launching a free-to-play game: strategies, risks, and pitfalls
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Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls
Eric Benjamin SeufertVP of User Acquisition, RovioOwner, Mobile Dev Memo
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Presentation Structure
Presentation Structure
I. State of the Market / Current Challenges
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Advertising costs are high
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Advertising costs are high
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-Play game in 2015?
•Succeeding on the App Store is difficult by design.
App Store Discovery is Not Broken
January 2015
1.43MM apps
1.21MM apps
App Store Discovery is Not Broken
App Store Discovery is Not Broken
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJune 1, 2015
(6)
(2)
(2)
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJune 1, 2015
*
*
*
*
*
*
X
X
\
\
*X\
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary of the “Great Unbundling”
Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6)
(2)
(2)
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015
(6)
(2)
(2)
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015
*
*
b
*
*
X
\
*X\
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary of the “Great Unbundling”Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6)
(2)
(2)
*
b Brand integration
X
\
Existing Networks 6 5
Facebook 2 4
Google 2 1
Other 2 1
Viral Phenomena 2 2
Temporary Blips 2 2
Top Downloaded, iPhone / USJuly 29, 2015June 1, 2015
Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up…
Advertising vs. Existing Networks
Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks…
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Existing Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks……and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-promotion…
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Networks•Advertising costs are going up……because the largest developers are monetizing their networks……and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-promotion…•With a single title, you’re not competing with large developers on the basis of LTV > CPI (game quality), you’re competing on the basis of network size.
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
Positioning vs. Marketing
Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;
Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;•F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics;
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
1
2 3
4
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
?
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Full F2P Economy Games
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
“Gimmick” Games
Fast-follow Clones
Second-screen
Extension
Full F2P Economy Games
Lightweight graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
?
Positioning vs. Marketing
•Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;•F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics;•Traction without billions on the balance sheet has to come from product positioning.
Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:
Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”
Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”•“Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”
Product PositioningGreenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:•“Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable Market?”•“Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”•“Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”•“Can the essence of the game be communicated quickly and clearly?”
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
Assumption Challenge (Strawman)
Assumption Challenge (Strawman)A successful game launch will look like this on the Top Downloaded chart:
Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
No B
ala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Bala
nce
Sh
eet
Req
uir
em
en
t
Crossy Road
Developer Hipster Whale (AUS)Hipster Whale (AUS) / Yodo1
(CHI)
Release Date: November 19, 2014 January 10, 2015
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
4 2
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
4 8
Crossy Road
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#225
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 1
Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay depth to introduce true game economy. Once novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad monetization experiences rapid decay.
Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay depth to introduce true game economy. Once novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad monetization experiences rapid decay.
Pitfalls: Viral misfire. Game doesn’t take off due to lack of resonance and / or untenable depth.
Marvel: Contest of Champions
Marvel: Contest of Champions
Developer Kabam Kabam
Release Date: December 10, 2014 December 10, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
3 11
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
2 7
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#10
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 2
Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
Risks: Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with fans of the game type (match 3 / build and battle / etc.).
Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand recognition.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with fans of the game type (match 3 / build and battle / etc.).
Onerous IP licensing terms prevent profitability of marketing. Social media reach of IP owner is overestimated.
Cookie Jam
Cookie Jam
Developer SGN (USA) / NetEase (CHI) SGN (USA)
Release Date: February 27, 2014 March 29, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank Reached (US):
15 17
Days from Release to Top Downloaded Rank:
36 141
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#26
Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 3
Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
Risks: Inability to scale unit economics beyond a minimal threshold.
Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable unit economics.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Inability to scale unit economics beyond a minimal threshold.
Lack of organizational commitment to reach consumer “break through” on IP. Lack of analytical sophistication.
Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.
Take-aways
Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;
Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;
Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;•Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI;
Take-aways•Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;•Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;•Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI;•Don’t try to emulate a competitor’s title unless you know their financials.
Thank you, Priori Data!•Provided the data used in this presentation•Berlin-based app store analytics start-up•http://prioridata.com
Thanks!eric@mobiledevmemo.com@eric_seufert
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