koons.sunday.incorporating disasterplans
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North Central FloridaRegional Planning Council
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Incorporating Disaster Plansinto Comprehensive Economic
Development Strategies
National Association of Development Organizations2013 Annual Training Conference
San Francisco, CA
August 25, 2013
Scott R. Koons, AICPExecutive Director
North Central Florida Regional Planning CouncilGainesville, FL
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Economic and Disaster Resiliency
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Overview
North Central Florida Region
Study Partners
Hazards Analysis
Vulnerability Analysis
Economic Analysis
Conclusions
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Regional Planning Councils
2/3 Local Elected Officials
1/3 Gubernatorial Appointees
Counties Mandatory and Cities Voluntary
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11 counties and 33 municipalities (13 member cities)
7,000 square miles
500,000 population
North Central Florida Region
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Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes
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Study Partners
FEMA
Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus
Microsoft Excel
U.S. Department of Commerce,Economic Development Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Weather Service
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Hazards Analysis
County Maps:
Hurricane Surge
Freshwater Flooding
Wildfire Hazard
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Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge
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North Central Florida 100-Year Flood Zones
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Wildfire Level of Concern
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Vulnerability Analysis
Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade built, critical infrastructures and staging areas by Census Block Group.
Identifies industries densely located in
hurricane/flooding prone areas.
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Residential Parcels
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Commercial and Industrial Parcels within 100-Year Flood Zone
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Critical Infrastructure
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Economic Analysis
Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane inNorth Central Florida
Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, Spending, Cleanup Activity, Influx of Federal
Funds)
Negative Impacts (Job Loss, Population Loss,County Government Revenue Loss)
Associated Indirect Impacts
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Impact Analysis Building Blocks
Council - Hurricane Tracks
National Weather Service - Hurricane Modeling Information
HazUS - Building Damage
Council - Direct Impacts (Job Losses, Population Losses, Recovery Times)
Regional Economic Models, Inc. - Indirect Impacts
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Hypothetical Hurricanes
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Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes
Developed by National Weather Service
Enter Region from Gulf of Mexico
6 - 7 Hours to Traverse Region
29-Mile Radius of Maximum Winds
Enter with 160-170 mph Maximum Winds
Exit with 95 mph Maximum Winds
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North Track Hurricane Path
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South Track Hurricane Path
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North Central Florida RegionDirect Impacts - North Track Hurricane 10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss
15% Buildings Severely Damaged or Destroyed
13% Population Loss
8% Job Loss
Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 5 Years
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North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts North Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage
None Minor Moderate
Severe Destroyed
Total
Agriculture 40.5 20.1 17.1 16.4 5.9 100.0
Commercial
51.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.9 100.0
Education 75.8 12.1 6.3 5.8 0.1 100.0
Government
51.6 14.1 14.3 19.5 0.5 100.0
Industrial 48.2 14.6 15.1 19.6 2.4 100.0
Religion 50.7 17.5 14.5 15.8 1.5 100.0
Residential 50.0 20.8 14.9 6.6 7.7 100.0
Total 50.2 20.4 14.9 7.3 7.2 100.0
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North Central Florida RegionDirect Impacts - South Track Hurricane 47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss
53% Buildings Severely Damaged/Destroyed
30% Population Loss
22% Job Loss
Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 6 Years
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North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage
None Minor Moderate
Severe Destroyed
Total
Agriculture 11.8 10.5 20.7 40.7 16.3 100.0
Commercial
11.3 7.3 19.7 55.4 6.4 100.0
Education 4.8 3.9 13.8 75.9 1.7 100.0
Government
12.5 7.1 16.6 62.5 1.4 100.0
Industrial 10.5 6.8 16.6 61.1 5.0 100.0
Religion 13.2 10.3 21.2 51.5 3.9 100.0
Residential 13.9 11.9 22.3 26.1 25.9 100.0
Total 13.7 11.5 22.1 28.3 24.4 100.0
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Direct Impacts - Assumptions
All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings Repaired/Rebuilt
All Basic Industry Jobs and Associated Population Returns
All Homes with Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns
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Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued Half of Homes without Mortgages are
Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population Returns
Recovery of Non-Basic Industry Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Recovery of Population Associated with Non-Basic Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
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Total Impacts
Direct Impacts + Indirect Impacts = Total Impacts
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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Jobs
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021150000
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
270000
290000
w/o Hurricane
South Track Hurricane
North Track Hurricane
South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assis-tance
North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris Assis-tance
Jobs
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - Population
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
w/o Hurricane
South Track Hurricane
North Track Hurricane
South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disas-ter & Debris Assistance
North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disas-ter & Debris Assistance
Persons
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
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North Central Florida Region Total Impacts - County Government Revenue
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021$550,000,000
$600,000,000
$650,000,000
$700,000,000
$750,000,000
$800,000,000
$850,000,000
$900,000,000
$950,000,000
w/o Hur-ricane
South Track Hurricane
North Track Hurricane
South Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris As-sistance
North Track Hurricane with FEMA Disaster & Debris As-sistance
Revenue
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011
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Conclusions
Basic Industry Jobs Return
Federal Assistance to Basic Industries Reduces Recovery Times
Non-basic Jobs Dependent on County Population
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Conclusions, Continued
Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss by Retaining Population
Federal Disaster and Debris Removal Assistance Provides Boost to Local Economy For 3 Years After Disaster, Little Impact Thereafter
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For More Information
Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org
or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, atkoons@ncfrpc.org
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North Central Florida Regional Planning Council2009 NW 67th Place
Gainesville, FL 32653-1603352.955.2200 www.ncfrpc.org
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