation model are linked to those of the ratio model, in that the ratio model supplies a
projected ‘foundation’ view of changes in households in the projection area. The default setting of the other
explanatory variables to zero change (i.e. assuming they are constant from 2011) in the projection period tends to
dampen the growth of projected dwelling stock in the equation model. For example, a change in the distance friction
variable would change projected growth of dwelling stock in the projection area (for instance, reduced travel times
following the completion of a train line would increase growth in dwelling stock in the projection area.
The ability to develop scenarios for the future path of the explanatory variables in the equation model, and for this
to be applied to each of the GAs, makes the equation model the primary projection modelling tool.
Distribution Model
Projections of dwelling demand from the equation model are distributed to each GA using qualitative weighted
distribution criteria regarding the anticipated ‘attractiveness’ of each GA relative to each other.
Five criteria were used, with each centre scored based on a value from 1 to 3, with the 3 being the highest score
(i.e., most attractive centre for the corresponding criteria), and the other centres given a relative score for the criteria
compared to the most attractive centre. This was not necessarily a ranking of 1 through 3, as some centres may
score equally on certain criteria.
The five criteria each centre was scored on were:
• Affordability: how affordable the GA is considering likely price points and incomes of those emigrating to the
GA.
• Proximity/ Access to CBD: the relative accessibility of the GA to the Sydney CBD.
• Proximity/ Access to Key Employment Centres: the relative accessibility of residents of the GA to jobs.
• Transport Infrastructure Access: overall accessibility and functionality of transport networks linking the
growth area to other areas of Sydney.
• Social Infrastructure: proximity to and quality of social infrastructure supporting the centre (e.g., health
centres, education, community, recreational).
Each of the GAs were scored against the five criteria for the years 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. Equal weightings
were applied to each criteria in each time period.
The sum product of the scores for each GA in each time period were squared to provide a final score, which was
used to reflect the ‘attractiveness’ of each area and provide a relative share of total demand to apportion to each
area.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
49
SUMMARY OF DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR GAS IN AGGREGATE
This section outlines demand projections for the GAs as a whole as modelled using the ratio and equation models.
Two demand scenarios are modelled:
• The first scenario is premised on there being a 20% capture of new housing demand and consequent
residential activity of metropolitan Sydney by the GAs. This is termed a ‘Lower Growth Scenario’.
• The second scenario assumes a 30% capture of new housing demand and consequent residential activity of
metropolitan Sydney by the GAs. This is termed a ‘Higher Growth Scenario’.
A previous version of the metropolitan plan (Metropolitan Plan for Sydney 2036 released in 2010) articulated an
aspirational target split of new dwellings (i.e. 70% to be in existing suburbs and 30% in Greenfield areas). It was
further espoused that 85% of new Greenfield dwellings should be in the “Growth Centres”, or Growth Areas as
referred to in this Study. This would imply an allocation of around 25% (30% x 85%) of growth in dwellings in
Metropolitan Sydney is targeted to be in the Growth Areas.
The table below contains baseline official projection statistics for the combined GAs and rest of metropolitan
Sydney. These baseline projections were used as a basis for projecting additional dwelling growth in the GAs.
Table C.1. Baseline (Official) Projections, 2011 to 2036
Indicator 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Sydney Metropolitan Area (a)
Population 4,286,350 4,681,800 5,106,450 5,537,800 5,975,700 6,421,950 1.6%
Households 1,566,500 1,726,900 1,891,500 2,058,350 2,230,600 2,409,300 1.7%
Dwellings 1,673,900 1,844,800 2,019,700 2,196,750 2,380,000 2,569,900 1.7%
Growth Areas (b)
Population 74,598 100,365 112,861 125,730 138,607 151,797 2.9%
Households 23,761 31,667 35,977 40,345 44,746 49,387 3.0%
Dwellings 24,926 33,243 37,767 42,345 46,970 51,842 3.0%
Rest of Metropolitan Sydney (c)
Population 4,211,752 4,581,435 4,993,589 5,412,070 5,837,093 6,270,153 1.6%
Households 1,542,739 1,695,233 1,855,523 2,018,005 2,185,854 2,359,913 1.7%
Dwellings 1,648,974 1,811,557 1,981,933 2,154,405 2,333,030 2,518,058 1.7%
GAs as Proportion of Metropolitan Sydney
Population 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% -
Households 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% -
Dwellings 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% -
Notes: (a) Sydney Metropolitan Area projections are based on the latest (2016) projections from DPE. (b) GA projections are based on 2014(b) DPE projection series, as the latest (2016) DPE projections are not presented at geographies lower than LGAs. (c) This is calculated as the difference between Sydney Metropolitan Area projections and GA projections. Sources: DPE (2016, 2014), AEC.
The sections below outline preliminary demand projections in each scenario where a reduction in residential activity
are assumed in the rest of metropolitan Sydney as a result of development in the GAs.
Scenario 1: 20% Capture of Dwelling Demand and Activity from Rest of Metropolitan Sydney
This demand scenario assumes 20% of dwelling demand and residential activity in metropolitan Sydney is captured
in the GAs, with the other 80% captured in the rest of metropolitan Sydney.
Table C.2. Scenario 1 - Modelled (Ratio Model) Projections of GAs and Rest of Sydney (20%)
Indicator 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Growth Areas
Population 74,598 100,365 189,596 279,690 372,070 466,594 7.6%
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
50
Indicator 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Households 23,761 31,667 64,490 97,752 132,173 167,869 8.1%
Dwellings 24,926 33,243 68,223 103,633 140,283 178,263 8.2%
Rest of Metropolitan Sydney
Population 4,211,752 4,581,435 4,916,854 5,258,110 5,603,630 5,955,356 1.4%
Households 1,542,739 1,695,233 1,827,010 1,960,598 2,098,427 2,241,431 1.5%
Dwellings 1,648,974 1,811,557 1,951,477 2,093,117 2,239,717 2,391,637 1.5%
GAs as Proportion of Metropolitan Sydney
Population 1.7% 2.1% 3.7% 5.1% 6.2% 7.3% -
Households 1.5% 1.8% 3.4% 4.7% 5.9% 7.0% -
Dwellings 1.5% 1.8% 3.4% 4.7% 5.9% 6.9% -
Sources: DPE (2016, 2014), AEC.
A comparison of the modelled projections (from each model) against official projections is presented below.
Table C.3. Scenario 1 - Projections of Dwelling Demand (Modelled and Official) for GAs
Projection Series
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Equation Model 24,926 33,243 64,485 95,804 128,378 162,571 7.8%
Ratio Model 24,926 33,243 68,223 103,633 140,283 178,263 8.2%
Official Projections 24,926 33,243 37,767 42,345 46,970 51,842 3.0%
Sources: DPE (2016, 2014), AEC.
Scenario 2: 30% Capture of Dwelling Demand and Activity from Rest of Metropolitan Sydney
This demand scenario assumes 30% of dwelling demand and residential activity in metropolitan Sydney is captured
in the GAs, with the other 70% captured in the rest of metropolitan Sydney.
Table C.4. Scenario 2 - Modelled (Ratio Model) Projections of GAs and Rest of Sydney (30%)
Indicator 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Growth Areas
Population 74,598 100,365 233,663 368,103 505,973 647,150 9.0%
Households 23,761 31,667 80,865 130,719 182,316 235,825 9.6%
Dwellings 24,926 33,243 85,713 138,828 193,803 250,773 9.7%
Rest of Metropolitan Sydney
Population 4,211,752 4,581,435 4,872,787 5,169,697 5,469,727 5,774,800 1.3%
Households 1,542,739 1,695,233 1,810,635 1,927,631 2,048,284 2,173,475 1.4%
Dwellings 1,648,974 1,811,557 1,933,987 2,057,922 2,186,197 2,319,127 1.4%
GAs as Proportion of Metropolitan Sydney
Population 1.7% 2.1% 4.6% 6.6% 8.5% 10.1% -
Households 1.5% 1.8% 4.3% 6.4% 8.2% 9.8% -
Dwellings 1.5% 1.8% 4.2% 6.3% 8.1% 9.8% -
Sources: DPE (2016, 2014), AEC.
A comparison of the modelled projections (from each model) against official projections is presented below.
Table C.5. Scenario 2 - Projections of Dwelling Demand (Modelled and Official) for GAs
Projection Series
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 Avg. Ann. Change
Equation Model 24,926 33,243 79,107 124,561 171,656 220,993 9.1%
Ratio Model 24,926 33,243 85,713 138,828 193,803 250,773 9.7%
Official Projections 24,926 33,243 37,767 42,345 46,970 51,842 3.0%
Sources: DPE (2016, 2014), AEC.
LOWES CREEK MARYLAND HOUSING & MARKET NEEDS ANALYSIS
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