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Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI)
Land, livelihoods and housing Programme 2015-18 Working Paper The Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) is a centre of the Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST), committed to developing reputable and multidisciplinary research and public outreach activities in the fields of land administration, property, architecture, and spatial planning. The Land, Livelihoods and Housing Programme aims at deepening and expanding the focus on these three key issues in Namibia. This thematic approach seeks to reflect the wide-ranging skills exiting at the FNRSS, and was developed to guide ILMI’s activities during the 2014-18 period. The programme is organised in four aspects: institutional, environmental, fiscal and spatial processes.
May 2018 Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) 13 Storch Street Private Bag 13388 Windhoek Namibia T: +264 61 207 2483 F: +264 61 207 9483 E: ilmi@nust.na W: ilmi.nust.na
Working Paper No. 8 Assessment of
Housing Needs in Namibia
Kristofina Asino Department of Architecture and Spatial Planning
Namibia University of Science and Technology
Åse Christensen Department of Land and Property Sciences
Namibia University of Science and Technology
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The current paper derives from work conducted in the context of the Revision of the Mass Housing Development Programme (MHDP) that the Ministry of Urban and Rural Development (MURD) commissioned to the Integrated Land Management Institute (ILMI) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST). The paper contains only publicly-available information and was prepared for public dissemination of issues related to the work undertaken for the Ministry in the context of this project. More information about this project can be found on http://newmasshousing.nust.na/ The authors gratefully acknowledge the assistance and support provided by the research assistants who played an important role in gathering the data and information, which constitutes the foundation for the analysis. The research assistants are: Rymoth Mbeha, Memory Mudabeti, Charisma Shipena, and Herman Elvido.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS Kristofina Asino is a lecturer at the Department of Architecture and Spatial Sciences at NUST. She has national and international professional experience in the field of urban and regional planning. She previously worked as a Town Planner for both the Queensland’s Department of Transport and Main Roads in Australia and Municipality of Walvis Bay in Namibia. She holds a BSc in Community and Regional Planning from Iowa State University, a Master in Urban and Regional Planning from the University of the Free State, and is currently a PhD candidate at the University of Pretoria. She is also an active member of the Namibia Institute of Town and Regional Planners. Her areas of expertise within the field of urban and regional planning are broad and include housing. She can be reached at kasino@nust.na Åse Christensen is a lecturer at the Department of Land and Property Sciences. She holds an MSc in Surveying, Planning and Land Management from Aalborg University in Denmark. She has worked in the field of tenure security, slum upgrading, socio-economic analyses, and has worked in the development of the Flexible Land Tenure System (FLTS) in Namibia. She has coordinated projects in collaboration with various international organisations, such as the World Bank (WB), Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), Norwegian Government (StatensKartverk - Norad). She has ample experience working internationally in development projects as well as a consultant for local and international organisations. She can be reached at achristensen@nust.na ____© 2018 ILMI – Integrated Land Management Institute ISBN 978-99916-55-69-7 ILMI is a research centre at the Faculty of Natural Resources and Spatial Sciences (FNRSS) at the Namibia University of Science and Technology (NUST). Views expressed by the authors are not to be attributed to any of these institutions. Please visit our website for details on ILMI’s publications policy: http://ilmi.nust.na
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DEFINITIONSTheDefinitionsstatedbelowareaspertheNamibianStatisticsAgency2001PopulationandHousingCensusReport(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.85)ifnototherwisereferenced.
TERM DEFINITIONCommercialorIndustrialFlats:
Livingpremises,whicharealsousedforcommercialorindustrialpurposes.Thatisahousingunitthatisalsopartlyusedasabottlestoreorasupermarket,oraworkshop,iscategorisedasacommercialorindustrialflats.
DetachedHouse: Ahouseonitsownandnotattachedtoanotherhouse.
EconomicallyActivePopulation:
Theeconomicallyactivepopulationiscomposedofemployedandunemployedpersonsintheworkingage(15yearsandabove),alsoreferredtoasthelabourforce(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012b,p.13).
Flat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinabuildingwithoneormorefloors,andwithcommonentrances.Flatisusedinterchangeablywith“apartment.”
GeneralValuationRoll:
Alegaldocumentthatconsistsofpropertyinformationofallrateablepropertieswithintheboundariesofamunicipality(CityofJohannesburg,2007,p.1).InNamibiaitisproducedaccordingtolegislationatleastevery5years(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,1992,para.66(2))containsi.e.nameofowner,size,extentandtotalvalueoftheproperty.Valueoflandandvalueofimprovementsareshownseparately(GovernmentoftheRepublicofNamibia,1992,para.67(1)(d)).
GuestFlat: Aself-containedlivingpremiseinthesamecompoundasadetachedhouse.
Household: Apersonorgroupofpersons,relatedorunrelated,livingtogetherinthesamehouse/dwelling.Theyhavethesamecateringarrangementsandareanswerabletothesamehouseholdhead(CentralBureauofStatistics,NationalPlanningCommission,2003,p.81).
Housing: Anyshelter,lodgingordwellinghouseordwellingunit,residentialland,etc.
HousingBacklog: Ahousingbacklogistheunderprovisioninhousingthathasaccumulatedagainstpreviouslyplannedtargets(CornwallCouncil,2013,p.1)orunfulfilleddemand.
ImprovisedHousing: Housingunitsbuiltofdiscardedmaterials(suchascardboards,plasticsheeting,flattenedemptytins,etc.),corrugatedironroofingsheets,derelictvehiclespartsandcarts,clayormud,cowdung,etc.;butthatarenottraditionalhousing.
MobileHomes: Livingpremisesthatbemovedortransferredortransported,suchastents,caravans,etc.
Semi-DetachedHouse: Ahousethatisattachedtoanotherbutwithitsownfacilitiesandaseparateentrance.
SingleQuarters: Aroomorasetofroomswithsharedtoiletandkitchenfacilities,andcommonlyleasedbytheoccupantsorresidents.
SuitableHousing:
Housingthatisfitforhumanhabitation(suchasdetachedhouse,semi-detachedhouse,flats,guestflats,commercialorindustrialflats,traditionaldwelling,etc.Suitablehousingexcludessinglequarters,improvisedhousing(suchasshacks)andanyothertypesofhousingnotsuitableforhumanhabitation.
TraditionalDwelling: Housingthatcomprisesofahutoragroupofhutswalledorun-walledwithsticks,poleswithorwithoutthatchorgrass.
UnsuitableHousing: Housingthatisnotfitforhumanhabitationsuchasshacks.
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1. IntroductionTheneedforurbanhousingdependshighlyonthenumberofpeoplelivingintownsandcities.Globallythenumberofpeopleisincreasingrapidlyanditisestimatedthatby2030thepopulationwillbearound9billionrisingto11billionby2050(Rizvi,2016).Atthesametimeurbanisationratesarehighanditisexpectedthattwo-thirdsoftheglobalpopulationwillbelivinginurbanareasin2030andofwhicharound50%“willbelivinginpoverty,insubstandardhousingorinslums”(Rizvi,2016)duetoashortageintheprovisionofaffordableservicedland.ThisglobaltrendisalsonoticeableinmanyAfricancountrieswhicharefacingmassiveurbanisationandthusputtingevenmorepressureonthehousingdemandwhichcomesinadditiontothealreadyexistinghighbacklogonaffordablehousing.ThisisalsothescenarioinseveralurbanareasinNamibia.AccordingtotheNamibiaNationalHousingPolicy(NHP),housingisoneoftheNamibiangovernment’sdevelopmentpriorities(MinistryofRegionalandLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,2009,p.4).TheNHPfurtheroutlinesthatitistheroleofthegovernmenttoensureaninclusivedevelopmentprocessandtomakeprovisionforpeopleexcludedfromtheformalhousingmarkettoaccessland,housingandservices.TheNHPacknowledgesthatempowermentoflocalruralandurbancommunitiesaswellasindividualsdependsonpropertyrightsandpeople’saccesstocreditbymakinguseoftheirpropertiesassets.TheNHPfurthersuggestsanintegratedapproachtohousing,includingbothruralandurbandevelopment,whileaimingat“creatingsustainablehumansettlements”(MinistryofRegionalandLocalGovernment,HousingandRuralDevelopment,1991,p.4).Thevisionisthat“[b]y2017,Namibiawillhavearobustandeffectivehousingdeliveryprogrammewhereaffordabilityisthekeyfeatureoftheprogramme;andthat60%ofhouseholdswillbelivinginmodernhouses”(OfficeofthePresident,NationalPlanningCommission,2012,p.xvi).Despitenationalintentionstoenhancehousinginfrastructure,thenumberofpeoplelivinginsubstandardhousingininformalsettlementsisonanincrease,duetovariouschallenges.ThemainchallengesintheNamibianhousingsectorareexorbitantpricespartlyduetomismatchesbetweenthedemandforandthesupplyofhousing.AccordingtotheNationalPlanningCommission(NPC),therehasalsobeenalackofgovernmentalfundingforhousingprogrammesforthelow-incomeandmiddle-incomegroups.AstudycarriedoutbytheBankofNamibia(BoN)in2011concludedthataround70%ofNamibiansareexcludedfromcreditaccessandthus“cannotaccessurbanfreeholdlanddueto,amongstothers,limiteddisposableincome,povertyandexclusionfromconventionalhomeloanfacilities”(BankofNamibia,2011,p.19).Country-wide,thereareissueswiththeprovisionofsufficientland,andparticularlyinurbanareasthereisashortageofaffordableland.Theurbanpopulationhasincreasedfrom28%in1991to42%in2011(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,p.38)andiscurrentlyestimatedtobearound50%.AccordingtoastudybytheBankofNamibiathecountryhadahousingbacklogof300,000unitsin2011withanincreasefrom80,000unitsin2007(BankofNamibia,2011,p.12).Theincreaseinthehousingbacklogisamplifiedbythefactthatthereisadecreaseintheaveragehouseholdsizenationwide,from5.1in2001to4.4in2011(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a,pp.39&44).Thedecreaseinhouseholdsizecombinedwiththeincreaseinpopulationputsmorepressureonthedemandforhousing.Notwithstandingthedecreaseinaveragehouseholdsize,themainshortageofhousingisamongsthouseholdsearninglessthanNAD5,000permonth(Chiripanhura&Jauch,2015,p.9).ThehousingrelatedissuesoutlinedabovecallforananalysisofthecurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibiainordertoestimatethefutureneedforhousing.However,currentlythereisnomethodologicalapproachthatisbeingusedbylocalorregionalornationalgovernmentsinNamibiatoestimatethenumberofhouseholdsrequiredoveracertainperiod.Somelocalauthoritiesbasedthehousingneedsontheapplicationstheyreceiveforresidentialland.However,thisisnotgoodenoughsincethenumberofcurrentapplicantsdoesnotincludetheprojectedhouseholdswhohavenotyetappliedforresidentialland(orhousing).Hence,thisreportanalysesthehousingassessmentmethodologicalapproachesusedbyotherauthoritiesoutsideNamibiaandappliesoneofthoseapproachestoassessthehousingneedsinNamibia.
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2 HousingNeedsAssessment
2.1 HousingNeedsDefinitionTherearevariousdefinitionsofhousingneeds.AccordingtoHeath(2014),housingneedscanbedefinedasanormativenotion,whichfocusesongroupsofpeoplewithnoaccesstohousingofacceptablestandards.Heathdefinedhousingneedsas“thenumberofhouseholdsthatdonothaveaccesstoaccommodationthatmeetscertainnormativestandards”.
2.2 HousingNeedsCategoriesDespitethedifferentdefinitionsthatexist,housingneedscanbecategorisedintotwogroups,beingneed-as-aspirationandneed-as-demand(PeterBrettAssociates,2015).Housingneed-as-aspirationdependsonindividualpreferences,anditisthusanindividual’sbehaviouralresponsetohisorherhousingsituation(Steele,2010andOpoko,Ibem&Adeyemi,2015).Thisisattainedbyrelocatingoralteringexistinghousingenvironment.Thehousingneed-as-aspirationcreatesamuchlargernumberofhousingneedscomparedtothehousingneed-as-demand.However,housingneed-as-aspirationhassomepracticalimplicationsforplantargetsandlandallocations.Ontheotherhand,housingneed-as-demandreferstothe“scaleandmixofhousingandtherangeoftenuresthatislikelytobeneededinthehousingmarketareaovertheplanperiod[which]caterforthehousingdemand[…]andidentifythescaleofhousingsupply”(PeterBrettAssociates,2015,p.41).Hence,inthecontextofthisreport,thehousingneedassessmentfocusesonthehousingneed-as-demand.
2.3 HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproachesTherearevariousmethodologicalapproachesforassessinghousingneedsinacountry,regionorlocalarea.Determinationofthehousingneedsisthereforenotaprecisescience,asthereisnospecificapproachthatcandeliveradefinitiveanswer.Despitenumerousmethodologicalapproaches,thissectionreviewstwoapproachesthatcanpotentiallybeusedtoestablishhousingneedsinNamibia.TheseareLeung’sNeed-GapAnalysisandtheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA).
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2.3.1 Leung’sNeed-GapAnalysisThehousingneedsassessmentcanbeundertakeninaccordancewithusingtheNeedGapAnalysisapproach.AccordingtoLeung(2003),aNeed-GapAnalysisisanexercisethatdetermineshowmuchlandisrequiredtoaccommodatehousingneedsinacityortown.SuchanalysisistobecarriedoutbyfollowingthestepsoutlinedinFigure1below:
Figure1:Need-GapAnalysisSource:Leung,2003.
1. ESTABLISH HOUSING NEED FOR SOME FUTURE PERIOD(a) Estimate future population & its demographic profile.
(b) Translate population into number of households by household size & type.(c) Translate the number of households into number of dwelling units by dwelling
size and housing type.
2. EXAMINE THE EXISTING HOUSING STOCK IN TERMS OF HOUSING TYPE & NUMBER
That is, determine the number of existing dwelling units, by size and type.
3. COMPARE THE FINDINGS OF HOUSING NEEDS AND HOUSING STOCK TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF NEW DWELLINGS NEEDED
Calculate the Basic Need-Gap: 1(c) – 2
4. CALCULATE THE REASONABLE NEED-GAP(a) Basic Need plus obsolescence, demolition, abandonment, renewal, invasions by
other uses, loss due to fire and other catastrophes, and allowance for vacancies.(b) Calculate the Need for new housing construction: Need-Gap minus housing units
created by conversion and rehabilitation.
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2.3.2 UnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessmentTheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA)isconductedbyfollowingthefourstagesoutlinedbyFigure2(DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007).
Figure2:HousingNeedsAssessmentMethodologicalApproachSource:DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment,2007.
STAGE 1: DETERMINE THE CURRENT
HOUSING NEED:• Determine the number of
households currently in need of housing.
• Determine the number of households lacking suitable housing and cannot afford such housing in the market sector.
STAGE 2: DETERMINE CURRENT
AND FUTURE HOUSING SUPPLY
STAGE 3: DETERMINE THE FUTURE HOUSING NEED OVER A
PLAN PERIOD:• Determine current and
future need, and subtract it from current and future housing supply.
STAGE 4: DETERMINE ANNUAL HOUSING NEED PER
PERIOD:• Converting total housing
need to annual flow.
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3 MethodologicalApproachforHousingNeedsAssessmentinNamibiaThereisnospecificmethodologicalapproachthatisbeingusedbygovernmentsatlocal,regionalornationallevelsinNamibiatodeterminehousingneeds.Inviewofthis,thisstudyutilisestheU.K.’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’shousingneedsassessmentsequentialapproachasoutlinedinSection2ofthisreport,bydetermining:currenthousingneedsinNamibia;currentandfuturehousingsupplyinNamibia;futurehousingneedovertheplanperiodinNamibia;andannualhousingneedsperperiodinNamibia.Leung’sNeed-GapAnalysiscouldnotbeusedinassessingthehousingneedsinNamibia,duetolimiteddatathatisrequiredtofactorintotheanalysis.
3.1 Stage1:DeterminetheCurrentHousingNeedsThisstageinvolvesdeterminingtheexistingnumberofthehouseholdswhoarecurrentlyinneedofhousing.Thesearethehouseholdswhoeitherresideinunsuitablehousingand/orwhocannotaffordhousingintheformalmarketsector.Inthecontextofthisreport,unsuitablehousingisdefinedbythefollowingcriteria:
•ImprovisedHousing(includesshacks);•MobileHousingsuchascaravanortent;•SingleQuarterHousing,and•Othertypesofhousingnotmentionedabove(excludingdetachedandsemi-detachedhousing,townhouses,flats,flatsinacommercialorindustrialarea).
3.2 Stage2:DeterminetheCurrentandFutureHousingSupply(a) CurrentHousingSupplyThisstageestablishesthecurrentandfuturesupplyofhousing.Thecurrenthousingsupplyisdeterminedfromthecurrentresidentialvacanterven(asperthelatestGeneralEvaluationRollsfromlocalauthorities).Inparticular,thenumberofvacanterventhatarezonedas“SingleResidential”or“Residential”or“GeneralResidential”or“Residential2andabove”havebeencompiledtodeterminethecurrentavailablevacantresidentialerven.Itisimportanttotakeintoaccountthedensityzoningof“GeneralResidential”or“Residential2andabove”zonederven,becausethesetypesofervencaterforhigh-densityresidentialdevelopmentsandthuscanaccommodatemorethanonedwellingunit.However,thedensityzoningsforthehighresidentialdensityervencouldnotbeobtainedfromlocalauthorities.Intheabsenceofthedensityzoningsoftheaforementionederven,intermsofthisstudy,suchervenwereevaluatedasstandarderventhatcanonlyaccommodateonedwelling.(b) FutureHousingSupplyThefuturehousingsupplywasderivedfromthetotalnumberofavailableresidentialland(servicedandun-serviced).ThetotalnumberofavailableresidentiallandparcelswasobtainedfromsomelocalauthoritiesandfromtheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassiveUrbanLandServicingProjectReport(DraftImplementationPlan)dated2016.
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Ofthoseservicedorun-servicedresidentiallandparcelsthatmakeupthe“futurehousingsupply”,someofthelandparcelshave:
•onlybeenapprovedbyCouncil,butnotapprovedbytheMinisterofUrbanandRuralDevelopment(throughtheNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoardand/ortheTownshipsBoard);•beenapprovedbythetwoaforesaidboards,butnotyetbeensurveyed;•beensurveyedbutnotyetregisteredbytheRegistrarofDeeds;and•gonethroughalltheplanningprocesses,wherebyapprovalhavebeengrantedbyCouncilsandthetwoboards,thesurveyinghasbeenconcludedanddiagramsorgeneralplanshavebeenapprovedbytheSurveyorGeneralandthepropertieshavebeenregisteredintheDeedsOffice.
(c) OverallHousingSupplyThecurrentandfuturehousingsupply,asdeterminedinsections(a)and(b)above,werethereafteraddedtogethertogettheoverallhousingsupplyperregion.Althoughtheoverallhousingsupplyisforallregions,notalllocalauthoritiesorvillagecouncilshaveavailabledataontheircurrentandfuturehousingsupply.Furthermore,theruralareasthatarenotyetproclaimedasvillagecouncilsorsettlementsareexcludedfromthecalculationsduetotheunavailabilityofdata.
3.3 Stage3:DeterminetheFutureHousingNeedsOverthePlanPeriodThedeterminationofthefuturehousingneedsovertheplanperiodinvolvesprojectingthetotalnumberofneededhousingovertheplanperiod.Inprojectingthefuturehousingneeds,threeperiodsareused,namely:
• ShortTerm: 2017–2020;• MediumTerm: 2021–2030;and• LongTerm: 2031–2041.
Theyear2011isusedasabaseyear,becausethehouseholddatausedisbasedonthe2011CensusData.The“currenthousingneeds”identifiedinStage1isaddedtothe“futurehousing”needsforthe2017-2020periodtodeterminetheactualhousingneedsforthe2017-2020period.
3.4 Stage4:DeterminetheAnnualHousingNeedsperPeriodThetotalhousingneedsfortheplanperiodisconvertedintoanannualflowperperiod.
4. ResultsofHousingNeedsAssessmentinNamibiaTheresultsoftheassessmentofhousingneedsinNamibiaareoutlinedbytheproceedingsections.ThiswasundertakenusingthesecondarydataderivedfromtheNamibiaStatisticsAgency’scensusdata,theGeneralValuationRollsofvariouslocalauthoritiesinNamibia,aswellasfromtheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassiveUrbanLandServicingProjectReportdated2016,
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4.1 CurrentHousingNeedsinNamibiaInordertoestablishthe“currenthousingneeds”itisfirstvitaltodeterminetheexistingandprojectednumberofhouseholds,andhouseholdtypesinNamibia.Ahouseholdisdefinedasagroupofrelatedorunrelatedpeoplewholiveinthesamedwellingunitandsharecateringarrangements(NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a).
4.1.1 ExistingandProjectedNumberofHouseholdsinNamibiaThenumberofhouseholdsperregioninNamibiain2001and2011werederivedfromthe2011Census.Ontheotherhand,thenumberofprojectedhouseholdsfrom2016-2041iscalculatedusingthegeometricgrowthprojectionmethodusingtheyear2011asthebaseyear.Ageometricchangemethodisappropriatewhenitisexpectedthat‘’apopulationwillchangebythesamepercentagerateoveragivenincrementoftimeinthefutureasduringthebaseperiod”(George,Smith,Swanson,&Tayman,2004,p.566).Geometricprojectionscanbecalculatedusingthefollowingformula: Pn=Po(1+r) Where:
Poisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsin2011.tistheperiodoftime,inyears(being9,19&30yearsfor2020,2030&2041respectively).ristheannualrateofincrease.Pnisthetotalnumberofhouseholdsattheendofeachperiod(2020,2030or2041).
Table1showsthattheKhomasRegionhasthehighestnumberofhouseholds,withabout121,700householdsin2017.ThesecondandthirdregionswiththehighestnumberofhouseholdsareErongoandOmusatiRegionswithover50,000householdsin2017.
Table1:NumberofTotalHouseholdsperRegion
Region 2001* 2011* 2016** 2017** Omaheke 12,590 16,174 9,551 19141
Hardap 15,039 19,307 22,207 22837 Zambezi 16,839 21,283 24,244 24883
Kavango East 15,406 18,011 19,586 19917 Kavango West 15,061 18,730 21,125 21640
ǁKaras 15,481 20,988 24,996 25885 Ohangwena 35,958 43,723 48,652 49703
Oshana 29,557 37,284 42,419 43528 Omusati 38,202 46,698 52,127 53286 Kunene 12,489 18,495 23,391 24516
Otjozondjupa 25,338 33,192 38,665 39864 Oshikoto 28,419 37,400 43,695 45076 Erongo 27,496 44,116 59,161 62737 Khomas 58,580 89,438 115,610 121700 TOTAL 346455 464839 545430 574714
*Source:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.
**Source:GeometricGrowthProjectionCalculation.
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Thenumberofhouseholdsisexpectedtoincreaseinallregionsacrossthecountry.AsshownbyFigure3,itisprojectedthatbytheyear2020,thenumberofhouseholdsinKhomasandErongoRegionswillincreasethemostcomparedtootherregions.In2030,KhomasRegionisexpectedtohavethelargestnumberofhouseholdsinNamibiafollowedbyErongoRegion.
Figure3:ProjectedNumberofHouseholdsRegionallyandNationally
GeometricGrowthProjectionFormula:Pn=Po(1+r)Thehouseholdprojectionsfor2020,2030and2041varywidelyacrossthecountry.Thevarianceinprojectionscanbeattributedtomigrationandotherfactors.By2041theKhomas,ErongoandOshikotoRegionswillhavethehighestnumberofhouseholds,whiletheZambezi,OmahekeandHardapRegionsareprojectedtohavetheleastnumberofhouseholds.
4.1.2 HouseholdTypesinNamibiaThissectionfocusesonthecurrenthouseholdtypesinNamibia,asstatedinthe“Definitions”sectionofthisreport.TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a;2012b),identifiedthefollowingtypesofhousinginNamibia:• Detachedhouse;• Semi-detached/townhouse;• Apartment/flat,guestflat;• Flatincommercial/industrial;• Mobilehome(caravan,tent);• Singlequarters;• Traditionaldwelling;and• Improvisedhousingunit(shack).AccordingtotheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(2012a),andasshownbyFigure4,detachedandsemi-detachedhousing,andtraditionalhousingmakeup38%ofallhouseholdsinNamibia.
Omaheke Hardap Zambezi Kavango
EastKavango
West //Kharas Ohangwena Oshana Omusati Kunene Otjozon
djupaOshikot
o Erongo Khomas Total/Namibia
2017 19141 22837 24883 19917 21640 25885 49703 43528 53286 24516 39864 45076 62737 121700 574714
2020 20822 24837 26906 20945 23260 28747 52993 47032 56921 28226 43687 49486 74815 141964 640640
2030 27570 32857 34912 24768 29590 40776 65615 60879 70925 45147 59282 67547 134546 237207 931622
2041 37543 44701 46496 29785 38559 59895 82998 80864 90340 75686 82938 95113 256592 417227 1438736
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
Proj
ecte
d N
umbe
r of
Hou
seho
lds
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Figure4:HouseholdTypesinNamibiaSource:NamibiaStatisticsAgency,2012a.
Traditionalhousingismostcommoninruralareas.Traditionaldwellingsaremostlyusedinthenorthernregions,suchasOmusati,OhangwenaandKavangoRegions.Thenumberoftraditionalhousingisalsohigherbecauseitisdeemedmoreaffordablewhenitcomestobuildingcosts.Peoplemostlyusematerialsavailableintheirvicinity,suchasclaysoilforthewalls,sticksforfoundation,hayorgrassfortheroof,dependingontheareainwhichtheylive.Itshouldalsobepointedoutthat,nowadayssomeinhabitantsinruralareasarebuildinghousesusingdurablematerialssuchascementbricks(forthewalls),cementconcretefloors,ironsheets/tilesroofslikeinurbanareas.Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingmakesupthesecondmostcommontypeofhousing,makingup44%ofthehouseholdsinNamibia.Detachedandsemi-detachedhousingarethemostpopularkindofhousinginurbanareas.Improvisedhousinghasthethirdlargestshare,being18%oftheexistinghouseholds.Improvisedhousingisfoundinallurbanareas.Thistypeofhousingemergedduetovariouscircumstances.OneofthereasonsistheslowpaceoflanddeliveryinNamibia,andsubsequentlyunavailabilityofservicedresidentialland.Anotherreasonisunaffordabilityofhousingintheformalmarketsector,whichleadpeopletoerectshacksonmainlymunicipalland.Inthecontextofthisassessment,thehouseholdtypesidentifiedbytheNamibianStaticsAgencyareconsolidatedintotwocategories,being:
•SuitableHousing–comprisingofdetachedhousing,semi-detachedhousing,townhouses,traditionalhousingandflats(includingflatsincommercialorindustrialareasandguestflats)housingtypes;and•UnsuitableHousing-comprisingofvarioushousingtypessuchasimprovisedhousing(e.g.shacks),singlequartersandmobilehousing(caravanortentedhousing),andanyothertypesofhousingnotlistedunderSuitableHousing.
SuitableandUnsuitableHousingTypesareshownbyFigure5.
Detached and Semi-Detached
38%
Flats6%
Traditional Housing
38%
Improvised Housing
18%
Others0%
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Figure5:HousingCategoriesandTypes
Thehousingthatiscategorisedas“UnsuitableHousing”includeshousingsuchasshacks.Table2showsthepercentageofunsuitablehousingonaregionallevelfrom2001to2016inNamibia,basedonthe2001and2011censusdata.The2016datawasderivedfromgeometricprojectioncalculations.
Suitable Housing
Detached Housing
Semi-Detached Housing
Townhouses
Traditional Housing – traditional houses or homesteads
Flats (including flats in commercial or industrial areas and guest flats)
Unsuitable Housing(Current Need)
Improvised Housing (shacks)
Mobile homes (caravan or tented housing)
Single quarters & shacks
Others – Any other types of housing not listed
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Table2:UnsuitableHouseholdsperRegioninNamibiafrom2001-2016
PERCENTAGE OF UNSUITABLE HOUSEHOLDS
NUMBER OF UNSUITABLE HOUSEHOLDS
REGION 2001* 2011* 2016** 2016 Erongo 27.0% 35.3% 41.1% 24,297 Hardap 20.2% 26.3% 30.5% 6,777 ǁKaras 21.9% 30.2% 36.4% 9,092
Kavango East 23.3% 32.1% 38.6% 7,568 Kavango West 18.6% 15.2% 13.9% 2,928
Khomas 29.4% 32.9% 34.9% 40,354 Kunene 9.8% 12.7% 14.7% 3,602
Ohangwena 4.2% 6.6% 8.7% 4,240 Omaheke 19.0% 21.5% 23.0% 2,192 Omusati 3.4% 2.7% 2.4% 1,268 Oshana 7.8% 10.4% 12.3% 5,198
Oshikoto 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 2,884 Otjozondjupa 19.0% 22.6% 24.8% 9,598
Zambezi 4.0% 15.2% 52.2% 12,662 TOTAL 134,676
*Source:DatafromNamibiaStatisticsAgency,2001and2011.
**Source:GeometricProjectionCalculationusing2001and2011censusdata.InaccordancewithTable2,theZambezi,Erongo,KavangoEast,ǁKarasKhomasandHardapRegionsaretheregionswiththehighestpercentageofunsuitablehouseholds(makingupover30%ofthetotalhouseholds),asof2016.Omusati,OshikotoandOhangwenaRegionshavethelowestpercentageofunsuitablehouseholds,beinglessthan10%ofthetotalhouseholds.Thenumberofunsuitablehousingfor2016revealsthehousingneedsfor2016.
4.1.3 PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020PeriodThehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod(beingfrom2017to2020)inNamibiawasdeterminedbyaddingthenumberofhouseholdsneeded(orunsuitablehouseholdsdepictedbyTable2)fortheyear2016totheprojectednumberofhouseholdsneededforthe2017-2020period.Table3andFigure6showthehousingneedsforthecurrentperiod.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 13
Table3:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020Period
REGION 2016 HOUSING NEEDS
2017-2020 PROJECTED
HOUSEHOLDS
2017-2020 HOUSING
NEEDS Erongo 24,297 15,654 39,951 Hardap 6,777 2,630 9,407 ǁKaras 9,092 3,751 12,843
Kavango East 7,568 1,359 8,926 Kavango West 2,928 2,135 5,063
Khomas 40,354 26,353 66,708 Kunene 3,602 4,835 8,437
Ohangwena 4,240 4,341 8,580 Omaheke 2,192 11,272 13,464 Omusati 1,268 4,794 6,063 Oshana 5,198 4,613 9,810
Oshikoto 2,884 5,791 8,675 Otjozondjupa 9,598 5,022 14,620
Zambezi 12,662 2,662 15,324 TOTAL 134,676 95,211 227,871
Figure6:PreliminaryHousingNeedsinNamibiafor2017-2020PeriodAsindicatedinFigure6,Khomas,ErongoandZambeziRegionsarethetopthreeregionswiththehighestnumberofhousingneeds.Ontheotherhand,KavangoWest,OmusatiandKuneneRegionsaretheregionswithlesshousingneedsduringthisshort-termperiod(2017-2020).
5063
6063 84
37
8580
8675
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9407
9810 12
843
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aras
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as
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ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 14
4.2 CurrentandFutureLandResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
4.2.1 Available(Current)ResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThecurrentresidentiallandsupplywasdeterminedusingtheGeneralValuationRolldatafromvariouslocalauthorities.Inparticular,thenumberofvacantSingleResidential(orResidential)andGeneralResidential(orResidential2or3)wascompiledfromthelocalauthorities’GeneralValuationRoll,todeterminethecurrentsupplyofresidentialland.Figure7belowshowstheavailablehousingsupplyineightofthefourteenregionsinNamibia.
Figure7:Available(Current)HousingSupplyinEightRegionsinNamibiaSource:GeneralValuationRollsofVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.
TheresearcherscouldnotobtaintheGeneralValuationRollfromsomelocalauthorities.Hence,thedataanalysedisonlybasedontheinformationobtainedfromErongoRegion(fromHentiesBayandUsakostowns),Hardap(Gochas),Omusati(Tsanditown),OshikotoRegion(OmuthiyaandTsumebtowns),OshanaRegion(Ondangwa,OngwedivaandOshakatitowns),//KarasRegion(Keetmanshooptown),Otjozondjupa(Grootfonteintown),andZambeziRegion(KatimaMulilotown).AsperFigure7,theOshikotoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofvacantresidentialerven.ThisisalsoevidentinFigure8,whichdisplaysthespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialland(orhousing).
60 90 691 11
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ap
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rven
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 15
Figure8:SpatialDistributionofAvailableHousingSupplyinNamibiaThetotalavailablevacantresidentiallandparcelsasobtainedfromtheeightregionsis9,899.Thisamountwillcontributelesstowardsthealleviationofthehousingbacklogof300,000asstipulatedbytheBankofNamibia(2011).
4.2.2 FutureResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThefutureresidentiallandsupplyisdeterminedusingthedataonun-servicedresidentialerventhattheresearchers,asmentioned,obtainedfromsomelocalauthoritiesinNamibiain2017.Additionally,thefuturelandsupplywasalsoderivedfromthedatacontainedintheMinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment’sMassUrbanLandServicingProject(MULSP):DraftImplementationPlan.SomeofthefutureresidentialplotshavenotyetbeenapprovedbyNamibiaPlanningAdvisoryBoard(NAMPAB)orTownshipsBoard;somehavebeenapprovedbutnotyetsurveyed;andsomehavebeenapprovedbythesaidboardsandsurveyed.Nevertheless,theinformationiscrucialindeterminingthepotentialnumberoferventhatcanbeavailedforhousingdevelopmentsinvariousregionsinNamibia.Figure9showsthetotalnumberoffuturelandsupply(i.e.futureresidentialerven)perregion.
NUMBER OF RESERVE ERVEN IN NAMIBIAFuture Reserve Erven
LegendFuture Reserve Erven
0 - 1247
1248 - 3991
3992 - 12192
12193 - 19173
Current Vacant Erven
Total Reserve Land Supply
LegendCurrent Vacant Erven
0 - 60
61 - 691
692 - 1379
1380 - 2197
2198 - 2262
LegendTotal Reserve Land Supply
0 - 1247
1248 - 3631
3632 - 7473
7474 - 12192
12193 - 20552
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Reserve Erven In Graph
LegendNamibia
10 000
Future Reserve Erven
Current Vacant Erven
Total Reserve Land Supply
Kavango East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Osh
ana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 16
Figure9:FutureHousing(ResidentialLand)SupplyinNamibiaSource:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016.
TheErongoRegionhasthehighestnumberoffutureresidentialplots,withatotalof19,173residentialplots.TheKhomasRegionisthesecondhighest,with12,192futureresidentialplots.TheKavangoEastandWest,andHardapRegionshavetheleastnumberofpotentialresidentialerven.NodatawasobtainedfromtheKuneneRegion.
0 949
1247 22
06
2248 2355
2408
2458 39
91
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81
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1917
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ngo
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ngo
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dap
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ngw
ena
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ahek
e
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bezi
//Kh
aras
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ikot
o
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zond
jupa
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usat
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ana
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as
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go
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L
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of F
utur
e Re
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en
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 17
4.2.3 OverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibiaThetotallandsupplyacrossthenationisillustratedbyTable4.
REGION FUTURE
RESIDENTIAL ERVEN**
CURRENT AVAILABLE
RESIDENTIAL ERVEN*
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL
LAND SUPPLY***
Kunene 0 0 0 Kavango East 949 0 949 Kavango West 1247 0 1247
Ohangwena 2248 0 2248 Hardap 2206 90 2296
Omaheke 2355 0 2355 ǁKaras 2458 1173 3631
Zambezi 2408 2197 4605 Oshikoto 3991 2262 6253
Otjozondjupa 6052 691 6743 Omusati 7413 60 7473 Oshana 8181 2137 10318 Khomas 12192 0 12192 Erongo 19173 1379 20552 TOTAL 70873 9989 80862
Table4:TotalResidentialLand(Housing)SupplyinNamibia
*Source:GeneralValuationRollfromLocalAuthorities.**Source:MinistryofUrbanandRuralDevelopment,2016andVariousLocalAuthoritiesinNamibia.***TotalResidentialLandSupply=CurrentAvailableResidentialErven+FutureResidentialErven.
TheErongoRegionistheregionwiththehighestnumberofthetotalnumberofresidentialland(combinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven).WindhoekandOshanaRegionsarethesecondandthirdhighestrespectively.TheKavangoEastandWest,andOhangwenaRegionsaretheregionswithlessnumberofcombinedcurrentandfutureresidentialerven.TheKuneneRegionwasnotassessedasnodatawasavailableandtheproposednumberofresidentialervenwasobtainedfromthisregion.ThespatialdistributionofavailableresidentialervenisindicatedbyFigure10.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 18
Figure10:SpatialDistributionofOverallResidentialLandSupplyinNamibia
4.3 DeterminingtheTotalFutureHousingNeedsinNamibia
4.3.1 Short-TermPeriodHousingNeeds:2017-2020Thefuturehousingneedsfortheshort-term(2017-2020)periodwasdeterminedbyapplyingthefollowingformula:
2017-2020 Final
Housing Needs =
2017-2020 Preliminary
Housing Needs -
Total Housing (Residential Land)
Supply Table5showstheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaforesaidformula.
TOTAL RESERVE LAND SUPPLY IN 2017
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
Oshikoto
OmusatiKavango East
Kavango West
Zambezi
Oshana
Ohangwena
LegendTotal Reserve Land Supply
0 - 1247
1248 - 3631
3632 - 7473
7474 - 12192
12193 - 20552
®
1:5 000 000
0 200 400100 Km
Kavango East
Kavango West Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 19
Table5:FinalHousingNeedsfor2017-2020Period
REGION 2017
TOTAL LAND SUPPLY
2017-2020 PRELIMINARY
HOUSING NEEDS
2017-2020 FINAL
HOUSING NEEDS
Omusati 7,473 6,063 -1,410 Oshana 10,318 9,810 -508
Oshikoto 6,253 8,675 2,422
Kavango West 1,247 5,063 3,816 Ohangwena 2,248 8,580 6,332
Hardap 2,296 9,407 7,111
Otjozondjupa 6,743 14,620 7,877 Kavango East 949 8,926 7,977
Kunene 0 8,437 8,437
ǁKaras 3,631 12,843 9,212 Zambezi 4,605 15,324 10,719
Omaheke 2,355 13,464 11,109
Erongo 20,552 39,951 19,399 Khomas 12,192 66,708 54,516
TOTAL 80,862 227,871 147,009
Accordingtothesecalculations,theOmusatiandOshanaRegionsappearascurrentlyoversuppliedwithhousing.OntheotherhandtheKhomasRegionneedsover50,000housesduringtheshortterm-period.
4.3.2 Medium&LongTermsPeriods:2021-2030and2031-2041Thefuturehousingneedsthemedium-andlong-termperiodswasdeterminedasfollows:
2021-2030 Housing Need =
2030 Housing
Projection -
2020 Housing
Projection
2031-2041 Housing Need =
2041 Housing
Projection -
2030 Housing
Projection TheresultsofthecalculationaspertheaboveformulasareshownbyTable6.
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 20
Table6:HousingNeedsforMediumandLongTermPeriods
Households Projections Medium Term
Long Term
Region 2020 2030 2041 2021-2030 2031-2041 Omaheke 20,822 27,570 37,543 6,747 9,973
Hardap 24,837 32,857 44,701 8,020 11,844 Zambezi 26,906 34,912 46,496 8,006 11,584
Kavango East 20,945 24,768 29,785 3,824 5,017 Kavango West 23,260 29,590 38,559 6,330 8,969
ǁKaras 28,747 40,776 59,895 12,028 19,119 Ohangwena 52,993 65,615 82,998 12,622 17,383
Oshana 47,032 60,879 80,864 13,847 19,985 Omusati 56,921 70,925 90,340 14,004 19,415 Kunene 28,226 45,147 75,686 16,922 30,539
Otjozondjupa 43,687 59,282 82,938 15,595 23,656 Oshikoto 49,486 67,547 95,113 18,061 27,566 Erongo 74,815 134,546 256,592 59,731 122,045 Khomas 141,964 237,207 417,227 95,243 180,020
Total/Namibia 640,640 931,622 1,438,736 290,981 507,115
4.3.3 OverallHousingNeedsinNamibiaRegionallyandNationallyTheoverallnumberofrequiredhousesnationally,duringtheshort,mediumandlongtermsareshownbyFigure11below.
Figure11:NationalHousingNeedinNamibiaintheShort,MediumandLongTermPeriodsItisevidentfromFigure11thatthenumberofrequiredhousesinNamibiawillcontinuetoescalatefrom147,009intheshorttermto507,115inthelongterm.ThecurrentoverallhousingsupplyinNamibia(ashithertostatedinTable4)is80,862dwellings,whichisjust55%oftherequired147,009
147,009
290,981
507,115
0
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300,000
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500,000
600,000
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2031-2041(Long Term)
Tota
l No.
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ouse
hold
s N
eede
d Pe
r Ter
m
Period
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 21
householdsby2020.Thiscompelslocal,regionalandnationalgovernmentstobeproactiveintheprovisionofsuitablehousingtoaddressthecurrentandanticipatedhousingneeds.Apartfromtheoverallnationalneeds,itiscrucialtoexaminethedistributionofthehousingneedsonregionalbase.Figure12belowillustratestheregion-by-regionhousingneedsinNamibia.
Figure12:RegionalHousingNeedsinNamibiaAsillustratedbyFigure12above,theErongoandKhomasregionsarethetworegionswiththehighestneedsofhousingforallperiods.
4.4 AnnualFutureHousingNeedsperPeriodinNamibiaAnoteworthycomponentofthehousingneedsassessmentisthedeterminationoftheexpectedhousingneedsperyearduringtheplanperiod.Hence,itisimperativetoconverttheprojectedhousingneedsintoannualhousingneeds.Thiswillenableurbanandregionalplanners,otherprofessionalsinthebuiltenvironment,aswellaspolicyanddecisionmakerstodeterminethenumberofhousesordwellingunitsorresidentiallandparcelsthatwillberequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termperiods.Inviewofthis,theprojectedhousingneedinNamibiawasconvertedtoannualflowperregionasshownbyFigure13.
KavangoEast
KavangoWest Omusati Kunene Zambezi Oshikot
oOmahek
eOhangw
ena Hardap Oshana //Kharas
Otjozondjupa Erongo Khomas
2017-2020 8926 5063 6063 8437 15324 8675 13464 8580 9407 9810 12843 14620 39951 66708
2021-2030 3824 6330 14004 16922 8006 18061 6747 12622 8020 13847 12028 15595 59731 95243
2031-2041 5017 8969 19415 30539 11584 27566 9973 17383 11844 19985 19119 23656 122045 180020
0
20000
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80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
No.
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ouse
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ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 22
Figure13:RegionalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriodThespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumforalltheregionsduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termperiodsaredepictedbyFigures14,15and16,respectively.
Kavango East
Kavango West Omusati Kunene Zambezi Oshikot
oOmahek
eOhangw
ena Hardap Oshana //Kharas
Otjozondjupa Erongo Khomas
2017-2020 1994 954 -353 2109 2680 605 2777 1583 1778 -127 2303 1969 4850 13629
2021-2030 382 633 1400 1692 801 1806 675 1262 802 1385 1203 1560 5973 9524
2031-2041 456 815 1765 2776 1053 2506 907 1580 1077 1817 1738 2151 11095 16365
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 23
Figure14:Short-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum
Figure15:Medium-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnum
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Kavango East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
Kavango East Kavango West
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 24
Figure16:Long-TermRegionalHousingNeedsperAnnumThespatialdistributionsofthehousingneedsperannumillustratethattheKhomasandErongoRegionsarethetwotopregionswiththehighesthousingneedsduringshort-,mediumandlong-terms.Ontheotherhand,theOmusatiandOshanaregionshavethelowestneedsduringtheshort-term,whiletheKavangoEastRegionistheregionwithlowestnumberofhousingneedsperannumduringthemediumandlong-termperiods.Nonetheless,thehousingneedsareanticipatedtoincreasenationallyfortheshort-termperiod(2017-2020),dropdownduringthemediumperiod(2021-2030)andescalateagainduringthelong-termperiod(2031-2041).Inparticular,36,752households,29,098householdsand46,101householdswillberequiredeveryyearduringtheshort-,medium-andlong-termrespectively,asshownbyFigure17below.
NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED PER PERIOD
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati
Kavango East
Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Oshana
Karas
Hardap
Kunene
Erongo Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Khomas
OshikotoOmusati Kavango West
ZambeziOhangwena
Kavango EastOshana
2017 - 2020 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2017_2020
-353 - -127
-126 - 954
955 - 2777
2778 - 4850
4851 - 13629
2021 - 2030 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
2031 - 2041 NEW HOUSEHOLD NEED
Legend2021_2030
0 - 382
383 - 802
803 - 1400
1401 - 1806
1807 - 9524
Legend2031_2041
0 - 456
457 - 1077
1078 - 2151
2152 - 2776
2777 - 16365
®
0 200 400100 Km
1:9 000 000
Kavango East
Zambezi
Khomas
Omaheke
Otjozondjupa
Oshikoto
Ohangwena
Oshana
Kunene
Erongo
Omusati
Karas
Hardap
Kavango West
ASINO & CHRISTENSEN Assessment of Housing Needs in Namibia
ILMI Working Paper No. 8 Page 25
Figure17NationalHousingNeedsperAnnumperPeriod
TheHarambeeProsperityPlanaimstodevelop26,000residentialparcelsnationallyby2020(OfficeofthePresident,2016).TheHarambeetargetof26,000willnotsufficientlymeettheprovisionofannualhousingneedsof36,752householdsbetween2017and2020asdepictedbyFigure17above.
5. ConclusionProvisionofsuitablehousing(includingresidentialland)isadevelopmentaldrawbackinNamibia,especiallyinurbanareaswherethereisasubstantialhousingbacklog.ThehousingscarcitycallsforananalysisoftheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.Suchanalysisrequirestheapplicationofmethodologicalassessmentapproaches.However,Namibianlocal,regionalandnationalgovernmentshavenotestablishedsuchmethodologicalapproaches.Hence,thisreportassessestheurbanhousingneedsinNamibiaonregionalandnationallevelsbyemployingtheUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA).TheSHMAfollowsthesequentialmethodologicalapproachbydeterminingthecurrenthousingneeds;currentandfuturehousingsupply;futurehousingneedsoveraplanperiod(beingfrom2017to2041);andannualhousingneedsperperiod.Thisapproachwasconfrontedbydatalimitationsinthisstudy.Inparticular,somelocalauthoritiesdidnotsupplydataoncurrentandfuturehousing(includingresidentialland).Furthermore,therearenosecondarysourcesdemonstratingprojectednumberofhouseholdsinNamibia.However,thegeometricprojectionformulawasappliedtoprojectthenumberofhouseholds.Nevertheless,theresultsobtainedprovedtobeworthwhileindemonstratingtheextentofcurrentandfuturehousingneedsinNamibia.
36,75229,098
46,101
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
2017-2020(Short Term)
2021-2030(Medium Term)
2031-2041(Long Term)
No.
of
Hous
ing
Nee
ded
Per Y
ear p
er P
erio
d
Period
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Thestudy’soutcomesconfirmthattheoverallcurrentandfuturehousingsupply(includingresidentialland)asavailablein,andplannedby,localauthoritiesinNamibiais80,862.Howeverthe80,862housingsupplyonanationallevelisstilllessthantheanticipated147,009householdsthatneedtobeprovidedwithsuitablehousingbytheendof2020.Therefore,inordertoensuresuitablehousingisprovidedtomeetthecurrentdemandandprojectedhouseholdsgrowth,thefollowingnumberofhousesarerequiredtobeprovidedinNamibiaannuallyduringtheshort,mediumandlongtermperiods:36,752householdsbetween2017and2020;29,098householdsbetween2021and2031and46,101householdsbetween2031and2041.Inculmination,theSHMAapproachatteststobeavaluablemethodologicalapproachthatcanbeappliedinassessinghousingneedsinNamibia,subjecttotheavailabilityofvarioushouseholdsvariablesthatcanbefactoredintothemethodology.
6. RecommendationsThisstudybringsforwardthefollowingrecommendations:
I. TheNamibiaStatisticsAgency(NSA)shouldavaildataonprojectednumberofhouseholds,andprojectedtypesofhouseholds,inordertoenableaccurateassessmentsofhousingneedsinNamibia.II. ThelocalauthoritiesinNamibianeedtodesigndatabaseswithrecordsof:(a) availablesingleresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodateoneindividualmainhousehold;(b) availablehighdensityresidentiallandparcelsthatcanaccommodatemorethanonehousehold,andthemaximumnumberofhouseholdsthatcanbeaccommodatedonsuchlandparcels;(c) projectednumberofsingleresidentialandhighdensityresidentiallandparcels(andenvisagednumberofhouseholds)basedontheirStructurePlan.
III. AsthereisnoformulaofconductinghousingneedsassessmentinNamibia,furtherresearchisneededtoestablishguidingcriteriaforhousingneedsassessmentinNamibia.Inparticular,theUnitedKingdom’sDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment’sStrategicHousingMarketAssessment(SHMA)needstobeexploredfurthertocomprehendiftherearevariablesthatneedtobesupplementedorobliteratedtotailormaketheapproachtoNamibia’shousingneedsstandards.
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