japan's energy - myths versus reality

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 20131

JAPAN’S ENERGY - MYTHS VERSUS REALITY

Gerhard Fasol PhDhttp://www.eurotechnology.com/

fasol@eurotechnology.com twitter.com/gfasol

Stockholm School of Economics, (European Institute for Japanese Studies)Embassy of Sweden Tokyo, (Alfred Nobel Auditorium), June 19, 2013

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

JAPAN’S ENERGY

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•Energy and DNA•Ludwig Boltzmann’s tools and laws to work with energy•Myth vs Reality, Mantra vs Smart - psychology of judgment and decision making•Parliamentary commission result: “Regulatory capture” caused the Fukushima Accident•History: Japan’s energy structure frozen since 1952•Primary energy: 96% imported•Why Japan pays so much for LNG•Electricity architecture and liberalization•Renewable energy•Future: where do we go from here?

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

LUDWIG BOLTZMANN

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Ludwig Boltzmann created much of the laws and tools to work with energy.Some renewable electricity generation methods are directly based on Ludwig Boltzmann’s work, and all use his laws.

More:http://www.eurotechnology.com/events/ludwig-boltzmann-symposia/

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

CAUSE OF FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENTRESULT OF PARLIAMENTARY COMMISSION

CHAIRED BY KIYOSHI KUROKAWA:

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•Regulatory capture•not a Japanese phenomenon•theory of regulatory capture: George Stigler (Nobel Prize 1982) “Economic Theory of Regulation”

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 20135

Myth

Mantra

Reality

Smart

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

MANTRA VS SMART

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Merriam-Webster :

mantra = a mystical formula of invocation or incantation (as in Hinduism)

In Hinduism and Buddhism, a sacred utterance (syllable, word, or verse) believed to possess mystical or spiritual power. Mantras may be spoken aloud or uttered in thought, and they may be either repeated or sounded only once. Most have no apparent verbal meaning, but they are thought to have profound significance and to serve as distillations of spiritual wisdom. Repetition of a mantra can induce a trancelike state and can lead the participant to a higher level of spiritual awareness. Widely used mantras include om in Hinduism and om mani padme hum in Tibetan Buddhism.

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

MANTRAS - MYTHS

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•“nuclear safety” myth/mantra•“no terrorism in Japan” myth/mantra•“stable electricity supply” myth/mantra•“Fukushima nuclear accident was caused by earth quake and tsunami” myth/mantra•and more

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

DANIEL KAHNEMAN

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2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Science

Psychology of judgment and decision making

Eminent US philosopher about Daniel Kahneman: “I am not interested in the psychology of stupidity”

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

HISTORY OF JAPAN’S ELECTRICAL POWER INDUSTRY

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Year action

February 15, 1883

1893

1896

1938-1939

March 1942

May 1, 1951

March 1, 1961

Tokyo Dentou KK receives Government license, starts business in July 5,1886

Tokyo Dentou KK introduces 50Hz equipment from AEG (of Germany) Osaka Dentou KK introduces 60Hz equipment from GE (of USA)

33 electricity utility companies

700 electricity utility companies

Japan’s electricity industry nationalized

Nihon Hassouden KK (Nippatsu) created (generation + transmission)9 distribution companies

US occupation government orders dissolution of Nihon Hassouden KK (Nippatsu), 9 regional electricity monopolies created,1972 + Okinawa Power Co

construction of first Japanese nuclear power plant (Tokai Nuclear Power Plant, UK Magnox type) starts (power generation starts 1966, decommissioned in 1998)

Source: Eurotechnology-Japan Report “Japan’s Energy Sector” http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

NEW ENERGY CONTRIBUTION TO THE POWER MIX

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Before March 11, 2011, Japan’s regional power monopolies had an unwritten rule to keep “new energy” (ie. renewable energies such as wind, solar, geo-thermal, wave power, bio-mass, but excepting water power) below 1% of the power mix. Water power was excepted, and Japan’s water power contribution is on the order of 10% overall.

Hokkaido Tohoku Tepco Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu Okinawa J!Power0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.

1.2

1.4newenergygenerationcapacity!""

new energy generationcapacity before March 11, 2011

0.7"

1.3"

0.05"0.1"

0.9"

0.03" 0.02" 0.03"

1.1"

00.09"

!c"2012EurotechnologyJapanKK

www.eurotechnology.com

Source: Eurotechnology-Japan Report “Renewable Energy in Japan” http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

THIS PRESENTATION IS BASED ON THE INFORMATION IN OUR REPORTS:

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•Japan’s energy landscape•http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

•Renewable energy in Japan•http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/

The following articles are based on our reports:

•The Economist, April 8, 2013, “Life without nukes”, http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2013/04/energy •IEEE Spectrum, May 6, 2013, “Japan’s utilities suffer staggering losses”, http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/nuclear/japans-utilities-suffer-staggering-losses

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

MORE INFORMATION

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•In our blog•http://www.eurotechnology.com/news/

•Japan’s energy landscape•http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/

•Renewable energy in Japan•http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/

(c) 2013 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com “Japan’s energy - myths vs reality” Embassy of Sweden, Tokyo,, June 19, 2013

CONTACT AND MORE INFORMATION

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Contact•Gerhard Fasol PhD•Eurotechnology Japan KK, Tokyo, Japan•http://www.eurotechnology.com/ •fasol@eurotechnology.com

More information:•reports: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/ •http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_energy/•http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/ •twitter : http://twitter.com/gfasol/ •http://fasol.com