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KONDISI EKONOMI REGIONAL/GLOBAL DAN
KEKUATAN ASEAN
Oleh : DR. Makarim Wibisono
Disampaikan pada
Seminar ASEAN , Lt. 3 Kampus UKI, Cawang 22 November 2011
A reaction to the ongoing Cold War.
A fear of communism.
A vehicle to promote economic development.
Indonesia, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
The dynamics of ASEAN changed with the accession of :
Brunei Darussalam (1984),
Vietnam (1995),
Laos and Myanmar (1997)
Cambodia (1999)
The economic road towards peace.
The Bangkok Declaration stated :
“The ASEAN Leaders have placed economic and
social cooperation at the forefront of the
Association’s stated purposes in order to give
material content to Southeast Asian solidarity.”
The Establishment of ASEAN community (AO).
The IX ASEAN Summit, Bali, 2003 : Bali Concord II: 3 pillars of ASEAN community.
The X ASEAN Summit, Vientiane, 2004: Vientiane Action Program leading to AO.
The XI ASEAN Summit, Kuala Lumpur, 2005: Declaration on the establishment of ASEAN charter.
The XII ASEAN Summit, Cebu, 2007: Cebu Declaration on the Acceleration of the Establishment of an ASEAN Community by 2015.
The XIII ASEAN Summit, Singapore, Nov 2007:
Signing ASEAN Charter. The XIV ASEAN Summit, Hua Hin, Thailand,
March 2009: Adoption of APSC and ASCC Blueprint
3 Pillars of ASEAN Community:
“The shift of economic power from West to East will continue, and Asia-Pacific will remain the most attractive economic region for the next 20 years”, HIS Global Insight, 2011
Asia economic growth will continue to outpace that of the West. Led by China and India, but also influenced heavily by the likes of Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Viet Nam. The center of the wealth is clearly shifting eastwards.
The Global Economic Centre of Gravity Shifts East
Source: The Economist
Asia’s rise will be led by PRC, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand.
In the 2010 these seven economies had a combined total population of 3.1 billion (78 percent of Asia) and a GDP of $14.2 trillion (87 percent of Asia)
By 2050 their share in population is expected to fall to 73 percent of Asia, while the share of GDP rises to 90 percent. These seven economies alone will account for 45 percent of global GDP.
Their average per capita income of $45,800 (PPP) would be 25 percent higher than the global average of $36,600.
The Asia-7 Economics
2010 GDP (MER trillions)
2050 GDP (MER trillions)
PRC 5.7 62.9
India 1.4 40.4
Indonesia 0.7 11.4
Japan 5.4 8.2
Republic of Korea
1.0 3.7
Thailand 0.3 3.2
Malaysia 0.2 2.6
Total Asia-7 14.8 132.4
By 2034, the economic centre of Asia could account for 57% of global output.
Despite three giant economies (China, India, and Japan), ASEAN countries like Indonesia and Viet Nam would also have significant economic mass.
Thailand and Malaysia could have economies larger than France has today.
The ASEAN Resurgence
World Economic Output Over 50 Years, 1984 – 2034
(2005 PPP Dollars)
Source: OECD, January 2010
Technological advance
Catch-up technology in a group of fast-growing
converges who are in the midst of a process of shifting resources from low to higher
productivity activities.
Capital accumulation Country specific
demographic changes of the 15-64 age group.
Asia-Pacific has the biggest share (25.1%) of Twitter users in the world
Four of top ten countries with the highest Twitter penetration are in Asia-Pacific (Japan, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore)
Indonesia at 19% has the 4th highest proportion of its home and work Internet audience visiting Twitter.com
ASEAN as a Dynamic Region: Changing Lifestyle
ASEAN as a Dynamic Region: Changing Lifestyle
Asia-Pacific region has 122 million users or 18% of worldwide Facebook users
35 million of these Asia-Pacific users are in Indonesia
Indonesia has the 2nd largest Facebook users in the world.
A survey result by AmCham in 2011 states that ASEAN markets importance is to increase in global business in the next 2 years (from 70% in 2010 to 73% in 2011)
There has been business expansion in ASEAN in the past 2 years
Most business in ASEAN plan to expand in the next 2 years, with Indonesia and Viet Nam as the most popular countries for expansion.
ASEAN integration is key for ASEAN companies to ASEAN to do business and grow in the region.
Importance of ASEAN to the World: Increase in Global Business
Every year there are over 71,359 ships passing the Malacca Strait, carrying 1/3 of world’s sea trade.
The biggest contribution to volume of traffic in Malacca Strait comes from container vessel, followed by oil tankers.
There are 5 international ports in the area: Singapore, Klang (near Kuala Lumpur), Johor, Penang, and Belawan (Medan)
There are also a number of smaller ports and ferry terminals that have significant value to the area.
There is a large ship passing the Malacca Strait every 7 to 8 minutes everyday.
Importance of ASEAN to the World: Malacca Strait
ASEAN Member Countries have committed to the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community by 2015
With AEC, ASEAN will transform into:
A single market and production base
A highly competitive economic region
A region of equitable economic development
A region fully integrated into the global economy
ASEAN Will Still Continue To Grow
Physical Institutional People to People
Key
Strategies
1. ASEAN Highway Network (AHN)
2. SK Railway Link (SKRL)
3. Inland Waterway Network (INL)
4. Maritime Transport Network (MTN)
5. Multimodal Transport for Transport Hub in
the Region (MULTI)
6. ICT Infrastructures & Services (ICT)
7. Resolve Institutional Issues in Energy
Infrastructure Project (ENERGY)
1. Framework Agreement on Transport
Facilitation (FATF)
2. Inter-State passanger land
transportation (LT)
3. ASEAN Single Aviation market (ASAM)
4. ASEAN Single Shipping Market
(ASSM)
5. Eliminate barriers for Trade (TRADE)
6. Competitive logistics sector (LOG)
7. Trade Facilitation (TF)
8. Border Management (BOR)
9. Open Investment (INV)
10. Institutional Capacity and Regional-
Sub regional Coordination (INS)
1. Intra ASEAN Social &
Cultural Understanding
(SOC-CUL)
2. Intra ASEAN People
Mobility (MOB)
TOTAL: 7 Key Strategies TOTAL: 10 Key Strategies TOTAL: 2 Key Strategies
Key
Actions
1. AHN – 5 Key Actions
2. SKRL – 4 Key Actions
3. INL- 1 Key Actions
4. MTN – 1 Key Actions
5. MULTI – 4 Key Actions
6. ICT – 7 Key Actions
7. ENERGY – 6+4 Key Actions
1. FATF – 4 Key Actions
2. LT – 2 Key Actions
3. ASAM – 5 Key Actions
4. ASSM – 1 Key Actions
5. TRADE – 4 Key Actions
6. LOG – 2 Key Actions
7. TF – 6 Key Actions
8. BOR – 3 Key Actions
9. INV – 2 Key Actions
10. INS – 3 Key Actions
1. SOC-CUL – 10 Key
Actions
2. MOB – 10 Key Actions
TOTAL: 32 Key Actions
TOTAL: 32 Key Actions
TOTAL: 20 Key Actions
Key Strategies for Enhanced ASEAN Connectivity
Physical Connectivity
•Completion of the ASEAN Highway Network (AHN) – Land Transport
•Completion of the Singapore – Kunming Rail Link (SKRL) – Land Transport
•Establish ASEAN Broadband Corridor (ABC) – ICT
•Malaka – Pekan Baru Interconnection – Energy
•West Kalimantan – Sarawak Interconnection – Energy
•Study on RORO Network and Short Sea Shipping – Maritime Transport
Institutional Connectivity
•Develop and Operationalize Mutual Recognition Arrangements (MRAs) – Free Flow of Goods
•Establishing Common Rules for Standards and Conformity Assessment Procedures – Free Flow of Goods
•Operationalize all National Single Windows (NSWs) by 2012 – Free Flow of Goods/ASEAN Single Window
•Options for a Framework Modality towards Phased Reduction and Elimination of Scheduled Investment Restrictions – Free Flow of Investments
•Operationalization of the ASEAN Agreements on Transport Facilitation – Transport Facilitation
People-to-People Connectivity
•Easing Visa Requirements for ASEAN Nationals – Movement of People, Tourism
•Development of ASEAN Virtual Learning Resource Centres (AVLRC) – Culture
•Develop ICT Skills Standards – ICT
•ASEAN Community Building Programme – Culture, Education
15 Priorities Projects for ASEAN Connectivity
To connect archipelagic ASEAN, a study for the ASEAN RORO network and Short- Sea Shipping in ongoing and due to be completed in 2012 for implementation thereafter. This network should cover areas which have limited or no access to international trade lanes, thus giving them ability to participate in regional trade.
Completion of SKRL (Singapore – Kunming Rail Link) is due in 2020, possibly to extend to Surabaya, Indonesia. When these links are built, the mainland of ASEAN will be connected.
AHN (ASEAN Highway Network) is targeted for completion in 2015. This connectivity will also extend beyond ASEAN, with plans to extend the AHN to China and India.
US Continue to be in problem – USA lost its AAA rating for the first time – continue economic problem post housing bubble burst. High unemployment
Eurozone problem – with Greek debt problem, Spain, and Italy
Japan continue to struggle with post-Tsunami and Nuclear Crisis – coupled with political turmoil
Never in the recent hitory 3 of 4 largest world economic center are in serious problem
Even though the world is entering into recession however impact to the Emerging Asia is relatively mild
Foreign banks withdrawn their
funds from emerging market
The global crisis in the United States and Europe forcing foreign banks to
withdraw their funds from ASEAN to fill their internal
balance
Negative sentiment of the investors
The global crisis cause the economic
uncertainty, so investors tend to move their funds
into safer investments
Government to set priorities
The Government should restore the credibility
and confidence – market is expecting for radical
measure.
Equilibrium if domestic connectivity is strong
Resource drain if domestic connectivity is weak, thus the gap remains or widens.
Negative implications possibly occur in the early period of a well-connected region. It is possible that the larger economies will crowd out the smaller economies.
The negative effects could be subsequently diminished, when smaller economies reorganize themselves around their larger counterparts.
Challenge #2: Resource Drain
Lagging Region
Advanced Region
Connectivity
Labor
Capital
• Human capital development, deeper engagement of local companies in the production networks
Develop Regional Capacity
• Through proactive approach in engaging external partners, strengthen its centrality role to pursue wider cooperation schemes with external partners, and raise voice and influence on critical issues in international forum
Engage ASEAN Centrality
• Make the economies resilient against shocks and strive to be green, through resiliency in resource security (incl. food), carbon reduction policies
Sustainable Development
• Treat the region (or pockets of the region) as a special case with extra accountability measures would augment the region’s attractiveness amongst foreign investors
Clearing administrative
bottlenecks
• Enhancing connectivity and remove bottlenecks Inclusiveness
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