lars-erik cederman and luc girardin center for comparative and international studies (cis) swiss...

Lars-Erik Cederman and Luc GirardinCenter for Comparative and International Studies (CIS)

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH)http://www.icr.ethz.ch/teaching/compmodels

Advanced Computational Modelingof Social Systems

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Agenda

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ABM & Traffic: History

• 1950er– James Lighthill, Univ. of Manchester

Traffic flow modeled as fluid– General Motors Research Group

modeled automobiles as individual units

• 1970er– Rainer Wiedemann, Univ. of Karlsruhe

explored complex psychological behavior

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ABM & Traffic: History

• 1990er– Kai Nagel and Michael Schreckenberg

Simple psychological rules:• The drivers have a preferred speed• The drivers keep a safe distance• There are random disturbances

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Critical density

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Hysteresis

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Example: Nagel-Schreckenberg Model

Start demonstration

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Activity-based demand

• Travel plans for each traveler based on typical activities

• AlbatrossTU Eindhoven & Ministerie van Verkeer & Waterstaat, NL

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Microscopic models2. Generation

• Microscopic, but with activity-based demand

• IlumassUnis Bamberg, Dortmund, Köln & Wuppertal, RWTH Aachen, DLR, Bundesministerium für Bildung & Forschung, Deutschland

• TransimsLos Alamos National Lab (UC) & IBM, USA

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Learning models

• The agents learn from their experience and adapt their travel plans

• BAB-NRWUni Duisburg/Essen, Ministerium fürVerkehr, Energie und Landesplanungdes Landes NRW, LandesbetriebStraßen NRW, Germany

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Example: UrbanSim

• UrbanSim is a simulation model for integrated planning and analysis

• Developed at the Univ. of Washington, Seattle

• Features decision-making by households, businesses, developers and governments

• http://www.urbansim.org/

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Example : ILUTE

• Integrated Land Use Transportation Modeling from Toronto

http://www.civ.utoronto.ca/sect/traeng/ilute/

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ILUTE continued

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ILUTE continued

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Alpine tourism

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Alpine tourism (cont.)

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PEDSIM