lake workshop: improving weather forecasting models with ......lake workshop: improving weather...

Lake Workshop: Improving Weather Forecasting Models with Satellite Data assimilation April 11, 2017, University of Waterloo

Philippe Van Cappellen

CFREF: Canada First Excellence Research Fund

• Created in 2014• Triagency initiative (NSERC, CIHR, SSHRC) • Approximately $200 million per year – 7 year grants• Goal: help Canada’s universities become global research leaders• First inaugural competition (2015): 5 awards ($350M)• Second inaugural competition (2016): 13 awards ($900M)

• Dalhousie, Laurentian, McGill, Polytechnique Montréal, Queen’s, Umontréal, Alberta, Calgary, Guelph, Saskatchewan, Waterloo, Western, York

Service Announcement #1

Global Water Futures: GWF

Lead Institution

Project Director

University of Saskatchewan

Howard Wheater

Partner Institutions University of Waterloo McMaster University Wilfred Laurier University

Other Partners 157 organizations (indigenous, research, government, private sector, civil society)

GWF: Budget (7 years)

Item Amount ($M)

CFREF Contribution 78

Partner Contributions, incl. Waterloo 66

Total Cash Budget 144

In-kind Contributions 88

Total Cash and In-kind Budget 232

Waterloo Matching (cash) 15

GWF: The Big Question

“How can we best forecast, prepare for and manage water futuresin the face of dramatically increasing risks?”

Challenges − Water-related threats are increasing due to climate change and other human activities (↑ “water insecurity”).

− Resulting in intensified flooding and droughts, decreased water availability and degraded water quality.

− Economic, human and environmental costs are increasing.

Responses Breakthrough transdisciplinary science. New monitoring systems and modelling tools. More effective mechanisms to translate new science to

societal change.

1. Deliver new capability for providing disaster warning;

2. Diagnose and predict water futures;

3. Develop new models, tools and approaches to manage water-related risks from multiple sectors (eg, agriculture, energy, urban, Indigenous etc.)

Objectives and Impact

Pillars

CHANGEPillar 1: Diagnosing and Predicting Change in “Cold” Regions

DATA/DECISION-MAKINGPillar 2: Big data and decision support systems

SOLUTIONSPillar 3: Designing user solutions

Position Canada as the

Global leader in water science for the world’s cold regions;

Global partner of choice for transdisciplinarywater research;

Provider for Canada and the world of strategic tools to manage water futures.

GWF Ambition

• First RFP (Pillar 3: User Solutions): December 2016

• ~30 LOIs 13 full proposals

• Deadline: April 10, midnight (CST)

• 2 “lakes” proposals:

– FORMBLOOM: FORecasting tools and mitigation options for diverse BLOOM-affected lakes (PI: Helen Baulch, UofS)

– LAKE FUTURES: Enhancing adaptive capacity and resilience of lakes and their watersheds (PI: Nandita Basu, Waterloo)

GWF: Internal RFPs

Lake Futures

Watershed pressures lake responses management solutions

Lake Futures: Phase 1 (Years 1-3)

Lake Futures: Phase 2 (Years 4-7)

Service Announcement #2

Zarfl et al., 2015, Aquatic Sciences; Lehner et al., 2011, Front. Ecol. Environ.

Global Damming

Red: existing dams in year 2000Blue: dams to be completed by 2030

Dams in Numbers

• > 16 million dams worldwide

• > 50,000 “large” dams (≥ 15m high)

• Large dam reservoirs: 400,000 km2 (> Σ small lakes)

• Volume dam reservoirs > volume rivers

• Global river catchment area draining into large dams: 1970: 18% 2000: 27% 2030: 36%

Reservoir: Between River and Lake

Van Cappellen P. and Maavara T. (2016) Rivers in the Anthropocene: Global scale modificationsof riverine nutrient fluxes by damming. Ecohydrology and Hydrobiology 16, 106-111.

Reservoirs ≠ Lakes

Hayes, N.M. et al. (2017) Key differences between lakes and reservoirs modify climate signals: A case for a new conceptual model. Limnology and Oceanography Letters 2, 47-62.

Organic Carbon Export to Oceans

TOC load to rivers (Tmol yr-1 )

TOC eliminated by dams (Tmol yr-1 )

% Export reduction by dams

% Reduction by burial

% Reduction by mineralization

30

4.0

13%

7%

6%

32

6.8

19%

12%

7%

2000 2030

Maavara T. et al. (2016) Global perturbation of organic carbon cyclingby river damming. Nature Communications – in press.

Dam and Reservoir Science

Thank you!