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The basic lines of scientific research into
water resources
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The basic lines of scientific research into water resources
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT UNDER LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON THE MODEL “CLIMATE-RUNOFF”
DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF CATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON
THE RIVERS
TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF SNOW AND
PRECIPITATION
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WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
IN UKRAINE UNDER IN UKRAINE UNDER
LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION LIFECONDITIONED TRANSFORMATION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON
THE BASIS OFTHE BASIS OF
“ “CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL CLIMATE – RUNOFF” MODEL
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PROJECT GOAL:
To present efficiency of To present efficiency of
““climate – runoff” model climate – runoff” model
in evaluation of water management in evaluation of water management transformation consequencestransformation consequences
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Project Members:
Department of Land Hydrology, Odessa State Environmental University, 15
Lvovskaya Street, Odessa 65016, UkraineHead of the Department of Land
Hydrology – Eugen D. Gopchenko Leader of the Project– professor Nataliya S. Loboda (loboda@paco.net)
Phone: 326-746 e-mail: gidro@ogmi.farlep.odessa.ua
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“CLIMATE-RUNOFF” MODEL
Climatic factors (precipitation, temperature)
Underlying surface (swamps, lakes, cavern water, soil)
Annual natural runoff
Lifeconditioned runoff
Water management actions(irrigation, drainage, swift
transference of water, creation of artificial reservoirs)
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PRINCIPAL QUESTIONS
How do you estimate natural water resources?
How do you take into account climatic changes in runoff calculations?
How do you estimate runoff changes as a result of simultaneous global warning
and water management transformation?
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Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence
Hydrological system under anthropogenic influence can be described by means of the classical mechanics master equation of the Liuville type as follows:
dY—+ L(Λ,Y)= εdtY(t) = Y(t0)-S L(Λ,Y)dt +S ε dt У (t0 ) - natural flow; Y(t ) - anthropogenic flow; ε - external effect caused global warming; L - operator of life-conditioned influence describing flow changes under water-management transformations (irrigation, additional evaporation from water surface of artificial water reservoirs, regenerated flow).
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Annual Climatic Norms of Runoff Calculated by Meteorological Data
Zones of surplus (Yk140 мм), sufficient (30Yk <140 мм) and
insufficient (Yk<30 мм) humidity
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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State
Scheme of Irrigative System in the South of Ukraine
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Norm of Climatic Annual Runoff Characterizes Water Resources under Natural State
Critical scales f (%) of water surface in artificial reservoirs inthe south – western Ukraine under initial climatic conditions
Norms of climaticrunoff,mm
Critical scales f (%) ,under decreasing water resources
10% 50% 70%*
30 0,7 4,0 6,5
20 0,5 3,0 5,0
10 0,3 2,0 3,7•Destruction of Water System
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Influence of Global Warming on the Natural Resources of Ukraine
0 .00
400 .00
800 .00
1200 .00
0 1 2 3
E m ; X ;Y ,м м
Resources of humidity (X), Resources of warmth and water resources (Y) in the central part of Ukraine under climatice conditions within the latest century and in accordance with the scenarios (1,2,3), (0) being the initial stage of
global warmingMaximum decrease of water resources comprises 25%, according to
the Script 1
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Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual Response Functions for Long Time Average of Annual Lifeconditioned Runoff of CatchmentsLifeconditioned Runoff of Catchments
The figure shows response functions for long time average (norm) of annual lifeconditioned runoff of catchments, situated on the Crimea pensula’s plain. Ordinates of these dependences are coefficients, characterizing changes to the norms of runoff under conditions of additional inflow from agricultural areas, irrigated by water of North Crimean Canal. The figure illustrates increasing norms of lifeconditioned runoff with growing areas of irrigation . If The anthropogenic effect depends on the level of optimal moistening of soil. At present time small rivers of the Crimean pensula’s plain are drainage canals. The red line shows the level of essential changes of runoff norms equal to 10%.
0 2 4 6 8 1 0
0.9 0
1.0 0
1.1 0
1.2 0
1.3 0
1.4 0
1.5 0
1.6 0
1.7 0
1.8 0
1.9 0
f ,%
K y
V 0= 1 .0
V 0= 0 .9
V 0= 0 .8
и з м е н е н и я , п р ев ы ш а ю щ и е 1 0 %
LY
0V
NY
LYYk
0f NYLY
LOGO
DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE DEVELOPMENT OF SCIENTIFIC BASE ANDAND
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RECOMMENDATIONS FOR WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENTRESOURCE MANAGEMENT DURING FORMATION OF DURING FORMATION OF
CATASTROPHICCATASTROPHIC FLOODS ON THE RIVERS FLOODS ON THE RIVERS
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DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA PHENOMENA
FLOODFLOODSPRINGSPRINGFLOODFLOOD
DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL DANGEROUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA PHENOMENA
WINTERSUMMER AUTUMN SPRING
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OSENU OSENU TECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMTECHNIQUE FOR ACCOUNT OF THE MAXIMUMUM RUNOFFRUNOFF OF THE RIVERS OF THE RIVERS
SCHEME OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION
Precipitation
Slope influx
q` m
Channel and flood plain
storage
Time lag of the flood wave
Channel runoff
q m
Lakes, Reservoirs
Forest
Swamp
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GENERAL STRUCTURE OF A DESIGN MODEL
rF)T/t(qq 0pmm , (1)
MAXIMUM SPECIFIC DISCHARGE OF SLOPE INFLUX
0
%1pm T
Y
n
1nkq
(2)
TRANSFORMATION FUNCTION OF FLOOD
a) for 0<tp/T0<1.0 n
0
p
1
10p T
t
)1nm)(1n(
1m1)T/t(
; (3)
b) for tp/T01.0
1m
p
0
111
1
p
00p t
T
)1nm(m
1n
m
1m
t
T
1n
n)T/t( (4)
CHANNEL AND FLOOD PLAIN STORAGE
r0T/pt(mq
mqF (5)
LOGO
TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM TERRITORIAL LONG-TERM FORECAST FORECAST
OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF OF MAXIMUM RIVER RUNOFF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF RESULTING FROM MELTING OF
SNOW AND PRECIPITATIONSNOW AND PRECIPITATION
Processing of on-line hydrometeorological dataScheme of long-term forecast for maximum floodkm=f[(Sm+P1+P2)/(So+P1o+P2о)]
І. Qualitative forecast (model of discriminant function)DF=ao+a1x1+a2x2+…+amxm
Map for the forecast module coefficients (km)
Derivation of the value for maximum
flood
INITIAL DATA BASE
Basic data On-line data
Morphometric features of water
catchment
Average perennial hydrological
characteristics
Depth of frost zone
Water-storage of snow cover
Precipitation Soil moisture
Air temperature
ІІІ. Determination of probability of the forecast value in perennial period (Р%)
Map for the probability (Р%)
Estimation of forecast
Forecast lead time
ІІ. Quantitative forecast – derivation of module coefficient km
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весеннего половодья в 2003 г.
Change of forecast module coefficient for maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003
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Change in probability of forecast module coefficients for values of maximum discharge of spring flood across the territory in 2003
(in per cent)
LOGO
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