keep it positive: using competitive intelligence to enhance business development
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Keep it positiveUsing competitive intelligence to enhance business development
Eric GarlandCompetitive Futures, Inc@ericgarland#scip09
Why we’re here
I DON’T WANT YOU TO BE FIRED
I WANT YOU TO HAVE MORE BUDGET
I WANT YOU TO SEE THE UPSIDE OF CHANGE FOR FUN AND PROFIT
•State of competitive intelligence, scenario planning, futures
•Executive psychology of positive & negative information
•Frameworks to combine CI & business development
•Exercises you can take home
What we will talk about
WHY IS IT SO EASY TO FIRE/IGNORE INTELLIGENCE?
Perfect, now we can get back to improving “shareholder value”
5 – 15 years1 – 5 yrs.
TodayMajor
demographic shiftsCompetitive
product launches
Industry dynamics
Technology revolutions
Political movements
Infrastructure investment/
collapse
Stock performance
Regulatory response
Sales data
Consumer preferences
Personnel retention
The Future Intelligence Method
5 – 15 years
Aging populationsGlobal climate changeDisruptive technologiesGlobalization
1 – 5 yrs.
Plan for loss of talented workforce?Upcoming restrictive environmental legislation?Emergence of “world-class” Asian industries?
Today
Hire new people
Launch new business
Form partnership
What to do with future intelligence
EXECUTIVES:There is only one fundamental question today:
Is this incremental adjustment...
or is this transformative change?
Transformation sounds nice, but...
Welcome to the future! Your old business model is
trashed!
Transformative change and business models
Business Model A
Business Model B
Wildcards
Trends
1 - 5 years
Today: Making money
Future: Maybe making money
Transformative change and business models
Wildcards
Trends
1 - 5 years
Today: Making money
Future: Maybe making money
MY LAST COUPLE OF YEARS: 2007 - 2008
Anyhow, all I was saying was doubling the that Case-Shiller
Index is bad for banking, why is everyone freaking out?
TIME TO GET HAPPYFor CI to survive and
thrive it must blend with psychological reality and focus on
business development, not just Cold War “enemy tracking”
PSYCHOLOGY OF BAD NEWS/GOOD NEWS
Two fundamental insights:
The brain is designed for fear. Companies profit from opportunities.
Gain maximization is more attractive than risk management.
NOTICE: these are at odds.
THE WETWARE
Stone age design
Modern world
“Our updated simulations continue to illustrate that the long-term fiscal outlook is unsustainable.
Despite a 3-year decline in the unified budget deficit, the federal government still faces large and growing structural deficits driven primarily by rising health care costs and known demographic trends.
Last month, a baby boomer claimed Social Security retirement benefits for the first time, and this cohort will be eligible for Medicare benefits in less than 3 years. According to the Social Security Administration nearly 80 million Americans will become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits over the next two decades--an average of more than 10,000 per day. Although Social Security is important because of its size, the real driver of the long-term fiscal outlook is health care spending. Medicare and Medicaid are both large and projected to continue growing rapidly in the future.”
How does the brain handle long-term threats?
Former Comptroller General
David Walker
HUMANS PREFER POTENTIAL GAIN TO RISK REDUCTION
Cost: $5Potential gain: $1,000,000Likely outcome: -$5
Cost: $9Potential gain: $100 Likely outcome: $50 - 100
THREE CULTURES OF NEWS INTERPRETATION
Good News Bad News Academic
GOOD NEWS CULTURE
•American, Western Europe
•Best news gets to the boss, more money invested in upside
•Negative implications = “not a team player”
•Best case: Put man on moon, entrepreneurial spirit
•Worst case: Run into brick walls at 300 mph
“Leverage the bank to 40 times over fractional
reserve? Sounds like a plan for financial success to me,
boss!”
BAD NEWS CULTURE
•Finland, Korea, anyplace regularly invaded
•Worst news gets to boss first, alternate plans made
•Negative implications = looking out for tribe
•Best case: React quickly to threats
•Worst case: Alcoholism, pickled herring consumption “Hi, do you have any unguarded
monasteries around?”
ACADEMIC
•Government agencies, France
•News arrives once a year
•Negative implications = To be discussed to full depth of Cartesian logic
•Best case: Well considered ideas, less susceptible to fad. Also, liberal vacation time.
•Worst case: Minitel vs. Internet
“We are not amused”
TECHNIQUES TO CONNECT CI TO $$$
IF YOU CAN’T HEAR THE CASH REGISTER RING NEAR YOUR DESK, THERE IS NO ROI
GET NEAR THE MONEY:Support SALES
Give insights to BIZ DEVELOPMENT or PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
Uh, this isn’t futures studies, it’s BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
5 – 15 years1 – 5 yrs.
TodayMajor
demographic shifts
Technology revolutions
Political movements
Infrastructure investment/
collapse
10,000 business
ideas
100 good ideas
10 launches
one billion dollar
business
CONNECTING MARKET ANALYSIS TO $$$
Capital assets
IP
Brand
Cash Flow
Current business
model1 - 3 year forecast
3 - 10 year Delta
Current Forecasts
Competitive Trends
Implications Scenarios
CI Advanced CI
Connect insight back to business
TURN HORRIBLE SCENARIOS INTO BUSINESS IDEAS
“When life hands you lemons, make
lemonade. Next, find someone to whom life handed vodka.
Now, you have a party.”
-Ron White
The Lemonade Questionnaire
1. Pick a transformative trend
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for good, bad or indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.
4. Do your current assets match this reality?
5. Which companies are best poised to create new businesses - if none, will there be start-ups?
6.Where are your competitors? Do they even matter?
GET READY FOR HORRIBLE NEWS AND THINK ABOUT HOW TO
MAKE $$$.
What’s a bubble and what’s a strategic trend
Education
Housing
Retail
Water shortage Infotech
increases in power
Talent crisis
Aging
THE BUBBLE:
Credit
THE REAL TRENDS:
Why we’re taking a trip to the YEAR 1998
FLAT from here on
Derived from debt alone
MASSIVELY EXTENDED CREDIT. Just in the United States.
Great depression, New Deal
Housing, leveraged business deals, Iraq
spending, credit cards, student loans
Debt vs. GDP
The housing sector will collapse,or inflation will rise to meet it
U.S. retail glut likely to collapse
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy
1.12.32.5
3.3
20.2
Square footage retail per person Source: Shopping Centers Today
Commercial real estate to collapse(actually, just its value)
Funny growth, given our GDP remaing flat, wages staying flat, moving
manufacturing base to Asia
Education prices, fueled by debt,will drop or lose enrollment
Aging populations
Healthcare budgets will explode:U.S. expenditures from $2 trillion to $4 trillion
That stings a little...
Well, I’m sucking
$400,000 out of your
blood.
Talent crunch - YES, STILL
Cities to create even more GDP; Rural areas left behind
Cities will have 52% of the population, 90% of the GDP by 2015
Immigration of billions of young people
Infotech: More powerful, radically cheaper (still!)
Energy still scarce, even with recession
Over capacity = stable
Barely over capacity: speculation, price fluctuation
Water scarce around the world
Mexico city
Near East:Jordan, Syria, Israel – drinking from the same aquifer!
Egypt
Andalucia
Subsaharan Africa
Ogalalla Acquifer
N.S.W. Australia
China - $11 billion in lost manufacturing due to polluted water!
U.S. retail glut likely to collapse
0
7.5
15
22.5
30
U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy
1.12.32.5
3.3
20.2
Square footage retail per person Source: Shopping Centers Today
The Lemonade Questionnaire:RETAIL
1. Assume a scenario in which retail space shrinks by 40%
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for good, bad or indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.
4. Which companies are best poised to create new businesses - if none, will there be start-ups?
5. Where are your competitors? Do they even matter?
YOUR QUESTIONS
Let’s stay in touch and really discuss this
• Forum: competitivefutures.ning.com
• Twitter: @ericgarland
• Blog: www.competitivefutures.com/blog
• Phone: 202.508.1496
• In person: 1317 F St. NW, Washington DC, about a block from the guys giving away nine trillion dollars
Thanks for coming!
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