jenny n. braat - oecd braat sea europe.pdf · jenny n. braat managing director of danish maritime...

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Jenny N. Braat Managing Director of Danish Maritime

Chairman of

SEA Europe Working Group on Market & Forecast

The surface of the globe consists of 70% water

The world coastline is 356.000 km long

7 bn people live on Earth

UN expects a global population

of 9.7 bn in 2050

40% of the world’s population

lives within 100 kilometers of the coast.

90% of all trade is transported by sea

The future will need maritime knowhow

on how to use the SEA

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Global Commercial Shipbuilding Situation

Source: IHS Maritime

Agenda • Introduction

• The Market Today

• Forecasting to 2030

• Conclusions

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Source: IHS Maritime

Global Orderbook by Main Building Areas in CGT Terms Evolution of the Global Orderbook by Ship Types

Source: IHS Maritime

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Source: Clarkson

Global Orderbook per Vessel Type and Building Area

Source: Clarkson

Orderbook Market Shares in Terms of Value (1 October 2013)

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Source: Clarkson

New Orders Market Shares in Terms of Value (Vessels Ordered in 3Q 2013)

Source: Clarkson

Market Shares in Completions in Terms of Value (Vessels Delivered by 3Q 2013)

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Activity of the society – economic,

industrial or other

Trade volumes/routes

Fleet requirement

Fleet expansion requirement

Newbuilding requirement

Transport efficiency

Replacement requirement

Basic Forecasting Methodology

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Growth Growth

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Growth

Source: SEA Europe

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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

The World Fleet 1925-2012 no

Scrapping

Source: IHS Maritime

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Comparing NB Requirement Forecasts

Sources: 2013 association forecasts, ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations

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tal fo

recaste

d n

ew

bu

ild r

eq

uirem

en

t, a

ll sh

ip t

ypes,

mG

T)

Tankers (mGT)

Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations

Tankers (mGT)

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Container ships (mGT)

Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations

Container Ships (mGT)

Bulk carriers (mGT)

Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations

Bulk Carriers (mGT)

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LNG Carriers (mGT)

Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations

LNG Carriers (mGT)

LPG Carriers (mGT)

Sources: ISFEM 2013 memorandum, JECKU EPM 2013 presentations.

LPG Carriers (mGT)

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Offshore Vessels

Number of vessels by contract year

Assumptions:

Assuming stable oil price: 100-115 $/bbl

Higher E&P activity and demand growth

Deeper waters and new requirements

Best outlook for large efficient vessels

Some markets will take a short term hit:

Oversupply a significant risk for PSVs

Slowdown in drillship orders after all time high

Other markets are picking up:

Increased demand for semi submersibles

The market for AHTS will return. 2014?

The effect of DP rigs on AHTS market

Continued strong subsea market

Higher exploration activity and seismic demand

Very difficult to predict the next peak! Data Source: ISFEM 2013

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Capacity Forecast

Source: Forecast Sea Europe, 2013. Note: long term capacity estimate ≠ currently marketed capacity.

**Thank You for Your Attention**