lectures in macroeconomics- charles w. upton fiscal policy-part 1

Lectures in Macroeconomics- Charles W. Upton

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Argument

• The myth:– Increased Government Spending causes

inflation.

• The reality:– It is a complicated story.

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Our Starting Point

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

An Example

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Suppose the government

decides to increase spending by $X

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

An Example

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Suppose the government

decides to increase spending by $X

A one period spending increase on a foolish project

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

An Example

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Suppose the government

decides to increase spending by $X

A one period spending increase on a foolish projectFinanced by a

surcharge on last year’s tax bill

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Why this Choice?

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We know beneficial products (a new highway)

can have a beneficial effect,

raising A or K

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Why this Choice?

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We know beneficial products (a new highway)

can have a beneficial effect,

raising A or K

We also know that taxes on wages, consumption, etc

can have disincentive

effects.

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Why this Choice?

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We know beneficial products (a new highway)

can have a beneficial effect,

raising A or K

We also know that taxes on wages, consumption, etc

can have disincentive

effects.

Here we are looking at

spending per se

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

What Happens

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Y is up by $X because of the government’s

spending.

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

What Happens

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Y is up by $X because of the government’s

spending.

Y is down by <$X because of

reduced wealth and consumption

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

What Happens

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Y is up by $X because of the government’s

spending.

Y is down by <$X because of

reduced wealth and consumption

In part the increased demand is met by people working harder

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

What Happens

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Y is up by $X because of the government’s

spending.

Y is down by <$X because of

reduced wealth and consumption

In part the increased demand is met by people working harder

The auctioneer notes that

DY-SY = X-Y>0.

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The M Curve

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With wealth down,, Money Demand is down. Ergo, the M curve shifts up and

to the left

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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This is a familiar case, “Spending Foolishly”

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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We know P is up, r is uncertain

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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We know P is up, r is uncertain

As drawn, r is up;

economists think this is the likely outcome

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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We know P is up, r is uncertain

As drawn, r is up;

economists think this is the likely outcome

This is sometimes

referred to as demand pull inflation (or cost push inflation)

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

The Shift in the Y Curve

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We assumed that there was an increase in

Government Spending, financed by taxation.

Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Changing the Experiment

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We assumed that there was an increase in

Government Spending, financed by taxation.

Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Changing the Experiment

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We assumed that there was an increase in

Government Spending, financed by taxation.

Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

Suppose the government

just borrowed $X

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Changing the Experiment

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We assumed that there was an increase in

Government Spending, financed by taxation.

Could different financing scenarios lead to different results?

Suppose the government

just borrowed $XIf people have

a bequest motive, no

change

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Borrowing, No Bequest Motive

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Fiscal Policy-Part 1

Borrowing, No Bequest Motive

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Here there is a difference, albeit a small

one

Fiscal Policy-Part 1

End

©2004 Charles W. Upton. All rights reserved