local to national, dr lee belbin, aceas grand 2014

Local To National

The Capacity For Increasing The Spatial Scale Of Monitoring

Lee Belbin

Don Stevens, Tim Page, Simone Langhans, Melissa Dobbie, Stuart Bunn, Lee Belbin, Peter NegusJon Olley, Janet Stein, Wayne Robinson, Bruce Chessman, Nick Bond, Ben Stewart-KosterFran Sheldon, Erin Peterson and Trefor Reynoldson

Monitoring

• Monitoring is used for water supply, conservation planning, water quality, state of environment reporting, management and detecting disturbance

The Australian

Issue 1

• Monitoring happens at site or local scale but management happens on catchment or regional scale

Issue 2

• Aggregation of local to regional information is currently inconsistent

expatify.com)

Issue 3

• Assessment is difficult in areas of low or no data

expatify.com)

Question

• Can a spatial modelling approach predict ecosystem health along stream networks for entire catchments?

The Australian

Indicator Selection

The spatial-temporal characteristics of remotely derived covariates of an indicator must be suitable for prediction

Seining for fish (photo: Fran Sheldon)

Survey DesignThe survey design must ensure that the locations of data are suitable for model-based predictions and maintain statistical integrity

Flinders River (photo: Fran Sheldon)

Assessment

Survey and model-based data must be quantitatively integrated into the assessment process

Data Collection

Set objectives

Spatially-explicit Design- based Protocol

Fit Model, Make Predictions, &

Quantify Uncertainty

Covariate data (spatially extensive)

Model based

Conceptual Model Development &

Indicator selection

±H

ave we m

et our objectives?

Is u

ncer

tain

ty a

ccep

tabl

e?

Reporting

Scenarios

12

3

4

5

Indicator data

Design based

Identify the areas of greatest uncertainty

and bias

Assessment6

7

9

10

Data Collection

Set objectives

Spatially-explicit Design- based Protocol

Fit Model, Make Predictions, &

Quantify Uncertainty

Covariate data (spatially extensive)

Model based

Conceptual Model Development &

Indicator selection

±H

ave we m

et our objectives?

Is u

ncer

tain

ty a

ccep

tabl

e?

Reporting

Scenarios

12

3

4

5

Indicator data

Design based

Identify the areas of greatest uncertainty

and bias

Assessment6

7

9

10

UncertaintyUncertainty must be accounted for during the assessment and reporting process. Uncertainty should also feedback into the survey-design phase to identify areas where more or less data are required

Murray River (photo: Doug Ward)

Scenarios

Spatially explicit management scenarios allow cause-and-effect linkages to be explored

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Re-St/Stream-Ecology-Temperature-Impacts-on.html

Reporting

Design and model-based reporting using innovative visualisation techniques (e.g. continuous maps of condition, trend, and uncertainty) aid communication with stakeholders.

http://alchemistclub.wikispaces.com/What+is+a+stream%3F

SummaryThe workshop outcome maximises the use of data from design-based assessments and provides a framework for future monitoring programs that combine design-based assessment with spatial-modelling.

Getty images

QUESTIONS?no

pleeeeaaaaaase