kashmir policy briefing

THE KASHMIR INSURGENCY

Briefing for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations Subcommittee on International Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Human Rights

Photo by Bhisham Pratap Prada. Used under Creative Commons license.

FlashpointEstimated Toll of “Limited” Nuclear War

Killed Severely Injured

INDIA

Bangalore 315000 175000

Bombay 478000 229000

Calcutta 357000 198000

Madras 364000 196000

New Delhi 177000 94000

India Total 1.7 m 0.9m

PAKISTAN

Faisalabad 336000 174000

Islamabad 154000 67000

Karachi 240000 127000

Lahore 258000 150000

Rawalpindi 184000 97000

Pakistan Total 1.2m 0.6 m

TOTAL 2.9 m 1.5 m

U.S. Interests

1. Avoidance of a nuclear exchange in South Asia

2. Use of Kashmir by Islamic extremists • to distract Pakistan from Al-Qaida• As a training and recruiting ground

3. Violations by both Islamic militants and Indian security forces of:

• Human rights• Democratic process• The right of self-determination

86,000 square miles

56,000 controlled by India

30,000 controlled by Pakistan

Bordered by Pakistan, Afghanistan and China

Demography

Indian-administered Kashmir

10.1 million

REGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim

Kashmir Valley

4% 95%

Jammu 66% 30%

Ladakh 50% - 46%

Pakistan-administered Kashmir Population unknown

REGION Buddhist Hindu Muslim

North Areas

99%

Azad Kashmir

99%

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

1846. Jammu and Kashmir created1947. Partition and “Document of

Accession”1949. First Indo-Pak War. 1957. Kashmiri constitution.1962. Sino-Indian War1965. 2nd Indo-Pak War1971. 3rd Indo-Pak War. “Line of

Control”1980. Kashmiri insurgency1998. India and Pakistan test nuclear

weapons1999. Kargill Conflict2001. Terrorist attack on Indian

parliament

PLAYERS

1.India

2.Pakistan

3.China

4.Kashmiri

groups

Pakistan’s Role

Pakistan does not recognize the legitimacy of Kashmir’s accession to India.

Anti-India terrorist groups continue to operate from within Pakistan

Although in 2001 Pakistan rejected insurgency, it is believed to have offered support and training for several uprisings.

Kashmiri Separatist OrganizationsMain Armed Militant GroupsHizbul Mujahideen Pro-Pak/Islamic vision of Kashmir

Lashkar e-Taiba Ahle Hadith/wants Pan-Islamic state

Jaish e-Muhammad Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state

Harkat ul-Mujahideen Deobandi/wants Pan-Islamic state

J&K Liberation Front Kashmiriyat

Political Umbrella GroupsAll Parties Hurriyat Conf. Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat

Muttahida Jihad Council Supports pro-Pakistan militants

Main Kashmiri PartiesJ&K People’s Conference Kashmiriyat

J&K Liberation Front Kashmiriyat

Jamaat e-Islami (K) Some pro-Pakistan, some Kashmiriyat

Jamaat e-Islami (P) Pro-Pakistan

India’s RolePolitical Position

1. Jammu and Kashmir are integral parts of India2. State would have been settled long ago but for

Pakistan’s “terrorist proxy war.”

Handling of Insurgency1. Massive security force in Kashmir2. Entice moderate political leaders to participate in

state government3. Prevent conflict from requiring international

intervention

No International Mediation is Permissible1. Risk of neo-Colonialism2. Foreign nations do not have India’s interests at heart3. Violation of national sovereignty

Policy Principles

1. Each stakeholder must be able to claim some benefit from the settlement

2. The insurgency must be recognized as a key player in the region.

3. Human rights, democratic process and the right to self-determination must be respected.

Scenario One:Formalize Status Quo

• Confirms Simla Agreement• India has supported• Rejected by Pakistan• Rejected by Independence

Movement

Scenario Two:Kashmir Joins Pakistan

• Supported by Pakistan• Rejected by India• Ignores Kashmiriyat

independence movement(s)

• Buddhist and Hindu populations forced into Pakistani citizenship

Scenario 3:Kashmir Joins India

• Supported by India• Rejected by Pakistan• Ignores Kashmiriyat independence movements

• Muslims of Azad regions forced into Indian citizenship

Scenario 4:Independent Kashmir

• Rejected by Pakistan• Rejected by India• Opposed by many

Buddhist and Hindu Kashmiris

• Supported by many independent “Kashmiriyat” groups

• Raises international concerns over• regional “Balkanization”• Economic instability

THE ANDORRA SOLUTION

Scenario 5:Smaller Independent Kashmir

Advantages• Leaves Pakistan and India in control of Chinese borders

• Creates an independent Kashmir• Leaves Pakistan in control of some Muslim regions

• Leaves India in control of Hindu and Buddhist regions

• Allows tourism from both states• Encourages investment by both states• Reduction of insurgent pressures

Disadvantages• Loss of control of some land by both Pakistan and India.• Reduces Indian control of potential terrorist threat.

Policy Recommendations

Members of the U.S. House should:

1.Pressure Pakistan on terrorism

2.Continue visits to Kashmir

3.Emphasize U.S. anti-terrorism commitment to India

4.Open dialogue with non-militant Kashmiri political groups

QUESTIONS