johanna duffy barton & loguidice, d.p.c. · northern hemisphere snow cover projected to...
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Johanna Duffy Barton & Loguidice, D.P.C.
www.climate-change-guide.com
By 2100, the average U.S. temperature is projected to increase by 4°F to 11°F
Hot days are expected to increase and be hotter
EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html
Northern areas will become wetter and southern areas will become drier
Heavy precipitation events will increase in frequency
Hurricanes are projected to increase in intensity
Simulations project precipitation changes for the end of this century under a high emission scenario (USGCRP 2009)
EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html
Northern Hemisphere snow cover projected to decrease by approx. 15% by 2100
Since 1870, sea level has risen about 8 inches
A 2-foot rise in global sea level is predicted by 2100
Simulations show projected sea ice thickness for March and September under current conditions (A & B) and ice thickness by 2100 (C & D) (NRC 2011)
March September
EPA – Future Climate Change www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html
NYS Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA)
Modeling climate change impacts in NYS
2011 ClimAID Report, 2014 Update
Columbia University, Cornell University, City University of New York
Updated analyses to consider trends and projections within NYS for temperature, precipitation, extreme events, and sea level rise.
Higher average temperatures
Changing precipitation patterns
Sea level rise Increase in frequency
of extreme weather events
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Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.
Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.
Horton, R., D. Bader, C. Rosenzweig, A. DeGaetano, and W.Solecki. 2014. Climate Change in New York State: Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information. New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), Albany, New York.
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Preparedness
Actions, programs, and systems implemented prior to disaster events or emergency situations
Response
Actions undertaken to address the immediate and short-term effects of a disaster event or emergency situation
Recovery
Actions, programs, and events executed to help return the community to an acceptable level of function and organization
Mitigation
Long-term actions or strategies whose implementation looks to eliminate or reduce the effects of disasters or emergencies
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 HMP – documentation of a government’s
evaluation of natural hazards and the strategies to mitigate such hazards
Mitigation planning requirements State ▪ Condition of disaster assistance
Local ▪ HMGP funding
▪ Single and Multi-Jurisdiction
Tribal governments
Save lives (reduce number of injuries and/or deaths)
Protect property (reduce extent of damage) Limit economic losses Limit environmental impacts Limit social and psychological impacts Reduce disaster response and recovery costs
Details of the Planning Process Hazard Risk Assessment Hazard Vulnerability Analysis Mitigation Action and Strategy
Development Plan Adoption, Approval,
Implementation, and Maintenance
Teamwork and Collaboration
Local government agencies and organizations
Elected officials
Neighboring communities
Private sector
Academia
State and federal agencies
General public
Hazard Risk Assessment
Identify hazards
Profile hazards
Hazard Vulnerability Analysis
Inventory assets
Estimate potential losses
Analyze development trends
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www.sidneychamber.org
Natural Avalanche Drought Earthquake Epidemic Extreme temperatures Flood Hurricane Ice jam Ice storm Infestation Landslide Severe storm Tornado Tsunami-wave action Wildfire Winter storm (severe)
Technological and human-caused Air contamination Blight Civil unrest Dam failure Explosion Fire Food shortage Fuel shortage Hazardous material – fixed site Hazardous material – in transit Mine collapse Oil spill Radiological – fixed site Radiological – in transit Structural collapse Terrorism Transportation accident Utility failure Water supply contamination
Develop mitigation goals and objectives Identify and prioritize mitigation actions
Prevention
Property protection
Structural projects
Natural resources protection
Emergency services
Public education and awareness
Action and strategy implementation
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Adoption
Participating jurisdictions formally adopt by Board resolution
Approval
Submitted to FEMA by state emergency management office/agency
Implementation
Monitor progress annually
Maintenance
Update and resubmit every 5 years
Dynamic planning document Community focus on
vulnerabilities Mitigation actions and strategies
identified Participating jurisdictions eligible for HMGP funding www.fws.gov
Review climate change projections and compare to the hazards assessed in the HMP
How will potential hazard impacts change? How will the vulnerabilities of each participating
jurisdiction change?
Propose mitigation actions and strategies that consider the long-term effects of climate change
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Type Policy, operations, infrastructural, behavioral
Involved parties Public, private - Levels of government involved
Effort Cost Timing Scale
Widespread, clustered, isolated Benefits and Consequences Resiliency
Heavy rainfalls to increase Localized flash flooding to increase Flooding may increase water pollution Water temperatures to increase Summer precipitation to decrease Reduced flows on larger rivers
www.blogs.jpl.nasa.gov
Establish and promote undeveloped stream buffers
Property acquisition – repetitive flood loss Upgrade CSO systems
Establish drainage basin commissions
Drought management plans
Heavy rainfalls to increase
Changes in annual precipitation
Sea level rise Temperatures to
increase Great Lakes ice cover
to decrease
www.weather.gov - Newsday
Elevate or re-route infrastructure out of flood zones
Pumping equipment availability Culvert assessments – hydraulic analyses Changes in engineering design specifications
www.cortlandwastewater.org www.adirondackalmanack.com
Natural progression of hazard mitigation planning to incorporate and consider climate change implications
Adapting mitigation actions to
include climate change considerations increases chances for implementation
Climate change has the
potential to affect many different resources and divisions – promotes collaboration and sharing of resources
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