life after shopping 12th european forum on eco-innovation gaetan siew strategy & development uia...

Life after shopping

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Gaetan Siew

Strategy & Development UIA Past President

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

OptimismGreat DisruptionChange of expectations

Optimism• Good in crisis• Backs against the wall• Stop addiction to growth• Rough ride to better

place• Debt is due

Great Disruption• Economic /Ecosystem crash

synchro• Food shortages• Climate catastrophes• Massive economic change• Global geopolitical instability

Change in expectations• Our material lifestyles• Nature & focus of our work &

career• Our expectations of government• Communities/Companies behaviour

This is your story, our story. This is the time . This is our time.

Choking citiesJakarta ~10h/dayIndia - $4,5 b €/year

In the Eye of the Cyclone

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

“The era of procrastination, of half measures, of soothing and baffling expedience of delays, is coming to its close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences... We cannot avoid this period, we are in it now...”W Churchill - 1926

The Scream – Our children’s childrenMankind ProgressNatureRio to Durban

Mankind Progress• Depth & Complexity of

issues• Experience +

Understanding

Part and Parcel of Nature

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

A Very Big ProblemGlobal FootprintHumanity v/s MoneySkepticism

Humanity v/s Money• Sir N Stern : Unchecked climate = 20% GDP• Can we afford this?

The World• 2007 : > 50% urban population• Monster or sustainable cities ?• + 3 b people in South Cities by 2050• 500 000 slum dwellers /month

Global Footprint - Climate Refugees• 2011: Thailand Floods = 34 € bn• 1 000s of lives• China droughts = 4m families < 60 years• Russia = record °C – banned wheat exports• Pakistan, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia,

Somalia

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Beyond the limits No action ?Limits

World : 1 hectare of agri-land lost/sec

No action?• No action = more of the same• Problem will be fixed by

• New technologies• Power of markets• New capital injection

• Not going to happen• Will we continue• Business as usual?

Limits• Planet’s finite physical resources• Capacity to absorb impact• 9 bn people

• To feed (+50% demand in 2030 – World Bank)• To house

• If poor grow modestly 2%/Year • 2050 : Global economy x 15 of now• Now = 140% of planet capacity

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

3 QuestionsWhere are we now?

3 Questions• Problem is population?• Market/Technology will fix it

?• Different economy?

Where are we now?• Challenge = clear, logical, accepted• Herculean task• Maths do not work if eco grows• No observation of global scale action• Momentum against us• Resistance to change

continues/strengthens

Beyond the limits

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Addicted to GrowthWe love it!Choice?What is the issue?

BangladeshClimate refugeesWorld = 250m/Y

We love it!• Political/Economical strategy of every gov/company

Issue?Not when but how• How to adjust?

Planet and/or Civilisation• Not only about saving the planet• About saving the civilisation

Human Issue• Human Issue

• Most importantly human

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

When the Dam of Denial BreaksGlobal Emergency ResponseNew Economic ModelOld/New Systems

Sahara Sun = 10 000 EU needsSun = 10 000 x world daily needs

Global Emergency Response• Initial response: Energy, Transport, Agriculture• Climate change = Symptom, not the problem• Expand Response to other Sustainability Issues

Two Responses in parallel• Old Economy & System : trying to fix itself

• With existing assumptions and mechanisms• New Economy

• With out of the box thinking

New Economic Model• Not involving Consumerism/material growth• Alleviating poverty / Inequity• New Energy Systems: Renewable energies• City reDesign for Quality of life

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

The One-degree WarRapid Response Possible2 Phases

The global risk of coastal flooding

2 Phases• Phase 1: Failure of growth

• Assumption: Growth = prosperity/success• Resistance: to restart growth

• Phase 2: End of growth• Breakthru’ in technology• Cities, transport, agriculture transformed

• Rapid global change with• Resilience, ingenuity, brilliance, innovation

Rapid Response Possible• Coalition of Cooling• 50% Emission = USA + China + EU27

• 67% Emission = if + Br + Ru + In + Jp

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunSurvivalGeopolitical implications

Survival• Not about size/strength• Adapt + Resilience• Practical Preparedness :

• Right Technology• Psychological Readiness :

• Cope with uncertainty• Cope with rapid change• Challenge >> Decision

One certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Shifting Sands – From Middle East Oil to Chinese SunEU - USA -Asia (China)

EU- USA - Asia (China)• EU - USA losing advance in innovation• EU o 2020 - 20% - 20%• China =

• World largest solar market + Wind power• 2006-10: 20% CO2 reduction• 2020 : 40-45% reduction

• Asia:Less subject to corporate lobby & democracy• Asia : Heavy R&D investment - 2012: 386 b € – 38%

world• Energy Efficiency - New Energies - IT & Biotech, etc

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Who’s in charge?Finance?Media power?Governments?Civil Society?99%?Facebook?

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Creative RedesignOpportunitiesCreative measures

Opportunities• Winners: seize opportunity

• HSBC 2020 : Low CO² tech = 1,5 tn €/Y• WEF 2030 : 13,5 tn € /Y

• Losers: slow to respond >>> Kodak v/s FujiCreative Measures• C5 : Connect the City to Chaos,Crisis & Change

• Create Urban Leadeship• Promote Urban Responsibility • Create Long Term Value• Shop less, live more

• I4 : Invest in Intelligence, IT & Innovation• Connect IT R&D to Quality of Life• Invest in solar/wind/bio• Eco-retrofit the old cities• Sustainable by Design• Value of Time

• E5: Exchange –Export EU Expertise & Experience• Partner with BRICS, Asia & Africa• (Re)Value/adapt expertise to new markets

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Creative RedesignClean Technology?Focus

Future certainty: Plan for dramatic and discontinuous change

Clean Technology?• Close to Zero CO2

• Safe and Affordable• Quality of Life• Geopolitical Security• Future Prosperity• Economic Stability

First Focus : Climate & Energy• Food & Agriculture• Transport & City Planning• Global Energy Efficiency benefits for 50% by 2050 = 6 tn

ۥ EU Renovation market = 32% energy savings

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Two reasons• Only Choice• Happiness Economy

Yes weekend!!!

Yes there’s a life after shopping

Only Choice• Redesign our economy

• Rich in happiness – not physical impact• Rich in Q of life – deep in human development

• Choices: personal, corporate,national & global• Less money, Less stuff, more time >>> Happier

Two reasons for Change• No Choice• Old model outdated

• Has delivered• Cannot anymore

Happiness Economy• Work hard, more wealth. Buy more !?• Seychelles Fisherman• Shop less, Live more• More fun, clearer conscience.• More time, better health

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Lessons?Amsterdam’s CaféActing Collectively

Amsterdam Café – Country’s History• Of Art and Flowers• Of Trade and Globalisation• Of Exploration • All with varying levels of Tolerance and

Humanity

Act collectively – Stop waiting• Decide to change• Decide to act in dignity & with respect• Connect to work• Raise children who think• Be Happy

Amin Maalouf“To reconcile, reunite, adopt, tame,pacify are voluntary acts , are acts of civilisation which needs perseverance and clarity . Acts that are learnt, cultivated. Learning to live together is a never ending battle that is never totally won.”

12th European Forum on Eco-Innovation

Thank youMerci

Gaetan Siew g.siew@Ls-architects.mu

• Resilience• Adaptability• Innovation• Compassion