kva symposium ocean acidification cornell 2014

1

A PARTNER WITH

What do we know

about the costs of ocean acidification

to future Swedish society?

Dr Sarah CornellStockholm, October 2014

pH 8.12, 1989

pH 8.08,2009

Figure Doney 2010, data Dore et al 2009

Message 1:

We know very littleBut we know enough to inform sensible policy choices

Useful overviews: Royal Society, 2005. Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.

www.royalsociety.org, document ID 13539.Doney et al., 2010. The growing human footprint on coastal and ocean biogeochemistry.

Science 328 1512-1516.

CO2

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Fossilfuelcombus onAgriculture

Deforesta on

Carbondioxide

Organicpollutantsandtoxicmetals

Nutrientelements

Climatechange

Coastaleutrophica onandhypoxia

Alteredbiologicalproduc on

Oceanacidifica on

LoweredO2

simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences

Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes

ccccccccccccccccc

Fossilfuelcombus onAgriculture

Deforesta on

Carbondioxide

Organicpollutantsandtoxicmetals

Nutrientelements

Climatechange

Coastaleutrophica onandhypoxia

Alteredbiologicalproduc on

Oceanacidifica on

LoweredO2

simple cause (anthropogenic CO2) complex consequences

Ocean acidification is part of a complex set of global human-caused physical and biological changes

• Primary production

• Nutrient cycling

• Biodiversity

• Resilience (where organisms survive – but at a cost)

• Trophic webs

• Habitats

All aspects of ecosystems are affected by ocean acidification:

Ocean acidification is essentially irreversible

75

50

250

US

$T

rill

ion

Policycost+damages

by2100

Damagesby2200

Damagesby2200

Damagesby2100

Costsof

Ac onvsInac on

(Estimates from Kempfert 2005 and Watkiss et al 2005)

Stern 2006: 2% of global GDP to achieve climate stabilization at 500 ppm CO2eCosts of inaction are >5% (up to 20% or more) of world GDP

Nordhaus 2008: Net cost of delaying mitigation by 50 years is US$ 2.3 Trillion (2005 prices)

As CO2 rises and ocean pH drops, costs to society will rise

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Population __

World GDP Index __

CO2 emissions __

LPI biodiversity loss __

N and P use __

Also: Steffen et al. 2004, Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet under Pressure, Springer Verlag.

Data: US Bureau of the Census International Database, www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html; GDP from Earth Policy Institute, www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C53; and International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo); CO2 from Global Carbon Project; LPI www.panda.org/lpr; Global partnership for Nutrient Management, www.unep.org/gpnm.

Human pressures are growing worldwide…

Message 2:

We are driving global changes in a world where resilience is already depleted

… and we only have this world1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Population __

World GDP Index __

CO2 emissions __

LPI biodiversity loss __

N and P use __

Message 3:

Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Population __

World GDP Index __

CO2 emissions __

LPI biodiversity loss __

N and P use __

‘Marginal’ changes are not marginal in complex systems with a history

Cost(s) ≠ Price ≠ Value

Message 3:

Economic valuation tools reach their limits with ocean acidification

Preferences Direct Indirect

Revealed Market prices Replacement costsMitigation costs

Hedonic pricing(also travel cost)Averting behaviour

Stated Contingent valuation Choice experiments

‘Capital’: Hard vs soft constraints? Infinite or finite shadow values?

Monetary valuations:

US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391

US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL

US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries

• ‘Services that will be affected…’• Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits

Scoping studies:

Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology

Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA

Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education

Monetary valuations:

US$ 100 billion from shellfisheries – Narita et al. 2011, ESRI WP391

US$ 9 billion for shoreline protection by reefs – Cooley & Doney 2009, ERL

US $ 21 billion for reef fisheries

• ‘Services that will be affected…’• Carbon storage versus possible yield benefits

How will these ‘values’ be used?

Scoping studies:

Hilmi et al. 2013, Marine Biology

Armstrong et al. 2012, FRAM Centre & NIVA

Kite-Powell 2009, Journal of Marine Education

Costs > Dollars

Herman Daly (2009) – the unit of value is the ‘dollar’s worth’, not the dollar

Ludwig von Mises (1949) – economic valuation is not ‘a category of all human action’, it operates ‘under the special conditions of the exchange market’

Sagoff 2000: diversity and deliberation are part of democratic decision-making

Spash & Vatn 2006:

apart from valuation, other approaches are available(motives/behaviour analysis, MCA, dialogue)

Cornell 2010, Valuing ecosystem benefits in a dynamic world. Climate Research.

Production – yes, seafood.

But also jobs, health, livelihoods…

What can we say about Sweden?

Sweden’s expected direct exposure:

• Eutrophication and anoxia in Baltic (already low calcite)

• Marine production sector:

- Fish/shellfish

- Bioresources

Northern high latitudes

‘Robust’ fish species

Havenhand 2012, Ambio

Environmental processes depend on the functioning of the whole environment

• Cost of impacts of ocean acidification will rise

• Urbanization, emerging economies’ development pathways = lock-in, so best-value trade and aid investment is now.

Message 4:

Delaying climate change mitigation (CO2 emissions cuts)

will cost Sweden more in the future than now

Knowledge needs

• Methods that make sense – complexity, economics within society within environment

• Effects of ocean pH changes – chemistry, physics, biology + everything else

• Local studies in global frameworks

• Policies and institutions that support precaution, provisionality, participation

Thank you

sarah.cornell@su.se

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