kansas and climate change johan feddema & nate brunsell, ku department of geography presentation...

Kansas and Climate ChangeJohan Feddema & Nate Brunsell,

KU Department of Geography

Presentation to the Kansas Energy Council’s

MGA Committee, Feb. 21, 2008

What is Climate Science

What is Climate Science• Understanding of the movement of energy into,

through, and out of the Earth System

• Based on physics through the processes of:• Electromagnetic radiation

• Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat)

• Convective transport of water vapor

Background: The Climate System

Source: IPCC 2007

So what are we worried about?

Humans develop as species

{19001958

2005

Ice Age

Present

Future?

1900

Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs

0.7 ºC

100 years

Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs5-8 ºC

18,000 years

Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs?

Last Glacial Maximum

Domestication of plants and animals

Industrial revolution begins

Climate Simulation: How good are the models?

Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

Climate projections: What is to come?

Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data)

Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°C per decade)

IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32

Anomalies

relative

to 1980-99

Climate projections: Global Temperature

Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent

SourcesNSIDCNCAR

Simulated

Observed

Greenland

Russia

Scandinavia

Alaska

Canada

Alaska

Greenland

Russia

+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D = 95S = 246

+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D =151S = 188

+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D = 69S = 302Present Day Normal D = 47

S = 304

2050

Kansas Climate projections

Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W)

2100+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D =107S = 255

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase

3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)

+ 1.5 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D = 383S = 0

2050

Kansas Climate projectionsD = Annual Deficit (mm)S = Annual Surplus (mm)

Western Kansas (37N, 95W)

2100

+ 2 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D = 433S = 0

+ 3 C all months+ 5% Precipitation

D =463S = 0

+ 4 C all months+ 0% Precipitation

D =540S = 0

Source: IPCC 2007J. Feddema University of Kansas

Precipitation

Potential Evapotranspiration

D = 330S = 0

IPCC A1B Scenario Middle of the road Scenario

3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase

3% annual P increase (summer -3% P)

QUESTIONS?

CLIMATE SYSTEM

Mechanisms of Climate Change

What Causes Climate to Change• Solar variation (input to the system)• How energy travels through and is partitioned

in the atmosphere (Greenhouse Effect)• How energy is partitioned at the surface• Storage and release of energy in various

components of the earth system (e.g. Oceans)

Background: Human Climate Interactions

Human impacts on the climate system

Agriculture

Grazing

Natural Vegetation?

Urban

De/Re-forestationSoil

Degradation

Atmospheric Composition

Solar Variation

Keven Trenberth, NCAR

How reliable are climate models

z

342

324

390

16540

235

30

0

7824

67

107

30

77

168

Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235

Sensible Heat

Latent Heat

Evapo-transpiration

Conduction

Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds

Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere

Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window

Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere

Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface

Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere

350

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation

Thermal heating

IncomingSolar Radiation

Shortwave

ReflectedShortwave radiation

by Clouds Aerosols

and Gases

ReflectedShortwave radiation

by Surface

AbsorbedShortwave radiation

by Surface

AbsorbedShortwave radiation

by Atmosphere

ReflectedShortwave radiation

Global Average Energy Balance

Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

z

342

324

390

16540

235

30

0

7824

67

107

30

77

168

Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0

Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235

Sensible Heat

Latent Heat

Evapo-transpiration

Conduction

Long-wave Radiationfrom Clouds

Long-wave Radiationfrom Atmosphere

Long-wave RadiationAtmospheric Window

Longwave RadiationAbsorbed by Atmosphere

Longwave RadiationEmmited by Surface

Long-wave RadiationEmitted byAtmosphere

350

Outgoing Long-wave Radiation

Thermal heating

IncomingSolar Radiation

Shortwave

ReflectedShortwave radiation

by Clouds Aerosols

and Gases

ReflectedShortwave radiation

by Surface

AbsorbedShortwave radiation

by Surface

AbsorbedShortwave radiation

by Atmosphere

ReflectedShortwave radiation

Global Average Energy Balance

39

234

351 2

1

166

326

79

391

Atmosphere Energy Balance:67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30

235

352

16679 326352

79391326

Effects of CO2 on Energy Balance

Sources:Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission_png Gordley et al. (1994). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 52 (5).  Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) Bull. Am. Meteor. Assoc. 78.  Lashof (1989). Climatic Change 14 (3): 213-242.  Rothman et al. (2004). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 96.  Peixoto and Oort (1992). Physics of Climate. Springer

Kansas Historical Records

Source: IPCC 2007

Global Climate over the last century

Source: IPCC 2007

Figure 10.18

Figure 10.19

Figure 11.12

How to lie with Statistics (or maps)

1977 to 2007

Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degF Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade

1930 to 2007Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degF Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade

Kansas Temperature Changes

SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

1895 to 2007Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degF Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade

Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 31.54 degF Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.21 degF / Decade

Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 76.50 degF Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.04 degF / Decade

Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 55.87 degF Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade

Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 53.23 degF Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 degF / Decade

SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

Spring

WinterFall

Summer

Kansas Temperature Changes: Seasonal

Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 Inches Annual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade

Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 Inches Annual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade

Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 Inches Annual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade

Kansas Precipitation Changes

SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

1895-2007

1930-2007

1977-2007

Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Average = 2.53 Inches Winter (Dec-Feb) 1896 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade

Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Average = 6.18 Inches Fall (Sep-Nov) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.02 Inches / Decade

Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Average = 10.64 Inches Summer (Jun-Aug) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.05 Inches / Decade

Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Average = 8.14 Inches Spring (Mar-May) 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.12 Inches / Decade

SourceNational Climate Data Centerhttp://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

Spring

WinterFall

Summer

Kansas Precipitation Changes: Seasonal

HISTORICAL FORCINGS

Climate Science

How can we know climate is changing and what is causing it?• Observations

• Surface observation networks (weather stations etc)• Balloon observations • Satellites• Geologic and other evidence

• Use models to simulate processes and evaluate the combinations of independent factors driving climate change

• This is expensive and requires national/international level resources • Form the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• Contributions from over 2500 scientists from around the world• 23 Global Climate Models (GCMs) (+ many more specialized models)• Some of the worlds fastest supercomputers (Earth Simulator)

• IPCC has produced 4 reports freely available at (www.ipcc.ch)• 1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007• Reports are a summary of the state of knowledge from reviewed literature

Sources:Globawarmingart.com

www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers_png Hoyt and Schatten (1998a) Solar Physics 179: 189-219.  Hoyt, and Schatten (1998b) Solar Physics 181: 491-512.  Stott et al. (2003) Journal of Climate 16: 4079-4093. 

Recent Climate Variable Trends: Observations

Sources:Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png Brohan, et al. (2006) J. Geophaysical Research 111: D12106Luo etal. (2002 J Clim 15: 2806-2820

Sources:Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png Irradiance:/www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant International sunspot number:/www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html Flare index: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/readme.html 10.7cm radio flux: www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml

QUESTIONS?

Why are climate Scientists concerned?

What is the big deal with Global Warming?• We are observing human induced changes in the

system that we know to affect climate.• Atmospheric composition (CO2, Methane, aerosols, etc.)

• Land cover change that affects CO2 and energy partitioning

• We are seeing changes in the climate and related systems that suggest we are in a transition

• Temperature records

• Sea ice records

• Biological systems

700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0Age (yr BP)

400

500

600

700

800

CH

4 (p

pb

v)

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

(

°C)

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

CO

2 (p

pm

v)

Climate and Greenhouse Gases during the last 650 Kyrs

375 ppm v

1700 ppbv

EPIC A D om e CInderm uehle et a l (subm itted)EP IC A pro ject m em bers (2004)Spahni et a l (subm itted)

VostokPépin e t a l ( 2001)Petit e t a l (1999)D elm otte et a l (2004)

Higher CO2 in the Past – Absolutely!

Permian Crash

Extinction ofDinosaurs

Terrestrial plants

But it was a different world

SourcesGlobalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png

Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science 301: 182-204.  Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science 304: 397–437.  Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes 19: 3-5.  Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. PressRothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences 99 (7): 4167-4171.  Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com

MODEL VALIDATION

Timeline of Climate Model Development

T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

MODEL PROJECTIONS?

Climate Change Attribution

Climate Change Scenarios:

At any point in time, we are committed to additional warming and sea level rise from the radiative forcing already in the system.

Warming stabilizes after several decades, but sea level from thermal expansion continues to rise for centuries.

Each emission scenario has a warming impact.

(Meehl et al., 2005: How much more warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772)

BACKGROUNDS STATISTICS

Regional sources of emissions

Greenhouse gas sources