low carbon development planning
Post on 25-Feb-2016
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Low Carbon Development Planning
How to EFFECT Low Carbon Development
What is EFFECT?
• Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model
• Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy
• Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels
• Used in Brazil, India, Poland, and six Asian-Pacific countries
Energy Forecasting Framework & Emissions Consensus Tool
How does EFFECT Support Low Carbon Development (LCD)?
SCENARIO PLANNING• Develop emissions forecasts over a 25-year+ period • Prioritize GHG emission reduction • Design development and investment plans • Identify conditions necessary for a supportive, enabling environment
for implementation
MULTI-SECTOR FOCUS• Power Generation• Large-Scale Energy Intensive Industry• On-Road Transport• Household Electricity Use• Nonresidential Energy Use
Transport
EFFECT – Transport model Forecast change in
– Freight and passenger transport needs– On-road vehicle fleet size and composition– Fuel/energy consumption and GHG emissions
Why is it important? Both passenger and freight are fastest growing GHG sectors in most
developing countries– Increasing urbanization– Increasing household income
Both are often underestimated– In Mexico City, on-road transport almost half of total combustion
energy
Transport Model
Current Usage:– Initially developed for the India Low Carbon Growth Study – Has been used in 9 city-level studies:
Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh
City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar
– Used in Brazil Low Carbon Growth Study and Nigeria– Basis for CTF measurement methodology
Transport Modeling Framework
Purpose
Calculate and forecastVehicle Ownership and Use
Transport Model
Purpose
Disaggregate vehicle ownership and use
Calculate and forecast
• Fuel consumptionFossil and Total
• GHG emissionsUltimate CO2
• Local emissionsCO, VOC, NOx, PM
Transport Model
Five step process
Project ownership and usage of vehicles Disaggregate vehicle population by type, technology, age, and
fuel and project sales of new vehicles Compute the fuel consumption and emissions factors for each
specific type and technology of vehicle using the COPERT 4 model calibrated to local conditions..
Project improvements in vehicle efficiency using a marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve for distinct types and sub-types of vehicle.
Compute the energy consumption and emissions for each type and sub-type of vehicle and for the active vehicle population.
Compute Emissions
Key Variables Output from transport model or data on vehicle ownership and use Historic sales data Forecast sales mix Fuel consumption data for calibration Energy efficiency assumptions and adoption timeline
EFFECT Model
www.esmap.org
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