looking ahead

Presentation available at scottlay.com

Looking AheadJoint Special Populations Advisory Committee

December 5, 2012

Topics

•Looking Back

•Looking Ahead

•Discussion

1910Fresno becomes first

junior college after the Legislature authorizes high schools to offer

postsecondary courses

1917Legislature enacts Junior College Act, extends courses of study to:

•mechanical and industrial arts

•household economy

•agriculture

•civic education and

•commerce.

1921Legislature authorizes creation of local districts

•Organized under K-12 laws

•locally-elected governing boards

•State Department of Education to monitor

•Creation of Junior College Fund

•Nation’s first state funding

1960• formally

recognized the three systems

• CCC mission: transfer, vocational and general ed

• 56 locally governed districts; 380,000 students

1967

•Dept of Ed oversight deemed weak

•Board of Governors created

•“Bilateral governance”

•76 colleges, 610,000 students

1970s - 1980s•1976 - Education Employment

Relations Act

•1978 - Proposition 13

•1984 - first enrollment fee

•1988 - AB 1725

•1988 - Proposition 98

The Era of Change

1990s-2000s

•1991-94: Recession caused fee increases, cuts.

•1994-2000: Strong revenue growth increased Prop 98 guarantee, fast CCC growth.

•2001: Stock market collapse

•2008: Real estate, banking collapse

•Time of significant change.

198061% white

CCC

201269%

non-white

CCC

ShiftHappens.Are we shifting accordingly?

Three Years of Change

•Dramatic changes in adult and noncredit education.

•Significant reduction in “recreational” courses or “lifelong learning.”

•Limits on community college repeatability.

•Priority registration (forthcoming).

CCC Enrollment

K-12 Graduates Change

Proposition 30“Yes” votes by age:

•18-29: 69%

•25-29: 61%

•30-39: 53%

•40-49: 47%

•50-64: 48%

•65+: 48%

Yes: 55.3%, No: 44.7%

Budget Outlook

Proposition 983.4%-5.3% increase per year

Looking Ahead• State’s outlook is moderately strong.

• K-12 graduates 4% lower in 2020-21 than in 2009-10.

• Students will choose employment over education.

• Fixed and accrued costs will escalate as % of district budgets.

• PERS, STRS, Retiree Health, “deferred” maintenance

• Low demand will give “catch up” time.

• Opportunities, and challenges ahead with divergent district needs.

Looking Ahead for CTE

•Modest Prop. 98 funding increases will strain budgets and pressure “low cost” programs.

•High demand in high cost programs --how to fund?

•Increased federal accountability likely with Perkins reauthorization.