loss avoidance analysis carly a. foster, cfm - arcadis joy duperault, cfm – state of florida...

Loss Avoidance Analysis Carly A. Foster, CFM - ARCADIS

Joy Duperault, CFM – State of Florida Floodplain Manager

2012 ASFPM ConferenceMay 20 – 25 • San Antonio, Texas

Emergency Management Time Horizon

Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation / Resiliency Sustainability

Floodplain Managers

Where on this spectrum does public sentiment and the will to make political expenditures lie?

Citizen Competence and Government Accountability:Voter Responses to Natural Disaster Relief and Preparedness Spending 2009

“Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent … for delivering

disaster relief spending but not for investing in disaster preparedness (and mitigation) spending.

These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness (and

mitigation), thereby causing substantial public welfare losses.”

“How do we encourage more action to prevent this from happening?”

So, to paraphrase a question posed on a LinkedIn message board…

• When the potential costs of inaction are clear

AND

• Post-disaster

BUT, there is also “Some… evidence that governments may be able to take action to make preparedness

salient to voters in a more permanent fashion.”

From the Same Report:

There is a Surge in Support for Mitigation…

What is loss avoidance?

EXPECTED DAMAGE WITHOUT MITIGATION

– DAMAGE EXPERIENCED WITH MITIGATION

– COST OF MITIGATION

LOSS AVOIDANCE

Benefits = (Hypothetical) Avoided Damage + Avoided Costs + Avoided Loss of Service

• Flood Mitigation is important

AND

• Money spent on flood mitigation is money well spent

At a time when the message may be most likely to come across loud and clear

Loss Avoidance Analysis Results Can Show…

Loss Avoidance Assessment as Part of a System Communicating the Value of Mitigation

REQUIREMENT §201.5(B)(2)(IV)

The State must “document the system and strategy by which the State will conduct an

assessment of the completed mitigation actions and include a record of the

effectiveness (actual cost avoidance) of each mitigation action.”

Enhanced status has meant millions in extra funding for the State of Florida.

• Tropical Storm Fay

• North Florida Flood Events

Where We’ve Been…

• Record-keeping was inadequate– Difficult to find sites in damage swath– Many project files already archived– Original local project managers often gone– Owners may be new– Best available data often lacking

AND

• The methodology was primitive

What We Discovered…

• Record-keeping was inadequate– Difficult to find sites in damage swath– Many project files already archived– Original local project managers often gone– Owners may be new– Best available data often lacking

AND

• The methodology was primitive

POST DISASTER LOSS AVOIDANCE ASSESSMENT FOR BUILDING MODIFICATION PROJECTS

Florida’s Method

• Limited project utility

• High data demands

• Engineers and higher levels of technical expertise

• Presumably high costs

A Review of National Studies Revealed…

• Limited project utility

• High data demands

• Engineers and higher levels of technical expertise

• Presumably high costs

SimplificationAutomationReplication

DefensibilityEase of Implementation

Long-term Tracking of Results

Florida’s Objectives

• Detailed Literature Review

• Data Requirement Analysis

• Process Streamlining

• Automation

• Engineer QAQC

How We Pursued Them…

• Project Record Keeping and Data Needs

• Event Data Collection and Processing

• Loss Avoidance Calculator

• Report Development Tools

• Technical Details

Where We’re At…

The Building Modifications Calculator

Staff Input

Other costs/ losses (annual maintenance, lost tax revenue, etc.) not shown here.

The Value of Electronic Project Data

Robust Vs. Limited DataBecause older project files can exist in varying levels of

completeness…

• Some fields are not required, but add to the robustness of the calculations

• Data can be gathered in a variety of ways• Simply keep track of where data was gathered from• For example:

– Elevation data?– Building data?– Project Cost?– Yearly or other costs?

FEMA’s Preferred Flood Elevation Sources

March 28, 2012 Carly Cermak FFMA

Losses avoided can be calculated for one event or multiple events (life of structure)

• Nominal – Current to year

• Real – normalized to today’s dollars (This is done in three different ways in the calculator)

Nominal vs. Real Dollars

Nominal Losses Avoided

Nominal Expected and Actual Losses

March 28, 2012 Carly Cermak FFMA

• A building damage of 50 percent or more would result in demolition (default value specified in FEMA’s BCA Riverine Flood-Full Data Module).

• Like others, our depth damage tables don’t take velocity or sediment deposits into consideration. This translates to conservative measurements.

• Only financial costs are considered.

Assumptions• A building damage of 50 percent or more would

result in demolition (default value specified in FEMA’s BCA Riverine Flood-Full Data Module).

• Like others, our depth damage tables don’t take velocity or sediment deposits into consideration. This translates to conservative measurements.

• Only financial costs are considered.

Benefits of Florida’s Method• Communicates value

• Facilitates communication of urgency

• Due to automation and limited need for expertise, does not add significantly to the cost of mitigation

• Works into current PDA process

• Simple and comprehensive

• Can help identify mitigation best practices and, hence, facilitate future project selection

• Captures longitudinal benefits and can provide the net present value of a project

SimplifiedAutomatedReplicableDefensible

Long-term Tracking of Results

Objectives Accomplished

Questions?

Joy Duperault - FDEMJoy.Duperault@em.myflorida.com

Carly Foster – Technical QuestionsCarly.Foster@arcadis-us.com

850-228-6979

Contacts

Thank you!!