japan's experience for drr & linking drr to sustainable ...disaster risk reduction into...

Japan’s Experience for DRR&

Linking DRR to Sustainable Development by DR2AD Model

Sep 2013

TAKEYA KimioVisiting Senior Advisor of Japan International Cooperation Agency

Takeya.kimio@jica.go.jp

Why Japan can dedicates on DRR

• Japan is the most natural hazardous country in the world.

• In the same time, one of the most technology oriented developed country.

• How Japan coexists or conquereDisaster & Development

1

Japan case

• More than 50% of population, living in the flood plain

• More than 75% of whole asset located in the flood plain

• Without any structure measures, Japan can not survive

• How to prepare excess flood or earthquake

2

Up to 15th Century, Tone River crossed the Kanto Plain from north to south and flew into Tokyo Bay

From 1594 to 1654, Tone River was connected to Pacific Ocean by eastward channel

・After the flood in 1910, flood control measures in upper and middle reaches has changed from “flood control allowing inundation” to “sequential levees confinement”

・After this change, the maximum discharge in the Tone River Channel has increased, which became the main challenge of flood control in Tone River Basin

Tone River

Kinu River

Watarase River

Kokai River

Tone River

Kinu RiverWatarase River

Kokai River

History of flood control in Tone River basin (400years ago)

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Source: Water Disaster Statistics, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

01962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Area inundated (ha)

Number of fatalities and inundation area have dramatically been reduced in Japandue to continuous investment in and efforts for flood mitigation.

Reduction of flood damages in Japan by continuous investment

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

01946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Number of fatalities by flood

How Japan conquered disaster

5

Disaster

DisasterDisaster

Time

Development

Development were Obstructed by

Disasters,

Normal Development

Recovery & Development

At least, Build-back-better

6

Levee

Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures

Investment

Effectiveness

Investment and Effectiveness

Levee

Barrage

Reservoir System

TargetSafety Level

7

Levee

Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures

Investment

Effectiveness

Levee

Barrage

Reservoir System

TargetSafety Level

Climate Variability?Climate Change?

How to prepare excess flood?or Project is not completed yet

After Catastrophic Disaster, Donors make survey

8

• Recent flood case– 2009 Philippines Manila Flood,

– 2010 Pakistan Indus flood

– 2011 Thailand Flood

2009 Philippines PDNA

9

2010 Pakistan PDNA

10

2011 Thailand flood

11

1212

TargetSafety Level

Investment

Effectiveness

Levee

Levee

Barrage

Reservoir System

Structural Measures(Basic Infrastructures)

Non-Structural Measures

Mitigation Adaptation

Control, Protection

Goal

Safe and/or Resilient

Combination of Structural Measuresand Non-Structural Measures

How to invest today?Principle for

low regret investment

13

• Population of damaged area of 3 prefectures,1km from coast is 460,000, 3km 1.0million, 5km 1.5million

• Total causalities were around ≒18,000

• 460,000 residents lived in the tsunami affected area so that evacuation ratio can be estimated more than 96 %

• This high evacuation ratio achieved by legend transmission, by Tsunami Early Warning System and by evacuation drill effort

• 65% of casualties were aged people, over 65 y.o.

Tsunami Evacuation Situation in general

96%> evacuated !!

For the CBDRM project, this is successful case

14

More than 97% evacuated successfully,but local economy was completely destroyed.

Can we say this “resilient”?We need more investment

to prevent disaster

1515

Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters

The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning

Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards

The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery

HFA1

Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority

HFA2

Know the Risks and Take Action

HFA3

Build Understanding and Awareness

HFA4

Reduce Risk

HFA5

Be Prepared and Ready to Act

Three Strategic Goals:

Priorities for Action:

Hyogo Framework for ActionOverall Goal:

16

JICA’s Support meet to the Priority Action

• The projects related to priority action 4 are increasing rapidly compared to others.

• It entails the best mix of structural and non-structural measures.

0 0 0 0 0 2 292 2 4 6 12

25 32

280

4

96

1525 34

81

4743

68

116

159

206

259

5 1323

4254

30

50

100

150

200

250

300

～1980 1981～1985 1985～1990 1991～1995 1996～2000 2001～2005 2006～2008

Priority 1_Ensure priority of disaster risk reduction

Priority 2_Knowing disaster risk and act

Priority 3_Improve knowledge of disaster risk reduction

Priority 4_Reduce risks

Priority 5_Prepare in advance and be ready to act for emergency

Priority 4

Priority 2

Priority 5

Priority 3

Priority 1

17

Post MDG/HFA, 2015

Sustainable Development Goals

Post-2015 Development

Agenda

HFA2

2015

Rio+20(June 2012)

SDGsOpen Working Group

HLP Report(May 2013)

SG Report(Sep 2013)

GA discussion(Sep 2013 -)

GPDRR(May 2013)

Prep-Com

Sustainable Development Goals

Post-2015 Development

Agenda

ＨＦＡ２

DR2AD Model

What is the barrier for mainstreaming the DRR

20

Disaster

DisasterDisaster

Time

Development

Obstructed byDisasters,

far away fromMDGs

Normal Development

Recovery & Developmentbut DRR investment is

much cheaper than recovery

At least,“build-back-better”

How to convince & mainstream DRR?

Need to show the evidenceto “political leaders”

• Economical Model which can measure – GDP change

– income differential and Gini coefficient change in Lorenz curve

• With & Without DRR investment

• Philosophy from Japanese experiences “DRR investment Account for Development

21

JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model to show the effectiveness of DRR investment

2013 Global Assessment Report P-87

22

GD

P

By disasters, increasing poverty and continued to be stuck in an increase in poverty, widening inequality, from the trap of poverty

Enlarged view

without disaster Effect of DRR investment

By the conventional benefit evaluation method, benefit of DRR investment is evaluated with collective amount of the society. (GRP and/or GDP)

Indicators to evaluate the entire

benefit (A)Disaster Event

With DRR Investment（with disaster）

Sustainable development

Without DRR Investment（with disaster）

Time

Stop of economic activity by direct damage⇒ Expansion of poverty

Stagnation of economic activity and the recovery delay due to lack of funds→ continuation of poverty trap

Differences with/without DRR investmentto GDP

Differences with/without DRR investment to Lorenz curve

24

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

1

0

45度線

Extreme Poor

Most Rich

Poor

Near Poor

Better Off

Incom

e C

um

ula

tive

Rela

tive

Fre

quency

Household No Cumulative Relative Frequency

Input & Output 1

25

Input & Output 2

26

Pakistan case for 2042 GDP will 25% down without DRR investment

27

Without Disaster

With DisasterWith DRR invest

Pakistan case for 2042 :Gini Coefficient proportion with or without DRR

28

MDG Targets & Indicators exemplified by DR2AD

29

Targets Indicators Exemplified by DR2AD Model

Target 1.A

Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day

1A1 Population below $1/day, %

◎It is possible to calculate the expense of each person except the number ofpeople per household, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy inthe “First Edition”.

1A6 Poverty gap ratio at $1/day, %

◎It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” byusing the rate of poverty or the Gini coefficient.

1A7 Poorest quintile's share in national income or consumption, %

◎It is possible to calculate the expense of each person by income level it ispossible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition”.

Target 1.B

Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

1B1 Growth rate of GDP per worker, %

◎It is possible to calculate the growth rate of GDP, it is possible to calculate theindicator of expectancy in the “First Edition”.

1B2 Employment-to population ratio, %

○

It is possible to estimate the growth of the population, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of employees in the lowest level of income according to the age and the population.

1B5 Proportion of workers living below $1/day, %

○

It is possible to calculate the amount of the expense of each person, it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of employees living below a dollar a day in the lowest income level.

1B6 Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment

△If the model of the industrial structure is classified in detail, it can be feasible to calculate the indicator of expectancy by improving the model.

Target 1.C

Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

1C3,4 Population undernourished,

○It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if the consumption rate of calories is converted to the rate of expense.

Target 2.A

Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

2A1 Total net enrolment rate in primary education

◎It is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” because the model is capable of taking account of human capital.

2A10 Literacy rate between 15 and 24 years old, %

○Although it is hard to correlate the level of age with the , it is possible to calculate the indicator of expectancy in the “First Edition” if it is feasible to set up the distribution of the literacy level according to the social level.

Deliver as a Computer Softwarein order everyone can use

30

Policy Brochure & Background White Paper

31

Future of DR2AD Model

32

JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, how DRR Investment Account for Development as for version 1.0

JICA wants to brush up DR2AD Model together with other agencies, using actual case study data

Collect dataset together and develop version 2.0 or more emphasized version likeStatic versionSimplified capacity building educational versionMore emphasized to poorest layers

as a DR2AD Family Series

Start discussing UNISDR to apply DR2AD Model for 20 countries

List of Participating Countries

33

Regions Countries DLD DRA DR2AD Major past disasters

IndianOcean Islands

Union des Comores ○Cyclone, Heavy rain, Earthquake

Republic of Madagascar ○ Cyclone, Drought, Earthquake

Republic of Seychelles ○ Cyclone, Storm surge

Republic of Mauritius ○Cyclone, Storm surge, Drought

Zanzibar ○

CaribbeanIslands

LatinAmerica

Asia

Africa

DLD : Disaster Risk Index dataDRA : Disaster Risk Assessment

Proposed Idea ; Frameworks of WS Trainings

34

A： Recognition of necessity of Disaster Prevention

１. Understanding the characteristics of disasters(based on DLD)

2. Analyzing socio-economic characteristics

(current and future)

3. Analyzing current and foreseeable disasterrisks(by implementation of DRA)

B：Development of and discussion on disaster prevention measures

４．Excerption of the menu of necessarymeasures

５．Development of disaster prevention measures

６．Promotion of disaster prevention measures

Training on Disaster Loss Database （DLD）

Training on Disaster Risk Assessment （DRA）

Training on DR2AD

＜UNISDR＞

＜UNISDR＞

＜JICA＞

① Basic concepts of mainstreaming DisasterPrevention Policies• Significance and Necessity• Specific examples

②Assessments of alternative measures based on DR2AD model • Goals and impacts of measures• Difference in disaster prevention effects by

combination• Setting indexes for the assessment

(Keyword: poverty, endurance)

③Handbook for mainstreaming disaster preventionpolicies.

35

Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA

Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model

for “How to Mainstream DRR” Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects

Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR”

for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for

Low Regret Investment

DRR investment is not the costbut the asset

for development

36

37

38

Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA

Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model

Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR” Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects

Handbook for “How to Mainstream DRR”

for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for

Low Regret Investment

39

4040

Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters

The integration of disaster risk reduction into sustainable development policies and planning

Development and strengthening of institutions, mechanism and capacities to build resilience to hazards

The systematic incorporation of risk reduction approaches into the implementation of emergency preparedness, response and recovery

HFA1

Make Disaster Risk Reduction a Priority

HFA2

Know the Risks and Take Action

HFA3

Build Understanding and Awareness

HFA4

Reduce Risk

HFA5

Be Prepared and Ready to Act

Three Strategic Goals:

Priorities for Action:

Hyogo Framework for ActionOverall Goal:

JICA’s another Support to Mainstreaming the National Disaster Management

• Sri Lanka– Support to Capacity Development for

“Disaster Management Center” of Sri Lanka

• Thailand– Support to Capacity development for

“Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM)”

• Indonesia– Support to National Disaster Management Plan & Regional

Disaster Management Plan throughBNPB, National Disaster Management Agency Capacity Development

• Philippines– Support Office of Civil Defense Capacity Development

41

From top down to bottom or bottom up to top

42

Central Government Support1/1=100%

Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%

Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%

Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%

How to spread whole country?

43

How to spread whole country?

Central Government Support1/1=100%

Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%

Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%

Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%

44

Proposing tools for Post MDG/HFA

Convince Policy Makerby DR2AD Model

Disaster Risk Assessment to all projects

for Lesson learned from recent mega disastersThree Principles approach for

Low Regret Investment

45

How world watching Japan

46

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development

Risk – the future. Synchronic failures and sequential

crisis ?

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development

Populations and economies exposed to tsunamis

2011 May 25 at UNHQGAR 2011 Launch & Lesson Learned & DRR

47

How about recent mega disaster?

48

• Worst ranking of economic losses– 2011 East Japan Earthquake & Tsunami

– 2005 Hurricane Katrina

– 1995 Hanshin Awaji Earthquake

– 2011 Thailand Flood

Japanese Crown Prince Visited Flooded Area

49

What happened after HFA

• Most of donors concentrated to E/W

• Most of donors escaped from challenging structure measures , like reservoir system and so on.

• All donors looks like NGO or amateur for DRR

• Where are the professional confident activities?

• JICA continuously supporting to reduce the risk

50

51

Post MDG/HFA, 2015

Future version up of DR2AD Model

• JICA developed Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, how DRR Investment Account for Development as for version 1.0

• JICA wants to brush up DR2AD Model together with other agencies, using actual case study data

• Collect dataset together and develop version 2.0 or more emphasized version like– Static version

– Simplifies capacity building version

– More emphasized to poorest layers

as a DR2AD Family Series

• Discussing UNISDR to apply DR2AD Model for 20 countries

52

2013 Global Assessment Report page 87

53

2013 Global Assessment Report page 87

54

From top down to bottom or bottom up to top

55

Central Government Support1/1=100%

Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%

Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%

Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%

How to spread whole country?

56

How to spread whole country?

Central Government Support1/1=100%

Selected Provincial Government Support1/30 = 3%

Selected Community Based DRM1/20,000 = 0.005%

Selected Municipality Government Support1/500 = 0.2%

1882

1919

1954

1996

37yeas

35years

42years

Excavation of Ara River Floodway

1911 1930

Urbanization progressed due to the improvement of the safety level by the excavation of Ara River Floodway

Former retarding basin area has also been urbanized

Metropolitan Tokyo area has developed with flood defense woks

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

River channel improvement

Widen and dredge rivers

before

after

58Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

59

Improvement of dikesBuilding and strengthening of dikes

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Costal disaster-preventionareas in Nagoya

* Where schools, hospitals, meeting grounds, public offices, welfare facilities for children, and other public architectures located in areas of Categories 2 – 4 are concerned, one or more residential spaces will be placed on the architecture with the floor height of the first floor of N・P(+) 2 m or higher, and with the height of N・P (+) 3.5 m or higher.

Atsuta Sta.

Category 2 area

Category 4 area

Category 3 area

To Nagoya Sta.

Nagoya Port

Kanayama Sta.

Article 39 of the Building Standards Act, “Disaster Hazard Areas”

Considerations of Flood Hazards in Land Use Regulations

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

61Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

In order to promote smooth evacuation actions reference to water levels for evacuation orders have been established and categorization of water levels based on risk levels have been implemented.

Levee

Houses

Flood ChannelLow Flow Channel

River

Risk level

Level

5Leve

l 4Leve

l 3

Level

1

Lev

el 2

Flooding occurs

Flooding nearly occurs

Water Level and Risk Level

Evacuation should be decided Flood is cautionaryFlood fighters act

Flood fighters stand by

Top of Levee

Information Provision for Encouraging Evacuation

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Information on the assumed flood water depth, evacuation sites, etc. is indicated in town in order to allow residents to escape safely and smoothly when a flood occurs.

This symbol indicates that the area concerned may be affected by floods.

This symbol shows a safe building that provides a shelter when a disaster occurs.

[Flood-related symbols]ＪＩＳ規格（案内用図記号） Z8210:2006

[Flood]

[Evacuation site (building)]

※現在、東京都北区（荒川）、兵庫県豊岡市（円山川）に設置

Examples of flood-related signs installed

Information on the assumed flood water depth, evacuation sites, etc. is indicated on electric poles and the walls of public facilities.

Raising Awareness on Flood Hazard

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Installation of a real time simulation system, which provides its results for forecasting of inundation depth and area based on observed data and projection of rainfall and water level of river in case of flooding is on going.

浸水深の経時変化

決壊地点の設定

破堤幅・破堤敷高の設定

決壊地点等の設定

2時間後

6時間後

12時間後

Change of inundation depth at any point

Select an arbitrary point

×

×：time of dyke break

Reinforcement of Information Provision in Emergency

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

Information provided on the internet

Information provided to mobile phonesContents

•Precipitation by hyetometer

•Precipitation by radar rain gages

•Water level etc.

Provision of River information by internet and mobile phone

Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

66

Variety of Early Warnings for Tsunami in Japan

• TV and Radio, emergency warning

• Cell phone warning for earthquake

• Registered earthquake broadcast service

• Loud speaker evacuation order to community

• others

67

Successful Evacuation by Students in Kamaishi City

(Source: Research Center for Disaster Prevention in the Extended Tokyo Metropolitan Area, Gunma University)

More than 3,000 students decided to evacuate further to higher ground based on their own decision, as educated.

68

Sad case in another area

実写奈良県

Every Natural Disaster has forerunning phenomenonthen we can predict disaster & let people evacuate

Even debris flowWe can predict

How about the magnitude of big earthquake?E/Q happens with long return period

Lesson learned of E/Q transferred to next generation?

If no, you can learn from examples

• C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

70

How about the magnitude of big earthquake

• C:\DATA\DATA\日本の知見\耐震実験\www.bosai.go.jp\hyogo\movie.html

71

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1

• Was there anything out of our mind?

The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

75

Three keys for Successful DRR

Self Supportor

Self Defense

Mutual Support

Public Support

• Was there anything out of our mind?

The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 1

77

continuous improvement to deal with changing risk

• Was there anything out of our mind?

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 2

• Was there anything out of our mind?

78

“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense

JICA’s Lesson Learned from Mega Disasterfrom 2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood 3

JICA’s Lesson Learnt from MEGA Disaster=2011 March 11, Tsunami & Thailand Flood=

• Was there anything out of our mind?

79

“multi-sector” and/or “multilayer of defense

The ability to recognize risk and take action properly

Mainstreaming Of DRMfor Sustainable Development

Capacity of societyTo cope with disaster continuous improvement to deal

with changing risk

Mainstreaming DRR to the top policy

80