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ATLA
NTI
C O
CEA
N
NORTH CAROLINATENNESSEE
KENT
UCKY
WES
T VI
RGIN
IA
MARYLAND
WASHINGTON, D.C.
Culpeper Basin
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Scientific Investigations Report 20115143
Prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
Low-Flow Characteristics of Virginia Streams
Cover art. See figure 1 (map showing low-flow study sites in Virginia).
Low-Flow Characteristics of Virginia Streams
By Samuel H. Austin, Jennifer L. Krstolic, and Ute Wiegand
Prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
Scientific Investigations Report 20115143
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the InteriorKEN SALAZAR, Secretary
U.S. Geological SurveyMarcia K. McNutt, Director
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011
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Suggested citation:Austin, S.H., Krstolic, J.L., and Wiegand, Ute, 2011, Low-flow characteristics of Virginia streams: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20115143, 122 p. + 9 tables on CD.
(Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2011/5143/.)
ISBN 978 1 4113 3287 4
http://www.usgs.govhttp://www.usgs.gov/pubprodhttp://store.usgs.gov
iii
ContentsAbstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1
Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................1Background............................................................................................................................................2Physical Setting.....................................................................................................................................2
Coastal Plain .................................................................................................................................2Piedmont........................................................................................................................................2Blue Ridge .....................................................................................................................................4Valley and Ridge ...........................................................................................................................4Appalachian Plateaus .................................................................................................................4
Previous Studies ...................................................................................................................................4Approach .........................................................................................................................................................5
Site Selection.........................................................................................................................................5Data Evaluation .....................................................................................................................................5Monthly Streamflow Statistics ...........................................................................................................6Flow-Duration Curves...........................................................................................................................6Low-Flow Frequency Analysis ............................................................................................................6
Conditional-Probability Adjustment ..........................................................................................7MOVE.1 Regression Equations for Short-Term, Continuous-Record and Partial-Record
Streamgaging Stations ...........................................................................................................8MOVE.1 Analyses for Short-Term, Continuous-Record Streamgaging Stations ...............8MOVE.1 Analyses for Partial-Record Streamgaging Stations .............................................8
Basin Characteristics ...........................................................................................................................9Regionalization ...............................................................................................................................................9
Definition of Regions ............................................................................................................................9Model Development ...........................................................................................................................12Model Verification and Diagnostics ................................................................................................12
Weighting Multiple Estimates ....................................................................................................................19Weighting of Independent Estimates ..............................................................................................19
Low-Flow Characteristics...........................................................................................................................20Other Methods for Estimation at Ungaged Sites ....................................................................................20Example Applications ..................................................................................................................................20
Use of Regression Equations ............................................................................................................21Drainage-Area Ratio Method ...........................................................................................................21Ungaged Site with Nearby Gage ......................................................................................................21Gaged Site ............................................................................................................................................22
Summary........................................................................................................................................................22Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................22References ....................................................................................................................................................23Glossary .........................................................................................................................................................26
iv
Figures 1. Map showing selected low-flow study sites and physiographic provinces
for application of low-flow regional estimating equations. ...................................................3 2. Example leverage plots showing significant explanatory power, insignificant
explanatory power, and evidence of collinearity ..................................................................13
Tables 1. Study sites and their identifying information ......................................................CD in pocket 2. Monthly streamflow statistics for selected continuous-record
streamgaging stations ............................................................................................CD in pocket 3. Flow-duration statistics and flow variability indices for selected
streamgaging stations ............................................................................................CD in pocket 4. Low-flow characteristics of streamgaging stations in Virginia ..........................................27 5. Low-flow MOVE.1 equations for selected short-term,
continuous-record streamgaging stations ..........................................................CD in pocket 6. Low-flow MOVE.1 equations for selected partial-record
streamgaging stations ............................................................................................CD in pocket 7. Statistics summarizing basin characteristics selected for regional
regression of low flows in Virginia .......................................................................CD in pocket 8. Selected basin characteristics, their definitions, and datasources ..................................10 9. Basin characteristics of low-flow streamgaging stations in Virginia .............CD in pocket 10. Regional regression equations for estimating low flows
of streams in Virginia ..........................................................................................................
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