jeeban panthi
Post on 07-Aug-2015
44 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Precipitation Climatology over the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal
1Jeeban Panthi, 1Piyush Dahal, 2Ramchandra Karki 1The Small Earth Nepal, 2Dept of Hydrology and Meteorology
Data used
Source Format Duration
DHM ground observation
Point 1981-2012
APHRODITE (interpolated)
Grid (0.05°) Grid (0.25°)
1961-2004 1961-2007
Precipitation stations from different agro-ecological zones of the basin
Agro-ecological
Zones
Station
Index
Latitude Longitude Elevation Location District
Trans-Himalaya
(>2500m)
610 29.05 83.88 3465 Ghami Mustang
816 28.55 84.23 2680 Chame Manang
Mountain
(>2500m)
806 28.4 84.37 3650 Larke
Samdo
Gorkha
616 28.36 83.13 2530 Gurja
Khani
Myagdi
Hill
(500m-2500m)
814 28.18 83.48 1740 Lumle Kaski
1057 28.01 85.07 1240 Pansayak
hola
Nuwakot
808 27.93 84.42 965 Bandipur Tanahun
Lowland (Terai)
(<500m)
903 27.35 84.32 270 Jhawani Chitwan
920 27.55 84.82 274 Manahar
i
Makwanpur
Precipitation stations from different agro-ecological zones of the basin
APHRODITE Validation (0.05°)
R² = 0.9221
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300
R² = 0.9625
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 1000 2000 3000
R² = 0.9853
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
0 300 600 900 1200 1500
R² = 0.8276
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0
Trans-Himalaya Mountain
Hill Terai
APHRODITE Validation (0.25°)
R² = 0.6913
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 100 200 300
R² = 0.9743
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0
R² = 0.9321
0.0
300.0
600.0
900.0
1200.0
1500.0
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0
R² = 0.8882
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Trans-Himalaya Mountain
Hill Terai
Monthly variation of precipitation
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
1000.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mo
nth
ly p
reci
pit
atio
n (
mm
)
Terai Hill Mountain Trans-Himalaya
Precipitation distribution - spatial
Annual Monsoon
Post monsoon Winter Pre-monsoon
Annual Change in Precipitation (mm)
Agro-ecological
zone Winter
Pre-
monsoon Monsoon Post-monsoon Annual
Trans-Himalaya -0.619 -1.022 1.898 -0.927* -1.654
Mountain -4.717*** -4.675** 2.586 -0.713 -6.293
Hill -0.425+ -0.218 3.233 -0.128 2.745
Terai -0.580 0.908 0.168 -0.435 -0.362
Average basin -1.458** -1.987* 0.419 -0.619 -4.267
Significant at: *** -> 0.001, ** -> 0.01, * -> 0.05, + -> 0.1
Methodology: Sen’s slope and MK test
Precipitation Anomaly
Trend of Rainy Days
y = -0.133x + 281.16
y = 0.3473x - 587.4
y = 0.0645x - 23.471
y = -0.202x + 462.17
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Nu
mb
er
of
rain
y d
ays
Number of Rainy Days around GRB (>2.5mm in a day)
Trans Himalaya Mountain Hill Terai
Monsoon timing
y = -0.0864x + 41975
y = 0.3461x + 41218
y = 0.4325x - 756.97
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
21-May
10-Jun
30-Jun
20-Jul
09-Aug
29-Aug
18-Sep
08-Oct
28-Oct
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Mo
nso
on
du
rati
on
(D
ays)
Monsoon onset Monsoon withdrawl Monsoon duration
Livelihood vulnerability assessment
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
Socio-demogaphicprofile
Livelihood strategies
Social network
Health
Food
Water
Natural disaster
Climate variability
Dhading Syangja Kapilvastu
Conclusion
• Dry seasons and regions are getting dryer
• Precipitation is decreasing in recent decades
• Rainy days are decreasing
• Monsoon withdrawal is getting delayed
Landuse and livestock distribution
Landuse in the Gandaki river basin (GRB)
Livestock distribution in the GRB
Thank you
top related