jostein dahl karlsen chair, working party for fossil fuels, wpff international energy agency energy...

Jostein Dahl KarlsenChair, Working Party for Fossil Fuels, WPFF International Energy Agency

Energy Perspectives

Annual Petroleum Research School of Norway PhD Seminar24 November,

Norwegian Petroleum Museum, Stavanger

Points

• Global Trends

• Regional Developments

• Oil and Gas & Technology

3

Nord Amerika

S. & Sentr. Amerika

Asia

Midt Østen

Afrika

Europa og Eurasia

-1000 -500 0 500 1000

-295.4

75.8

-992.1

961.0

282.5

-43.5

-7.3

11.0

-121.3

123.0

84.1

-43.1

Gass Væske

Mill. tonn o.e

Liquids

Asia

South and Central America

North America

Oil and Gas a strategic commodity

Gas

Europe and Eurasia

Africa

Middle East

Net Regional Import and Export Capacities

Source: BP

Uncertainty of Opec capacityexpansion

Importance of Non-OECD energy growth

Modernization – basis for global energy growth in the long term

Energy consumption vs per capita income, by region

Global Energy Developments1980 - 2035

Primary energy demand – a continued surge by all fuels

Tracking clean energy progress

Policy Scenarios match different energy futures

99

The world's remaining energy resources will not constrain the projected energy demand growth to 2035 & beyond, but large-scale of investment is required

Fossil energy resources by type

Total remaining recoverable resources

Proven reserves

Cumulative production to date

Coal Natural gas Oil

3 050 years

233 years178 years

142 years

61 years 54 years

Gas to become first fuel- with role of LNG on the rise

Source: WEO 2014

Long term gas supply cost curve

Volumes faced in through prices that reflects cost

Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies for the 21st Century, IEA 2013

Unconventonional oil and gas - changes the energy landscape

Economic implication of US unconventional revolution

Source: WEO 2014

Cost of gas pipeline transport

Technology can reduce cost - market push is still essential

Source: Resources to Reserves, Oil and Gas Technologies of the 21st Century, IEA 2013

Lock-in of fossil capacity, infrastructure and CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions in ChinaOngoing/recent

capacity expansion in coal fired power in

China reresents +10 GT of CO2 emissions

locked- in

Natural Gas is needed to combat global climate change

Europe:• CO2 emissions up!

Major step towards 2 DS realised if the current

investments in Chinese coal power replaced with gas

by 200 mill. tons CO2 in 2011

IEA WPFF – China MOST collaboration

China Natural GasConsumption vs Production

2121

Gas import mix - China

Recent Russianpipeline deal

22

What’s in the store for future fuels?

Technology Routes – China Gas

Coal to Gas

Global Gas Flows by

Inter-regional trade towards 2018

2727

Gas to Europe

523 800km2

2 140 000 km2

Norwegian Continental Shelf - an important source of supply in the long term

Resources,NCS

Political solution in theHigh North

Russia-Norway disputed zone : agreement after 40 years of negotiations

Sector line

Medianline

Settlementprinciple

Barents Sea

Click icon to add pictureArctic E & P – a remote, but unique opportunity

1: Barents Sea2: Southern Kara Sea and West Siberia3: Northern Kara Sea4: Laptev Sea5: East Siberian Sea6: Chuchi Sea7: Alaska North Slope8: East Greenland

The worlds remainingpetroleum potential

N. AfrikaCaspian SeaMiddle East

Rest ofThe world

Arctic

8

3

2

1 4

5

67

Source: USGS

The Barents Sea Scenario - Long term perspective

(Russia) Norway

Markets

Oil Gas

Addressing techological challenges

Subsea production CompressionCourtesy of FMC Courtesy of Aker Solutions

Upstream Oil

Unconventional resources – a new regional energy future?

Shale and tight oil wells in 2014

Unconventional resources – what is in the store for productionGlobally?

Presented by Schlumberger at IEA Gas and Oil Technology InitiativeUnconventional Technology Forum, Colorado School of Mines, 29 October 2014

37

Time to step up information

exchange?

3838

IEA Gas and Oil Technology Initiative

• Established in 2013 to provide information exchange on issues of strategic importance

• Global Initiative - interest from major regions; - North America/Americas, Europe, Asia/Asia Pacific

• International roll-out currently ongoing

Highlights: www.gotia.org

Thank you for your attention