learning from the tsunami

Learning from the tsunami

Rohan Samarajivawww.lirneasia.net

Agenda Three ways of responding to hazards

1. Pretend the danger will not happen2. Retreat from areas of possible danger3. Understand the risks, make the necessary

preparations, get on with life What is the choice for a dynamic growth-

oriented country? For a dynamic growth-oriented firm? Role of government? Role of private sector?

Pretend the danger does not exist

Sri Lanka has had plenty of disasters Mostly floods and

cyclones Even tsunamis

But we have passed up opportunities for effective preparedness

Examples: From NDMC 1999 Country Report ( excl. 2000 & ’03)

Year Disaster Deaths Affected families

1978 Cyclone 915 250000

1993 Landslides 29 870

1994 Cyclone 10 456

1996 Cyclone 10 8360

1997 Landslides 15 626

2000 Cyclone 8 55000

2003 Floods 200+ 25000+

Consequences are serious Because no national public warning system

existed, gap between first contact (Kalmunai 0827/0836 SLT) and other locations further North, South and on West Coast not used to save lives Estimate: 7,000 could have been saved

Because no dedicated disaster warning center, no effort made to seek information in aftermath of Sumatra-Andamans quake Estimate: 23,000 could have been saved

Retreat from danger If we leave

Beaches for fear of tsunamis . . .

Mountains for fear of landslides . . .

Valleys for fear of floods . . .

. . . . Where will we live?

Retreat Is there any basis in law and

economics? DoesDoes this approach address economic

costs and tradeoffs? What does it do to our psyche? Is it compatible with an

entrepreneurial society? Can any firm adopt it, and yet remain

dynamic?

Embrace risk, intelligently Understand the

hazards Identify the

economic costs and benefits

Work on disaster preparedness

The middle path

Do not take unnecessary risks But do not also run away from risk

Choice based on best possible information and calculation of trade-offs

“Be prepared,” but be adventurous

Understand the hazards

Best possible information on nature of relevant hazards

Vulnerability mapping Physical and historical data Probabilistic

Identify the economic costs and benefits Social and economic data

Disaster preparedness Timely, accurate,

credible warnings Consultative

process in Jan-Feb 2005

Draft document at www.lirneasia.net

Revised text will be published & handed to authorities around Feb 26th

Disaster preparedness Appropriate action is

what will save lives Response plans, drills,

audits Relocation,

modifications, as required

Disaster awareness through education at all levels NIE said to be

promoting in schools Vanguard Foundation

will focus on media and emergency response personnel

Vanguard Centre for Disaster Preparedness

What companies can do . . .Choose your approach

No help needed for 2; if the other . .

Let’s work together to Devise industry-level responses Integrate disaster preparedness into the

very fabric of how firms operate Planning Training Audits Certification

Useful SL websites

www.lirneasia.net for early warning discussion document, lively discussion Emphasis on ICTs

www.vanguardfoundationlanka.org for disaster preparedness work with market emphasis

www.indi.ca on seven historical tsunamis