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La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche

Prof. Roberto Setola Unità di Ricerca di AUTOMATICA Facoltà Dipartimentale di Ingegneria

La Gestione delle Infrastrutture Critiche

Modellazione Identificazione Controllo

Problem driven COSERITY Lab Laboratorio Sistemi Complessi & Sicurezza

Ongoing EU Projects

Ongoing National Projects

Collaborations

Past EU Projects

PNMR

SIM

CIA

Cyber

Keiron

Threat - Vulnerability Path Identification for Critical Infrastructures

Developing a comprehensive and multi-dimensional all-hazards catalogue for critical infrastructures

5

Sensors

Pumps

Valves

PLC SCADA (iFix)

HMI

SWITCH

IDS EXPERT SYSTEM

FAULT DETECTION

RISK PREDICTOR

METRIP MEthodological Tools for Railway

Infrastructure Protection

De Cillis, F., De Maggio, M. C., Pragliola, C., & Setola, R. (2013). Analysis of criminal and terrorist related episodes in railway infrastructure scenarios. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 10(2).

7 July 2015 8

DSS operator

CI Operators

Civil

Protection and

Local

Authorities

Simulator

CI response on “system of systems” models

European Infrastructure Simulation & Analysis Center

Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research NoE

7 July 2015 9

CISIA (terminato)

Minuto 10 Livelli: . ooo

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

PS 2PS 1 SS6SS2SS1 SS3 SS7 SS8SS5SS4

Residential 5 (FU)

Residential 4 (FU)

Residential 1 (FU)

Residential 3 (FU)

Hospital 1 (FU)Hospital 2 (FU)

Residential 2 (FU)

Water Pump 1 (SAU)Water Pump 2 (SAU)

Telco BTS 1 (PAU)

Telco BTS 2 (PAU)

Residential 6 (FU)

Telco BTS Master (SAU)

Electric

ity

Ele

ctrici

ty

Electricity

Electricity

ElectricityElectricity

Ele

ctrici

ty

Ele

ctr

icity

Ele

ctr

icity

Ele

ctric

ity

Ele

ctric

ityE

lectricity

Wate

r

Electricity

Electricity

Com

mun

icat

ion

Com

munic

atio

n

Communication

Com

mun

icat

ion

Water

Ele

ctric

ity

(Real-time) hazard analysis

Direct impact analysis

First order impact analysis

Higher order impact analysis

Persistence Layer.

B1- Monitoring of Natural phenomena

B2 - Prediction of Natural disasters

and Event Detection

B3 - Prediction of physical harm

scenarios

B4 - Estimation of impacts and

consequences

B5 - Support of efficient strategies for crisis scenarios

Risk Assessment Workflow Manager

Information Sharing and Collaboration

Module

Service Manager

GIS Interface

Impact Reporting Interface

Consequence Reporting Interface

Simulation Manager

Security

Data Access Manager

Damage estimate

11

Wealth function

Service Access Wealth (SAW) Indices

Input Output Inoperability (IIM)

i ij

j

a

j ij

i

a

dependency index

influence gain

0 * * *

* 0 * *

* * 0 *

* * * 0

A

Setola, R., De Porcellinis, S., & Sforna, M. (2009). Critical infrastructure dependency assessment using the input–output inoperability model. International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, 170-178.

• Statistical data • Expert knowledge

Inter-Dependency

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

<1h 1h-6h 6h-12h 12h-24h 24h-48h

Air Transportation ElectricityTLC Wired TLC WirelessWater Management Rail TransportationFinance Naval PortsFuel & Petroleum Grid Natural GasSatellite Communication & Navigation

Fuel &

Petroleum

Air

transportation

Naval Ports

Finance

Dependency level vs. operating conditions and outage duration

F. Conte, G. Oliva and R. Setola, Time varying Input-Output inoperability model, International Journal on

Infrastructure Systems, 2013.

IIM Fuzzy System

To manage uncertainty, the variables can be modelled as fuzzy numbers (believeness degree)

Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Discrete-time linear systems with fuzzy dynamics." Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems 27.3 (2014): 1129-1141.

Worst case

Best case

Most believed case

Oliva, Gabriele, Stefano Panzieri, and Roberto Setola. "Distributed consensus under ambiguous information." International Journal of System of Systems Engineering 4.1 (2013): 55-78.

Criticality map Dependency index

Influence gain

Oliva, G., Setola, R., & Barker, K. (2014). Fuzzy Importance Measures for Ranking Key Interdependent Sectors Under Uncertainty. Reliability, IEEE Transactions on, 42-57.

7/2/2015 19 In fault

Working

January 31, 2014

July 10, 2015 20

# impacted people 65+

Electrical System

7/2/2015 21

ACEA Rome HT/MT/LT Control Room