lock in and vaporware: what’s the connection?

Lock In and Vaporware: Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?What’s the Connection?

Erica GierkeErica Gierke

Advisors: Chris Fernandes Advisors: Chris Fernandes

and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)

AgendaAgenda

Economic problems of lock in and Economic problems of lock in and vaporwarevaporware

Experimental StructureExperimental Structure

ResultsResults

ConclusionConclusion

What is Lock In?What is Lock In?

Why Does It Matter?Why Does It Matter?

Adopting standards makes Adopting standards makes improvement hardimprovement hard

Standards are good, static standards Standards are good, static standards are badare bad

Contributing FactorsContributing Factors

•CompatibilityCompatibility

•Network ExternalitiesNetwork Externalities

•Example:Example:•How useful is an instant How useful is an instant messenger that no one else messenger that no one else uses?uses?

PreannouncementsPreannouncements

• Many technology products are Many technology products are preannouncedpreannounced

• Give insight into future products Give insight into future products availableavailable

• Sometimes truthful, sometimes notSometimes truthful, sometimes not

VaporwareVaporware

• A deliberate false product A deliberate false product announcementannouncement

• Can influence other producers and Can influence other producers and consumersconsumers

• Problem- false announcements can Problem- false announcements can delay technology even moredelay technology even more

How does vaporware hurt?How does vaporware hurt?

Hypothesis:Hypothesis:

Vaporware Vaporware announcements prolong announcements prolong lock inlock in

The Experimental ProgramThe Experimental Program

Producers Consumers

Database Backend

The ExperimentThe Experiment

A1A1

A2A2 B2B2

$$$

The Producer’s InterfaceThe Producer’s Interface

ProducerStart

Production Page

Update Database/ Production Feedback

Vaporware Announcement

SubmitAnnouncement/ Announcement

Feedback

ProducerWait

ProducerFeedback

The Consumer’s InterfaceThe Consumer’s Interface

ConsumerStart

ConsumerWait

ConsumerUpdate/

Purchase Feedback

ConsumerFeedback

ConsumerPurchase

DataData

Collected data over 4 sessionsCollected data over 4 sessions

Two 4 round and two 8 round Two 4 round and two 8 round sessionssessions

Most interesting data from 8 round Most interesting data from 8 round sessionssessions

DataDataBest Progress

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Technology Type

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Lev

el

Best Progress

Inefficient Progression

A B C D E F G H I

Best Progress For Producers

Session 3- ProducersSession 3- ProducersSession 3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Technology Type

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Lev

el

Best Progress

1P

2P

3P

4P

A B C D E F G H I

Session 4- ProducersSession 4- Producers

Session 4

123456789

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Technology Type

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Lev

el Best Progress

1P

2P

3P

4P

A B C D E F G H I

Vaporware AnnouncementsVaporware Announcements

Session three, one announcementSession three, one announcement

Session four, one producer Session four, one producer announced most roundsannounced most rounds

Session 3- AnnouncementsSession 3- AnnouncementsSession 3

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Technology Type

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Lev

el

Best Progress

1P

2P

3P

4P

A B C D E F G H I

Session 4- AnnouncementsSession 4- Announcements

Session 4

123456789

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Technology Type

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Lev

el Best Progress

1P

2P

3P

4P

A B C D E F G H I

ConclusionConclusion

Vaporware impedes progressVaporware impedes progress

Sessions with less announcements Sessions with less announcements progressed furtherprogressed further

Questions?Questions?