jared wesley @ipracademic - university of british columbia · 2014. 2. 18. · jared wesley...

Jared Wesley @ipracademic

2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014

The Canadian Provincial Election Project The Election Cycle in Context

l l Macro‐level Patterns to Date BC in Perspective

h d l d Consistency with Federal Wisdom Alignment, Misalignment, Refinement

SSHRC Standard Research Grant plus many, many local sources

Mixed‐Method Project mass survey as the lynchpin

All Ten Provinces Confirmed only NB remaining next cycle under development

Online (panel + IVR‐to‐Web)

Province Sample Size Survey Datesp yPE 509 October 4 to 25, 2011MB 775 October 5 to 31, 2011ON 1044 O t b 7 t 31 2011ON 1044 October 7 to 31, 2011NL 851 October 12 to 30, 2011SK 821 November 8 to 21, 2011AB 897 April 25 to May 15, 2012QC 1009 September 5 to October 11, 2012BC 803 May 15 to 29 2013BC 803 May 15 to 29, 2013NS 797 October 9 to November 3, 2013

N=7506

M l d   liti l  k ti1. Marland: political marketing2. Sampert & Petit‐Vouriot: media politics3. Coletto & Breguet: polling

B k & J   i  fi4. Brock & Jansen: campaign finance5. Roy & McGrane: vote choice models6. Berdahl , Clavelle, McGrane: economic voting

R  P ll  B d   l/ b   ti  7. Roy, Perrella, Borden: rural/urban voting 8. Rounce & Levasseur:  private/public/non‐profit sector voting9. Siaroff & Wesley: turnout over time

Th l k     d 10. Thorlakson: turnout and congruence11. Everitt: representation12. Kanji & Tannahill:  political community

K ji & H ki    l  ffi13. Kanji & Hopkins:  external efficacy

S ill BC1. Summerville BC2. Sayers & Stewart AB3. Rasmussen SK4. Wesley MB5. Anderson ON6 Kanji QC6. Kanji QC7. Levesque NB8. Carbert NS

M l d NL9. Marland NL10. Desserud PE11. White YT, NT, NU

the Great Recession fixed date elections

h f d l l the 2011 federal election

Incumbency Women in leadership

h ll ll Challenges in polling Rural/Urban Split

the permanent campaign exitssupply‐ and demand‐side barriers to women’s 

dand LGBT representationturnout affects polling accuracy

f l ffperformance evals affect community supportblock recursive and valence models work

l b b b d drural/urban/suburban divides existprivate/public/non‐profit voting patterns

ld dtwo‐worlds and turnout

media market logic prevails campaign finance rules affect party competitiveness

economic voting: egocentric factors trump sociotropic ones

turnout is an individual‐level phenomenonl ff h l h blexternal efficacy has no relationship to public 

support

Jared Wesley @ipracademic

2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014

Jared Wesley @ipracademic

2013 Provincial General Election ConferenceUniversity of British Columbia | February 1, 2014