laem chabang phase 3 market sounding #1 · 4.3. 35.9. 8.0. 223. 237. 14. 26. thailand is the 2 nd...
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Public presentation
Bangkok, May 2018
Laem Chabang Phase3 Market Sounding #1
Three market sounding sessions will be conducted for the planned development of Laem Chabang Port Phase 3Timeline for Market Sounding
Market sounding
May 2018 July 2018
Draft feasibility study
Market sounding #1
Date:Wednesday, 2 May
Market sounding #2
Date:To be confirmed
June 2018
Market sounding #3
Date:To be confirmed
Tentative
2
The objective of today's session is to share details on the project and its viability as well as to collect feedback on our findings so far
Market sounding
May 2018 July 2018
Draft feasibility study
Market sounding #1
Date:Wednesday, 2 May
Date:To be confirmed To b
Market sounding #2 Market sou
June 2018
nding #3
Date:e confirmed
Market sounding #1 objective> Create public awareness of the planned development of
Laem Chabang Port Phase 3, including project detailsand project viability
> Collect feedback on findings so far and investmentinterest for the project
3
69
513,120
403.6
4.3
35.9
8.0
223
237
14
26
Thailand is the 2nd largest economy in ASEAN in terms of GDP and is a significant exporter in the regionOverview of key indicators for Thailand, 2017
Population [mln]
Size [square km]
GDP [USD bn]
GDP growth [%]
Industrial GDP [% of total]
FDI [USD bn]
Imports [USD bn]
Exports [USD bn]
Trade balance [USD bn]
Ease of doing business [out of 190]
Key indicators 2017ASEANranking
Worldranking
4th
2nd
7th
2nd
5th
2nd
3rd
20th
27th
97th
12th
34th
10th
26th
2nd 19th
21st
51st
2nd
3rd
Thailand ASEAN Countries
Source: World Bank, CIA Fact book, ADB, Roland Berger
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Actual Forecast
We forecast Thailand's trade to grow from 330 mln MT to 1.5 bn MT in 2050, driven by various national initiatives
+5%766
+7%
+3%
2050F2045F
1,456
1,294
2025F 2035F2020F
1,130
329
951
601466
2030F 2040F2015
Forecasted trade for Thailand, 2015 – 2050 [mln MT]
National Economy and Social Development Plan Volume 12
Thailand Industrial 4.020-year development plan
Eastern Economic Corridor initiative (industrial cluster development)
Ministry of Industry Strategic Plans
Thailand energy efficiency development plan (2015-2036) incl. EV campaign
Sector, strategies, and trends
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Source: UN Comtrade, Roland Berger analysis 5
GDP of the neighboring CLMV region and Southern China is also expected to grow five fold by 2050 to USD 4.4 trillion
Overview of hinterland expansion
Population Growth
Myanmar> Driven by foodstuff and
machineries (electrical & mach.)
Vietnam> Driven by foodstuff, cereals,
textile, garments, and footwear
Laos> Driven by apparel, textile,
garment, and footwear
Southern China> Driven by electrical appliances
and parts and automotive parts
Cambodia> Driven by apparel, footwear,
machineries & auto parts
51.9 m USD 63 bn
65.5 m
USD 655 bn
91.7 mUSD 194 bn
124.6 m
USD 917 bn
7.0 mUSD 12 bn
11.6 m
USD 71 bn
15.5 m USD 18 bn
23.6 m
USD 102 bn
2015129 mUSD 596 bn
150 m
USD 2,665 bn
2050
GDP
Growthin GDP
4x
Thailand> Driven by machinery, electronics
and electrical products, automotive & rubber
67.9 mUSD 395 bn
77.7 m
USD 1,285 bn
10x
5x
6x
6x
3xFEAS
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Source: IMF, Roland Berger analysis 6
As Thailand's largest international port, LCP should act as both enabler and catalyst of economic growth and gateway for Indochina
Source: Roland Berger
LCP – Getting ready for the future
LCP in the Future"Gateway for Indochina"> Largest port in Indochina and largest domesticLCP Now
"Gateway for Eastern Seaboard"> Largest port in Thailand – 135 mln MT> Focused on Import / Export – Very limited
transit and transshipment> Most cargos are container (45%) and liquid
(33%)> 10 km total berth length> ~15 km2 of industrial area> Hinterland connectivity largely limited to
within Thailand> Past developments focused on container
capacity expansion
port in SEA – Estimated throughput ~650 mln MT> 40-50 km total berth length> 70-90 km2 of industrial area> Hinterland beyond Thailand, extends to CLMV +
South China> On-going expansion of port land and port capacity
"Industrial Engine of Growth"> Port dependent industries to drive throughput> Efficient connectivity with industrial and economic
centers> Comprehensive ecosystem of port-dependent and
maritime clustersFEAS
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We forecast total container demand at LCP to reach 29 mln TEUsby 2050, driven by both domestic and transit trade
28.5
2015 2020F 2025F 2030F 2035F 2040F 2045F 2050F
25.0
+4%21.8
+6% 14.9
18.4
11.99.2
6.8
+3%
Container throughput forecast and driver, 2015 – 2050 [mln TEUs]
TranshipmentEmpties
ImportExportTransit
Rationale
Import
Container trade balanceContainer trade destination (hinterland distance)
Already included –Revised for clarity
GNI growth Tourism growth Agriculture growth Population growth
Manufacturing growth Infrastructure growth
Transit Regional trade growthRegional consumption expenditure growth
Commercial arrangement Facilities and handling capabilities
Transshipment
Empties
Strong Neutral
Preliminary
Container
Export GNI growth Indochina growth Infrastructure growth
Trade/production centralization
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Source: Roland Berger 8
Pending future economic development and policy changes, actual throughput may vary – different scenarios may occur
LCP container demand forecast, 2015 – 2050 [mln TEU/yr]
21
28
18
23
15
0
10
20
30
2050F2045F2040F2035F2015 2030F2025F2020F
34 +20%
Source: PAT, Roland Berger
40
-20%Projected Phase 1 & 2 & 3combined capacity Pessimistic case: -20%
Phase 1 & 2 capacity
Best case Base casePessimistic case
18 mln TEU
11.1 mln TEU
Container
Slow down in Thai and ASEANeconomic growth (-10%)Lower LCP capture ratio, i.e. lose petroleum shareto Map Ta PhutSlowdown of basic infra. development, e.g.EECStagnant trade policies andagreements, i.e. less transit/ trade
1
2
3
4
Best case: +20%Higher growth in specific industries of LCP (e.g. petroleum, agriculture, etc.)Growing LCP capture ratio in specific industries, e.g. fertilizer
Infrastructure dev't goes according to plan
Enforced trade policies and agreementsas well as marketing
1
2
34
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9
10
14.9
2030
18.4
2035
21.8
2040
25.0
2045
28.5
20502020 2025
9.2
11.1
11.96.8
8.1
2015Legend
Demand Terminal capacity Phase 1 & 2
Laem Chabang port required container capacity [mln TEU]
Source: Roland Berger
We forecast that growth of demand will exceed LCP's current handling capacity by ~2024 prompting the need for expansion
TerminalA, B, C
Terminal Dcommences
TerminalA, B, C, D
Handling capacityreached
ContainerFE
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Berth length will grow threefold by 2050 through Phase 3 development – sufficient to accommodate growth in demand
Forecasted LCP trade vs. expected berth length, 2015 – 2050
25.021.8
18.414.9
11.9
10.3
3x
28.5
2045F 2050F2020F2015
9.5
2025F
6.05.2
9.2
8.7
2030F
7.7
2040F
6.8
3.8Total berth
length[km]
2035F
9.5
Aggregate Berth LengthContainer Trade
Source: Roland Berger
Trade[mln TEU]
ContainerFE
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11
Based on our forecast, Phase 3 is estimated to have throughput of9.1 mln TEUs by 20501) at 10.2 mln TEUs capacity
4.5
16.2
2040 2045
Terminal capacity
23.727.0
25.021.8
9.18.6
7.9
2030 2035
Additional capacity expansions
6.4
18.4
2050
14.9
2025
28.5
18.8
34.530.7
0.71.31.8
2020
13.29.2
11.1 11.9
2015Legend
6.88.1
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
LCP container capacity & throughput container [in mln TEU]
Current Phase 2 Phase 3
F1 F2 E1 E2
Source: Roland Berger
Subsequent developments
Preliminary
1) Productivity improvement from 2,130 TEUs per berth meter in 2015 to 2,900 TEUs per berth meter in 2050
ContainerFE
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YSTU
DYIN
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12
Design vessel dimension for LCP Phase 3 will be aligned to future demand
Design vessel dimensions
Maximum ship dimensions Trends in ship sizes
397 m x 56 m x 15.5 m
> Historical call size:– Average call size in 2016 for container ships at LCP was ~1,500 TEU– Share of large container ship at LCP is low. In 2015 and 2016 the
largest container vessels at LCP only had a capacity of approximately 10,000 TEU
> Assumption:– 15,000 TEU container vessels with 22 TEU reach are the probable
largest vessels likely to be deployed on routes that include LCP> Driver:
– Rise of e-commerce will dictate for:- Smaller shipments, more destinations- Increase in global trade, higher frequency of ships, faster and
greener ships
Container capacity [TEU]
22
8
10 Up to 15,000 TEU
22 TEU outreach
Container
Source: LCP Statistics, Roland Berger
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Actual Forecast
We also forecast total car demand at LCP to reach 4 mln cars by 2050, driven by growth of the automotive and EV industry
Total car demand at LCP [mln cars]
Car
2030F 2045F
3.8
2040F
+3.6%
2.8
1.9
2020F
+4.4%+5.0%
2050F
4.2
2025F
1.5
2035F
+3.3%
3.3
2.3
+2.5%
2015
1.3
Drivers
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Source: LCP, Roland Berger
Imports Increase domestic consumption/ consumer expenditureIncreased demand for premium European assembled vehiclesIncreased demand for eco-cars
Exports Increased investment in Thailand as the automotive production hub
Increased regional and global demand for new vehicles
Increasing relocation of major European car parts purchasing to Thailand,
14
15
2020 2025
1.5
2015Legend
2.2
1.3
2045
3.8
2040
3.3
2035
2.8
2030
2.31.9
4.2
2050
Terminal capacity Phase 1 & 2Demand
Laem Chabang port required car capacity [mln vehicles]
LCP's car current handling capacity may only be exceeded by 2029
Handling capacity
Source: Roland Berger
exceeded
CarFE
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Specific economic trends may result in higher or lower growth rates, resulting in different potential scenarios
LCP car throughput forecast, 2015 – 2050F [mln cars]
3.5
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
ProjectedPhase 1 & 2 & 3 capacityPhase 1 & 2capacity
4.9+20%
4.2
-20%
Source: PAT, Roland Berger
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Best case Base casePessimistic case
Car
Pessimistic case: -20%Slow down in Thai and ASEAN economicgrowthPolitical shift and shift of manufacturing hubto regional countries due to incentives & offerings
Shift in Thailand economy e.g., min. wage
Stagnant trade policies and agreements
1
2
34
Best case: +20%Thai and ASEAN economic growth is increasing driving demand for automotive
Growing foreign investment into automotiveand EV development in ThailandGovernment continuous effort to support foreign investors and automotive industryGrowing trade ties and resuming of freetrade agreements
1
2
3
43.2 m cars
2.2 m cars
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16
A wide variety of technologies can be integrated in the development of Phase 3
Optimized vessel stowage planning
Unmanned AGV1)
fleet
Automated vessel traffic control
Automated quay cranes with
optimized moves
Automatic yard planning and
storage system
Optimized rail load and discharge
processes
Advanced/interconnectedbuilding automation andpredictive maintenance
Automated RTG /RMG2) 3)
with predictive maintenance function
Truck platooning and data-driven logistics
planning
Warehouse automation and
planning
1) Automated-guided vehicle 2) Rubber-tired gantry 3) Rail-mounted gantry crane
Source: Roland Berger
Selected automation concepts Illustrative
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Automation selection factors [Non-exhaustive]VS.
The level of automation will depend on a multitude of factors and may vary over time as technologies become more common
Government policy
Operator experience
Competitors behavior
Availability of technology
Cost of technology
Terminal complexity
Terminal dimensions
Congestion
Automation level selection
Employment focus Productivity focus
Low investment / High costs operating costs
Commonly available Specialized technology
Low-tech competition High-tech competition
Limited experience Technology leader
Newly developed port Congested legacy port
Large space for storage Limited space and traffic
Limited complexity (1terminal, 1 mode)
High complexity (multiple terminals, multimodal
Number of berths 1 berth Multi-berth terminal
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Source: Roland Berger 18
STS crane AutomaticStackingCrane
Electronictruck gate
Lift frames
Transtainer
Lift AGV
Truck loading23containers
Remote controlled gantry crane willpromote a human-free movement ofcontainers from ship to shore and viceversa reducing personnel interactionand potential accidents.Containers coming into the port aremoved via remote controlled gantrycrane into the shore to await AGV pickup for storage.
1
Lift AGV is an autonomous vehicle designed for moving containers, promoting theseamless movement of containers from shoreline to container yard -simultaneously transferring containers to the ASC and maximizing containermovements.The lift AGV picks up containers discharged from the gantry crane and moves ittowards the container yard.
2
Lift frames promote the mobility and turn around activity for the AGV moving the container off the AGV onto the container yard to the ASC allowing the AGV to proceed to collect the next container efficiently.Approaching AGV carrying the container from the shore moves towards the lift frame. The lift frame then lifts the container on the AGV off allowing the AGV to move back to collect more containers.
3
Automatic Stacking Crane (ASC) promotes the ultra-efficient stacking and transfer ofcontainers delivered to the container yard via AGVs. The ASC picks up containersdischarged by the AGV and stacks them according to a pre-determined delivery andpick up schedule. As such, stacking and the movement of containers are seamless dueto the automation of the stacking activity.The ASC moves the container removed by the lift frame from the AGV and stacks thecontainer in a manner for easy retrieval.
4 6
Truck loading harnesses the ASC to identify and transport container from the container yard onto the truck that comesinto the port to collect the container. The ASC automatically identifies and moves the container from the yard onto thetruck without human intervention. This helps to promote fleet timing management for container collection reducing traffic.The ASC identifies and moves the container from the container yard onto the back of the incoming truck to be moved outof the port
5
Transtainer enables the movementof containers from the primer moveronto the train simultaneously.Multiple trains can be loaded via thetranstainer allowing efficient andtimely management of train.The transtainer moves thecontainer from the prime mover andstacks the container onto the rail ina manner for easy retrieval.
7
Electronic truck gate (e-Gate) allows for efficient allocation of trucks inthe terminal to minimize dwell time within the terminal for containercollection. The gate harnesses state-of-the-art-technologies which pairscontainer locations to trucks.The e-Gate scans truck license plates and matches it to specific locationsfor container pickup within the terminal.
1
3
2
4
5
6
Source: Roland Berger
7
Potential terminal automation concept for Laem Chabang Phase 3
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Wide range of automation concepts and technologies are being considered and adopted by leading terminal operators worldwide
Terminal automation case study: HHLACTA, Hamburg – Process illustrationBackground Illustration of processes
> Port of Hamburg handled the largest number ofcontainers transported by rail in Europe; Railshares ~45% of container traffic with 200 goodstrains/day
> To facilitate seamless container movement, cutting-edge systems are utilized:– HHLA adopts a TOS combining yard ops as
well as all rail and road traffic throughout the terminal with container handling and in optimizing their interplay
– Gantry cranes, operated by skilled drivers, load and discharge from/to the vessel
– The gantry trolley lowers it on to an AGV –which travels the fastest route to the yard
– The container yard is serviced by ASCs (RMGs) in parallel, and semi-auto control joysticks used for truck loading
– Semi-automated transtainer cranes supported by rail yard optimization software is used to load containers on/off train wagons
Source: HHLA, Hafen Hamburg, Roland Berger
HamburgFE
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20
1) Includes quay operations, container yard2) Includes warehouse, CFS, customs, parking area, office buildings
D2
D3
D1
Open storage area
Open storageMarine area
CFS
Car parking
service
Drainage pond
Coastalterminal
Miscellaneous facilities area2)
Port Gate
(Gate 5)
200 m200 m
500 m500 m135 m
1500 m
2000 m
920 m
Container terminal yard1)
Container terminal yard1)
Miscellaneous facilities area2)
Car terminal
Terminal componentsRail tracksRoad vehicle lanes Elevated roadsPhase 2 area
Phase 3 area Future rail tracksFuture road vehicle lanes
We are currently reviewing spatial development options for the container terminals and car terminal in Phase 3
Source: Roland Berger, TEAM
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Future
Currently ongoing review of spatial layout for the container terminal and Roll on Roll Off (Ro/Ro) terminal in Phase 3
Container Terminal (E1) Container Terminal (E2) Container Terminal (F1)
Container Terminal (F2) Ro-Ro Terminal (E0) Domestic Coastal Terminal
Service Berth
1 2 3
4 5 6
7
5
2
1 3
4 6
7
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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The development of Laem Chabang port phase III
Container terminals capacity are 7 million TEU/year and RO/RO terminal capacity is 1.0
million cars/year.
• 4 container terminals which are E1, E2, F3 and F2
• 1 Ro/Ro terminal (E0)
Transportation Network
• Increase rail handling capacity with implementation of the automation technologies
• Improvement The road network such as network for Access Means to Laem Chabang Port,
crossings between road and rail in port areas.
• 1 Domestic coastal terminal capacity 1 million TEU/year
Cargo handling system
• Automation technology will be introduced to improve service quality and safety with
energy efficiency as well as community and environmental
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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Container Terminals
• Capacity : 7 million TEU/year
• E1 & E2 Terminal : Berth length 750 m
• F1 & F2 Terminal : Berth length 1,000 m
Roll on Roll Off (Ro/Ro) terminal
• Capacity : 1 million Cars/year
• Berth length 920 m
Domestic Coastal Port
• Capacity : 1 million TEU/year
• Berth length 500 m
• Depth 9 m.MSL
Service Berth
• Berth length 435 m for tug,
service boat etc.
Berthing Basin 920 m
High level master Plan Overview
Navigation Channel
• Two ways approach channel width 600 m
• Depth -18.5 m. MSL.
• Turning Basin 800 m.
E0 : RO-RO Terminal
E1 : Container Terminal
E2 : Container Terminal
Service Berth
Turning
Basin
Silt Pond
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Coastal Port
F2 : Container Terminal
F1 : Container Terminal
3
Project Background
เสนอาณาเขต 52 ตร.กม. ของ ทลฉ.
0
5
10
15
20
Capacity (M TEU/ Years)
11.1 718.1
Phase 1 and 2 Phase 3 Phase 1-3
• Development of Laem Chabang Port
Phase 1, 2 and 3 to increase containers
throughput capacity about 18.1 Million
TEUs/year.
• Increasing annual vehicle handling
capacity from 2 million to 3 million cars.
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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4
Automated Container Yard
Rail way
Container Terminal : E1 & E2 Layout of 750 m.
E
1
The container terminal capacity in Laem Chabang Port Phase 3 approximately 7 million TEU/year with
berth length 3,500 m.
The throughput capacity of a container terminal for each berth, E1 and E2 about 1.5 million TEU/year,
totaling 3.0 million TEU/year.
Terminal land side width around 500 m.
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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Container Terminal : F1 & F2 Layout of 1000 m.
Automated Container Yard
Rail way E
1
The throughput capacity of a container terminal for each berth, F1 and F2 about 2.0 million
TEU/year, totaling 4.0 million TEU/year.
Terminal land side width around 500 m.
Southern berthing basin of Phase 3 shall be allocated as terminal F1 and F2; of which berth
length is 1000 m.
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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Ro-Ro Terminal : E0
The terminal throughput is designed at 1.0 million unit/year with 3 RO/RO ships berth.
Located at the bottom of basin where berth length is 920 m.
The Terminal landside width is 460 m with 15,000 ground parking unit.
E
1
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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The capacity of domestic coastal terminal around 1.0 million TEU, berth length 500 m.
The design ship size : 300 TEU or 3,000 DWT.
Located outside the main navigation channel with its own channel so that coastal ship operations will
not interfere with operation of ship on international trades
The terminal landside width 200 m.
Domestic Coastal Terminal
E
1
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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Dredging Area
Dredge material volume : 57 million
cubic meters
Land reclamation Area
37 million cubic meters
Silt Pond
20 million cubic meters is fine
material which shall be disposed
of at the silt pond
Dredging and Reclamation
Soil improvement for an
existing silt pond area.
High level master Plan OverviewFE
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9
Today
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tender Announcement
for PPP
PPP Feasibility Study
1/3/2018- 31/5/2018
Draft Final Design
1/3/2018- 31/5/2018
EHIA
1/1/2018- 31/5/8
Oct Nov Dec
PAT Approval
Proposals Preparation
3 Month
Market Sound #1
2/5/18
Market Sound #2
6/18
Market Sound #3
7/18
Selected Private
OperatorEECO
Approval
Mar Jan Feb Mar
Final Detailed Design
Attorney General Consider Draft Contact
The Winnerin Selecting Port Operator
Time Line
ergerThink:Act
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